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Josh Lyman posted:You’ll just have to maintain $25,000 in your account. You also need margin, which should be trivial to get approved if you have 25k in stock / cash
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Mar 11, 2020 21:46
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No one even mentioning BA down nearly 20% today. Were reaching the panic buy point, we already have an early results book in china and south korea which have already seen infections slow massively. The world isnt going to end. I never thought I’d be into oil stocks but im about to add a lot. Saudi arabia is being stupid and this game wont last long- why would they want to pump all their oil out of the ground and sell it at a discount instead of find a global equilibrium price and allow everyone to draw down their wells at similar rates. Its a political move by that pos MBS and he is going to get smacked down soon.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:46
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Oscar Wild posted:You won't get sent to prison but your trading can become restricted. It's for your own good really, but read up on pattern day trading, free ride violations, and settlement rules or you'll be calling your brokerage firm wondering why nothing is happening when you're mashing the buy button. Thanks, looking up PDT it looks like it could force me into having $25K cash on hand. I'm not looking to do anything crazy, and I'm talking about playing with $1-2K at a time in an account I have $50K cash sitting in right now so I'm not even sure if there would be much real impact but PDT sounds annoying to deal with. I think I'm safe from free ride, cash liquidation, and good faith violations until I get really degenerate.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:47
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greasyhands posted:No one even mentioning BA down nearly 20% today. I'd mention it but this is the degenerate gambling thread. I started adding to my BA position in my non-degenerate responsible adult account pretty much the moment it hit $190.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:51
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Honestly, I could technically move some assets to my brokerage and have the 25k but I don't trust myself to not get get overconfident and start doing stupid stuff on margin. This way it forces me to play with cash on hand that I specifically separated for gambling.
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Mar 11, 2020 21:54
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9pm for a Trump Pump. Do or die for Mar. 12 trading. Boom or bust!
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Mar 11, 2020 21:58
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saintonan posted:If the Fed will backstop your neighbors with nearly unlimited amounts for overnight lending, and rates are virtually zero, why would you take any risk at all to conduct overnight lending? What does this sentence mean? My brain is not parsing it, did you miss a word?
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Mar 11, 2020 22:01
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Honestly, I could technically move some assets to my brokerage and have the 25k but I don't trust myself to not get get overconfident and start doing stupid stuff on margin. For awhile I had ~$30k in my gambling account and just treated $25k of it as if it weren't there. Takes a fuckload of discipline. I don't recommend it. Inner Light posted:What does this sentence mean? My brain is not parsing it, did you miss a word? I think he means that there would be no risk at that point so it shouldn't be part of the lenders calculation?
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Mar 11, 2020 22:02
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greasyhands posted:No one even mentioning BA down nearly 20% today. Were reaching the panic buy point, we already have an early results book in china and south korea which have already seen infections slow massively. Well, China and South Korea took steps that the United States... hasn't. I don't know. If we're at Italy minus 10 days, as a couple of researchers seem to think, this is going to get much worse before it gets better.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:05
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Bought 270 puts on this idiotic end of day rally On what?
