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Cheesemaster200 posted:It's already out of the bag. Ity was out of the bag before it left China. This isn't Ebola where everyone who gets it starts melting. This is a virus where 80% of those infected won't think of it more than a cold or cough. It was never going to be contained. The problem isn't the people who test positive for the virus, the problem is the people who have it and never knew.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:27
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I don't think a virus wants anything. There hasn't been that many deaths to curb its spread anyhow  it's not like 80% of infected drop dead right away
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Mar 12, 2020 00:31
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I think I am going to watch Chernobyl on TV this night. At least I know Chernobyl have a good ending.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:31
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Cheesemaster200 posted:It's already out of the bag. Ity was out of the bag before it left China. This isn't Ebola where everyone who gets it starts melting. This is a virus where 80% of those infected won't think of it more than a cold or cough. It was never going to be contained. The problem isn't the people who test positive for the virus, the problem is the people who have it and never knew. This would make it similar to H1N1, which both caused the Spanish Flu and the 2009 outbreak but it turns out it's so non-lethal that it's basically just part of regular flu season now and gets incorporated into the flu shot.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:34
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Colonel Cancer posted:I don't think a virus wants anything. There hasn't been that many deaths to curb its spread anyhow 'Wants x' is best read as 'more evolutionarily advantageous to do x over time'
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Mar 12, 2020 00:34
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I enjoy Fojar posting undeterred after his thorough owning just a few hours back.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:35
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We can kill this with global warming right?
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Mar 12, 2020 00:36
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We can kill global warming with it 
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Mar 12, 2020 00:36
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VanSandman posted:'Wants x' is best read as 'more evolutionarily advantageous to do x over time'
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Mar 12, 2020 00:38
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My 3 year old has never played a video game but maybe now is the time to introduce that
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Mar 12, 2020 00:39
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End of Shoelace posted:i hope its not unrealistic to think that projections of millions dead and hundreds of millions infected per country are based on the situation as it stands now, with exponential growth but in relatively small pools. does anyone have a projection for the number of cases in south korea before they started curbing it hard? i checked this, and if an estimation of new cases per day was made for south korea the 1st of this month, we would be seeing about 3000 cases every day. right now, they are at about 150. in short, projections of corona progression made in the exponential diagnose stages can be wildly inaccurate. not saying im taking the disease lightly though.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:39
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End of Shoelace posted:i checked this, and if an estimation of new cases per day was made for south korea the 1st of this month, we would be seeing about 3000 cases every day. right now, they are at about 150.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:42
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Ahmadinejad tweeted at China calling the coronavirus an engineered biological weapon, the absolute lad.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:43
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Norway now at 629 confirmed cases, we turned red!  (more than 10 confirmed cases per 100.000 people)(was 622 when I started this post)  Due to lack of test capacity testing is still only indicated for: - Contacts of confirmed cases - Travelers from high risk areas (Hubei Province, Italy, Austrian Tyrol, South Korea) - Health care workers who have been traveling outside Scandinavia - Patients admitted to a healthcare facility who have been traveling outside Scandinavia - Patients admitted to a healthcare facility with respiratory symptoms regardless of travel history So real numbers will be a _lot_ higher than this. Main vector has been people going on skiing-vacations in the Alps feb-17th to 29th (winter break in Norway, schools stagger a 1 week break with some counties in week 8 and some in week 9). So we've basically had two weeks of uncontained local spread where health authorities thought they had control of a few initial patients but a lot more must have been undiscovered carriers. South East Norway Regional Health Trust have more than 600 healthcare workers (out of about ~50.000 total) under quarantine already.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:43
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I've definitely been holding out hope for some evidence that weather might mitigate all this. I mean, the fact that like Vietnam hasn't really exploded is kind of odd, although they got their first case in late January. At this point, just looking at the global distribution, it certainly feels like there's something to that hypothesis. And there are some things that make me slightly less pessimistic, like this report (although there is a lot of counter-evidence). And it took me like 6 read-throughs of the abstract of this thing and it makes it seem like warmer temperatures in cooler places makes it worse while higher temperatures in hot places makes it better:quote:Background There is no evidence supporting that temperature changes COVID-19 transmission. Methods We collected the cumulative number of confirmed cases of all cities and regions affected by COVID-19 in the world from January 20 to February 4, 2020, and calculated the daily means of the average, minimum and maximum temperatures in January. Then, restricted cubic spline function and generalized linear mixture model were used to analyze the relationships. Results There were in total 24,232 confirmed cases in China and 26 overseas countries. In total, 16,480 cases (68.01%) were from Hubei Province. The lgN rose as the average temperature went up to a peak of 8.72℃ and then slowly declined. The apexes of the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature were 6.70℃ and 12.42℃ respectively. The curves shared similar shapes. Under the circumstance of lower temperature, every 1℃ increase in average, minimum and maximum temperatures led to an increase of the cumulative number of cases by 0.83, 0.82 and 0.83 respectively. In the single-factor model of the higher-temperature group, every 1℃ increase in the minimum temperature led to a decrease of the cumulative number of cases by 0.86. Conclusion The study found that, to certain extent, temperature could significant change COVID-19 transmission, and there might be a best temperature for the viral transmission, which may partly explain why it first broke out in Wuhan. It is suggested that countries and regions with a lower temperature in the world adopt the strictest control measures to prevent future reversal. I mean, now that there are confirmed cases in tropical places, we'll know pretty soon whether or not it's a problem. And I'm looking at it again and like Spain isn't doing too well, and it's warmish, not tropical, though.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:45
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Illinois State University has joined the "please don't come back, germy students" club. Spring break was extended a week but campus is basically closed until late April; students aren't allowed back. Classes will all be e-learning, and the kids are supposed to stay home and attend from wherever that is. Campus housing closed (with case by case exceptions). https://news.illinoisstate.edu/2020/03/coronavirus-message-from-president-dietz/
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Mar 12, 2020 00:45
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bollig posted:I've definitely been holding out hope for some evidence that weather might mitigate all this. I mean, the fact that like Vietnam hasn't really exploded is kind of odd, although they got their first case in late January. At this point, just looking at the global distribution, it certainly feels like there's something to that hypothesis. And there are some things that make me slightly less pessimistic, like this report (although there is a lot of counter-evidence). And it took me like 6 read-throughs of the abstract of this thing and it makes it seem like warmer temperatures in cooler places makes it worse while higher temperatures in hot places makes it better: Oh yeah and Singapore would be a pretty good counter-example to 'hot weather kills Covid'
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Mar 12, 2020 00:49
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Would it be inappropriate for me to teach my students "The Masque of the Red Death" right now? Heh.
