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fougera posted:Yea it's why the correct permabear trade was long eurodollar futures. Straight loving line up. Ancillary but nat gas seems like a better bet. I’ve been averaging down into the Russia etf as my oil/nat gas play (also a short dollar play, feel like it offsets US exposure some). Still seems better to me always with oil to wait for a trend to turn and miss the first 10% move. If it drops to $25 seems safe to go long but there’s no rush right now. Mostly I’ve been sitting in cash and sold covered calls on most of my portfolio. Selling naked calls is the way to go right now if you need to trade but you could definitely get killed and I’m a big scaredy cat.
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Mar 6, 2020 14:57
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Pollyanna posted:Well, true. 08 sucked. But hey, if rampant capitalism is gonna faceplant, I might as well scavenge the debris https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7eYcWpgCb7o Doccykins fucked around with this message at 15:03 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 14:57
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:If you’re a permabear you make money in a crash but otherwise even if you’re rooting against it if you weren’t short on February 20th at the latest I almost guarantee you will end up worse off over the next 6 months even if you don’t get laid off or die. There’s a lot of chop going down and head fakes and you will not trade it right. Ya this is right. You should just buy volatility when it is cheap. A lot of people hate doing that then get crushed spikes like these but VIX options were extremely cheap since november. It is a good way to have some protection. Also you should always have something in your portfolio that goes up no matter what happens. I am fine with bonds rallying because I do hold TLT and I also have precious metals. If you only have risk on equities this late into the cycle well that is your own fault.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:05
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fougera posted:This could be peak VIX, what do you think? Or is it better to just take a shot at SPY calls here? I bought VIX puts on 2/24 but I think those will get to 60-80% loss before they turn profitable; if they turn profitable SPY posted:292.55 VIX posted:48.29 But I don't think we've hit the peak VIX. The v-shaped dip pretty solidly isn't happening, so now we may be coming back to earth and have P/E numbers to work with. Best performance in '08 preceding the crash was in May. May 1st S&P opened at 1385.97 with a P/E ratio of 25.81. The crash got down to 666.79, which is the equivalent P/E of 12. (Earnings also dropped before we hit that low, so the effective P/E at the low was 110.37!) We're in the same territory of P/E at the high with 25.01 on Feb 1st. If we dropped to a P/E of 14 on current earnings (which is the all time historical mean P/E of the S&P), then it'd be at 1811.24. Getting to 12 would put us at 1552.49
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Mar 6, 2020 15:11
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Gonna reroll my VIX and TLT calls for next. This is great way to play the short term downside momentum and find oversold stocks for long term. Been killing it this month this trade.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:15
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Mar 6, 2020 15:19
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The FOMO and temptation to chase are so intense right now.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:24
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fougera posted:The FOMO and temptation to chase are so intense right now. No poo poo. Firing puts is working non stop
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Mar 6, 2020 15:29
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Honestly, I wouldn’t. The market can’t be timed or taken advantage of, it can only take advantage of you. It’s a force stronger than an individual, and it should be treated as such. Nobody but the craziest surfers try to surf in a tsunami, why would stonks be any different?
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Mar 6, 2020 15:30
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LOL at Jim Cramer ringing the bell on such a poo poo day
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Mar 6, 2020 15:31
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There's only one good trade here. Long Bitcoin
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Mar 6, 2020 15:41
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https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/06/norwegian-airlines-shares-plummet-as-coronavirus-hammers-travel-sector NAS massively oversold here, 70% compared to 25% on the sector, Norweigan government likely to prop it up or part nationalise it. Worth a punt imo, target 1.80
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Mar 6, 2020 15:42
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Holy gently caress options are super loving expensive. A LOT of people are gonna be completely correct on where the market goes monday and lose a shitload of money to IV crush.
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Mar 6, 2020 15:45
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jokes posted:Holy gently caress options are super loving expensive. A LOT of people are gonna be completely correct on where the market goes monday and lose a shitload of money to IV crush. yup, its 3x time or playing vol e: or selling calls if you're balls out e2: why are the airlines holding up? Woodchip fucked around with this message at 15:58 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 15:53
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IV on 13 April vs. 9 April and 17 April on any index with weeklies... SPY, NDX... Somethings up here.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:05
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Kudlow is on Bloomberg right now so I am once again reminded this guy is a government official now  Also even he is saying growth is likely to slow and he has been nonstop “things can only go up up up!” for the past... forever? That was his whole thing on CNBC they would just cut to him ranting about how great free market capitalism is once or twice a day.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:05
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:IV on 13 April vs. 9 April and 17 April on any index with weeklies... SPY, NDX... Somethings up here. Can you explain this a little more? Aka should I be shorting the VIX here, particularly looking 1-2 months out? Fed is probably cutting again very soon; if we play for that intraday dive we saw the other day, could be a good trade?
