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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race?
This poll is closed.
R. Allin-Khan 6 1.60%
R. Burgon 80 21.33%
D. Butler 72 19.20%
A. Rayner 35 9.33%
I. Murray 5 1.33%
P. Flaps 177 47.20%
Total: 375 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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sinky
Feb 22, 2011



Slippery Tilde

Oodles posted:

That’s a bit misleading. What about Netherlands, Finland, etc with their schools still open?

Yeah I think it's out of date already, since the football was cancelled this morning.

e: NICE

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Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.

sebzilla posted:

They're dumb fucks too.

The chart should include them, otherwise it is rather misleading.

Sloth Life
Nov 15, 2014

Built for comfort and speed!
Fallen Rib
If all this chaos leads my job to realise I can do this poo poo just as well from home, it will be a silver lining.

Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

peanut- posted:

A significant number of public events need a government edict for cancellation to be able claim on insurance. Without that they likely do not have the cash to give refunds and cancellation would mean instant bankruptcy.

So could it be the government is trying to prop up the insurance industry ? Or just delay things

Active Quasar
Feb 22, 2011

sebzilla posted:

^^^ has she considered the joys of home birth?

My baby is due in April. We're doing the contingency planning on that exact scenario right now. What fun!

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

Octolady posted:

I keep seeing British medical officials saying they're "following the science" in the government response to coronavirus but what are they actually talking about here? What does Britain know that has made everyone else's response so wrong and their officials incorrect?
Genuinely if there's any evidence online of the science they're talking about I'd love to see it.

I know anecdotally that doctors in a lot of other countries see the British-trained medical practitioners as being bizarrely non-interventionist, with a 'let nature take its course, don't want to panic anyone unnecessarily' approach. 'The science' as applied here seems to be 'don't waste time/money looking for things, particularly if it causes anxiety, treat things when they're evident', which means that once something is definitely wrong with you, things go relatively well, but with a suspicion that a lot of things that could have been caught earlier tend to be missed until they're more worrying. One example is cervical smears, which are given routinely at a later age, and less frequently, than in other places in Europe. That possibly translates into a 'most people seem to get mild symptoms (whatever that means), so only treat the ones that really need it, don't waste time testing everyone' mentality.

XMNN
Apr 26, 2008
I am incredibly stupid

sinky posted:

Yeah I think it's out of date already, since the football was cancelled this morning.

e: NICE

notably not by the government.

if people and organisations are going to take precautions that the government is unwilling to prescribe because it would be "unscientific" then the economic outcome is the same and its seriously going to undermine their position as an authority on how to handle this

I really think they've hosed up by leaning so hard on only doing "evidence-based" things at the expense of people's confidence in their willingness/capability to do anything

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
I do wonder if the premier League postponing will be the thing that makes the public realise it's actually a big deal

TheRat
Aug 30, 2006

Jose posted:

I do wonder if the premier League postponing will be the thing that makes the public realise it's actually a big deal

That seems to have been a thing in the US at least. A bunch of fuckwits going "hang on, my sports are cancelled, this thing might be bad"

ANYTHING YOU SOW
Nov 7, 2009

Octolady posted:

I keep seeing British medical officials saying they're "following the science" in the government response to coronavirus but what are they actually talking about here? What does Britain know that has made everyone else's response so wrong and their officials incorrect?
Genuinely if there's any evidence online of the science they're talking about I'd love to see it.

I don't think they have really explained what models they are basing on, but maybe UK gov is listening more to behavioural science "experts" and less to epidemiologists compared to other countries.

https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1238281167499145221

a pipe smoking dog
Jan 25, 2010

"haha, dogs can't smoke!"
I had to send someone home on Wednesday with a fever which has been getting worse and is now pretty clearly coronavirus. Other people have had their team's sent home for less but as she's on work experience rather than an actual employee apparently it doesn't count.

I'm going to be very mad if I die and intend to haunt the office.

