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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed. |
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| R. Allin-Khan |
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6 | 1.60% |
| R. Burgon |
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80 | 21.33% |
| D. Butler |
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72 | 19.20% |
| A. Rayner |
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35 | 9.33% |
| I. Murray |
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5 | 1.33% |
| P. Flaps |
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177 | 47.20% |
| Total: | 375 votes | ||
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This is not Ebola with a 90% fatality rate. There is no need to completely sterilize all surfaces and maintain a hermetic seal (unless you are a healthcare worker who is at risk of continual exposure). Under pandemic conditions the public health goal is just social distancing to reduce the rate of new infections, but not to completely contain it at known infection clusters with zero leakage, which is accepted as impossible. Given a expected duration of several months (the SARS crisis lasted from February to July 2003), complete containment would not be sustainable by any industrial country. The policy options that developed countries have are to limit mass events and discourage 'unnecessary' travel. The judgment of necessity would necessarily be devolved to the individual; if you have access to private transit you may well face no real inhibitions on your freedom of movement. If you want a vision of the near future, imagine all of Britain's usual class, gender, and race biases being used by the red top mob to judge whether a given individual was being morally responsible by going to the pub/park/mall when ill - this is already currently the diversion of the populist lowbrow press in Korea and Taiwan, as I understand. It does have the awkward implication that the early exposed countries - China, notably - that undertook severe measures to achieve containment will now see re-importations reintroduce the infection to the country - we are already seeing reports of infections from European visitors to assorted countries.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:37
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:My wife is about to come home and pull a sicky (or more accurately, pull a self-isolationy) to get out of going to work tomorrow. 2 weeks in "self-isolation" ought to be long enough to see the country going into lock down (hopefully) so she won't have to go into work after it, either. I'm self certifying until next week at this rate, and I'm hoping that will be long enough for them to shut down the loving office I remoted into my desktop to see if I'd missed any emails and they're basically saying "we'll ask employees to self-assess* before attending customer sites, and customers to self-assess before coming to our site" there is no essential reason for a customer to come to us, so they should just completely postpone those, and sales visits should be completely banned too the tech support side of my job is the only thing that is conceivably 'essential' (we have customers in every sector, inc. power, pharma, water etc.) but that can reasonably be done remotely so I'm hoping I'll get told to wfh before I end up well enough to go back at work although I don't actually have a work laptop/phone, so hopefully I just slip through the cracks when they shut everything down and sit at home watching films a day * which includes symptoms, as well as just travel to outbreak areas
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Mar 11, 2020 18:38
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Okay, which loving columnist put out the "Cases are already going down in China, therefore we don't have to worry" idea into the world because this particular  take is loving everywhere at the moment and no, they're not taking followup questions about why that might be the case.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:40
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:My wife is about to come home and pull a sicky (or more accurately, pull a self-isolationy) to get out of going to work tomorrow. 2 weeks in "self-isolation" ought to be long enough to see the country going into lock down (hopefully) so she won't have to go into work after it, either. Have to admit you're scaring me a little JC especially as I know where you work!