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Mar 11, 2020 22:11
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Guessing $SPY. I picked up some calls at end of day on GLD, GDX, USO, OIH. All expiring awhile from now (most June and July) but should be good for 10-20% in the near-term. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Mar 11, 2020 |
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Mar 11, 2020 22:12
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greasyhands posted:No one even mentioning BA down nearly 20% today. Were reaching the panic buy point, we already have an early results book in china and south korea which have already seen infections slow massively. The world isnt going to end. I never thought I’d be into oil stocks but im about to add a lot. Saudi arabia is being stupid and this game wont last long- why would they want to pump all their oil out of the ground and sell it at a discount instead of find a global equilibrium price and allow everyone to draw down their wells at similar rates. Its a political move by that pos MBS and he is going to get smacked down soon. Dude, China put the county on quarantine for 2 months. South Korea is testing EVERYONE and banned all gatherings of more than like 5 people. We've tested fewer people over the entire pandemic than South Korea does in half a day. We almost certainly have thousands of undiagnosed infected walking around, working, and interacting with people all over. Expect to see something like is going on in Italy in the next week or two.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:26
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Arzakon posted:Okay I did a babby's first degenerate gambling when that little SPY dip happened right before the rally. SPY 295, Mar13 10@.32. Sold half of them up 60% before the close. So the market doesn't always just go the opposite direction the day before. It loving sucks. Everyone would do that if it was that east. The market is manic and at times completely irrational. See: yesterday's rally. There was no good news nationally, yet stocks went up 1k pts. So timing the market is really difficult. There's a saying that "time in the market always beats timing the market" meaning over 25 years, you're gonna see great gains on your investments. Options really are gambling, even doing due diligence or following someone else's that makes sense can sometimes backfire and leave you with a $57 portfolio. As for advice, look for companies that are going to be really hosed by coronavirus. I bought some CZR and MGM today, based on the DD (due diligence) posted here. It might pay off, it might not. I could've cashed out of all my positions today and have been up $2k, but I'm gambling my $5k that the puts I have are gonna give me even more gains in the coming weeks because it's not like Disney, Seaworld, and casinos are gonna do better as the pandemic worsens. Unless of course the market reacts irrationally, which it totally could, in which case I'm gonna regret not cashing out when I could. Dwight Eisenhower knows more than I'll ever forget about options, look at all of his posts, and look up videos on YouTube for terms and stuff you don't understand.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:26
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My brother-in-law just received orders to dust off CBRN gear and start prepping training material for other units. Not sure if it has anything to do with any upcoming government announcements or if his CO is just getting paranoid. Either way shits getting real.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:31
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Apparently Trump is thinking of blocking travel from Europe/Italy and have 4-6 weeks of unemployment insurance. You idiot!
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Mar 11, 2020 22:33
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I have close to 10% of my family's *entire* net worth, (including house, IRAs, cars, poker bankroll, etc) in puts now, it's kinda wild. Only one n95 mask tho, I'm a loving failure as an actual prepper.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:35
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Baddog posted:I have close to 10% of my family's *entire* net worth, (including house, IRAs, cars, poker bankroll, etc) in puts now, it's kinda wild. balls out, o7
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Mar 11, 2020 22:43
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Inner Light posted:What does this sentence mean? My brain is not parsing it, did you miss a word? The idea of liquidity is that if you need an overnight loan, there's an ocean of institutions willing to lend it to you. When markets decline this rapidly, there's an increased risk coming from undercapitalized banks (say, for example, regional banks here in Texas that have 30-45% of their outstanding loans out to oil producers, who right now are largely overleveraged and looking at unprofitability for at least a quarter). As an institution, why should I expose myself to that increased risk when the return is so little, and there's the Fed over there offering essentially an unlimited guaranteed loan capacity? It's not a surprise that private liquidity is drying up.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:44
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Josh Lyman posted:Apparently Trump is thinking of blocking travel from Europe/Italy and have 4-6 weeks of unemployment insurance. You idiot! Why is this idiotic? I'm not disagreeing just curious of your opinion. It may also not be a travel ban but a mandatory quarantine which the State Dept already has for China.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:50
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Does anyone here have substantially different psychological reactions to degenerate gambling with options versus holding the underlying directly? I don't do options right now and my biggest problem is freaking out and exiting positions too early, and I'm wondering if options feel more like the money is gone immediately, which might blunt that. (Or maybe I'd just lose more money faster.)