Oodles
Oct 31, 2005

Disnesquick posted:

My baby is due in April. We're doing the contingency planning on that exact scenario right now. What fun!

We had a home birth for one of ours, I’d recommend it.

I wouldn’t recommend it being an accidental home birth though.

Isomermaid
Dec 3, 2019

Swish swish, like a fish

Octolady posted:

I keep seeing British medical officials saying they're "following the science" in the government response to coronavirus but what are they actually talking about here?

Well they're following it in the sense that the science is all pointing one way, and the UK are kind of loosely tagging along, but a long way behind

oxford_town
Aug 6, 2009

Tomberforce posted:

My partners sister is due a baby in Surrey in May. That is shaping up to be interesting I'm not sure how hospitals getting overrun will affect maternity provision but it can't be good...

XMNN posted:

e: I am pretty concerned for the guy who's girlfriend is due to give birth in the next week or so. she's like 38 or something so I suspect you probably have to go to hospital for it?

Probably going to be relatively spared from the impact on the rest of the hospital; sickness aside, the midwives and O&G docs are going to be pretty far down the list of people to be redeployed elsewhere. The anaesthetists will be stretched but I imagine that maternity remains a priority area to cover. The number of peripartum women who need ITU care is small and, again, they would be high up in the queue for a bed if they did need one.

COVID-19 thus far seems not to confer increased risk in pregnant women. Data from neonates is limited as there are few confirmed cases, but apparently none of the neonatal cases have been severe infections.

Pesmerga posted:

I know anecdotally that doctors in a lot of other countries see the British-trained medical practitioners as being bizarrely non-interventionist, with a 'let nature take its course, don't want to panic anyone unnecessarily' approach. 'The science' as applied here seems to be 'don't waste time/money looking for things, particularly if it causes anxiety, treat things when they're evident', which means that once something is definitely wrong with you, things go relatively well, but with a suspicion that a lot of things that could have been caught earlier tend to be missed until they're more worrying. One example is cervical smears, which are given routinely at a later age, and less frequently, than in other places in Europe.

I am a British-trained medical practitioner so obviously I have a vested interest here.

I think we generally have a degree of skepticism of the limits of medical intervention. Some of this relates to top-down NHS rationing & stuff that we can't prescribe even if we wanted to (e.g. very expensive novel cancer treatments); I think this gives the profession somewhat of a utilitarian viewpoint on things. In other areas I think this relates to us not being paid in a fee-for-service model i.e. in the NHS, not being paid per scan/procedure/intervention/etc.

Smears are a good example. More is not always better. The cervical screening programme starts at 25 in England. This paper, for example, estimates that, to pick up one extra invasive cancer in women aged 20-24 we would need to do between 12500-40000 additional examinations and treat between 300-900 people - there is a resource implication there, but also a lot of harm from over-diagnosis and over-treatment.

Other countries, notably the US, practice regular 'routine gynae exams'. We don't do that, again because resource plays a part, but also because there there seems to be no benefit in doing them for women without symptoms of illness. Of course, in the US, there is a fee per exam payable to the doctor - so a significant incentive for those docs to promote them as an important procedure.

Which circles me back to COVID-19.

I feel anxious about what's coming up. Most, if not all, of us in the NHS do. I see a lot of people here & in professional circles demanding action & looking at the disparity between the UK and elsewhere. I do however hear from those working in public health that they have a lot of faith in what Whitty et al are doing. For the all the myriad faults of the government it feels like they genuinely are taking the advice of 'the experts', which is what most of us have been bemoaning serial governments for failing to do before.

I agree that I wish they'd show their working.

My interpretation is that they think COVID-19 is out of the bottle and will be circulating for a long time (which is probably true if you look at the US, not to mention if & when it takes hold in lower income countries), hence they have chosen to try and time a significant outbreak on their terms. If this works & herd immunity successfully develops, it minimises the length of time of disruption from the pandemic in the UK. Other countries without that degree of herd immunity (especially China, where infection rates have slowed significantly) will either get subsequent major outbreaks or will be in continual shutdown for a long time.