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Mar 11, 2020 18:43
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ronya posted:This is not Ebola with a 90% fatality rate. There is no need to completely sterilize all surfaces and maintain a hermetic seal (unless you are a healthcare worker who is at risk of continual exposure). Under pandemic conditions the public health goal is just social distancing to reduce the rate of new infections, but not to completely contain it at known infection clusters with zero leakage, which is accepted as impossible. Given a expected duration of several months (the SARS crisis lasted from February to July 2003), complete containment would not be sustainable by any industrial country. This is very true, though a shutdown should be the initial response while we build hospital capacity. China did that, they built 14 hospitals practically overnight, and had enough ventilators. We can re-open the country as that capacity climbs, so that the virus can work its way through the population and the population can get treated. There's a lot of "flatten the curve" talk. The flatter it is, the worse the economy does, so you don't want to over-do it.  Now personally I think we've hosed it already, partly by having a massively overstretched NHS to begin with, and that green line isn't possible. If we act now we can flatten it, but we probably need to raise capacity too, something like this  I have no data to support this, mind. I just think this is a situation we should prepare for.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:49
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ThomasPaine posted:Have to admit you're scaring me a little JC especially as I know where you work! If it's any consolation, my organisation isn't actually putting out any messages that would corroborate me. I think they should have shut down the building already (hence why I'm refusing to go in to work) but they're not doing that. I'm honestly not sure why. Surely they must be aware of how bad this is. That's partly why I think it might just be me. But you know what, I'm taking "better safe than sorry" to the extreme here
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Mar 11, 2020 18:51
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Azza Bamboo posted:It's a loving flu, we'll get through it and some grannies will die and a few nurses will quit their NHS jobs in favour of the much less stressful cosmetic procedure industry. Life goes on whoop de doo. The Spanish Flu in 1918 infected about 27% and killed something like 5% of the world's population. Also: quote:Many individuals who get coronavirus will experience nothing worse than seasonal flu symptoms, but the overall profile of the disease, including its mortality rate, looks more serious. At the start of an outbreak the apparent mortality rate can be an overestimate if a lot of mild cases are being missed. But this week, a WHO expert suggested that this has not been the case with Covid-19. Bruce Aylward, who led an international mission to China to learn about the virus and the country’s response, said the evidence did not suggest that we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg. If borne out by further testing, this could mean that current estimates of a roughly 1% fatality rate are accurate. This would make Covid-19 about 10 times more deadly than seasonal flu, which is estimated to kill between 290,000 and 650,000 people a year globally. So yes, it's a flu, but some flus are much worse than others. It should be taken seriously - more seriously than the British Government are currently treating it.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:52
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There's no way my work will close, we're a pharmacy. I'm off this week and just staying at home for the most part but back on Monday lol
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Mar 11, 2020 19:06
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:Now personally I think we've hosed it already, partly by having a massively overstretched NHS to begin with, and that green line isn't possible. If we act now we can flatten it, but we probably need to raise capacity too, something like this worth noting that the perennial winter-crisis messaging comes with the caveat that there is a crisis in the sense that quality, reliability, and responsiveness have to go down below targets in order to handle the flu season if one is about ready to fling quality out of the nearest window and cancel all discretionary operations regardless (in that new-hospital-in-eight-days sense, after all...) then suddenly capacity goes up a lot "by how much exactly" requires picking through a great deal more NHS statistics however ronya fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 19:08
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But it doesn't harm the young all that much and isn't anywhere close to a death sentence. To treat it as if the sky is falling is daft. We should still be doing more, but perhaps not getting too OTT about things.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:08
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some sky-is-falling is good so that people actually comply with social distancing measures one can normally trust certain parties to have panic in ample supply however
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Mar 11, 2020 19:10
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ronya posted:worth noting that the perennial winter-crisis messaging comes with the caveat that there is a crisis in the sense that quality, reliability, and responsiveness have to go down below targets in order to handle the flu season That is a very good point and I hadn't considered that, thanks. So the uptick in the line is already baked in. The question will be if the uptick is sharp and high enough.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:10
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I'm curious to see if the Tories have to execute their plans to have the army empty the bins.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:10
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ronya posted:one can normally trust certain parties to have panic in ample supply however
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Mar 11, 2020 19:11
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Azza Bamboo posted:I'm curious to see if the Tories have to execute their plans to have the army empty the bins. At last the future that brexiters voted for.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:12
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Josef bugman posted:But it doesn't harm the young all that much and isn't anywhere close to a death sentence. To treat it as if the sky is falling is daft. We should still be doing more, but perhaps not getting too OTT about things. If my Mum is unlucky enough to get it when the NHS is under pressure from cases, as a lifelong smoker and somebody who has previously had pneumonia a couple of times, she will almost certainly die. I'm not panicking about it, I hope it's unlikely that she'll get it, but given how it's been progressing in Italy, and how many people have been dying there, and how much pressure their health service is under (and their health service is rated better than the UKs, with twice as many ICU beds per capita), the UK should be near enough shut down by now. E: Not a dig at you Bugman but this thread quite often reminds people of stuff like "These cuts/this recession will hit the poor, weak, disabled and disadvantaged the hardest, and people including some in this thread will die" - it's a bit of a shock to see people going "Ahhh it's only a virus, whatever". Yeah the sky is not going to fall, but it's not going to fall (immediately) with a Tory government either. It's still poo poo and we should be doing what we can to fight it. WhatEvil fucked around with this message at 19:16 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 19:13
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Mar 11, 2020 19:14
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I'm doing some more work on an MP project and just came across this gem in Github: "Merge two Jack Breretons" Made me smile anyway.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:17
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Bleh, that tweet about leftist on Twitter being mean about Nadine Dorries is very unfair. I'm extremely concerned about her condition; there's a chance she might recover!
