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If you look at bitcoin there's always some new moron ready to hold the bag (anything bitcoin related involves people being morons even people that claim they know what they are doing). I guess bitcoin is a lot less regulated though so you get high school kids involved too which should never happen in the stock market. You also get crazy success stories and the idiot will try and repeat it losing their fortune instead of celebrating their victory and either exiting entirely or slowing down to a normal strategy. WSB seems to be converting bitcoin people into options people, which could lead to new and interesting things if the bitcoin guys still have a lot of cash they are ready to be stupid with. pixaal fucked around with this message at 14:27 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 14:25
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Are the people buying $CZR puts gonna go in as early as possible or maybe wait for a market bounce today? I don’t know about price movement day to day but I imagine that it stays above 10 today at least at the open. There’s no news aside from general Fed cuts interest rates news that would send the stock much higher IMO. There’s also no news that would send the stock cratering. They also canceled the temporary cell towers for the NFL draft weekend. Looks like fewer people in attendance or that it’s planing on being canceled.
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Mar 11, 2020 14:32
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Would someone who's enamored of the "lots of stupid people are buying options so that means we're at the bottom" please describe how that works? How does increased option volume make the underlying asset go up? Thought of this some more as well. Same "stupid" people will very easily get shaken out of the trade from the volatility, give up, and then miss out on the next leg down.
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Mar 11, 2020 14:32
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Lote posted:I don’t know about price movement day to day but I imagine that it stays above 10 today at least at the open. There’s no news aside from general Fed cuts interest rates news that would send the stock much higher IMO. There’s also no news that would send the stock cratering. Puts jumped up quite a bit on open and so far $CZR has broadly followed general market trends so I think I'm gonna risk waiting for a market correction before going in
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Mar 11, 2020 14:36
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Are the people buying $CZR puts gonna go in as early as possible or maybe wait for a market bounce today? Probably go in now but have prices at where they will avg down if they are going in for long term. Also JPM telling it's clients to sell into every rally and that the Fed will cut by 100bps next week.
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Mar 11, 2020 14:37
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Ulio posted:Probably go in now but have prices at where they will avg down if they are going in for long term. I bought at open 4/17 $10p, premiums only up $10, to $179 for 1 conteact. Looks like a bargain ATM, unless they somehow start making money amid this crisis. Although the market is irrational so who knows. For me it's a calculated gamble. Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 15:27 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 15:25
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So on a down day like today, what is the "correct" way to take profits while maintaining the same exposure? i.e. If i were to take profits on nearer expirys, what should I be buying to replace it?
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Mar 11, 2020 16:11
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fougera posted:So on a down day like today, what is the "correct" way to take profits while maintaining the same exposure? i.e. If i were to take profits on nearer expirys, what should I be buying to replace it? If you don’t think the market will move up or down significantly why replace? You don’t have to be fully exposed if you don’t see opportunities.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:21
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fougera posted:So on a down day like today, what is the "correct" way to take profits while maintaining the same exposure? i.e. If i were to take profits on nearer expirys, what should I be buying to replace it? Generally you see more theta problems the closer to expiry. So if you wanted to keep a strategy rolling, buying the same strike with a farther expiry will allow you to avoid the same level of theta problems to some degree. Generally. Prices are loving nuts right now.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:22
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Took a position on CZR. 18 SEP 6 PUTS. Bid/ask spread was pretty gross but I might still be green on them by EOD; I plan to hold to expiry or for them to get at least $1 ITM. Thanks for the good writeup Lote, hope it bears out.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:28
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Goddamn, IV is so bad that my short-term expiry puts and calls refuse to move
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Mar 11, 2020 16:28
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fougera posted:So on a down day like today, what is the "correct" way to take profits while maintaining the same exposure? i.e. If i were to take profits on nearer expirys, what should I be buying to replace it? You can't maintain the same exposure that you have RIGHT NOW, AND take profits, so I think it's useful to understand what kind of rolls you can make and what you're trading in and out. Any time you convert option value to cash you're eliminating both risk and potential at the same time. Any time you convert cash to option value you're increasing both your risk and potential at the same time. I'll write it up for puts, but you can change price-relative negative numbers positive and vice versa to make it apply for calls. Theta and Gamma have these relationships regardless of call/put. For puts: If you execute a vertical to move your strike price down, you should receive cash, increase your delta, decrease gamma, and decrease your theta. Further drops will pay out less, but, you got cash out. If you execute a vertical to move your strike price up, you will pay cash, decrease your delta, increase gamma, and increase theta. Further drops will pay out more for you putting in more cash. If you roll to a later expiry, you will pay cash, marginally increase delta, decrease gamma, and decrease theta. Further drops will pay out more per point, but, the gains you'll get from volatility will be muted. If you roll to a closer expiry, you will receive cash, decrease delta, increase gamma, and increase theta. Further drops will pay out less per point, but you'll get more from overall volatility. Right now vol is high so all options are high. You can think of buying a later expiry as buying "more option" than a closer expiry, so do you want to buy in bulk while stuff is expensive, or while it's cheap? (While it's cheap). For me that means I generally don't want to hold things past 60 days if I'm trying to maintain exposure to a trend like our current bear trend. Dwight Eisenhower fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 16:37