I don't know if what they're doing will work. I don't have any meaningful influence to change it anyway, all I can do is my best at the frontline. Stay safe, goons.

LeafyGreens
May 9, 2009

the elegant cephalopod

ANYTHING YOU SOW posted:

I don't think they have really explained what models they are basing on, but maybe UK gov is listening more to behavioural science "experts" and less to epidemiologists compared to other countries.

https://twitter.com/StuartJRitchie/status/1238281167499145221

Thanks for this, I suspected as much but it's pushing all my friends into complacency and it's driving me mad.

I don't get how they can trust a small un-specialised advisory group over literally every other medical health official in other countries.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.
Panic buying update: Sainsbury's had run out of branflakes.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you

oxford_town posted:

Probably going to be relatively spared from the impact on the rest of the hospital; sickness aside, the midwives and O&G docs are going to be pretty far down the list of people to be redeployed elsewhere. The anaesthetists will be stretched but I imagine that maternity remains a priority area to cover. The number of peripartum women who need ITU care is small and, again, they would be high up in the queue for a bed if they did need one.

COVID-19 thus far seems not to confer increased risk in pregnant women. Data from neonates is limited as there are few confirmed cases, but apparently none of the neonatal cases have been severe infections.


I am a British-trained medical practitioner so obviously I have a vested interest here.

I think we generally have a degree of skepticism of the limits of medical intervention. Some of this relates to top-down NHS rationing & stuff that we can't prescribe even if we wanted to (e.g. very expensive novel cancer treatments); I think this gives the profession somewhat of a utilitarian viewpoint on things. In other areas I think this relates to us not being paid in a fee-for-service model i.e. in the NHS, not being paid per scan/procedure/intervention/etc.

Smears are a good example. More is not always better. The cervical screening programme starts at 25 in England. This paper, for example, estimates that, to pick up one extra invasive cancer in women aged 20-24 we would need to do between 12500-40000 additional examinations and treat between 300-900 people - there is a resource implication there, but also a lot of harm from over-diagnosis and over-treatment.

Other countries, notably the US, practice regular 'routine gynae exams'. We don't do that, again because resource plays a part, but also because there there seems to be no benefit in doing them for women without symptoms of illness. Of course, in the US, there is a fee per exam payable to the doctor - so a significant incentive for those docs to promote them as an important procedure.

Which circles me back to COVID-19.

I feel anxious about what's coming up. Most, if not all, of us in the NHS do. I see a lot of people here & in professional circles demanding action & looking at the disparity between the UK and elsewhere. I do however hear from those working in public health that they have a lot of faith in what Whitty et al are doing. For the all the myriad faults of the government it feels like they genuinely are taking the advice of 'the experts', which is what most of us have been bemoaning serial governments for failing to do before.

I agree that I wish they'd show their working.

My interpretation is that they think COVID-19 is out of the bottle and will be circulating for a long time (which is probably true if you look at the US, not to mention if & when it takes hold in lower income countries), hence they have chosen to try and time a significant outbreak on their terms. If this works & herd immunity successfully develops, it minimises the length of time of disruption from the pandemic in the UK. Other countries without that degree of herd immunity (especially China, where infection rates have slowed significantly) will either get subsequent major outbreaks or will be in continual shutdown for a long time.

I don't know if what they're doing will work. I don't have any meaningful influence to change it anyway, all I can do is my best at the frontline. Stay safe, goons.

Thanks for your insight, it's appreciated. :)

peanut-
Feb 17, 2004
Fun Shoe

Octolady posted:

I keep seeing British medical officials saying they're "following the science" in the government response to coronavirus but what are they actually talking about here? What does Britain know that has made everyone else's response so wrong and their officials incorrect?
Genuinely if there's any evidence online of the science they're talking about I'd love to see it.

