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Also, https://twitter.com/SalehaMohsin/status/1240045093958057985?s=20  edit: ok that was the non-action number. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/mnuchin-warns-virus-could-yield-20-jobless-rate-without-action-k7wheob8 pmchem fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 00:10
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pmchem posted:Ok, so if Goldman asks for a loan against $100MM of CZR, and the Fed gives them $30MM, then CZR goes bankrupt and Goldman declines to repay the loan, what happens? Is the Fed going to cut Goldman off? Pursue them in court? Or did they just get $30MM for free? When the government makes a loan to a company and then the company defaults on that loan, what happens? This is not different.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:12
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These are banks. And they proved after '08 that they can do whatever they want. They were supposed to use the TARP money for lending, remember?
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Mar 18, 2020 00:14
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If a company goes bankrupt or is insolvent there will be opportunity to exercise options and close positions. The stock will continue trading with a “Q” added to the end of it. Otherwise people that took out short positions would just have free money. Or wrote any options contract.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:17
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Credit spreads still widening but commercial paper rates are going in the direction the fed wants. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qqrk
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Mar 18, 2020 00:18
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I'm not suggesting that Goldman is bankrupt in that scenario.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:19
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Bored As gently caress posted:We haven't yet seen the peak of infections yet. Buy puts on boomers. There's always OLD It's, uh, not doing too great right now.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:22
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I will probably spend the rest of my cash in the coming weeks on some REITs and dividend blue chips, assuming they're still depressed.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:25
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raminasi posted:There's always OLD Lmao amazing
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Mar 18, 2020 00:25
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pmchem posted:I'm not suggesting that Goldman is bankrupt in that scenario. Fed loans are awfully senior and Goldman can’t just decide to not pay back the loan. The CZR stock is collateral to secure the loan. If Goldman goes bankrupt with somehow 0 assets and so does CZR then yes the Fed loses money but this is definitely the fed providing liquidity by acting as the lender of last resort and not the stock buying they’re going to be doing in a couple months.
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Mar 18, 2020 00:27
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LLCoolJD posted:I will probably spend the rest of my cash in the coming weeks on some REITs and dividend blue chips, assuming they're still depressed. My winnings that have been taken off the table have all gone to blue chip dividends so far, I don't see regretting it even if we go down another 50% from here. If you always gamble everything into more bets you will always end up with $0
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Mar 18, 2020 00:33
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We just bounced off 2400 again... Why do I get the feeling that we will need to resurrect Volcker after this is all over? edit: S&P futures, that is FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 01:03 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 01:01
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pmchem posted:Can you guys contribute ideas for stocks that should be in a Dystopian ETF? Don’t have the encyclopedic knowledge to rattle off tickers but you’re gonna want: Biotech firms. Private security firms. Extreme luxury firms. So the ultra rich can be ultra rich. Custom yacht/car firms. Especially the ones that make armoured vehicles. Entertainment companies (pick your flavour of masses-controlling opiate) Alphabet. Soylent. Impossible Burger/Beyond Meat and other sci-fi foodstuffs.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:15
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*TESLA ISN'T AN ESSENTIAL BUSINESS, CALIFORNIA COUNTY SAYS *TESLA CAN MAINTAIN MINIMUM BASIC OPERATIONS, SHERIFF SAYS Seems like TSLA has to shutdown Fremont
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Mar 18, 2020 01:18
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pixaal posted:My winnings that have been taken off the table have all gone to blue chip dividends so far, I don't see regretting it even if we go down another 50% from here. If you always gamble everything into more bets you will always end up with $0 That's what I'm trying to avoid. Now that some quality dividend stocks are down at 10-year lows (or more), it seems like a pretty good time to start buying.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:25
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I think we're a month or two away from the point to buy in, personally.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:27
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doingitwrong posted:Don’t have the encyclopedic knowledge to rattle off tickers but you’re gonna want: I love the private security suggestion, anyone know of publicly listed private security stocks?
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Mar 18, 2020 01:27
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pmchem posted:Also, Very odd to see mnuchen being a voice for good. Pandemics for ya
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Mar 18, 2020 01:30
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Bored As gently caress posted:Which ones are good to get in on now? I wrote about $RRR earlier in the thread. High debt to equity ratio. Low amount of cash on hand. $PENN and $BYD are regional casino operators that both have large debt to equity ratios. $MGM is a good general casino stock. $WYNN and $LVS are more global casino stocks. The only upside for PENN and BYD this year would be federal approval of online gambling, a federal pause on defaults or bond repayments or quick resolution to coronavirus. CZR and ERI are acting as binary options. If the deal goes through, CZR rockets and ERI plummets and Vice versa.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:34
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I'm working under the assumption that regular ~January 2020~ style life won't resume till the end of 2021. under that assumption casino/hospitality/etc stocks won't survive without bailouts. I just don't know when they'll happen.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:37
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LLCoolJD posted:That's what I'm trying to avoid. Now that some quality dividend stocks are down at 10-year lows (or more), it seems like a pretty good time to start buying. Which ones? Even after the recent collapse I still feel like most stocks are too expensive, excepting dumpster fires like GE or BA.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:41
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I’m thinking $KO and $KHC for dividend stocks. Same with $WMT.