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Mar 11, 2020 19:21
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It’s not just about the Coronavirus, it’s about overwhelming the capacity of the NHS to care for everyone. The deaths due to the disease are going to be considerably higher than those that die testing positive. On an individual level not panicking is obviously the most sensible advice, along with washing your hands frequently and not touching your face, given that there’s nothing else you can really do. The trouble is there’s plenty that can be done on a regional to national level and we seem to be mismanaging it, which means things are likely to get worse. I mean, hell, in my hospital we’re screening all respiratory admissions for covid. We have no capacity to isolate them appropriately whilst waiting for the swab results, and the current turnaround time on the results are 4 days. Doesn’t take a genius to see the issues there.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:25
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WhatEvil posted:Yeah the sky is not going to fall, but it's not going to fall (immediately) with a Tory government either. It's still poo poo and we should be doing what we can to fight it. I suppose it's because, ultimately, it doesn't actually seem that bad. Like Italy is having difficulty but deaths do not seem to be all that high. But more people will quite literally die every day from car accidents than will die of this. If you are immuno compromised or are caring for folk with problems and are concerned then more than fair, but going "Be more afraid" seems silly. I can understand it if you have to live with it and everyone should take more precautions though.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:25
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Really sick of the "it'll only kill the olds" discourse. Vulnerable people who aren't elderly tories will die - potentially in their thousands. Which is something the left tends to claim to be against.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:27
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The problem with COVID-19 isn't just how many people it'll kill. The problem is that it looks very good at gumming up the mechanisms that keep people alive. Our socioeconomy is highly interconnected and highly fragile, and a decade of austerity has stripped out most of its safety margins. If we're unlucky, this bug could well be the first domino in a long and destructive chain.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:28
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OwlFancier posted:They're going to activate the wall around the M25. You mean they're going tot urn on the Dread Sigil Odegra, surely?
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Mar 11, 2020 19:32
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I’m going to die of coronavirus because I can’t stop biting my nails because I’m worried about coronavirus. Irony!
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Mar 11, 2020 19:37
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Josef bugman posted:I suppose it's because, ultimately, it doesn't actually seem that bad. Like Italy is having difficulty but deaths do not seem to be all that high. But more people will quite literally die every day from car accidents than will die of this. If you are immuno compromised or are caring for folk with problems and are concerned then more than fair, but going "Be more afraid" seems silly. I can understand it if you have to live with it and everyone should take more precautions though. I'm sure that's a huge consolation to the vulnerable, immunocompromised and elderly. Can we apply this to those impacted by work assessments too now? That doesn't seem that bad either.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:37
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Josef bugman posted:I suppose it's because, ultimately, it doesn't actually seem that bad. Like Italy is having difficulty but deaths do not seem to be all that high. But more people will quite literally die every day from car accidents than will die of this. If you are immuno compromised or are caring for folk with problems and are concerned then more than fair, but going "Be more afraid" seems silly. I can understand it if you have to live with it and everyone should take more precautions though. I think this is probably not true, there are 800 dead in Italy in the last week or so and it's only going to ramp up; in 2018 they had 3300 road fatalities a flu season is probably more on the scale we're talking about (i.e tens of thousands of dead), which does put it in perspective but also it's still a lot of extra dead people and the government's response is poor so far for what it's worth, my mum is a former senior public health official and she assures me there is a lot of thought and planning (by actual professionals, not the politicians) and she is calmer about this than me, although she is also baffled by the "we might start telling people with minor respiratory symptoms to stay off work in a couple of weeks" thing wrt "oh it'll only kill the old and infirm", Frances Ryan had a good article on this https://mobile.twitter.com/DrFrancesRyan/status/1237671180649336832 and here's something concerning I saw when I was looking for it quote:Alberto Volpe, a 33-year-old, was feverish when he flew from Milan to Gatwick on Sunday after being forced to return home from a skiing holiday in Chamonix due to an injury to his girlfriend. I feel like people coming off a flight from a country in meltdown should end up in at least some sort of quarantine, even if they're not symptomatic XMNN fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 19:38
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Josef bugman posted:But more people will quite literally die every day from car accidents than will die of this. If the hospitals are in meltdown due to coronavirus, that number will go up proportionately.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:38
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ronya posted:https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1237744199040143360 could you expand a little on what you mean by that? sounds interesting. I just didn't quite understand. the tax and benefits changes adversely affect those at the bottom but increased funding to services helps them?