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Dwight is very good at explaining this and I like that post. Most options traders on the internet (read: idiots, maybe not here, but elsewhere idiots) ignore the greeks and get all pissy when they lose value despite small price movement that would favor their options. Or they buy weeklies in a flat week and lose everything. Options are not great at holding value over any amount of time! They're supposed to be really complex instruments but most people trade them like lottery scratchers, myself included. Don't hold options over weekends these days if you don't have a REALLY good idea what you're doing.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:43
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Hit Man posted:Doom and gloom. The major issue is that the 60-70% infected have to be spread out in time, i.e. the rate of infection needs to be slowed down by quarantine measures etc., in order not to completely overload the health system. In addition to the rate cut, UK (of all places) has come out today with what looks to me like a fairly sensible fiscal response: quote:Sunak warned the virus will inevitably lead to a reduction in consumer spending. But he said he was in “constant communication” with the Bank of England over the “coordinated” and “comprehensive” response to the virus. The chancellor set out his multi-billion pound three-point plan, including 7 billion pounds to support businesses and individuals: Comparing this with the US admin that has been announcing major plans to come for three trading days now and nothing to show for it, I'm... a little concerned.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:52
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jokes posted:Dwight is very good at explaining this and I like that post. Most options traders on the internet (read: idiots, maybe not here, but elsewhere idiots) ignore the greeks and get all pissy when they lose value despite small price movement that would favor their options. Or they buy weeklies in a flat week and lose everything. Thank you! FWIW I have been told almost all of these things or read them several times over, but understanding them intellectually in space to breath and without anything on the line is different from having the ability to use this information in the moment and act coherently with it to make decisions that require timeliness. A lot of trading option skill is seat time, and seat time is expensive with options. I've been trying to passively play things like iron condors or ridonkulous cheap singles since ~2013. I'd hazard like 50-65% of whatever skill I do have has come about in the last 6 months since I've been trading more actively.
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Mar 11, 2020 16:52
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Anyone know if there's a website that shows me a chart, and for any point I click on the chart it comes up with articles for that specific date? Like say I'm looking at a stock and want to know what caused drops and spikes, just click on those and bam article.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:00
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Took a position on CZR. 18 SEP 6 PUTS. Bid/ask spread was pretty gross but I might still be green on them by EOD; I plan to hold to expiry or for them to get at least $1 ITM. You’re welcome. I would be cautious to broadly apply this thesis to all gambling stocks, specifically gambling stocks with exposure to Macao/Singapore like LVS, WYNN, and MGM. I think the reopening of Macao to mainland China is going to be announced in the next few weeks which will cause those stocks to jump temporarily. I think this recovery is going to be a hockey stick with lingering effects lasting into the fall. Rooms in Macao and Singapore are basically selling at their cheapest for all days out until the end of April. What’s curious is that Macao took some pretty extreme measures to prevent spread and they only had 10 cases which are all recovered.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:08
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:You can't maintain the same exposure that you have RIGHT NOW, AND take profits, so I think it's useful to understand what kind of rolls you can make and what you're trading in and out. Any time you convert option value to cash you're eliminating both risk and potential at the same time. Any time you convert cash to option value you're increasing both your risk and potential at the same time. I'll write it up for puts, but you can change price-relative negative numbers positive and vice versa to make it apply for calls. Theta and Gamma have these relationships regardless of call/put. Awesome thanks. I was struggling to express what I wanted before; the end objective is to get cash out because I don't want options to exceed a certain % of my capital. Why is it that both gamma and theta have the same relationship regardless of call/put? For the above I would figure a vertical/down for a call would make it more in the money and therefore less sensitive to short term moves or time decay?
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Mar 11, 2020 17:26
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I'm tempted to jump in on Canadian National Railway here in Canada since their price is dropping like everyone else's and it looks like the pipeline blockades are done. They move grain and poo poo around. People are still going to be eating for quite some time. I should probably find out how much of what they haul is usually Canadian oil first, because that sector is taking a beating.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:26
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There's the P word.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:40
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odiv posted:I'm tempted to jump in on Canadian National Railway here in Canada since their price is dropping like everyone else's and it looks like the pipeline blockades are done. They move grain and poo poo around. People are still going to be eating for quite some time. Russia and Saudis Arabia/MBS are in a price war right now but this also applies to US and Canada. MBS wants to bankrupt and take out as many Nat gas / oil companies as possible and the US and Canada are also in his crosshairs. They are maxing production AND releasing reserves as their output is higher than their stated max production. Aramco just went public so they’ve got cash to potentially scoop up the leftovers and/or sustain this price war for quite a while. Also CZR just broke through its resistance at $10. Looks to not have a floor right now.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:41
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Oh yeah, absolutely I don't want to go anywhere near Canadian oil for those (and other) reasons. But I have no idea how much of CNR's business is oil related and it would be irresponsible (lol) to invest without at least a cursory look at that.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:44
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:There's the P word. Everything is a lagging indicator at this point.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:44
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I’ve been holding an ES futures position all day and been unable to trade the run up from 11:20-12:20 and now the subsequent drop due to work. 
