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"Get out of your puts" would be bad advice without knowing where you bought them and what the strike is. If the CZR deal goes through, then you could expect the price to be ~$9.93 in June. If you bought 10 strike puts, then you'd have an intrinsic of 0.07 in June. If you bought for .03 that's still pretty good! If the CZR deal doeesn't go through, then you gamble that the price will hit $5 or $4. If you bought 10 strike puts, then you'd have intrinsic of 6. Do you want to gamble that the deal goes through? Did you get in at a price where the intrinsic in july/august will look attractive? I bought 6 strike puts expiring Sep 18. If it hit 4 they'd have an intrinsic of 2. I bailed out at .80 because I'd rather collect a fat return than continue to roll the dice on the acquisition.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:15
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:3/23 is still a while 11 days away buddy. They were wildly OTM (I’m a deeply stupid person) and unlikely to convey unless an asteroid containing an airborne strain of HIV were to hit the earth. Probably could’ve held for longer, but I’m ok with 400% on a very dumb move.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:15
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Write an ATM spoo option, either side, expiring in 25 hours and you have 2.5% before you start losing money. I wasn't too active in options in 2008 so I don't remember if it got that crazy back then (maybe September), but this is insane.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:17
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pmchem posted:that cash is covering margin calls lmao, so what? Even if you are right, forced selling is what you want to buy buy buy.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:18
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Dont get me wrong, we could go down another 15% (or more!) but this is where you start buying. This hasnt happened in over a decade guys, dont gently caress it up again
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Mar 12, 2020 20:19
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greasyhands posted:lmao, so what? Even if you are right, forced selling is what you want to buy buy buy. Speaking of forced selling, $ERI is in free fall right now and now down 40% on the day.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:21
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greasyhands posted:Dont get me wrong, we could go down another 15% (or more!) but this is where you start buying. This hasnt happened in over a decade guys, dont gently caress it up again I'm slowly loading up on OXY right now. Do you have anything else you have in your sights?
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Mar 12, 2020 20:25
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greasyhands posted:Dont get me wrong, we could go down another 15% (or more!) but this is where you start buying. This hasnt happened in over a decade guys, dont gently caress it up again Wish I had the liquidity to take advantage of this poo poo.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:26
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VTSAX, VTIAX, and VTBLX are still gonna be around in 35 years, right? 
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Mar 12, 2020 20:27
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Josh Lyman posted:Okay I get it now. How many have you been able to do these past weeks? Just 1-2 per day? 1 - 2 per day. There was one earlier before that huge shoot up from the Fed repo, and there's one brewing right now but it's not 100% there (although I am already in the long position with a 2495 stop)
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Mar 12, 2020 20:28
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VIX!
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Mar 12, 2020 20:29
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Pollyanna posted:VTSAX, VTIAX, and VTBLX are still gonna be around in 35 years, right? I certainly hope so, I just contributed a bunch to VTSAX for my IRA. Hedging with toilet paper though
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Mar 12, 2020 20:30
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gently caress man, all my puts keep printing. Do I hold until tomorrow? Cashing out on a few to get actual gains rather than unrealized ones. Keeping a few others. They just keep climbing up and up.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:34
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I cashed out. Waiting to see what open brings tomorrow. Too unpredictable.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:35
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I have a substantial amount saved for a down payment that has been in a 90% bond fund for some time. It is tempting to liquidate.... 10k or so and throw it at SP500. I don't know how to trade options yet so I would go long. Thoughts? It's gambling I understand, and I'd be ok if that went down a significant portion as I'm not imminently buying a home. There's no other liquidity for me to play with.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:38
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That sounds like a terrible idea.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:39