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Mar 6, 2020 16:07
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Ehm bonds are certainly not overbought. Selling TLT otm weeklies for 1000% gains feels weird.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:09
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TLT pushing 170, this is making 2008 look like childs play. Time to refi the house if I have a job next week! e: nclh long is cash money
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Mar 6, 2020 16:12
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Every day I play chicken with my TLT position and every day I've shrugged my shoulders an held on but jfc.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:12
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:IV on 13 April vs. 9 April and 17 April on any index with weeklies... SPY, NDX... Somethings up here. Primary completion of Remdesivir trails is April 3.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:15
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Woodchip posted:e2: why are the airlines holding up? This is running at various places https://www.marketwatch.com/story/warren-buffetts-big-bet-on-airlines-could-have-lost-nearly-3-billion-in-3-weeks-2020-03-05 Basically Warren Buffet owned a lot of airlines before this, and he's doubling down and buying them "cheap" and encouraging others to do so.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:16
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The whole travel sector catching a bid today... Could this signal a short term bottom.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:17
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fougera posted:Can you explain this a little more? Aka should I be shorting the VIX here, particularly looking 1-2 months out? Fed is probably cutting again very soon; if we play for that intraday dive we saw the other day, could be a good trade? Right now, puts on VIX-oriented funds and poo poo are absurdly... I would be hesitant to say "cheap" but lower than they've been in a while and aren't nearly as susceptible to theta poo poo, partly as a consequence. I decided, once I sold my puts, to buy some VIX puts yesterday and am down like 15% but they were like a dollar, so I'm not too beat up about it. VIX is high as gently caress right now and nobody likes it in my opinion, but if the selloff continues you'd be hosed. It's a risky one, but with a far enough expiry and the desperation of the fed I don't feel too scared about holding them. e: Sorry, I put "calls" when I meant "puts" because I'm an idiot and a double negative fucks my brain up jokes fucked around with this message at 16:21 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 16:18
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pixaal posted:This is running at various places srsly, that UAL chart is straight up long TMV, this bond rally is ridic
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Mar 6, 2020 16:20
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VIX only got to about 60 at the height of the financial crisis, which I think most people would speculate was systemically worse than a nasty cold. To the contrary, I guess a lot of people arent appreciating just how overheated this market was on a very broad basis which gives us a lot of room to the downside without being 'unreasonable'. If you're starting to think something like TGT looks cheap, just remember it was in the 50s about 18 months ago- keep perspective. Anyways, gently caress this market. Edit: im wrong vix got to drat near 90 intraday and closed in the 80s multiple times. Bad memory, shouldve looked it up greasyhands fucked around with this message at 23:47 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 16:22
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Comrayn posted:Kudlow is on Bloomberg right now so I am once again reminded this guy is a government official now Larry "Don't go to Seattle" Kudlow
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Mar 6, 2020 16:23
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fougera posted:Can you explain this a little more? Aka should I be shorting the VIX here, particularly looking 1-2 months out? Fed is probably cutting again very soon; if we play for that intraday dive we saw the other day, could be a good trade? I don't have a trade: But the implied volatility for 13 APR 20 on SPY is 29.72% vs on 9 APR 20 its 45.26% and on 17 APR 20 its 43.96%. On NDX: 9 APR 20 47.67%, 13 APR 20 24.93%, 17 APR 46.44% Like, why the dip on vol for this day in particular?
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Mar 6, 2020 16:28
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I don't have a trade: But the implied volatility for 13 APR 20 on SPY is 29.72% vs on 9 APR 20 its 45.26% and on 17 APR 20 its 43.96%. On NDX: 9 APR 20 47.67%, 13 APR 20 24.93%, 17 APR 46.44% If it's a weekly, there's a lot more volume which coincides with a lot more volatility.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:29
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IV for ATM april puts is mid 40s across the board, I think you just have a screwy quote or something
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Mar 6, 2020 16:35
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Interesting drop on gld.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:36
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My guess would be 13 April 20 reflects expectations of a huge Fed liquidity injection to cover tax time.
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Mar 6, 2020 16:37
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Woodchip posted:Interesting drop on gld. Not really, it is just overbought in the short term. I do have some puts as protection and sold GDX which was behaving awful in this whole rally. Now I will get rid of most of my SLV and transition into names with divi. The more interesting drop on gold was last week when market was hard selling off and gold sold off even harder. So far today market is rallying so TLT/GLD are coming down from their highs. Ulio fucked around with this message at 16:52 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 16:44
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wading into oil a little today with OXY and CPE, Ill be holding these for a year or so
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Mar 6, 2020 17:26
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greasyhands posted:wading into oil a little today with OXY and CPE, Ill be holding these for a year or so Can't keep you away, huh?  I get it, these are the kinds of days that feel like weeks.
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Mar 6, 2020 17:30
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I added more MOMO yesterday. Gambling on the coronavirus not affecting it that much. Earnings on the 19th. Hopefully my Huya goes up with it too.
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Mar 6, 2020 17:30
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greasyhands posted:wading into oil a little today with OXY and CPE, Ill be holding these for a year or so Lol 1 week
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Mar 6, 2020 17:35
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Hey I said I would still be managing my accounts, I was just done with the short term high risk swing trading. I like to think of myself as entering the Buffett era of my trading career
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 17:48 on Mar 6, 2020 |
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Mar 6, 2020 17:45
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Just wrote some SPY 291 puts expiring at the end of the day for $1.00.
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Mar 6, 2020 18:04
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My 9/30 SPY put at 310 has doubled in value. Wasn't there a big post recently on taking your wins and playing with the house money or something?
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Mar 6, 2020 18:29
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