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"SS will collapse before you can use it" is right-wing propaganda to undermine support for Social Security.
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Mar 4, 2020 15:58
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Then they’re betting wrongly. That doesn’t make me likely to vote for getting rid of it - that makes me likely to vote for improving it.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:00
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Academician Nomad posted:"SS will collapse before you can use it" is right-wing propaganda to undermine support for Social Security. Definitely has the exact opposite effect for me.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:02
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can you imagine if mother fuckers were able to invest their social security in the market like has been proposed a trillion times
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Mar 4, 2020 16:06
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The idea is if enough people yell about SS collapsing then they can play the "adult in the room" card and try to cut benefits instead of raise taxes on the wealthy.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:07
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:can you imagine if mother fuckers were able to invest their social security in the market like has been proposed a trillion times Someone did the math and the US government would own basically all public companies by now.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:15
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KillHour posted:Someone did the math and the US government would own basically all public companies by now. 
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Mar 4, 2020 16:26
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KillHour posted:Someone did the math and the US government would own basically all public companies by now. 
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Mar 4, 2020 16:28
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What an intriguing timeline that would be.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:35
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:can you imagine if mother fuckers were able to invest their social security in the market like has been proposed a trillion times Or just uncap income the ss tax so it applies to all income but keep benefits capped.
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Mar 4, 2020 16:53
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So I have a traditional 401k (taxed on distribution) and also Roth IRA (not taxed on distribution). If I'm holding long term, would it be tax advantageous to have my riskier/higher return/equity assets in the Roth accounts, and my lower return/bonds in the Trad401k? Or does it not make a difference compared to a having similar portfolio balance in both? It seems like it would be better to split.
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Mar 4, 2020 17:48
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totalnewbie posted:Or just uncap income the ss tax so it applies to all income but equalize benefits. Also Pollyanna the whole owning a house thing can be seen as a hedge against rising rents in retirement. As long as you stay put and on top of maintenance.
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Mar 4, 2020 17:49
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esquilax posted:If I'm holding long term, would it be tax advantageous to have my riskier/higher return/equity assets in the Roth accounts, and my lower return/bonds in the Trad401k?
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Mar 4, 2020 18:00
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esquilax posted:So I have a traditional 401k (taxed on distribution) and also Roth IRA (not taxed on distribution). Probably! All else being equal, yes. But with 401ks not all else is equal. This may be impacted by the quality of options you have in the trad 401k. For example, my trad 403b's bond options have a MUCH higher expense ratio than the total stock market index fund that's on offer there. Since avoiding expenses is one of the few ways to guarantee an improvement in returns, I'm choosing to forgo the bonds in the trad 403b, and lean into the low expense ratio index fund.
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Mar 4, 2020 19:03
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totalnewbie posted:Or just uncap income the ss tax so it applies to all income but keep benefits capped. And tax the people more than likely don't need to depend on SS income for their retirement? That's crazy talk
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Mar 4, 2020 20:39
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Social security deposits are used to buy US government bonds. If someone tried to totally end the program, that would remove the world's largest and most important purchaser of US government debt, in an era in which we are borrowing more than ever before. The consequent drop in demand and therefore rise in interest rates necessary to attract buyers would probably push the government into insolvency instantly. It just can't be done, basically. Any fuckery with SS will therefore be gradual/incremental. And given that the elderly remain the segment that turns out to vote the most, I don't think it's really ever going to happen. The boomers might try to "fix" SS by lowering payouts only for the following generation, but by the time that following generation is retiring (and the boomers are dying off and have lost their voting power), they'll be in a position to restore those payouts. There is no issue with more solid bipartisan support than support for the entitlement programs that benefit the old, no matter what generation of old people you look at. The most likely fixes that would actually stick around are increased taxes on the young. e. here's a decent rundown: https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/07/03/heres-why-our-national-debt-isnt-a-concern-for-soc.aspx Although this writer doesn't point out that just cashing in its bonds to pay out its obligations as we approach insolvency means reducing the government's ability to sell debt. So the two factors are intrinsically linked, and eventually cannot be ignored. Congress may continue to "kick the can down the street" by making stopgap decisions, but one thing it really can't do without plunging the US government into an insolvency crisis, is just let SS wind down its holdings to pay out obligations for another 20 years. Not "can't" as in shouldn't, but literally can not do that. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 22:18 on Mar 4, 2020 |
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Mar 4, 2020 22:14
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Leperflesh posted:Social security deposits are used to buy US government bonds. If someone tried to totally end the program, that would remove the world's largest and most important purchaser of US government debt, in an era in which we are borrowing more than ever before. The consequent drop in demand and therefore rise in interest rates necessary to attract buyers would probably push the government into insolvency instantly. It just can't be done, basically.