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:"Get out of your puts" would be bad advice without knowing where you bought them and what the strike is. There theoretically should be a stock price at which the El Dorado people are forced to bail out of the deal because the financial prospects are so dire from the stock price dropping and the shareholders of El Dorado peace-ing out. It's currently a 1.2b market cap company that wants to merge with a 6b market cap in order to create a 2.5b market cap company with 22 billion in debt. On paper it's a bonkers deal. Edit: also, doing the numbers, since $ERI was trading north of $70 last month. This merger combined with the Coronavirus downturn has wiped out ~$4 b in market cap and down now 80% from the ATH 3 weeks ago. Shareholders who bought in over the past year in anticipation of the $CZR deal are getting straight crushed worse than shareholders $CCL / Carnival which is only down 66% from ATHs. Lote fucked around with this message at 20:49 on Mar 12, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 20:40
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Inner Light posted:I have a substantial amount saved for a down payment that has been in a 90% bond fund for some time. It is tempting to liquidate.... 10k or so and throw it at SP500. I don't know how to trade options yet so I would go long. Thoughts? It's gambling I understand, and I'd be ok if that went down a significant portion as I'm not imminently buying a home. money for a downpayment on a house is not money to play with.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:41
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Inner Light posted:I have a substantial amount saved for a down payment that has been in a 90% bond fund for some time. It is tempting to liquidate.... 10k or so and throw it at SP500. I don't know how to trade options yet so I would go long. Thoughts? It's gambling I understand, and I'd be ok if that went down a significant portion as I'm not imminently buying a home. Watch a bunch of YouTube how-to vids on options to get down on the terminology and basics. I lurked on r/wallstreetbets for weeks before I put any money in.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:41
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ketchup vs catsup posted:money for a downpayment on a house is not money to play with. Seriously, keep it safe while all this drama plays out. Houses are about to be cheaper as well.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:43
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Bored As gently caress posted:gently caress man, all my puts keep printing. Do I hold until tomorrow? Cashing out on a few to get actual gains rather than unrealized ones. Keeping a few others. They just keep climbing up and up. The way I always look at it, I look at the current price I could sell it for and think about what I would do if I had that much sitting in cash would I buy this position right now? If I'm on the fence I generally hold it (gains can evaporate while you do this though!). I unloaded some puts I was happy to hold until they expire because the break even for the person buying them was laughably unrealistic in my opinion. (It still could hit sure, but I'm not confident). Basically the stock has to fall an additional 50% in 2 weeks for this guy to turn a profit. If someone wants to make that bet I'm glad to exit the position. Could I write puts for there? Sure I could, but I view that as too risky too. It could plummet on that one day, or could spike in that one day. Why do I want to take that risk on instead of locking in the profit?
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Mar 12, 2020 20:43
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Inner Light posted:I have a substantial amount saved for a down payment that has been in a 90% bond fund for some time. It is tempting to liquidate.... 10k or so and throw it at SP500. I don't know how to trade options yet so I would go long. Thoughts? It's gambling I understand, and I'd be ok if that went down a significant portion as I'm not imminently buying a home. Id get out of bonds even if it meant going cash
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Mar 12, 2020 20:43
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Sepist posted:1 - 2 per day. There was one earlier before that huge shoot up from the Fed repo, and there's one brewing right now but it's not 100% there (although I am already in the long position with a 2495 stop) I watched this work earlier today, and now it looks like we got the same indicators at 15:24 and 15:39, but there's like no window of time to execute this second one; you'd have to have mashed buy as soon as that bar closed to get in, and any later you're buying in just to eat a loss. Am I playing along wrong, or was this just a "hard to play" example? (Didn't play with money cuz I don't know what I'm doing yet)
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Mar 12, 2020 20:46
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I watched this work earlier today, and now it looks like we got the same indicators at 15:24 and 15:39, but there's like no window of time to execute this second one; you'd have to have mashed buy as soon as that bar closed to get in, and any later you're buying in just to eat a loss. This one is a bit tougher than usual, but there is support at 2400 which kind of helps set your entry Edit: I'm out after 20 points profit, I hate trading the last 10 minutes Sepist fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Mar 12, 2020 |
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Mar 12, 2020 20:47
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greasyhands posted:Id get out of bonds even if it meant going cash What's the rationale here? Won't bonds continue to print at .5% or whatever whereas cash is 0%? Could T-bills go to 0? The best thing is probably to have it in a savings account :-/ Marcus is somehow still at 1.7% though I expect that to change imminently.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:47