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Mar 11, 2020 22:51
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Inner Light posted:Why is this idiotic? I'm not disagreeing just curious of your opinion. It may also not be a travel ban but a mandatory quarantine which the State Dept already has for China.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:56
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saintonan posted:The idea of liquidity is that if you need an overnight loan, there's an ocean of institutions willing to lend it to you. When markets decline this rapidly, there's an increased risk coming from undercapitalized banks (say, for example, regional banks here in Texas that have 30-45% of their outstanding loans out to oil producers, who right now are largely overleveraged and looking at unprofitability for at least a quarter). As an institution, why should I expose myself to that increased risk when the return is so little, and there's the Fed over there offering essentially an unlimited guaranteed loan capacity? It's not a surprise that private liquidity is drying up. I'm not understanding the link from very large Fed loan capacity to a lower bank willingness to take on risky overnight loans to private borrowers. What does the Fed offering unlimited loans to banks have anything to do with Joe Dirt Oil Co. requesting a loan from Regional Bank? Why does that mean the bank is less willing to lend to Joe Dirt, or that Regional Bank's liquidity is drying up? In my mind increased repos would mean banks are more likely to lend to Joe Dirt because they have that guaranteed capacity from the Fed, but it seems I'm missing something.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:57
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Josh Lyman posted:He wants to stop “inflows” wrt corona Yah, probable that we already have more infected per capita than those countries, so it's the wrong thing to be focused on now.
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Mar 11, 2020 22:58
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Inner Light posted:In my mind increased repos would mean banks are more likely to lend to Joe Dirt because they have that guaranteed capacity from the Fed, but it seems I'm missing something. Overnight loans (what the Fed is specifically backstopping in this case) are typically bank to bank, not consumer or business loans.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:00
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FreelanceSocialist posted:I'd mention it but this is the degenerate gambling thread. I started adding to my BA position in my non-degenerate responsible adult account pretty much the moment it hit $190. It might be nice to have a thread for discussing long positions in individual holdings. Because the long term investing thread is not that place.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:04
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Bored As gently caress posted:So the market doesn't always just go the opposite direction the day before. It loving sucks. Everyone would do that if it was that east. The market is manic and at times completely irrational. See: yesterday's rally. There was no good news nationally, yet stocks went up 1k pts. So timing the market is really difficult. There's a saying that "time in the market always beats timing the market" meaning over 25 years, you're gonna see great gains on your investments. Of course, free money was just a joke and I fully expect to take some 100% losses when there isn't a bounce of whatever direction I see it going. The vast majority of my money is in things I won't be touching for the next 15-25 years. The cap I've set on this play money experiment is 2% of my portfolio. Will read Dwight's post, these short term options feel really easy to understand. Further out expiration and betting specific stocks seems more daunting like I'm going to gently caress up and buy something that is less than ideal because I could have tweaked some aspect of it but didn't because I don't know what I'm doing.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:09
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raminasi posted:Does anyone here have substantially different psychological reactions to degenerate gambling with options versus holding the underlying directly? I don't do options right now and my biggest problem is freaking out and exiting positions too early, and I'm wondering if options feel more like the money is gone immediately, which might blunt that. (Or maybe I'd just lose more money faster.) Purely psychologically I find it much easier to deal with a time based (as in, I have an idea, and I know it will play out by June 2020, say) trade using options than the underlying, because I can just set up an options trade to expire when the idea does. It really depends on how your brain works, though. If you made ten options buys and nine of them went to zero, can you handle that? Even if the tenth one returns 1400%? It's not an easy thing to do, mentally. And if you're just slinging options around, buying here, closing when up 20%, chucking them down 10%, I think you're better off just trading the underlying due to spreads and execution, but I may be in the minority on that.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:10
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raminasi posted:Does anyone here have substantially different psychological reactions to degenerate gambling with options versus holding the underlying directly? I don't do options right now and my biggest problem is freaking out and exiting positions too early, and I'm wondering if options feel more like the money is gone immediately, which might blunt that. (Or maybe I'd just lose more money faster.) I've been trading options for three entire hours and my first instinct is to say it feels exactly like trading a stock. Looking at my Fidelity screen it looks like any other position with a green or red number I know I can make real by pressing a button. If anything the psychology may lead you to exiting positions even earlier because if you are OTM you know you are quickly approaching -100% where regular trading you aren't (unless apocalypse).
