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Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!
lol thread rules changed but not before one of the closet alt-right types gave me this avatar

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speng31b
May 8, 2010

shovelbum posted:

The latest report says there is no "flattening the curve" except "lockdown until vaccine"

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

That's not really what the report says. It doesn't recommend lockdown until vaccine. It offers up a (logistically challenging) option of retriggering social distancing & closures in response to data suggesting flare ups after the initial curve. As others have pointed out cross-thread, the paper also does a good job pointing out that the curve can recur post-initial, but doesn't do much to clarify that we can't know the grade of the curve after a successful initial suppression - it likely won't be immediately back to the same grade of curve as initial, but it's hard to say what it will look like.

Lockdown until vaccine almost certainly isn't happening. Something like what the article suggests in terms of re-triggering measures in response to flare ups after a few months of lockdown could be possible. It may also be possible to mandate near-100% testing and isolate households & the vulnerable post-initial curve. Any path forward will certainly not be a "return to normal" for quite awhile, that much is at least safe to say.

There Bias Two
Jan 13, 2009
I'm not a good person

Burt Sexual posted:

So my wife’s best friend who had/has breast cancer, just came down with covid. Jfc she’s on chemotherapy too

I'm so sorry.

WeedlordGoku69
Feb 12, 2015

by Cyrano4747
hot take: literally every single world government is absolutely loving the dog Morally Inept-style on this pandemic, and blaming any particular one is always going to be missing the forest for the trees

it's not Trump that's the problem, it's not BoJo that's the problem, it's not China that's the problem, it's the entire loving global order that they are part of

GORDON
Jan 1, 2006

by Fluffdaddy

shovelbum posted:

I think no one outside SK and China have done meaningful tests during a big outbreak so basically no one knows how contagious or deadly it is but the answer is "alarmingly" to both

Well, yeah, but let's be alarmed about the correct things. I don't think there was a pre-vaccine pandemic in history that didn't run its course, infect everyone that was there to be infected, then either kill you or leave you immune.

Generally speaking.

Be cautious, but this isn't perpetual, nor the end of the world.

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

GORDON posted:

Well, yeah, but let's be alarmed about the correct things. I don't think there was a pre-vaccine pandemic in history that didn't run its course, infect everyone that was there to be infected, then either kill you or leave you immune.

Generally speaking.

Be cautious, but this isn't perpetual, nor the end of the world.

The thing is, letting it run its course could kill a lot more people than perpetual lockdown until vaccine, and we're at a point where society CAN sustain perpetual lockdown potentially, at least materially.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
letting it run its course will seem a lot less attractive in a couple months when you start to get into the millions dead

true - not the end of the world. but it will look different when you're in the middle of it

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

Mozi posted:

letting it run its course will seem a lot less attractive in a couple months when you start to get into the millions dead

true - not the end of the world. but it will look different when you're in the middle of it

Yeah it's loving appalling but the fastest vaccine in history from trials to market was like a decade right? Plus however long looking for the vaccine in the first place. Kids will be born in lockdown and grow up never seeing another person until their teens or twenties if it goes like that.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
the best plan i've seen is the repeated lockdowns -> let people out, virus spreads again -> lockdown -> spread -> lockdown -> repeat until vaccine is available

the question is if this is actually workable. we know that just letting millions die is workable, of course, based on past experience. how the modern world will handle it - i have no idea

also i'd imagine if this drag out for a while there will be tests to see if you've been previously exposed or not and i suppose those people could be out and about doing whatever they want.

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Switchblade Switcharoo
I don’t want to be the first goon to have someone close die...

I’m shocked in her good spirits though. She’s a fighter

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
tell her that mozi from the something awful forums is sending good vibes. or not, i'll do it anyways

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013
I'm sorry Burt.

I lived in northern Italy for five years. The woman who recruited me to work where I worked is from Bergamo and has parents that live there too. She hasn't seen them since the first weekend in March and doesn't expect to see them until the end of May at the earliest. My heart breaks for all of my friends over there.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



shovelbum posted:

Kids will be born in lockdown and grow up never seeing another person until their teens or twenties if it goes like that.