I'm no expert but as far as I'm aware the government has done quite a lot of work into how Britain should respond to a pandemic (and specifically an influenza pandemic) and are largely just following that so far.

e.g. here's a detailed review of studies on school closures in an influenze pandemic that basically concludes *shrug*, maybe a marginal benefit if done very early.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/316203/School_Closures_Evidence_review.pdf

LeafyGreens
May 9, 2009

the elegant cephalopod

Thanks, it is genuinely good to see they've been working on it

Jel Shaker
Apr 19, 2003

Pablo Bluth posted:

Panic buying update: Sainsbury's had run out of branflakes.

Shut the front door, why?!? I thought no one else likes them!

Miftan
Mar 31, 2012

Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

oxford_town posted:

Stay safe, goons.

You too mate.

NinpoEspiritoSanto
Oct 22, 2013




Jel Shaker posted:

Shut the front door, why?!? I thought no one else likes them!

Need something to do with all the loo roll

oxford_town
Aug 6, 2009

Pesmerga posted:

Thanks for your insight, it's appreciated. :)

Thanks. I like to think I can tell when the civil servants and experts of various stripes are being leaned on by the politicians. I remember meeting a higher-up at NHS England a while ago who had clearly been dealt a poo poo hand in contract negotiations by Matt Hancock & his office (nothing related to COVID-19). Watching that press conference with Johnson, Whitty and Vallance didn't feel like that.

Pablo Bluth
Sep 7, 2007

I've made a huge mistake.

Jel Shaker posted:

Shut the front door, why?!? I thought no one else likes them!
Boomers.

Isomermaid
Dec 3, 2019

Swish swish, like a fish
"No I said I'm not taking the bus to town any more because it takes the *contagious*"

Strom Cuzewon
Jul 1, 2010

"I'll protect myself with herd immunity" sounds a lot like "i'll hide from the missile inside the crater" in my book. Yeah it can help, but the major damage is gonna be before that point.

Strom Cuzewon
Jul 1, 2010

Borrovan posted:

Give me a shout if you fancy a pint after or need restaurant recommendations in Swansea, there's good places for both if you know where to look (& gently caress all if you don't)

Gonna be skyping in after all, thanks anyway dude.

Shogi
Nov 23, 2004

distant Pohjola
I suppose I might understand the UK’s reaction being smart from more than just an inhuman economic perspective if there seemed to be any kind of thought-through planning to protect the vulnerable? That prof on Newsnight gave reasonable epidemiological advice around slowing spread, so why is the advice and official backing on self-isolation still so poo poo? Why do we still have people going into dementia wards with a fever and a cough? Is the trust I work for just particularly ill-prepared or does this reflect a lack of topdown seriousness around protecting the people this thing tends to kill? I found myself having to do my own research to help people make calls over whether they should avoid working at the site (pregnancy, immunosuppressant meds etc)

Isomermaid
Dec 3, 2019

Swish swish, like a fish

Shogi posted:

I suppose I might understand the UK’s reaction being smart from more than just an inhuman economic perspective if there seemed to be any kind of thought-through planning to protect the vulnerable? That prof on Newsnight gave reasonable epidemiological advice around slowing spread, so why is the advice and official backing on self-isolation still so poo poo? Why do we still have people going into dementia wards with a fever and a cough? Is the trust I work for just particularly ill-prepared or does this reflect a lack of topdown seriousness around protecting the people this thing tends to kill? I found myself having to do my own research to help people make calls over whether they should avoid working at the site (pregnancy, immunosuppressant meds etc)

That kind of thing is an absolute dereliction of responsibility from government, and makes me so angry. I phoned my parents yesterday, they're in their 80s and mum had a recent heart op so she's just terrified because everyone's either saying "panic" or "don't panic, it's only affecting the vulnerable" and nobody is saying "ok here are the extra steps you need to take if you're vulnerable". But she's not working with other people in a ward that's just absolutely crazy. I kind of expected they'd come out of their cobra huddle with targeted advice for front line staff but it's just been piss poor

escapegoat
Aug 18, 2013

Jel Shaker posted:

Shut the front door, why?!? I thought no one else likes them!