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Mar 18, 2020 01:54
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So maybe dividend ETFs are a better idea, then?
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Mar 18, 2020 02:00
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 https://twitter.com/calculatedrisk/status/1240089811722964997?s=21
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Mar 18, 2020 02:39
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For reference, McBride's blog: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ Don't read the post about COVID-19 testing rates. It will make you start drinking heavily. On a related note, the "quarantini" (Emergen-C and vodka) is actually decent. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 02:50 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 02:47
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FreelanceSocialist posted:For reference, McBride's blog: https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ I actually thought we had tested less people
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Mar 18, 2020 02:57
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FWIW, the Kentucky unemployment benefits website is inaccessible due to traffic.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:05
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saw in another thread (I think) that connecticut alone had 30K applications in the last 3 days. That's 10 regular WEEKS worth. in 3 days.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:07
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Welp, hope you didnt have casino calls. Nevada announces statewide shutdown of nonessential businesses, casinos https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2020/03/17/breaking-sisolak-announce-statewide-shutdown-nonessential-businesses/5074640002/
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Mar 18, 2020 03:09
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Bought an April put on BYD today. Thank you, Lote.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:19
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ketchup vs catsup posted:saw in another thread (I think) that connecticut alone had 30K applications in the last 3 days. Huh, who would have thought shutting down businesses would cause unemployment. drat, economics is hard.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:21
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Woodchip posted:Welp, hope you didnt have casino calls. Nevada announces statewide shutdown of nonessential businesses, casinos Not buying them today when the market was up was even dumber. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 03:21
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Bought an April put on BYD today. Thank you, Lote. Bought a June put. Thank you, again, Lote.
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Mar 18, 2020 03:23
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I had my finger on the BYD put button but pushed the UBER put button instead! I will not betray Lote again
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Mar 18, 2020 03:24
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PENN is a better put than BYD IMO. RRR, CZR, and PENN are going to 0. Boyd May survive. Edit: just noticed the custom title 
Lote fucked around with this message at 04:36 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 04:03
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I love all the internet chatter about landlords delaying rent and banks stopping mortgage payments and credit card companies going interest-free during all this. None of that is loving happening. If there's profit to be made, the machine is going to keep on chugging. Nice dream, though.
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Mar 18, 2020 04:20
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ketchup vs catsup posted:saw in another thread (I think) that connecticut alone had 30K applications in the last 3 days. In terms of this, I'm assuming that the move here would be SPY puts and hold until post 4/3 right?
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Mar 18, 2020 04:26
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java posted:In terms of this, I'm assuming that the move here would be SPY puts and hold until post 4/3 right? Problem is puts are super expensive. I grabbed 4/15 $240 and will probably unload them before the end of the week because SPY would have to loving crater for them to be worth any real money in April. But who knows? We might see $230 this week. Before you buy, run the numbers: https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/calculator/long-put.html
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Mar 18, 2020 04:40
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Additionally, $ERI is trading below 10. CZR is trading below 8.40 and currently at $5. If you own a share of $ERI and sell it now, you will have $10. You buy 2 shares of $CZR for 5. If the deal goes through in June, you will get $16.40 plus 0.2 shares of $ERI There is no point to hold $ERI if the deal is going through.
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Mar 18, 2020 04:42
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Bored As gently caress posted:Disclaimer: I’m loving dumb and new to day trading/weeklies. You can buy credit default swaps on bonds (as long as someone will or has written them), which will pay you out if the bonds default. But theres one big fat problem, you need an ISDA to do it. You aren't getting one if you post on Something Awful. The second, and more open to disagreement is that while subprime auto loan delinquency has been rising people have tended to hold onto their cars longer than they do their houses. They need those cars to get to work (if they have it), and they can, to an extent live in the car if they need to. A house is nicer to live in, but with few exceptions they aren't mobile enough to get you to work. Now, with lockdowns in effect, and significant layoffs in lower end service jobs maybe this changes. Keep in mind that Santander at least is a real bank, with other lending segments, and access to capital markets and the Fed. There are going to be a lot of other things happening with their stock that may obscure the results of a spike in subprime delinquency. New York State's unemployment website has also been getting hammered recently, so thats not great. Seattle put a moratorium on evictions for non-payment for 30 days. I'm not holding my breath on landlords helping residential tenants out if the Banks aren't cutting them any slack. For reference my Bank is planning for the eventual skip pay requests, but we'll see what happens. Keep in mind that CECL just went into effect and any TDRs or impairments are going to loving hammer Bank earnings.
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Mar 18, 2020 04:44
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