Good thing we goons pioneered this sort of adolescence two decades ago and can lead the way into this strange new world

E: sorry burt :(

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


Burt Sexual posted:

So my wife’s best friend who had/has breast cancer, just came down with covid. Jfc she’s on chemotherapy too

Hopefully there's still good odds, there's a bed and respirator free for her if she needs it. Could have been so much worse if it was in a month or two.

Disco Pope
Dec 6, 2004

Top Class!

shovelbum posted:

The latest report says there is no "flattening the curve" except "lockdown until vaccine"

https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Yeesh, grim reading. Thanks I guess! I'm not sure the conclusion from that is anything more than "to save the maximum number of lives, no other impacts considered, we should aim for eradication" though, and if that happens is just one of the exciting questions in our thrilling immediate future!

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003
If you consider a year under lockdown "lost" every single year of lockdown in the US will cost the equivalent of 4 million lives. Even if you consider that year only 1/3 wasted that is over a million lifetimes wasted.

Rime
Nov 2, 2011

by Games Forum

Burt Sexual posted:

I don’t want to be the first goon to have someone close die...

I’m shocked in her good spirits though. She’s a fighter

I am so loving sorry to hear this, Burt. :(

CRUSTY MINGE
Mar 30, 2011

Peggy Hill
Foot Connoisseur

Mozi posted:

tell her that mozi from the something awful forums is sending good vibes. or not, i'll do it anyways

Don't forget your prayer crystals, Marianne.

Inept
Jul 8, 2003

shovelbum posted:

Yeah it's loving appalling but the fastest vaccine in history from trials to market was like a decade right?

no

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

CRUSTY MINGE posted:

Don't forget your prayer crystals, Marianne.

ah crap, looks like they're low on juice. can anyone help me out with a quick crystal charge?

pixaal
Jan 8, 2004

All ice cream is now for all beings, no matter how many legs.


NihilismNow posted:

If you consider a year under lockdown "lost" every single year of lockdown in the US will cost the equivalent of 4 million lives. Even if you consider that year only 1/3 wasted that is over a million lifetimes wasted.

Everyone gets to live and be happy? What are you trying to say a life is only how much money and work you put into your job?

SerCypher
May 10, 2006

Gay baby jail...? What the hell?

I really don't like the sound of that...
Fun Shoe

Grape posted:

lol thread rules changed but not before one of the closet alt-right types gave me this avatar

Yeah you'd have to be Alt Right to dislike a facist dictatorship.

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Nihilism Now

NihilismNow
Aug 31, 2003

pixaal posted:

Everyone gets to live and be happy? What are you trying to say a life is only how much money and work you put into your job?

I would say a society where kids can't go to school and only the bare necessities for survival are performed and any socialising is strongly discouraged is not happy.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost

SerCypher posted:

Yeah you'd have to be Alt Right to dislike a facist dictatorship.

please find and quote somebody who posted, specifically, how much they love the CCP and how they have not made any mistakes in their handling of the situation since late november

VVV yeah sorry i know

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018
this is not tiresome to talk about at all

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



NihilismNow posted:

I would say a society where kids can't go to school and only the bare necessities for survival are performed and any socialising is strongly discouraged is not happy.

a few million dead grandparents will fix this

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

NihilismNow posted:

I would say a society where kids can't go to school and only the bare necessities for survival are performed and any socialising is strongly discouraged is not happy.

hey there will still be great entertainment like hearing about vaccine trials failing increasingly spectacularly

A Bakers Cousin
Dec 18, 2003

by vyelkin

Burt Sexual posted:

I don’t want to be the first goon to have someone close die...

I’m shocked in her good spirits though. She’s a fighter

Sorry we beat you 2 days ago Burt. Good luck though.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

SerCypher posted:

Yeah you'd have to be Alt Right to dislike a facist dictatorship.

You're really doing a bang up job following the conversation champ.

ClamdestineBoyster
Aug 15, 2015
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

Disco Pope posted:

Yeesh, grim reading. Thanks I guess! I'm not sure the conclusion from that is anything more than "to save the maximum number of lives, no other impacts considered, we should aim for eradication" though, and if that happens is just one of the exciting questions in our thrilling immediate future!