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Mar 11, 2020 17:50
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:There's the P word. Purchasing puts prop portfolio profit. Public panic pays.
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Mar 11, 2020 17:55
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GUSH is now a penny stock. Do they re-index or reverse split 3x stocks?
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Mar 11, 2020 17:57
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Hit Man posted:Purchasing puts prop portfolio profit. Public panic pays. Pandemic
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Mar 11, 2020 17:59
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There was a big ol to-do about how the word pandemic isn't used in any formal capacity, but I guess that was the cdc and not who? Maybe? Either way big lol if anyone was waiting for an organization to confirm that Virus Gonna Virus
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Mar 11, 2020 18:05
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fougera posted:Awesome thanks. I was struggling to express what I wanted before; the end objective is to get cash out because I don't want options to exceed a certain % of my capital. I think it's more that I worded it poorly than your understanding. Holding an expiry constant across strikes: more at the money = more theta and more gamma. As you go further OTM, the probability ITM drops and so the probability parts of the option's value drop off. As you go further ITM, more of the price of the option is dictated by intrinsic than by extrinsic value. You're buying the most gamma at the money, and you'll suffer the most theta at the money. Holding a strike constant across expiries: gamma of further dated expiries is lower than gamma of nearer dated expiries. theta of further dated expiries is lower than theta of nearer dated expiries. I've read some people trying to instruct about options that gamma IS theta. I think what they mean is, there's some amount of value that is the probabilistic expiry of the option, and that both gamma and delta are different outcomes on the price of the option as two different variables (volatility and time) interact with that value.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:06
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That's all greek to me  Gotta watch some videos about the greeks.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:30
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SPY really holding unto that 270 area. I am guessing if that breaks we will see credit spreads widen even more.
Ulio fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 18:39
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Yeah, 2750 is acting like a support for some reason (the reason is people are dumb). Not sure Central Banks have enough ammo to hold this up anymore, it might come down to bailouts.
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Mar 11, 2020 18:50
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:There was a big ol to-do about how the word pandemic isn't used in any formal capacity, but I guess that was the cdc and not who? Maybe? Either way big lol if anyone was waiting for an organization to confirm that Virus Gonna Virus Its kind of weird but a lot of companies, including ours, have their contingency planning tied to WHO alert levels. We went to highest reaction mode awhile ago in spite of the WHO dragging its feet, but I can imagine there are a significant percentage of companies who were still holding off due to red tape or "its just a flu bro, it'll blow over".
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Mar 11, 2020 18:51
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The fact that MSFT still hasn't cancelled Build 2020 means that some companies are of the belief that it might all blow over.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:12
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Yeah, 2750 is acting like a support for some reason (the reason is people are dumb). Not sure Central Banks have enough ammo to hold this up anymore, it might come down to bailouts. Speaking of, the Fed accepted its record for overnight repo today. Something like $150 billion. At what point does it become concerning that there’s a liquidity crisis? This is supposed to be emergency operations and shouldn’t it be concerning if there are no banks willing to lend overnight for an increasingly large amount of money?
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Mar 11, 2020 19:12
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you know the only reason the WHO have had to dig out the old definition and run a 'THIS IS A PANDEMIC' conference is to drill it home to Trump
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Mar 11, 2020 19:27
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Bored As gently caress posted:That's all greek to me short version: delta: how much this position goes up if the underlying goes up a dollar gamma: how much delta goes up if the underlying goes up a dollar theta: how much this position goes down in 24 hours So theta of holding one share of stock is 0, delta is 1, and gamma is 0 Theta of being short one share of stock is 0, delta is -1, and gamma is 0. The greeks are things you estimate about an option; they are the tail and the tail does not wag the dog. Models for estimating the greeks are wrong; but may be useful.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:28
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Etrade flip it's daily change percent calculation to baseline from open instead of prior close or something? Only showing a five percent gain on the may 260s I bought near close yesterday, when it's more like 50%.
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Mar 11, 2020 19:37
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My 7/17 at $275 is gonna buy me a lotta hand sanitizer off ebay
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Mar 11, 2020 19:39
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Preemptive RIP longest bull market ever
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Mar 11, 2020 19:45
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