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TheKevman posted:Except it's almost assuredly not going to be like that. I just can't see how this is a v shaped recovery, at all. Great post, I think you make a lot of sense here.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:18
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There was basically 0 warming to oil war, and its not like financial experts know anything about pandemics. The market being due for a correction? Some signs, but a quick fall and oil war? What was that sign?
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Mar 13, 2020 01:20
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This thread is also a good example of r/wsb and the free money mentality. This is the $XIV blow up and the thread slowly realizes that a VIX increase of more than 100% in a day roughly resulted in the underlying value of $XIV going to zero after hours in trading even though it closed at the end of the market day at $70. https://www.reddit.com/r/tradeXIV/comments/7vi6oa/xiv_after_hours/?sort=old
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Mar 13, 2020 01:23
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I've been thinking about this, and I don't think we're anywhere close to the bottom. Kind of the way I felt about this is that the stock market and economy could have basically blooped along without an exogenous shock. I don't even pretend to understand anything beyond the basics of ~*complex systems*~ but complexity allows a system to be robust to smaller shocks, a demise which would otherwise be more likely but softer, but when the end finally comes, it is swift and catastrophic in a more complex system. More to the point, I just don't think the inevitable outcome of this debt binge coupled with an insanely fragile labor market and a worldwide supply chain has been priced in. To that end, I think the 2nd order derivative of bad news is positive. The news is getting worse and rate that it is getting worse is growing. The news is only going to get worse from here on out and the behavior is going to cascade. Anyway that was pretty obtuse but I had to type it out. I've really been trying to talk myself out of doom and gloom as far as the markets are concerned, but man it's hard to see anyone looking at the news, valuations and the general S&P 500 trend, and saying 'yeah now I'm ready to buy some stock'. Anyway we'll see how things go tomorrow. I also could be really wrong and in two weeks basically everyone who's not carnival cruises is like 'no yeah we have not had a dip in sales'.
bollig fucked around with this message at 01:38 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 01:24
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Lote posted:Reposting this classic Wait this guy leveraged himself and someone exercised the options he "sold", and ended up with a negative balance, and then he didn't have to pay it because Robinhood just ate the loss?
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Mar 13, 2020 01:30
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Bored As gently caress posted:Wait this guy leveraged himself and someone exercised the options he "sold", and ended up with a negative balance, and then he didn't have to pay it because Robinhood just ate the loss?  Robinhood doesn't eat the loss. They ask you to pay or take you to court where you will lose the lawsuit.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:33
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:There was basically 0 warming to oil war, and its not like financial experts know anything about pandemics. It wasn't hard at all to see that Corona was going to cause problems here in the US, and even if it didn't the supply chain disruption was going to impact earnings. (And I'm not just using the benefit of hindsight--you can see guys like greasy and me mentioning it in the thread a month ago.) In the meantime the market was hitting new highs. It was crazy. Though I don't think anyone here expected THIS decline, THIS fast. Could've made millions if positioned correctly.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:35
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Agronox posted:It wasn't hard at all to see that Corona was going to cause problems here in the US, and even if it didn't the supply chain disruption was going to impact earnings. (And I'm not just using the benefit of hindsight--you can see guys like greasy and me mentioning it in the thread a month ago.) In the meantime the market was hitting new highs. It was crazy. Same. I could've easily made $500k if I took all my savings and checking money and put them in Robinhood puts.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:49
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If you pay attention to politics you know Trump doesn't back down and has been down playing it. The market was going up still with people dying. It was fair to say even if people ignored this the big things to short like airlines would have low profits. now earnings aren't until April so you'd need a weekly or a May put to play that universe. That was going to pay because of course sales would be down for international at the very least. With the sudden alarm and panic on the market on top a sure 20% gain turned into a 500% I don't think most people were expecting this much when they bought puts on airlines in February. pixaal fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Mar 13, 2020 |