When you consider that it was supposed to reduce the worlds population by over 6 billion even with the best quarantine measures, and that the remaining people were supposed to be infiltrated by infected carriers to reduce that number even further, you get some idea that these people never intended to and likely aren’t capable of manufacturing a vaccine. The survival plan for the elite was extreme isolation and you can bet they had all their tp and ramen stacked to the ceiling before they started loving with poo poo and that the hoarders are literally trying to psychologically condition people to welcome an authoritarian state so the remaining billion or so people that survive would easily be fast tracked into death camps when they’re out seeking their essentials by the “helping hand” of the government.

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mycomancy
Oct 16, 2016

ClamdestineBoyster posted:

When you consider that it was supposed to reduce the worlds population by over 6 billion even with the best quarantine measures, and that the remaining people were supposed to be infiltrated by infected carriers to reduce that number even further, you get some idea that these people never intended to and likely aren’t capable of manufacturing a vaccine. The survival plan for the elite was extreme isolation and you can bet they had all their tp and ramen stacked to the ceiling before they started loving with poo poo and that the hoarders are literally trying to psychologically condition people to welcome an authoritarian state so the remaining billion or so people that survive would easily be fast tracked into death camps when they’re out seeking their essentials by the “helping hand” of the government.

What the gently caress is this nonsense?

Burt Sexual
Jan 26, 2006

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Switchblade Switcharoo

A Bakers Cousin posted:

Sorry we beat you 2 days ago Burt. Good luck though.

Jeez I’m sorry

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Hey guys my knuckles are already cracked and bleeding from all the extra hand washing. Anyone got a hot tip for this??

china bot
Sep 7, 2014

you listen HERE pal
SAY GOODBYE TO TELEPHONE SEX
Plaster Town Cop
https://www.wxyz.com/news/national/coronavirus/gov-whitmer-to-shut-down-dine-in-services-at-bars-and-restaurants-across-michigan

WXYZ Detroit posted:

Governor Gretchen Whitmer will shut down dine-in services at all bars and restaurants in Michigan amid the COVID-19 outbreak. The executive order went into effect at 3 p.m. Monday, March 16. Gyms, fitness centers & movie theaters will temporarily close under Whitmer executive order. The order will close down restaurants, cafes, coffee houses, bars, taverns, brewpubs, distilleries, clubs, movie theaters, indoor and outdoor performance venues, gymnasiums, fitness centers, recreation centers, indoor sports facilities, indoor exercise facilities, exercise studios, spas and casinos. Salons can stay open, but if a location is a salon and spa, the spa will still have to close.

I manage a hair salon, looking forward to figuring out how to socially distance until my boss lets us close

Bloody Hedgehog
Dec 12, 2003

💥💥🤯💥💥
Gotta nuke something

poverty goat posted:

Hey guys my knuckles are already cracked and bleeding from all the extra hand washing. Anyone got a hot tip for this??

Don't wash your hands so much.

You should wash them often, but you're going overboard if you take it far enough that your skin bleeds.

ClamdestineBoyster
Aug 15, 2015
Probation
Can't post for 10 years!

mycomancy posted:

What the gently caress is this nonsense?

The loving reality of the situation. Got a problem with that? :toughguy:

shovelbum
Oct 21, 2010

Fun Shoe

Bloody Hedgehog posted:

Don't wash your hands so much.

You should wash them often, but you're going overboard if you take it far enough that your skin bleeds.

seeing a lot of white ppl with bleeding hands and black ppl who look like theyre wearing grey gloves lol

poverty goat
Feb 15, 2004



Bloody Hedgehog posted:

Don't wash your hands so much.

You should wash them often, but you're going overboard if you take it far enough that your skin bleeds.

I have to wash them more often than most at work on a normal day because I handle food, but now I'm washing them more outside of work and sanitizing constantly if I have to go out, which doesn't help. It's inescapable.

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Lugnut Seatcushion
May 4, 2013
Lipstick Apathy

ClamdestineBoyster posted:

The loving reality of the situation. Got a problem with that? :toughguy:

Where are you getting 6 billion people dead? It's alarmist and irresponsible to say that poo poo.

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