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Jabor posted:So you're backpedaling on this statement then? Sure, if it makes you feel better. The substance of the argument is the same; for it to kill that many people it would require it be completely uncontrolled for nearly a year, when it's only been about a month and numerous control measures have already been implemented. Keeping in mind that the size of the initial outbreak was also a result of the CCP for all intents and purposes intentionally spreading it for 2 months.
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Mar 3, 2020 05:40
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The virus also persists on surfaces and you start shedding the virus after a day or two of being infected, so you touch something and infect it and soon after someone else touches that surface and then later rubs their eye and now they are infected too. Also Dr John was saying it's possible that the virus is airborne to some extent so that means you can breathe the virus onto someone as well as coughing or sneezing it out in droplets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4FLqWw0CbQ
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Mar 3, 2020 05:40
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Helith posted:The virus also persists on surfaces and you start shedding the virus after a day or two of being infected, so you touch something and infect it and soon after someone else touches that surface and then later rubs their eye and now they are infected too. This isn't unique to 2019-nCoV, this is standard for pretty much every virus. Wash your hands and don't put your fingers in your faceholes if you can help it. It's important to note that the maximum rates of transmission also assume that people barely ever wash their hands, surfaces never get cleaned, and people keep sticking their fingers in their orifaces. A statistically significant increase in handwashing and surface cleaning by itself will lower the transmission rate considerably. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Mar 3, 2020 |
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Mar 3, 2020 05:43
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me: hundreds will die stannis, probably: thousands
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Mar 3, 2020 05:43
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Fojar38 posted:Sure, if it makes you feel better. The substance of the argument is the same; for it to kill that many people it would require it be completely uncontrolled for nearly a year, when it's only been about a month and numerous control measures have already been implemented. "Less than a year" and "several years" seem like very different things to me! Given that everyone called you out about not understanding exponential growth, it seems like they were probably correct. Several other nations also seem to be following the "stick our head in the sand and pretend it's not happening here" gameplan, so we'll see how effective that is at actually getting things under control.
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Mar 3, 2020 05:45
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Jabor posted:"Less than a year" and "several years" seem like very different things to me! Nice job completely ignoring the argument in favor of "gotcha!" pedantry. Do you genuinely think that nothing is happening right now to mitigate its spread, to the point where we are going to have 1 million deaths by November?
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Mar 3, 2020 05:49
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really the growth has fractal substructure, like the steps to the devils staircase (cantor function). singularity looking periods of exponential growth and then lulls. you can then claim both the number actually infected and the number tested and confirmed and the discrepancy between the two go that way, because they would be fractal distributions and levy stable because of this
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Mar 3, 2020 05:52
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I wish there were more sources on the outbreak data that excluded Chinese reporting because as it stands most publicly available sources require assuming Chinese statistics are legit (they aren't, especially as the CCP starts to view the outbreak as less of a public health issue and more as a political issue)
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Mar 3, 2020 06:10
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What does the CCP have to gain by lieing about disease statistics?
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Mar 3, 2020 06:13
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does the CCP have to gain by lieing about disease statistics? You mean aside from preserving its own power and legitimacy? What did they have to gain by covering it up for 2 months?
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Mar 3, 2020 06:16
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Facebook Aunt posted:Lifehack: start wearing mascara. The really thick, clumpy stuff. Feels really weird on your fingers when you go to rub your eyes, so it helps you remember not to do that. You can't fool me. You're just trying to start a Mad Max apocalypse cult. I'm sure you've got "sensible" reasons for us to put spikes on our cars, too.
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Mar 3, 2020 06:16
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does the CCP have to gain by lieing about disease statistics? 100 social credit points
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Mar 3, 2020 06:16
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Why does anyone need toilet paper if they're gonna be stuck at home on lockdown? Just have a shower after a poo poo, it's not like you have anywhere to be.
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Mar 3, 2020 06:27
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Tree Bucket posted:You can't fool me. You're just trying to start a Mad Max apocalypse cult. No, no you've got me all wrong. And I totally don't have a fetish for straight dudes in makeup, either.
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Mar 3, 2020 06:27
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Facebook Aunt posted:No, no you've got me all wrong. And I totally don't have a fetish for straight dudes in makeup, either. That's exactly what someone with a fetish for straight dudes in makeup would say to trick straight dudes into wearing makeup.
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Mar 3, 2020 06:41
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Facebook Aunt posted:No, no you've got me all wrong. And I totally don't have a fetish for straight dudes in makeup, either. A majestic usernname-post combo. Laserface posted:Why does anyone need toilet paper if they're gonna be stuck at home on lockdown? I want to refute this, but I can't, and it is very upsetting.
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Mar 3, 2020 07:02
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Laserface posted:Why does anyone need toilet paper if they're gonna be stuck at home on lockdown? I know!!
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Mar 3, 2020 07:17
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does the CCP have to gain by lieing about disease statistics? The CCP economy is basically held together by people believing that it won't either abscond with all their profits or implode into a series of mutually hostile mini-Chinas that will spend the next 40 years fighting over who gets to be in charge this time. Any information which suggests that China is NOT a safe investment accelerates their inevitable fracture back into Wu, Wei and Shu.
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Mar 3, 2020 07:28
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MOVIE MAJICK posted:What does the CCP have to gain by lieing about disease statistics? When has gaining nothing ever stopped communist regimes from lying about anything and everything.