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Mar 13, 2020 01:51
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Agronox posted:It wasn't hard at all to see that Corona was going to cause problems here in the US, and even if it didn't the supply chain disruption was going to impact earnings. (And I'm not just using the benefit of hindsight--you can see guys like greasy and me mentioning it in the thread a month ago.) In the meantime the market was hitting new highs. It was crazy. This. I think this thread was broadly bearish in February; we all could see that number go up, but there was lots of reason for it to hurry up and go down. I like to run the exercise of "If I could have a time machine I'd <X>" because I've barely managed to be able to develop the skill of crafting it into an abstract statement and turn it into action in the present. If I could have a time machine I'd have liquidated more of my equities at P/E 25, buy a loving ton of -.25 delta SPY puts, and then hedge that to get delta neutral with synthetic longs & SPY shares.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:52
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this is just too juicy, long some $DIA, $USO and $X (lol, sketchy)  nasty close, prolly in too early 
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Mar 13, 2020 01:58
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It wasn’t hard to see the economy slowing before all of this. And liquidity tightening because of the strong dollar and government borrowing. I think a lot of us here were in cash and a few of us caught a piece of that initial drawdown. I just didn’t think I’d regret the allocation in my 401k/IRA.
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Mar 13, 2020 01:59
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also anyone see $JNUG today including AH  haha reminds me of the XIV poo poo that happened. not touching the poop!!!!
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Mar 13, 2020 02:01
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I have 150 dollars and a TFSA, is there anything I can do to profit off of this crash? lmao
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Mar 13, 2020 02:03
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Jack Daniels posted:also anyone see $JNUG today including AH Jnug is usually ok. It turns out people would rather hold cash than gold lol Toalpaz posted:I have 150 dollars and a TFSA, is there anything I can do to profit off of this crash? lmao Get a loan from your bank and use that to buy Disney puts, 80 4/17
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Mar 13, 2020 02:19
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If I've never traded before and want to get in on this action is there anyway to get my money available? It looks like Robinhood limits you to 1000 instantly and then you have to wait 2-3 days before any further funds clear? I see something about Robinhood Gold but I don't see an option on my account to use it. I also have a Schwab account, but you need to fill out a paper application and submit in person to be allowed to trade options lol.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:20
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Megasabin posted:If I've never traded before and want to get in on this action is there anyway to get my money available? It looks like Robinhood limits you to 1000 instantly and then you have to wait 2-3 days before any further funds clear? I see something about Robinhood Gold but I don't see an option on my account to use it. You don't need to apply for it in paper for Schwab and also don't worry about the 2 days, there will be Crazy poo poo happening in 2 days.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:21
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Megasabin posted:If I've never traded before and want to get in on this action is there anyway to get my money available? It looks like Robinhood limits you to 1000 instantly and then you have to wait 2-3 days before any further funds clear? I see something about Robinhood Gold but I don't see an option on my account to use it. Oscar Wild posted:Lol at all the people piling into he thread right now. No one in here knows where the bottom is.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:21
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Megasabin posted:If I've never traded before and want to get in on this action is there anyway to get my money available? It looks like Robinhood limits you to 1000 instantly and then you have to wait 2-3 days before any further funds clear? I see something about Robinhood Gold but I don't see an option on my account to use it. Toalpaz posted:I have 150 dollars and a TFSA, is there anything I can do to profit off of this crash? lmao Heres your buy signal folks lol I mean this in the best possible way: please dont get into investing hoping to win big Buy ETFs or spy. Do not trade options. In fact, you cant unless you lie to robinhood which is what most people do.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:23
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:Heres your buy signal folks lol This is the gambling thread, proper advice in this situation would be to buy severely OTM options with extremely far expiries and sell when it's up or down 1%, and see if you can reliably make money with whatever strategy you can come up with. Then, with the $30 you make or the last $30 you still have, go and buy a book on options!
