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Bored As gently caress posted:Same. I have $2300 in my Robinhood account, but around 40 in my 401k. And I'm hosed if another crash happens and it impacts the pension fund I'll be relying on in another 25 or so years. Unless I put $10k into some amazing bets and turn it into $500k, if a crash happens I'm hosed. And I don't have 10k, nor am I willing to bet that much. For me, at least, I got lucky and haven't bought stocks in a good long while and decided to start buying stocks for this year right when things started really going to poo poo, so while my portfolio is in the red I'm feeling pretty good about long-term poo poo, especially since I'm making great gains on my stupid bets during these volatile times. Still, like, I think a lot of people bought SPY puts weeks ago and are truly, truly disappointed that it's not at 250 or something. Like, bud, stock market drops ruin lives. Gambling is fun though! Keep it light-hearted, reddit, gently caress. What won't they ruin?
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Mar 7, 2020 23:02
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Bored As gently caress posted:Same. I have $2300 in my Robinhood account, but around 40 in my 401k. And I'm hosed if another crash happens and it impacts the pension fund I'll be relying on in another 25 or so years. Unless I put $10k into some amazing bets and turn it into $500k, if a crash happens I'm hosed. And I don't have 10k, nor am I willing to bet that much. Are you saying that a current crash will negatively impact you 25 years from now or that if there's a crash exactly when you're trying to retire that you'll be hosed then? I mean that's sort of the undeniable truth for most everyone attempting to retire at that specific time. Even a 40k/zero contribution 401k for 25 years at 8% is a quarter mil. Not amazing but nothing to scoff at either (assuming you have a non-nuked pension).
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Mar 7, 2020 23:06
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Its also not like they hand you a comically large check with your entire 401k balance at market price when you retire. Ideally you're pulling from it the same way you bought into it. Sure you spend it faster but its still ideally over at least a couple decades, and even leaving some behind!
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Mar 7, 2020 23:42
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TheKevman posted:Are you saying that a current crash will negatively impact you 25 years from now or that if there's a crash exactly when you're trying to retire that you'll be hosed then? I mean that's sort of the undeniable truth for most everyone attempting to retire at that specific time. A little of both, actually. I remember reading that some states and localities reduced pension benefits after 2008, and I worry about that. I worry that a true recession could force municipalities to reduce benefits for those who either, 1) haven't entered the municipal/state workforce yet, 2) haven't retired yet (me) or 2) even those who have retired already. I have significant doubts that the state's pension system (much less my municipalities') as it currently stands would remain solvent during a major recession, much less a depression. And 8% I think is a little optimistic, but yeah, you're right.
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Mar 8, 2020 00:02
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Still seems better to me always with oil to wait for a trend to turn and miss the first 10% move. If it drops to $25 seems safe to go long but there’s no rush right now. Want to revise this to $10 and also say you’re probably safe to short everything in the world on Monday.
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Mar 8, 2020 02:46
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I've been thinking about buying up a bunch of CCL and hang onto it until this whole thing blows over........ Then I can say I cruised to some easy gains!!! 
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Mar 8, 2020 03:27
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WSB has kinda been depressing lately but this is hilarious lol. Trump as Gollem and Buffet as Gandalf is on point.
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Mar 8, 2020 04:25
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Pollyanna posted:I already apologized and realize how hosed up it is to believe that, the conversation is over. I'll grant you that mea culpa, but on the other hand, you seem to be running with the CSPAM crowd that is actively rooting for an economic collapse that will 100% hurt the most economically vulnerable and cause real human suffering. The idea that economic collapse hurts the 0.001% but doesn't hurt the people at the bottom is insanely wrong.
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Mar 8, 2020 04:46
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Solice Kirsk posted:I've been thinking about buying up a bunch of CCL and hang onto it until this whole thing blows over........ Youre nuts. I dont know how old you are but do you remember what happened to the airlines after 9/11? This is kind of like that for the cruise lines but cruises are 100% discretionary vs airlines which are definitely a critical form of global transport. No government is going to move an inch to help a cruise line and no one is going to take a cruise when cruises are all over the news for being involuntarily quarantined and stranded at sea. I’d argue its an almost unparalleled existential threat to an entire industry. greasyhands fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Mar 8, 2020 |
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Mar 8, 2020 04:55
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I'm going to short the gently caress out of everything Monday. gently caress it. Got the inside scoop of the first possible cases in my town from some friends who work at the hospital. Hasn't hit the news yet. Just a minor city. Crazy how fast it moves. 
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Mar 8, 2020 04:57
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Solice Kirsk posted:I've been thinking about buying up a bunch of CCL and hang onto it until this whole thing blows over........ Be able to buy a whole loving cruise ship at the bankruptcy sale for pretty cheap soon.