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Mar 3, 2020 07:41
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The first rule of politics is deny the truth and then tell a lie, and then figure out how to benefit from the lie Modern mass media politics is so far beyond "all politicians lie" that any fact or event is automatically denied and twisted for maximum political advantage As a politician, agreeing with a fact is like bringing a knife to a gun fight
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Mar 3, 2020 07:54
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The US recently figured out that if you don't test anybody, nobody has the virus. The news this week will indicate that it is 100% contained and safe to shop. Millions will die, but it will be chalked up to an unusually bad flu year, bro
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Mar 3, 2020 08:46
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I don't know how much the Shincheonji Church of Jesus has come up in the thread but apparently the Korean government is looking into prosecuting the second coming of Christ.
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Mar 3, 2020 08:55
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I'm freaking out a bit. I like in a predominantly Chinese neighbourhood and I've been taking precautions like not touching my face and using hand sanitizer/ washing hands often etc. Since a week ago I've been feeling slight run down with a sore throat. This week I've been coughing a lot and finding it hard to breathe. I'm a bit worried so I went to the doctor. I told him the above and he seemed worried and took samples for a test. I asked if he would check for coronavirus but he flat our refused. Instead he told me some garbage about having a virus to do with immune deficiency and that it's extremely common. I'm convinced this is a government coverup and they don't want to increase the statistics for fear of panic.
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Mar 3, 2020 08:56
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It blows me away how similar the posts are here to posts on reddit and such during the Obama administration. Which one of you is gonna take over a bird sanctuary?
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Mar 3, 2020 09:36
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salt shakeup posted:I'm freaking out a bit. I like in a predominantly Chinese neighbourhood and I've been taking precautions like not touching my face and using hand sanitizer/ washing hands often etc. Since a week ago I've been feeling slight run down with a sore throat. This week I've been coughing a lot and finding it hard to breathe. I'm a bit worried so I went to the doctor. I told him the above and he seemed worried and took samples for a test. I asked if he would check for coronavirus but he flat our refused. Instead he told me some garbage about having a virus to do with immune deficiency and that it's extremely common. I'm convinced this is a government coverup and they don't want to increase the statistics for fear of panic. poe's law
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Mar 3, 2020 09:37
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VikingSkull posted:It blows me away how similar the posts are here to posts on reddit and such during the Obama administration.
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Mar 3, 2020 09:39
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So if you know someone is infected and then they fart and you smell the fart does that mean you're infected now?
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Mar 3, 2020 10:03
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I enjoy Fojar now suddenly being a virus expert as well, along with everything else. I guess it goes with the general "yellow peril" theme, makes sense you'd branch out.
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Mar 3, 2020 10:03
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Captain Beans posted:“with a 90% uncertainty interval” is an interesting phrase It means they are 90% certain it's between 90 and 1500 with the strongest likelyhood it's 570.
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Mar 3, 2020 10:04
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Fojar38 posted:I wish there were more sources on the outbreak data that excluded Chinese reporting because as it stands most publicly available sources require assuming Chinese statistics are legit (they aren't, especially as the CCP starts to view the outbreak as less of a public health issue and more as a political issue) The same is true of the US, really. US and Chinese numbers shouldn't be trusted on anything. US culture is mainly driven by the idea of "saving face", which is why the white house just sent out a press release with collected Tweets that praise Trump's response. It's also why the CDC was directed to hide the number of deaths and is not testing people.
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Mar 3, 2020 10:08
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Lambert posted:The same is true of the US, really. US and Chinese numbers shouldn't be trusted on anything. It's not really 'saving face' in the usual sense in the US, it's fear of looking like you've hosed up and getting voted out as a consequence.
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Mar 3, 2020 10:17
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Is that why Trump had people praise his golf-playing ability as well? Because he feared people would vote him out if they knew he's bad at golf? I think this is mainly an ego thing for Trump in general, fear of getting voted out is just another part of it but not the whole equation.
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Mar 3, 2020 10:20
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FWIW, I just threw the official information that informs German policy into machine translation. Just to give some perspective:Roland Koch Institut posted:The RKI already pointed out in mid-February that global developments suggest that the virus could spread worldwide in the form of a pandemic. Massive efforts at all levels of the Public Health Service have so far pursued the goal of detecting individual infections in Germany as early as possible and thus delaying the further spread of the virus as much as possible. Btw., I made the mistake of looking into Reddit and there are apparently several subreddits dedicated to furiously speculating on what German officials are saying, but since none of them apparently speak German they are mostly talking about how the German government is trying to suppress any news about the outbreak?  I wonder how big the overlap between conspiracy theorists and the virus subreddits is…
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Mar 3, 2020 10:23
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Antigravitas posted:
95%+ not even joking Edit: if you have to ask, you're an unwitting conspiracy theorist
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Mar 3, 2020 10:28
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This thread itself has a non-insignificant overlap with the conspiracy theory subreddits
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Mar 3, 2020 10:33
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Vegetable posted:This thread itself has a non-insignificant overlap with the conspiracy theory subreddits what on earth is going on in your avatar? it looks like a pole turning into a lamp inside an elevator shaft or some poo poo
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Mar 3, 2020 10:42
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sandwiches_and_ham posted:what on earth is going on in your avatar? it looks like a pole turning into a lamp inside an elevator shaft or some poo poo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQJH-zUYOoc
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Mar 3, 2020 10:46
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Vegetable posted:This thread itself has a non-insignificant overlap with the conspiracy theory subreddits we're like two days away from FEMA death camps and Wal-Mart detention center posts
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Mar 3, 2020 10:46
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Hadlock posted:95%+ not even joking The weirdest (and dumbest) recurring pattern I've seen:
Antigravitas fucked around with this message at 11:17 on Mar 3, 2020 |
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Mar 3, 2020 11:03
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i was right bout the elevator shaft  meanwhile, OMG people are dying!
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Mar 3, 2020 11:11
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