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Mar 12, 2020 00:49
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I know some professors who have been involved in coronavirus response meetings, and it sounds like they're all planning to go digital as soon as possible; you can't just cancel classes because then students may demand tuition refunds and then the university goes bankrupt. And universities are probably going to have a lot of admissions as we steadily slide into a recession
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Mar 12, 2020 00:59
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QuarkJets posted:I know some professors who have been involved in coronavirus response meetings, and it sounds like they're all planning to go digital as soon as possible; you can't just cancel classes because then students may demand tuition refunds and then the university goes bankrupt. Hey, at least I read a lot of books and can sorta write and generally had a good time at uni!! 
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Mar 12, 2020 01:05
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Mar 12, 2020 01:06
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Turns out March is a really good time for a bunch of video games to come out
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Mar 12, 2020 01:26
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Chinese data shows that live service video games profited greatly from the quarantine.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:27
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Fojar38 posted:Turns out March is a really good time for a bunch of video games to come out I suggest playing Plague Inc
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Mar 12, 2020 01:27
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For Fojar, I recommend a high school math book.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:28
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Lil Swamp Booger Baby posted:I suggest playing Plague Inc Leaning towards Animal Crossing and Doom tbh
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Mar 12, 2020 01:32
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Just wanted to stop by and say I'm enjoying my time in the c-virus screening clinic. Boiling alive in isolation gear is awesome and I'll probably get this poo poo despite washing my hands every 8 seconds.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:32
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a mysterious cloak posted:Just wanted to stop by and say I'm enjoying my time in the c-virus screening clinic. Boiling alive in isolation gear is awesome and I'll probably get this poo poo despite washing my hands every 8 seconds. speaking as a current covid sufferer: you're a hero and when this is over i will personally shower you with gold
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Mar 12, 2020 01:34
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covid golden showers would make a p good username
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Mar 12, 2020 01:35
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Golden showers for that user? How can I get in on this.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:35
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The Covid is stored in the balls.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:36
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friendly 2 da void posted:speaking as a current covid sufferer: you're a hero and when this is over i will personally shower you with gold drat. whats your condition right now?
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Mar 12, 2020 01:38
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where does "posting" lie on the mild-critical spectrum?
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Mar 12, 2020 01:39
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Well enough to post Hold off on the roast(ing fire to turn you to ash)
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Mar 12, 2020 01:42
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Fojar38 posted:where does "posting" lie on the mild-critical spectrum? diarrhea is one of the symptoms...
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Mar 12, 2020 01:42
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End of Shoelace posted:drat. whats your condition right now? feels like extremely lovely flu with added lung distress. no sneezing or congestion though, so i guess there's that. can't talk without getting short of breath. i'm gonna go to the ER pretty soon if it gets any worse. crossposted from the d&d thread: the worst mistake we made with this disease was believing the narrative of "most people get a mild illness". when it turns out that mild is defined as not needing loving intubation quote:As the World Health Organization adviser Bruce Aylward clarified last week, a “mild” case of COVID-19 is not equivalent to a mild cold. Expect it to be much worse: fever and coughing, sometimes pneumonia—anything short of requiring oxygen. “Severe” cases require supplemental oxygen, sometimes via a breathing tube and a ventilator. “Critical” cases involve “respiratory failure or multi-organ failure.”
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Mar 12, 2020 01:44
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MarcusSA posted:The 'roni is stored in the balls.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:51
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I got the virus. These sniffles and sneezes are not mild allergies I have the virus I swear to God I swear.
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Mar 12, 2020 01:53
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It's crazy that we're in a scenario where living the Ur-Goon lifestyle makes you a model citizen
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Mar 12, 2020 01:58
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Lol restrictions from flying to and from europe (excluding the UK)
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Mar 12, 2020 02:05
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