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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed. |
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| R. Allin-Khan |
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6 | 1.60% |
| R. Burgon |
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80 | 21.33% |
| D. Butler |
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72 | 19.20% |
| A. Rayner |
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35 | 9.33% |
| I. Murray |
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5 | 1.33% |
| P. Flaps |
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177 | 47.20% |
| Total: | 375 votes | ||
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Bardeh posted:Some more up to date stats: am i reading this right but is there a close to 98% chance that if you're 80+ and get this that you'll need hospital care or you'll die? e: yeah my mistake, i misread it hemale in pain fucked around with this message at 00:48 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 00:44
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Prince John posted:That's much lower than some of the earlier bar graphs I remember, for the 70 and 80+ age groups. Good news potentially? Am I reading that right in that its not an updated statistic, but an estimate/model for what would happen in UK/US?
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Mar 17, 2020 00:45
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hemale in pain posted:am i reading this right but is there a close to 98% chance that if you're 80+ and get this that you'll need hospital care or you'll die? It says 27% of symptomatic cases require hospitalization in 80+..? Where are you gettin 98% from?
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Mar 17, 2020 00:46
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Prince John posted:That's much lower than some of the earlier bar graphs I remember, for the 70 and 80+ age groups. Good news potentially? it's part of why i consider the model itself to be highly optimistic and over reliance on its outcomes could create a laxer approach and make a worse situation never give a optimistic lowball and timeframe to a manager nevermind a politician playing to financial markets rather than public health
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Mar 17, 2020 00:47
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OwlFancier posted:It says 27% of symptomatic cases require hospitalization in 80+..? Where are you gettin 98% from? Ohh i see, sorry i was being dumb and didn't fully read it i thought it was 27% requiring hospitalization and then 70% requiring critical hospital care because im an idiot
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Mar 17, 2020 00:47
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OwlFancier posted:It says 27% of symptomatic cases require hospitalization in 80+..? Where are you gettin 98% from? I think they're adding 27.3% and 70.9% together which is....not correct
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Mar 17, 2020 00:48
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Prince John posted:That's much lower than some of the earlier bar graphs I remember, for the 70 and 80+ age groups. Good news potentially? its based on the idea everyone gets care, probably. anyone have those italian breakdowns to hand? its like loving 30% and 40% mortality for those two age groups now they're out of ICU space
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Mar 17, 2020 00:50
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stev posted:My wedding's in September and I'm pretty loving on edge about it. My wedding is supposed to be in 2 weeks. How do you think i loving feel? We got insurance before they closed the doors on it, but the venue isn't saying anything about cancellation and all of the suppliers are carrying on as normal. Our worry is that even if 80% of the people drop out, we can still technically have a wedding as the venue had a minimum number of people but that was just for cost, not for going ahead with things. As such, if they put the onus of cancelling on us, and we do, then the insurance might not cover it because we could have gone ahead with the wedding. It's a bit of a shitter because we've already had 6 people drop out because they fit into the higher risk category and want to avoid all unnecessary contact with other people until the whole thing blows over. We really don't need this after the year we've had :/
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Mar 17, 2020 00:51
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Had a lovely discussion this evening with my at risk, soon-to-be 70 yr old parents. Apparently it's just swell that we're doing absolutely gently caress all, because that will be better for the economy in the long run. Apparently our divergence in strategy from every other country on earth isn't cause for alarm. Something something experts. Are we the most credulous fuckwits on the planet? I feel like I'm going to have a loving aneurysm before this is all over.
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Mar 17, 2020 00:53
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Prince John posted:That's much lower than some of the earlier bar graphs I remember, for the 70 and 80+ age groups. Good news potentially?  I dunno, that's not exactly great for the older folks
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Mar 17, 2020 00:53
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https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1239602602876305408 Ah, think I see where the policy went wrong.
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Mar 17, 2020 00:54
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https://twitter.com/Horse_Jeans/sta...ingawful.com%2F
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Mar 17, 2020 00:55
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jaete posted:
I think I was comparing it against this graph, so a significant drop compared to 15% for the 80+ bracket. But yeah, the caveats mentioned above are noted - potentially not an accurate forecast. Sanford posted:It is really great and super flexible and, for example, my boss let me take off what came to almost sixty days over two years when we were struggling through IVF treatment, and never even mentioned it impacting on my pay. People with kids often talk about how great it is that you can leave early or come in late and you're just trusted to sort it out yourself and let your team know and get your work done. People often work from home just because, and there is a long standing non-formal policy that if you're ill but get your work done from home, we won't record it as sickness. If the culture is that good in general, and there's just one bad manager detested by all, I've seen an open letter signed by everyone lead to them moving on. Prince John fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 00:59
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My workplace has now shifted to work from home and they let everyone take their big monitors and even tower PCs containing wildly expensive GPUs (we're machine learning specialists) home with them. I don't know what sorcery I pulled to find one of the few sane businesses left in this country but thank loving god I did. Now to just overcome the looming sense that I'm about to lose someone important to me (don't know who yet!), and also somehow get my old uni to let me know my grant number and funding source so I can finally submit my loving E-thesis, the last step between me and finishing this PhD once and for all.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:11
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1239602602876305408 thinking people would understand Boris Johnson?