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Mar 11, 2020 19:41
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ThomasPaine posted:I wonder if we're in a cold war we don't even realise is happening... this has been the case for decades fyi in the west everybody somehow stopped caring about anything at all sometime back in the early 1980s. some people say it happened after the soviet union collapsed but i think that was just a coincidence, reagan & thatcher were already long before
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Mar 11, 2020 19:45
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Pesmerga posted:I'm sure that's a huge consolation to the vulnerable, immunocompromised and elderly. Can we apply this to those impacted by work assessments too now? That doesn't seem that bad either. Yeah, it's kinda... uncaring. Not just because all of these people are people, even if they're people who (with the elderly in particular) keep voting for the Leopards Eating People's Faces party, but... it's not like there are many people who don't know at least one person with respiratory issues, some form of immune compromise, or who is over 50. SO even if you're uncaring on a demographic scale, which you shouldn't be, it shouldn't take anyone more than a couple of minutes of thinking to come up with a few people who they know personally who fall into that high risk group. I know I have... 3 friends I can think of offhand, two parents, and one wife, who do. Maybe people ITT who are spouting this poo poo might take a moment to think of the people they know who are at high risk. Hell, I'm pretty sure there are several regular posters who are over 50 right here.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:47
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josh04 posted:If the hospitals are in meltdown due to coronavirus, that number will go up proportionately.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:47
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I've already resigned to the fact that I'm going to lose probably my only real friend over this so I'm just hoping it takes as many of the bastards who made that happen out as well. If I can't have justice I will gladly have vengeance.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:52
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Think I might defect to the people's republic
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Mar 11, 2020 19:52
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Pesmerga posted:I'm sure that's a huge consolation to the vulnerable, immunocompromised and elderly. Can we apply this to those impacted by work assessments too now? That doesn't seem that bad either. Because those are things caused by people. This is worsened by people, but it doesn't come from them. We can actually do things that will make work assessments better, we can do things that, ultimately, make life easier for folks. That's why we should be making things easier for others and taking care of our own and others health. But I don't think it's possible to fully stop this, and it probably never was. XMNN posted:I think this is probably not true, there are 800 dead in Italy in the last week or so and it's only going to ramp up; in 2018 they had 3300 road fatalities I mean that seems reasonable. josh04 posted:If the hospitals are in meltdown due to coronavirus, that number will go up proportionately. That's very true. Maybe I am less worried because, to put it bluntly, the only folk I have seen truly fearful are arses from TV or arses at work being racist about Asian folk. Josef bugman fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 19:54
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Josef bugman posted:I suppose it's because, ultimately, it doesn't actually seem that bad. Like Italy is having difficulty but deaths do not seem to be all that high. But more people will quite literally die every day from car accidents than will die of this. If you are immuno compromised or are caring for folk with problems and are concerned then more than fair, but going "Be more afraid" seems silly. I can understand it if you have to live with it and everyone should take more precautions though. Yeah I'm about where you are, JB. The evidence so far suggests that most people aren't going to be infected, most infected people aren't going to have more than mild symptoms, and even in at risk groups like the over 80s the vast majority of people will recover. Be sensible, take precautions, but consider not following 24-hour CORONAWATCH rolling news and try to keep some sense of perspective.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:57
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My mother is immune compromised and my 14-year-old niece only has one lung so I'm not really in the mood to be told that since I myself am unlikely to die of this, that I shouldn't worry. I'm worried for them.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:58
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my parents and my partner's parents will be in the "die in a hallway" category
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Mar 11, 2020 19:59
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im gonna move to south korea and eat bibimbap until this all blows over
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Mar 11, 2020 20:01
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yeah, I'm mostly worried for my two surviving grandparents (90 year old grandad with a heart condition, 70ish grandma who is a lifelong smoker) and my mum who's 56 and has asthma, so it mostly killing old people isn't much consolation I also reject the notion that there was no hope of containing it, that might be true now (or it might not, but apparently it would hurt the number too much to find out) but it probably wasn't true even a month ago
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Mar 11, 2020 20:04
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