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Mar 4, 2020 22:15
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Hoodwinker posted:But what if I want something to be mad about??? I mean, the system's growing problems are absolutely due to the inaction of congress and by extension the Republicans who hate the entitlement programs (despite their base actually loving loving them when asked about in specific terms like 'do you like social security' and 'do you like medicare') and the Democrats who hate cutting benefits (despite the fact that the elderly who receive those benefits are the one demographic bloc remaining that consistently votes republican no matter how much they depend on Democratic-supported Republican-opposed programs and services). So that's a thing to be really mad about. But I say if you're doing retirement planning, you should assume social security will pay out to you, and hedge against the likelihood that it will pay out less, or start retirement at a later age, by discounting your calculated payout by some comfortable percentage. Say, 25% less or so, which would be a sufficient cut to keep SS solvent permanently.
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Mar 4, 2020 22:22
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Hoodwinker posted:But what if I want something to be mad about??? How about the fact that the rest of retirement savings system depends on people making individual decisions where the mathematically best outcomes involve doing things that run counter to all human intuition, while leaving individuals at the mercy of financial advisors and snake oil salesmen who have no duty of care to giving good advice?
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Mar 4, 2020 22:25
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I always found it weird that my wife doesn't pay into Social Security as a teacher. Just the state pension fund. Then people complain that teacher pensions are too big and they should be taken away, which would essentially leave them with nothing for retirement, because like the first 20 years of teaching you don't make enough money to actually save for retirement with the assumption that are getting this really nice pension when they retire
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Mar 4, 2020 23:37
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Astro7x posted:I always found it weird that my wife doesn't pay into Social Security as a teacher. Just the state pension fund. Then people complain that teacher pensions are too big and they should be taken away, which would essentially leave them with nothing for retirement, because like the first 20 years of teaching you don't make enough money to actually save for retirement with the assumption that are getting this really nice pension when they retire Right people don't realize teachers are waiving their Social Security by buying into the pension, which is better than Social but like it's not as nice as people assume. People also never account for all the prep work, correcting, and dealing with parents that teachers do. After having a bunch of teachers in my family I knew drat well I did not want to teach for a living they are all miserable and have almost no free time. Teachers have it rough. I do IT, people think I'm a wizard I've been asked if I've heard the did you go to school at Hogwarts for computers joke, it's bad.
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Mar 5, 2020 01:06
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pixaal posted:Right people don't realize teachers are waiving their Social Security by buying into the pension, which is better than Social but like it's not as nice as people assume. People also never account for all the prep work, correcting, and dealing with parents that teachers do. After having a bunch of teachers in my family I knew drat well I did not want to teach for a living they are all miserable and have almost no free time. Teachers have it rough. I do IT, people think I'm a wizard I've been asked if I've heard the did you go to school at Hogwarts for computers joke, it's bad. I did not realize this, but I also don't complain about teacher pensions and whatever nonsense people believe about teachers that is extremely untrue.
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Mar 5, 2020 06:24
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I came back from teaching in Japan and thought, hey, that was alright, maybe I'll consider teaching. Then I realized that I didn't want to go back to school for a few years, get into (more) debt, and come out to have evenings taken up by grading homework, all so I can make less than half I could as an engineer without jumping through all those hoops. Maybe I would have been a great teacher, maybe I would have been awful. But we'll never know because I, and a lot of other people, won't even consider it because the incentives are just totally, totally backwards. totalnewbie fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Mar 5, 2020 |
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Mar 5, 2020 06:55
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Yeah, a friend of mine is a teacher. In Ohio, you have to get your master's within ten years of getting your teaching license or you forfeit it (or something like that). So she gets her master's, then the recession hits and they have to agree to a pay freeze for years keeping pay low. Then Kasich signs a bill to basically kill public employee collective bargaining (which voters then overturned via referendum later in the year). Meanwhile my friend is in a bunch of debt from all of her schooling because of the pay freeze on top of teacher pay. On multiple occasions, I'd see on Facebook that she'd comment on a post from the developers of some app. It was basically some kind of program teachers could sign up for to help with their student loans. You basically got on a wait list and thanks to contributions people people/organizations, hopefully at some point you'd get help paying off the mountain of debt that your poo poo salary can't put a dent in. It sucks that people expect civil servants to be in it solely for helping people, and not expected to get paid appropriately. My wife works at the county Job & Family Services and they get the same poo poo. Pay is nothing to write home about and the "wonderful benefits" civil servants are supposed to have get worse each year.