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Mar 17, 2020 01:23
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https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032?s=21 So apparently, their initial model was based on the statistics for viral pneumonia rather than the WHO's COVID-19 stats?
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Mar 17, 2020 01:25
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I do factory work, and there's no way of getting a 12 ton machine and required accoutrement out of there. Could give it a go, stick it in the communal shed we have.  [e]: Just seen a fb post by an old colleague who voted against a Labour government (because Corbyn and dread "socalism"), now loving seething that the Tories aren't giving a flying gently caress about people (him - low wage warehouse worker) who will be hosed financially because of the way they're handling the situation. It's literally the "I never thought the Face-eating leopard party would eat my face!" post in the wild. Pesky Splinter fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 01:25
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Apraxin posted:https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1239602602876305408 We're "leading the world" in "keeping the economy growing" and "backing business". gently caress the old folk.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:26
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Gavrilo Princip posted:My workplace has now shifted to work from home and they let everyone take their big monitors and even tower PCs containing wildly expensive GPUs (we're machine learning specialists) home with them. I don't know what sorcery I pulled to find one of the few sane businesses left in this country but thank loving god I did. I thought you already finished it? Or was that submitting and now you have to do the corrections/amendments?
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Mar 17, 2020 01:28
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Prince John posted:That's much lower than some of the earlier bar graphs I remember, for the 70 and 80+ age groups. Good news potentially? The less good news is those stats ignore capacity issues... which could be a bit of a problem https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1239680856265981957?s=19
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Mar 17, 2020 01:36
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Full report: https://twitter.com/RisetoClimate/status/1239699583992643584?s=19
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Mar 17, 2020 01:41
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Answers Me posted:https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1239612169597136897 gently caress it, Corbyn is standing down and McDonnell is 68. Let him shout at Boris until the leadership is sorted.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:42
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Darth Walrus posted:https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1239669605586604032?s=21 To quote the old adage - garbage in, garbage out. I wonder if their use of the viral pneumonia stats was just a holdover from when they started the model or if there was pressure/blinkers being applied to fit the data to the desired outcome.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:45
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Just seen photos in a local FB group of our Lidls taken mid afternoon. Absolutely cleared almost everything from shelves, and freezers completely emptied. Some people in tears on the group because they haven't been able to get anything or order things online - baby formula, milk, anything. Ed: who else is glad of their brexitocalypse ration stocks we got in November 2018! I was wondering about getting a bag of those bird feeding fat balls in in case things get desperate because I for sure won't be nibbling at those unless I am! Jaeluni Asjil fucked around with this message at 01:51 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 01:47
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Every single Bluetick who sneered at everyone saying the government got it wrong should have their career in tatters. They won't, but they should.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:49
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Bardeh posted:Some more up to date stats: Those stats are kind of worrying for a reason that isn't obvious: if you run the numbers, then regardless of age group COVID-19 has a 50% mortality rate among critical cases. You survive chiefly by not getting a severe case.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:49
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Jedit posted:Those stats are kind of worrying for a reason that isn't obvious: if you run the numbers, then regardless of age group COVID-19 has a 50% mortality rate among critical cases. You survive chiefly by not getting a severe case. If that figure is the same for all age groups then they might just be using a simpler model that assumes identical mortality rates, possibly due to lack of data. Or not.
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Mar 17, 2020 01:54
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Gonzo McFee posted:Every single Bluetick who sneered at everyone saying the government got it wrong should have their career in tatters. actually they didn't get it wrong, the science just changed always following the science
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Mar 17, 2020 02:01
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:I thought you already finished it? Or was that submitting and now you have to do the corrections/amendments? Yeah, I finished my amendments and whatnot and have actually submitted the hard bound version already, it's the E-thesis that serves as the electronic version of a thesis submission form. How was it somehow easier to print off my thesis and get it bound and handed in while working a regular 9-5 than it is to get the postgrad office to just send me my funding source and grant number. Stop making endless forms that demand to know my whereabouts and travel plans and actually respond to my emails jesus loving christ I want this done.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:04
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Gavrilo Princip posted:Yeah, I finished my amendments and whatnot and have actually submitted the hard bound version already, it's the E-thesis that serves as the electronic version of a thesis submission form. Things have obviously changed since my day! We had to submit 4 or 5 copies of the hard bound at some extortionate price each. 1 for the Senate House, 1 for the College, 1 for ourselves and I forget where all the rest went!