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Mar 11, 2020 23:13
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Bored As gently caress posted:So the market doesn't always just go the opposite direction the day before. It loving sucks. Everyone would do that if it was that east. The market is manic and at times completely irrational. See: yesterday's rally. There was no good news nationally, yet stocks went up 1k pts. So timing the market is really difficult. There's a saying that "time in the market always beats timing the market" meaning over 25 years, you're gonna see great gains on your investments. I know you know my thoughts on CZR but yikes. I would think LVS, WYNN and MGM have more immediate upside potential in the next 4 weeks because I have a feeling that China / Macao will soon announce lifting of travel restrictions to Macao from the mainland. This should cause a bump in the stock price and any lingering declines will take several months to become apparent. LVS, WYNN and MGM are also down significantly more than CZR over the last 2 months so the rebound potential of CZR is lower.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:19
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Lote posted:I know you know my thoughts on CZR but yikes. I would think LVS, WYNN and MGM have more immediate upside potential in the next 4 weeks because I have a feeling that China / Macao will soon announce lifting of travel restrictions to Macao from the mainland. This should cause a bump in the stock price and any lingering declines will take several months to become apparent. LVS, WYNN and MGM are also down significantly more than CZR over the last 2 months so the rebound potential of CZR is lower. I like it. LVS is a great long term hold, the future of gaming is in south east asia and they already derive more than 60% of reveneus from asia.
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Mar 11, 2020 23:29
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Stocks will go UP tomorrow, 3%
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Mar 11, 2020 23:33
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Not if Donald has anything to say about it!
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Mar 11, 2020 23:52
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I got loving murdered today because bond yields went up another 20 basis points while stocks dropped 5%. I have been mostly treading water over the past couple of weeks because I have been hedged against treasury yields, but everything sold off in tandem today for some god awful reason. However I don't think it will last as monetary policy will obviously be pushed to the extreme with this. Bunds are almost at -1%, treasuries will follow. Also, put in an order for BA at $165. I feel like it is touching the poo poo, but AIrbus is also getting beat up from this mess. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 00:05 on Mar 12, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 00:01
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My ~~~Big Finance Guy~~~ is telling me that his firm is expecting S&P between 2,350 and 2,500 by July You heard it here first!!
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Mar 12, 2020 00:02
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GoGoGadgetChris posted:My ~~~Big Finance Guy~~~ is telling me that his firm is expecting S&P between 2,350 and 2,500 by July That sounds awfully optimistic.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:08
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With volatility so high, the /ES has this easy trading signal. If the 5 minute chart stochastic dip diverges from the chart dip, you can play it for 10/20 point profit: Doesn't backtest as well when the VIX goes back to boring, but for now it hits every time. I usually enter the market when the K and D cross.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:09
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Nitrousoxide posted:That sounds awfully optimistic. Based on what? Where are these numbers all coming from? What determines a prediction of 40% versus 30% versus 20% drop in the market? CNBC is already flush with people pulling numbers out of their rear end so they can get their name on television and feed off the fear. However where do their predictions come from?
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Mar 12, 2020 00:17
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Sepist posted:With volatility so high, the /ES has this easy trading signal. If the 5 minute chart stochastic dip diverges from the chart dip, you can play it for 10/20 point profit: Can you ELI5
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Mar 12, 2020 00:20
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Based on what? Where are these numbers all coming from? What determines a prediction of 40% versus 30% versus 20% drop in the market? CNBC is already flush with people pulling numbers out of their rear end so they can get their name on television and feed off the fear. However where do their predictions come from? No idea!! I just get a kick out of talking to him because he's THE wealth management guy for a handful of $100M+ net worth individuals and always sounds so gosh darn confident
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Mar 12, 2020 00:20
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MetaJew posted:Can you ELI5 Buy dips, sell peaks?
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Mar 12, 2020 00:21
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