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Mar 5, 2020 18:32
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33% through the book. From what I’ve learned from reading it, and by using some play money in E*TRADE to test some theories, the conclusion I draw is that there is no such thing as fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies.
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Mar 5, 2020 18:48
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Are there any experts with US citizen expat/immigrant finance? I'm wondering what I should do with an old 401k that I haven't thought about in 5 years. I didn't know much about finance then, and just used the default fund that has an exp ratio of 0.35% net. It's through Fidelity, and should I roll it over to something like FXAIX, FSLAX etc? It's also a little tricky because I'm not a US resident anymore. I'm contributing to retirement in Sweden, and that's where I have a target retirement fund, index funds and pension. Because I don't live in the US I'm not allowed to have a US brokerage account. I still have my old brokerage account with Schwab, and they said they were going to shut it down, but nothing happened. I've talked to some other Americans here and they said it's a 'don't ask, don't tell' situation. However, if I rollover the 401k to a Fidelity IRA, would this be considered a brokerage account, and therefore be shut down?
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Mar 5, 2020 18:59
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Pollyanna posted:33% through the book. From what I’ve learned from reading it, and by using some play money in E*TRADE to test some theories, the conclusion I draw is that there is no such thing as fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies. welcome to the realities of capitalism as a non-millionaire
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Mar 5, 2020 19:01
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Pollyanna posted:33% through the book. From what I’ve learned from reading it, and by using some play money in E*TRADE to test some theories, the conclusion I draw is that there is no such thing as fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies. You're getting it! The financial industry, as it exists for the common person, is an obfuscation device for taking your loving money. Unless you're lucky or have an inside connection, the only way to acquire wealth is to get rich slowly (which, frankly, also takes a lot of luck).
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Mar 5, 2020 19:03
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Killing your wealthy parents is fast money.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:05
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Boy, I’m feeling a cough coming on. 😷 Not a Children posted:You're getting it! P much. This is...basically the perception I had at the beginning  except that to beat inflation I need to invest in some manner regardless.MockingQuantum posted:welcome to the realities of capitalism as a non-millionaire 
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Mar 5, 2020 19:15
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GI_Clutch posted:It sucks that people expect civil servants to be in it solely for helping people, and not expected to get paid appropriately. We have this amendment which abolished the "civil slave" class of positions, so "civil servant" is the next closest thing moneyed people have to work with. They're doing what they can.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:22
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Holy poo poo, this thread is still alive. Uh...how badly has the stuff I wrote in the OP 12 years ago aged?
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Mar 5, 2020 19:27
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"[panic posted:" post="503034284"]
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Mar 5, 2020 19:28
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Hoodwinker posted:Honestly, people still recommend a lot of the reading in it. Wow. That's honestly pretty cool.
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Mar 5, 2020 19:29
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Pollyanna posted:P much. This is...basically the perception I had at the beginning You know how people say that people who know nothing about the civil war think it was about slavery, people who know a little about the civil war think it was about state's rights, and people who know a lot about the civil war think it was about slavery? Knowledge of the financial industry works the same way, except slavery is "salespeople stealing your money" and state's rights is "beating the market"
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Mar 5, 2020 19:30
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"[panic posted:" post="503034351"]
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Mar 5, 2020 19:31
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"[panic posted:" post="503034351"] Since you're here: maybe we could spend some time ITT doing an edit pass & refresh. I think most of the links and sources are still good, but we could add some more? For the regulars in the thread: what are some new books/resources/etc folks are using lately?
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Mar 5, 2020 19:56
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Flowchart should be in OP
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Mar 5, 2020 20:00
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Big rear end flashing red text that says "DON'T TIME THE MARKET"
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Mar 5, 2020 20:02
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Pollyanna posted:33% through the book. From what I’ve learned from reading it, and by using some play money in E*TRADE to test some theories, the conclusion I draw is that there is no such thing as fast money. There is slow money, and then there are dirty lies. It’s been a super long time since I read it, but have you gotten to the part of how and why stocks are priced? I feel like that’s a big part of feeling comfortable with investing. If you already knew that disregard. It’s just that I talk to a bunch people about what a stock is, at the base level, and maybe two people I know understand it, including all of the boomers I know close to retirement. I’d be scared shitless all the time about my 401k if I didn’t understand.
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Mar 5, 2020 20:03
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