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Mar 8, 2020 05:12
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Ulio posted:WSB has kinda been depressing lately but this is hilarious lol. Trump as Gollem and Buffet as Gandalf is on point. That implies that whoever Elrond is is also agent Smith
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Mar 8, 2020 05:51
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paternity suitor posted:I'll grant you that mea culpa, but on the other hand, you seem to be running with the CSPAM crowd that is actively rooting for an economic collapse that will 100% hurt the most economically vulnerable and cause real human suffering. The idea that economic collapse hurts the 0.001% but doesn't hurt the people at the bottom is insanely wrong. I get that, I really do. I guess what I'm really rooting for is the chance for entrenched capitalistic interests to be dealt a blow, which may not be the same thing as the stock market eating poo poo. However, I still don't quite understand how a crashed stock market leads to the suffering of the lower class instead of the upper class - the middle class I can understand, since we're more likely to have taken out mortgages and be saving for retirement.
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Mar 8, 2020 15:56
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Pollyanna posted:I get that, I really do. I guess what I'm really rooting for is the chance for entrenched capitalistic interests to be dealt a blow, which may not be the same thing as the stock market eating poo poo. However, I still don't quite understand how a crashed stock market leads to the suffering of the lower class instead of the upper class - the middle class I can understand, since we're more likely to have taken out mortgages and be saving for retirement. On its own, sure, a stock crash isn't going to hit the less wealthy, all things equal. But it's rarely on its own--lately these things go hand-in-hand with recessions or worse. And for the first time in a long while the lowest-income quartile is making some progress compared with the rich:  And that's generally how things have gone in the US, since Reagan anyway, where it's during the latter parts of an expansion when the folks at the bottom start to do better. It happened at the end of the Clinton boom and it's happening right now. Unemployment is very low and we're finally starting to see that translate into "worker shortages" and wage increases in various sectors. For the first time in a long while people like convicts and those straight out of rehab--a group that was pretty much devastated after the 2008 crash when they were competing against college grads for entry-level jobs--can re-enter the workforce without nearly as much difficulty. This is a good thing! I 100% agree that wealth has been concentrated far too much at the top of the chain but praying for panic or recession seems more about indulging in spite than effectively addressing any of the issues. Much better to encourage economic growth and then tax the poo poo out of those who are receiving disproportionate benefits from it.
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Mar 8, 2020 16:16
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Pollyanna posted:I get that, I really do. I guess what I'm really rooting for is the chance for entrenched capitalistic interests to be dealt a blow, which may not be the same thing as the stock market eating poo poo. However, I still don't quite understand how a crashed stock market leads to the suffering of the lower class instead of the upper class - the middle class I can understand, since we're more likely to have taken out mortgages and be saving for retirement. The way to stick it to the man is not to invest in his companies. You need to short everything to bring down the hegemony. Take out some loans, borrow as many stocks as you can, and just loving sell them all. CEOs will hate you.
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Mar 8, 2020 17:13
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Pollyanna posted:I get that, I really do. I guess what I'm really rooting for is the chance for entrenched capitalistic interests to be dealt a blow, which may not be the same thing as the stock market eating poo poo. However, I still don't quite understand how a crashed stock market leads to the suffering of the lower class instead of the upper class - the middle class I can understand, since we're more likely to have taken out mortgages and be saving for retirement. Because the stock market isn't removed from the broader economy. It isn't a perfect measure of the economy by any means, but it's a measure nonetheless. It's possible that we could have a correction, kind of like what's been occurring, which is really just a reduction of valuation multiples. That's fine. But if we enter a recession, that means that earnings have decreased, and when earnings decrease, people lose their jobs, and employment tends to be LIFO - employers tend to hire disadvantaged members of society last, and then fire them first. I think that what you're rooting for is the people who tend to own a lot of stocks (obscenely rich people) to eat poo poo. Ok, fair. But those stocks they own are just fractional shares of companies that employ people. Should those companies be paying employees more? Sure. But a recession ain't gonna make that happen. What happens in recessions is that companies go lean, let people go, overwork their existing employees, and take the attitude "you don't like it? Fine, leave" Agronox posted:On its own, sure, a stock crash isn't going to hit the less wealthy, all things equal. But it's rarely on its own--lately these things go hand-in-hand with recessions or worse. And for the first time in a long while the lowest-income quartile is making some progress compared with the rich: Yes, exactly this! What we really want is the economy to continue to do well and expand, but fix the way the expansion is distributed. It's toxic, spiteful, and insanely privileged to root for catastrophe.