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Mar 13, 2020 02:25
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Megasabin posted:If I've never traded before and want to get in on this action is there anyway to get my money available? It looks like Robinhood limits you to 1000 instantly and then you have to wait 2-3 days before any further funds clear? I see something about Robinhood Gold but I don't see an option on my account to use it. I know of ways that you can get in on the action without options, but you will lose money. Have you ever heard of a leveraged ETF and an inverse leveraged ETF? You can get leveraged volatility ETFs too.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:25
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Megasabin posted:I also have a Schwab account, but you need to fill out a paper application and submit in person to be allowed to trade options lol. That's because they want to talk to you and make sure you read that book. You really want to understand what options are before actually buying them and you drat well better before writing them. Many people have gone broke with options. You need to understand your risks.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:26
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TSLA is still at $560.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:29
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Toalpaz posted:I have 150 dollars and a TFSA, is there anything I can do to profit off of this crash? lmao Check this poo poo out. It’s like hitting the lotto or a slot machine https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreet...utm_name=iossmf
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Mar 13, 2020 02:29
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Lote posted:I know of ways that you can get in on the action without options, but you will lose money. Have you ever heard of a leveraged ETF and an inverse leveraged ETF? You can get leveraged volatility ETFs too. No one asking understand how leveraged ETF balancing works.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:34
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Cheesemaster200 posted:TSLA is still at $560. that's the real miracle here imo
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Mar 13, 2020 02:34
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jokes posted:and also don't worry about the 2 days, there will be Crazy poo poo happening in 2 days. lol totally this
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Mar 13, 2020 02:37
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skipdogg posted:Check this poo poo out. It’s like hitting the lotto or a slot machine I loved 1R0NYMAN's plan of box spreads. Seemingly free money, until one person asks, "What if they execute the options before the expiration date?"
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Mar 13, 2020 02:39
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I'm not going all in on my net worth. I've been following this thread and wall street bets for a bit and it seems fun. I've set aside some money that I'm 100% comfortable just losing so I'd like to join in on the fun. I 100% know I'm just gambling.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:41
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UnfurledSails posted:that's the real miracle here imo I swear it will be one thousand again by end of year, for no reason other than number go up! Maybe the hype really is dead.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:41
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Meyers-Briggs Testicle posted:Get a loan from your bank and use that to buy Disney puts, 80 4/17 Okie Dokie
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Mar 13, 2020 02:44
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Oscar Wild posted:No one asking understand how leveraged ETF balancing works. I own a leveraged 2x short ETF. The DJIA goes down 5% one day and then up 5% the other. The 1x short ETF has a value of 1. The levered ETF has a value of 0.99 its original value.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:49
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Jacks back, baybee (sorry your forum got closed for being a cesspool of toxic humanity btw)
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Mar 13, 2020 02:50
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Can you please take a break from crashing, markets? I think you've made your point already.
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Mar 13, 2020 02:52
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Asia looks p bad
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Mar 13, 2020 03:01
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Trudeau’s wife is now another positive, expect Trudeau himself to get it as well
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Mar 13, 2020 03:06
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If COVID-19 takes out Bitcoin it will all have been worth it
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Mar 13, 2020 03:09
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If symbols like UVXY and VIXY are already up 250% compared to a month ago, it's far too late to try and make money off of them. The time to invest in them was February 20th. It is highly unlikely that investing in them now would net you any good returns, even if you did manage to time it correctly. This is why you don't time the market.
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Mar 13, 2020 03:09
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Wallstreetbets is amazing right now. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/fhgdra/i_just_woke_up_literally_to_a_margin_call_from/
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Mar 13, 2020 03:18
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greasyhands posted:Jacks back, baybee (sorry your forum got closed for being a cesspool of toxic humanity btw)  gambling account re-opened cause this looks too good to not take a decent dip in here  DIA, USO, X... I would say I'm avoiding the pure garbage/coin-toss trash this round, but X feels dangerous *stretches collar*
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Mar 13, 2020 03:21
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