Got to use up all that loo roll somehow.

e:Should read rest of page before jumping in.

escapegoat fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Mar 13, 2020

Borrovan
Aug 15, 2013

IT IS ME.
🧑‍💼
I AM THERESA MAY


TheRat posted:

That seems to have been a thing in the US at least. A bunch of fuckwits going "hang on, my sports are cancelled, buncha liberal snowflakes overreacting AS USUAL and ruining the bloody footie, I'm gonna go lick a bunch of immunocompromised pensioners that'll show the cunts"
FTFY

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you
Government apparently decreed that local elections will be taking place as per usual.

Microplastics
Jul 6, 2007

:discourse:
It's what's for dinner.
It's happening, my office is shutting next week, minimum of 2-3 months. Glad i brought all my catfood home from the office.

Junkenstein
Oct 22, 2003

Wales v Scotland postponed very last minute.

Pesmerga
Aug 1, 2005

So nice to eat you
Today's official stats are out, 290 more infections, taking us to 798.

Olewithmilk
Jun 30, 2006

What?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1238366264747270144?s=20

The difference between 40 million people having the disease and everyone getting it is ~1-3 days depending on the infection rate, I hope everyone takes the eventual quarantine order seriously & immediately!

Goldskull
Feb 20, 2011

My girlfriends workplace asked if she was coming in tomorrow (she's a make up artist/trainer, and very customer facing in a big department store) and she said that's your call to make. She's had a cough for the last 2 weeks which is nothing out of the ordinary given her immune system is in a constant battle with literally being in peoples faces about 70% of the day, and asthmatic on top, so everytime she has been at work and coughed everyone looks at her like she has the plague. Management advice, call 111, who advised her to self isolate for 7 days despite not having the recognized symptoms.
I can see why the 111 lady was covering their back saying that though. They'd already decreed at her work they can't touch customers/taking public testers/samples out of harms way, which kind of defeats the object of most of her job. I've been out of work for 2 weeks and nothing on next week as for a freelancer in my trade this poo poo couldn't come at a worse time, it's traditionally quiet as everyone's out of budget til the April restart, offices are pushing everyone to work from home (which I can quite easily do) and IR35 fucks everyone off.

And guess who booked a £2000 holiday to New York about 3 weeks ago?

Azza Bamboo
Apr 7, 2018


THUNDERDOME LOSER 2021
The Tories are banking on the public having a more catastrophic view of how this will unfold than what actually unfolds. Then they can say "see, the so called experts will have taken you out of your jobs and cost us all a lot of money for nothing."

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Olewithmilk posted:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1238366264747270144?s=20

The difference between 40 million people having the disease and everyone getting it is ~1-3 days depending on the infection rate, I hope everyone takes the eventual quarantine order seriously & immediately!

I mean the bigger thing here that important people that could bring up but aren't is that the plan requires everyone to get it. But there are many people that 'getting it' will kill. So the plan is just abandoning these people. Have lung or immune system issues? You're literally being left to die.

And if the hospitals overload, then even healthy people are at risk. The 'becomes critically ill' percentage becomes the new death percentage as the ICU's fill up.

We have approx. 4000 intubation units and nothing the government has done is going to stop us running out just like Italy.

Regarde Aduck fucked around with this message at 15:31 on Mar 13, 2020

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Red Oktober
May 24, 2006

wiggly eyes!



Goldskull posted:


And guess who booked a £2000 holiday to New York about 3 weeks ago?

The holiday might well be cancelable - my partner and I have just cancelled our New York trip and been offered a full refund despite having non refundable rooms. :shrug:

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