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Mar 8, 2020 17:18
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Oil is going to be so hosed on Monday
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Mar 8, 2020 18:09
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paternity suitor posted:Yes, exactly this! What we really want is the economy to continue to do well and expand, but fix the way the expansion is distributed. It's toxic, spiteful, and insanely privileged to root for catastrophe. One could just as easily say that it’s toxic, spiteful, and insanely privileged to root for capital. I hold stocks and only do (and would only do) so for personal gain, but I don’t pretend like most of the companies I invest in haven’t acted with a bestial morality only moderately reined in by a mostly uncaring first-world public. The companies we invest in fire people all over the world without a moment of care and then turn around and reward the C-levels. The companies we invest in fight tooth and nail from getting highly taxed or taxed at all. If you believe in climate change and see how most of the planet lives, anyone in the first world is more likely to be vilified by history than praised for their ability to provide jobs. Not reveling in the cruelty of the system doesn’t make you reflexively moral, so stop acting so outraged, especially in the gambling thread. Wanting to profit off the misfortune of others is gross, but trying to show that it’s gross because that means one is rooting for a recession also seems gross. A recession hurts people because we support a system where not only does a recession hurt people but so does a bubble and so does business as usual.
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Mar 8, 2020 22:06
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Love C-SPAM, great subforum, but put it back where it belongs please and thank you
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Mar 8, 2020 22:08
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please work from home to keep cspam infections to a minimum
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Mar 8, 2020 22:10
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:Love C-SPAM, great subforum, but put it back where it belongs please and thank you You're right, sorry. Oh look at the futures. Open down 2.5% and already down another half percent. 
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Mar 8, 2020 23:01
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If we don't trip a breaker tomorrow I don't know what will. That was some of the worst 2 days of news we've had yet.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:06
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Oil futures opened down 30%, Dow futures down 1000. I don’t know why I didn’t hold onto my ES puts Friday afternoon. I was scared by last Monday’s 5% rip up even though I knew we’d get nothing but bad news this weekend. 
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Mar 8, 2020 23:10
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Josh Lyman posted:Oil futures opened down 30%, Dow futures down 1000.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:16
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More blood for the VIX god.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:21
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Grouchio posted:Wait so, is the Oil industry is crumbling if it loses 30%? It's not a rosy picture. Couple years ago we had a goon reporting on tankers going into drydock in the Gulf; they didn't have enough demand to keep shipping and those ships cost a lot to keep operational so they were getting mothballed. Now couple that with: - A virus which spreads better in airports reducing air travel. - Multiple quarantines of cruise ships. - Lots of olds using cruise ships with an old-murdering virus now community transmitting. - Cost of oil production in the US went up even with fracking. And you've got a bunch of demand for oil getting knee capped. Couple that with the U.S.' production easily getting swamped by OPEC, and OPEC and Russia failing to reach a deal to curtail their individual sales, and oil's gonna get cheap. Which'll really gently caress with US production.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:27
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Mhm mhm. So gas prices shoot down to $1.50?
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Mar 8, 2020 23:30
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Maybe you could pull some strings there Donny
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Mar 8, 2020 23:33
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My TLT and VIX calls will be itm again lmao. Gonna instantly reroll on monday. I added some XLE on friday lol, that was unlucky timing. But still an ABSOLUTELY beautiful sell off and volatility, great for trading.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:34
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Grouchio posted:Mhm mhm. So gas prices shoot down to $1.50? I'd doubt it; but American oil extraction will probably take some permanent wounds.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:35
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I'd doubt it; but American oil extraction will probably take some permanent wounds. All the oil exploration/extraction companies have already taken a beating because of their massive debt and nobody willing to borrow them money.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:43
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I'd read that $40-$45 a barrel was the number below which Eagle Ford shale extraction became completely unprofitable. West Texas intermediate opened at 30.07.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:47
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saintonan posted:I'd read that $40-$45 a barrel was the number below which Eagle Ford shale extraction became completely unprofitable. West Texas intermediate opened at 30.07. Houston, they have a problem.
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Mar 8, 2020 23:47
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Woodchip posted:Houston, they have a problem. and it's literally Houston that has a problem since so many O&G companies are HQ'd in that city.
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Mar 9, 2020 00:00
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I manage a fund that does well with volatility, but this... this is a bit much.
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Mar 9, 2020 00:04
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Closed my 3/20 SQQQ call Friday 
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Mar 9, 2020 00:13
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I look at the ES at 2840 down 4.2% and want to buy calls for a scalp because surely we won’t stay there until 9:30am much less 4pm. But at the same time, we’ve literally had the biggest down openings of all time in the past 2 weeks: https://www.ft.com/content/54373696-5a39-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20
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Mar 9, 2020 00:18
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EOD Friday I put in a limit order on some SPY puts. I never put limit orders, idk why I did this time; they didn't go through. Sure am glad I saved those ~20 bucks I would've lost on a market order  For those of you holding cash to buy in in case of a sellof, are you gonna pick the highest performers pre-crash or do you go for broad indices? Not basing my investments on your opinions, just curious.
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Mar 9, 2020 00:28
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I only buy video game company shares.
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Mar 9, 2020 00:41
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:For those of you holding cash to buy in in case of a sellof, are you gonna pick the highest performers pre-crash or do you go for broad indices? Not basing my investments on your opinions, just curious. I don't know if I'm good enough to do the former so probably stick with the latter
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Mar 9, 2020 00:43
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