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Mar 17, 2020 02:09
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Gum posted:The less good news is those stats ignore capacity issues... which could be a bit of a problem The graph is the really bad loving news here. The red line, our max ITU bed capacity, is somewhere below 7 beds per 100,000 people. In the best predicted scenario, by early June we'll need around 90 beds per 100,000 people. If we don't properly implement quarantine and social distancing, it could be over 150. Most people who need a bed but can't get one will die. This is the 'flattening the curve' graph with our actual capacity superimposed. It's very loving obvious we are never flattening that curve enough for the health service to come close to coping.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:09
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our MD sent an email round yesterday saying there's going to be a meeting this morning about how our company is going to handle it, it's going to be interesting as we're sales focused, I wouldn't really have wanted to bet on them stopping what I would regard as nonessential sales visits to customer sites (and customers coming to ours) but I suspect that even if we don't, the customers policies will we supply equipment and services to pharma, power, water etc. so we're going to have to keep some support capacity running. that bit of my job could be done from home, and the practical elements which I would need the lab for are mostly sales-focused so I might not need to do much if they're not selling much there's a few other people (like the warehouse guy) who also need to be in, but almost everyone else can do all or most of their work from home. hopefully they do, because a lot of them have kids who might not be at school also there's a couple of them that I just don't trust to be sensible and not get themselves and then me infected
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Mar 17, 2020 02:12
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jabby posted:The graph is the really bad loving news here. it's loving frightening, and I can't believe they thought that this was even an option they considered e: I've just remembered that I actually had a discussion about the itu bed vs ventilator thing with my dad (ex-anaesthatist) this evening, and the plan during swine flu was to use ventilators in theatres and anaesthetic rooms for overflow which was a significant increase for his hospital (but not nearly enough to reach the lowest peak). he also said that if you were using all those then you'd be pushing or exceeding the limit for sustainable staffing of the people with the skills to run them, so I'm not sure if Boris' volksventilators are going to be much help XMNN fucked around with this message at 02:26 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 02:14
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 BLAHDDY 'OSE POIPE BAN though isn't it 
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Mar 17, 2020 02:16
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What else are you supposed to do when stuck at home but play with the hose pipe??? Also nice to clarify it's hunk idris rather than one of the other idrises, such as the mountain. OwlFancier fucked around with this message at 02:22 on Mar 17, 2020 |
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Mar 17, 2020 02:18
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https://twitter.com/BpsmithUk/status/1239630715215581184?s=20
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Mar 17, 2020 02:31
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:I was wondering about getting a bag of those bird feeding fat balls in in case things get desperate because I for sure won't be nibbling at those unless I am! Remind me, are you in London? Because the solution is to get outside of the M25, where stuff might be a little picked over but not apocalyptic. Or go to you local Polski Sklep, which is probably doing roaring trade right now. Anyway I made the mistake of looking at my work email before going to bed. Partially redacted, but: quote:Over the next [period], we will have to make some difficult decisions to ensure the long term health of our business. We are reviewing our people costs and will be making structural changes to the organisation to help the business cope with [impacts] from the current fuckening of the economy. Unfortunately, this will inevitably result in job losses. Yes, well done company founders, excellent thing to drop out at 9pm at night. (As I'm one of those [semi-ex] contractor scum I'm not too worried because I've got around a two year war chest built up, but some people are going to be absolutely bricking it tonight.)
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Mar 17, 2020 02:36
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jabby posted:The graph is the really bad loving news here. There's a slightly better case in the table, which is all four interventions at once - not sure why they didn't add that one to the graph. Still doesn't reduce it enough though...
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Mar 17, 2020 02:41
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Testing? Where we're going we don't need no testing! I suspect that they don't want to test widely because then they'd have a lot more asymptomatic cases making their statistics worse and they figure it would crash the economy even harder.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:44
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RockyB posted:Remind me, are you in London? Because the solution is to get outside of the M25, where stuff might be a little picked over but not apocalyptic. Or go to you local Polski Sklep, which is probably doing roaring trade right now. No, I'm in South Wales. I was just in London for a long weekend, back home now. There was more stuff in the Sainsburys Local, Tesco Express, Coop, NISA in central London than in any of my local town supermarkets! We don't have any 'ethnic' shops in my town. Lidl, Waitrose, M&S, Iceland, Co-op, Home Bargains and one or two independent greengrocers, butchers and bakers and a handful of market stalls on a Saturday. From the photos posted on our local FB group today, all our stores are wiped out, especially Lidl.
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Mar 17, 2020 02:46
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