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Inner Light posted:I have a substantial amount saved for a down payment that has been in a 90% bond fund for some time. It is tempting to liquidate.... 10k or so and throw it at SP500. I don't know how to trade options yet so I would go long. Thoughts? It's gambling I understand, and I'd be ok if that went down a significant portion as I'm not imminently buying a home. Go get yelled at in this thread: https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=2892928
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Mar 12, 2020 20:47
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Time for udow, holding overnight
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Mar 12, 2020 20:50
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I am getting my tax software today, got my K-1 yesterday from my CPA. About to look at funding my 2019 ROTH. I'm thinking I shouldn't buy into the market until we have 1-2 days in a row without a circuit breaker being tripped. Pseudo timing the market attempt. Tell me how dumb and/or genius I am.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:50
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Sepist posted:This one is a bit tougher than usual, but there is support at 2400 which kind of helps set your entry Yeah not looking for cash on a platter just wanted to know if I had an accurate read on the problem and timing. I feel like this would be an excellent thing to have a thinkscript indicator on. Once you're in are you looking to exit at a specific limit? This seems like a good spot for an OCO bracket and in my curiosity of futures I've read plenty of others open with equal balanced brackets and just try to win off getting it right more than wrong.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:51
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Inner Light posted:What's the rationale here? Won't bonds continue to print at .5% or whatever whereas cash is 0%? Could T-bills go to 0? Yes, there are lots of savings accounts that will pay more interest than bonds currently are and bonds can go down... if yields go up, the value of your bond holdings will go down. Were talking about a relatively small amount of money so its not that big of a deal but bonds are a bubble
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Mar 12, 2020 20:52
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Yeah not looking for cash on a platter just wanted to know if I had an accurate read on the problem and timing. I feel like this would be an excellent thing to have a thinkscript indicator on. I usually let it ride since I'm trading with fun money, but once I hit 15 points I lock in 8, and once I hit 25 I lock in 20. OCO could be tough with the +10/-10 whipsaws
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Mar 12, 2020 20:54
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Man, stocks, 10-yr yield and gold are all down again. People are just moving to cash, poo poo's weird.
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Mar 12, 2020 20:57
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bollig posted:Man, stocks, 10-yr yield and gold are all down again. People are just moving to cash, poo poo's weird. Investors: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3TaixVn8Jo
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Mar 12, 2020 20:59
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Welp, we did it. 10% down in a day. Good job. Guessing the Fed will have to start offering free rim-jobs soon.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:00
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Haha imagine being the people doing the ceremonial exchange closing today. Theyre all smiling and laughing and clapping. Biggest 1 day percentage drop since 1987 i think?
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Mar 12, 2020 21:01
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My guess is a few of them threw up in the bathroom a few minutes before walking out there.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:03
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pixaal posted:The way I always look at it, I look at the current price I could sell it for and think about what I would do if I had that much sitting in cash would I buy this position right now? If I'm on the fence I generally hold it (gains can evaporate while you do this though!). I unloaded some puts I was happy to hold until they expire because the break even for the person buying them was laughably unrealistic in my opinion. (It still could hit sure, but I'm not confident). Thanks, that definitely helped put it into perspective. I ended up closing out of my disney puts, both of which were 400%+ gains, and CCL (also good gains), and other puts that had made me more than a 100% gain. Ended up making $7k with a total of $7k invested over the course of 3 weeks. If only I invested $7k to start with! But I'm happy to take what I can get. Now I'm playing with around $4k of their money, so we'll see what happens in the next few days.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:05
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I've been HODLing too long and am down 17%* over 3mos. Why am I such a dumbass? >> PLEASE MOCK ME << *I was down 30% until today when I sold a stock and turned around to short it.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:06
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Maybe they just bumped into an old friend before going on the floor. And by old friend, I mean an escort and cocaine. And by bumped into, I mean... uh... bumped.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:06
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Incredible. Just incredible. This puts us back to the Dec 2018 lows, and before that August 2017. And you know... compare the economy both of those times to today, with a global pandemic looming, this is probably still quite shortable.
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Mar 12, 2020 21:07
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