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skipdogg posted:Not sure how it'll affect their stock to be honest. We're at the end of the model years, and it's not uncommon for plants to shut down around this time each year for a product change or update. If F makes it back down to 2, I'll think about picking some up.
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Mar 18, 2020 22:40
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Sold my Wynn puts this morning. I was getting antsy since it had grown so much it accounted for more than half my portfolio. Feels weird having single position gains bigger than a years salary, but it's hard to complain about. At least until tax season next year. Got some april SPY calls and some ZM calls expiring Friday to gamble with over tomorrow's open. Probably going to bail on my DIS puts in a week or two, which would secure most of my remaining funds. Feels a lot harder to have confidence in new positions now that they're so much more expensive to buy into.
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Mar 18, 2020 22:44
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leper khan posted:Sold my Wynn puts this morning. I was getting antsy since it had grown so much it accounted for more than half my portfolio. Feels weird having single position gains bigger than a years salary, but it's hard to complain about. At least until tax season next year. This is just good money management. Plus, I believe China will soon lift restrictions for mainlanders and Macao which would basically preserve WYNN, LVS, and MGM stock prices.
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Mar 18, 2020 22:53
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leper khan posted:portfolio. Feels weird having single position gains bigger than a years salary, but it's hard to complain about. At least until tax season next year. Don't you have to pay quarterly taxes if you are suddenly bringing in a lot more than last year? Or is that still way under that in gains?
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Mar 18, 2020 23:00
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pixaal posted:Don't you have to pay quarterly taxes if you are suddenly bringing in a lot more than last year? Or is that still way under that in gains? BlackMK4 fucked around with this message at 00:08 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 23:21
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pixaal posted:Don't you have to pay quarterly taxes if you are suddenly bringing in a lot more than last year? Or is that still way under that in gains? I haven't yet talked to a tax professional, but I added that to my list about two weeks ago. My girlfriend has CPA's in her family I'm planning on getting a referral from. But, yes; probably. I'm pretty sure this bumped me by at least one tax bracket.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:22
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doingitwrong posted:How do I go long on copper? quote:One of Keevil and Schmidt's studies from 2015 did the math: The cost of treating an HAI ranges from $28,400 to $33,800 per patient. Installing copper on 10 percent of surfaces cost $52,000 and prevented 14 infections over the course of the 338-day study. If you take the lower end of the HAI treatment cost ($28,400), then those 14 prevented infections saved a total of $397,600, or $1,176 a day. LOL it's because that $28k to $33k is paid for by the patient or their insurer, while that $52k is paid for by the hospital. Try billing an insurance company for "didn't get the patient infected", see how that goes.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:24
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BlackMK4 posted:Wat? That is for self employed people No, he’s right. IIRC if you end up owing taxes in 2018, say, you need to send in quarterly payments if you expect it to happen again in 2019. Think, like, if you have a normal job but also hold something that throws off a lot of dividends or interest income every quarter. Basically they really don’t like it if you have to owe the IRS money two years in a row.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:26
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Yeah I have to do quarterly payments because ~4 years ago I owed the IRS too much and now they make me
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Mar 18, 2020 23:26
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I assume the thesis is that if we have buying into the close, we gap down at the open and the opposite if we have selling into the close. It's hard to tell with the earlier days in the graph, but it wasn't true on 2/27, 2/28, 3/2. Since the volatility has started, a down day has been followed by an up day except for 3/6 and 3/12. So I'd argue the predictive power is comparable, though it does require you to hold to the following day's close. I wonder how many of those up/down opens results in an opposite down/up close. My guess would be almost none. The Goldman chart is probably more appropriate for the swing trading I've been doing. 
Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 23:38 on Mar 18, 2020 |
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Mar 18, 2020 23:29
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Think I’ll probably close out my short position, or at least significantly trim it, before the weekend. Have a feeling the PDCF coming online (Friday apparently) is going to take a bit of the panic off and give the market a breather.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:36
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The obvious thing from the sawtooth graph is that the up-day recoveries are a lower magnitude than the down-day selloffs. That tells me I'm fine hanging onto my puts even through up days until that trend reverses.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:40
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Agronox posted:No, he’s right. IIRC if you end up owing taxes in 2018, say, you need to send in quarterly payments if you expect it to happen again in 2019. Think, like, if you have a normal job but also hold something that throws off a lot of dividends or interest income every quarter. TIL, it has only happened to me once. This is good to know.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:42
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I'm very new to this and have just been playing around. Is this a foolish time to be learning? I figured I learn best just by jumping in. But maybe I jumped into lava. I know everything is insane but like risk. I bought one of those core portfolios from e-trader. Im messing around on Webull as well. Should I wait this poo poo out or is it smart to be buying so low even though I'm unfamiliar? I get the concept I'm just not familiar with what I should be buying besides mutual funds. I want more risk but don't want to be stupid.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:43
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Today was a loving wild day in the stock market for casino stocks. I went all in on casino short positions yesterday afternoon across the board for small cap casinos with the intention of thinking about covering when they had dropped 50% thinking that this would be in 2-3 weeks. That instead happened at noon today for basically all of my positions, so I covered half. Then, $RRR bounced $1.50 from a low of and $2.75 and I started expanding the position again. I also reopened that short on Tesla because they're about to get shut down by the sheriff. They may run out of cash in the next two months.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:43
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Josh Lyman posted:I assume the thesis is that if we have buying into the close, we gap down at the open and the opposite if we have selling into the close. It's hard to tell with the earlier days in the graph, but it wasn't true on 2/27, 2/28, 3/2. I don't know how to finger it works, but it held 3/17 -> 318 too: 3:30pm -> 4:00pm 3/17: 2476.15 -> 2528.47, 4:00pm 3/17 - > 10:00am 3/18: 2528.47 -> 2422.28 There's an adage about "Don't trade what you think, trade what you see." I can play a few percent of my cash on this if 3/18 -> 3/19 continues the trend.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:47
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Lote posted:Today was a loving wild day in the stock market for casino stocks. I went all in on casino short positions yesterday afternoon across the board for small cap casinos with the intention of thinking about covering when they had dropped 50% thinking that this would be in 2-3 weeks. That instead happened at noon today for basically all of my positions, so I covered half. Then, $RRR bounced $1.50 from a low of and $2.75 and I started expanding the position again. I also reopened that short on Tesla because they're about to get shut down by the sheriff. They may run out of cash in the next two months. Nice av.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:54
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I don't know how to finger it works, but it held 3/17 -> 318 too: 3:30pm -> 4:00pm 3/17: 2476.15 -> 2528.47, 4:00pm 3/17 - > 10:00am 3/18: 2528.47 -> 2422.28 Of course, then you have exogenous events like the ECB just announced 750 Euro stimulus about 20 min ago which caused futures to gain 2.5%, though we're off those highs.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:08
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Normally when fun things like that are discovered the jig is up immediately. Of course I am saying this holding calls.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:11
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How do I approximate how much premium will be left at certain points in time ahead of maturity? For example if I’m looking at SBUX and think there’s 25% downside, how much will a Jan 21 expiry be worth if it hits it in June?
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Mar 19, 2020 00:11
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Lote posted:thinking that this would be in 2-3 weeks. That instead happened at noon today for basically all of my positions, so I covered half. This has been happening for the whole month basically which is why I been just rerolling puts nonstop.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:12
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fougera posted:How do I approximate how much premium will be left at certain points in time ahead of maturity? For example if I’m looking at SBUX and think there’s 25% downside, how much will a Jan 21 expiry be worth if it hits it in June? https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/
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Mar 19, 2020 00:12
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after hours poppin a bit due to this https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1240412058136588288
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Mar 19, 2020 00:13
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Hmmm. That might screw with my puts a little bit, but I do have SPY 234 for Friday and 239 for 3/27. Might be a good opportunity to get rid of those tomorrow.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:33
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Hmmm. That might screw with my puts a little bit, but I do have SPY 234 for Friday and 239 for 3/27. Might be a good opportunity to get rid of those tomorrow. Are you expecting Trump to follow? That's Europe and SPY is US only isn't it?
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Mar 19, 2020 00:37
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A “US stock” just means that their headquarters is in the US. And sometimes not even that. It’s not like Ford doesn’t sell cars in the UK or Germans don’t buy iphones.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:44
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I don't expect Trump to do anything remotely that useful, but rising tide and boats and all that thanks to how globalized finance has become. I think that we're going to see some upwards momentum tomorrow and that will likely add to it. I picked up the calls pretty much at the bottom today so it wouldn't take much to turn a small profit on them. I plan on moving the 3/20 call tomorrow and probably holding the 3/27 to see if we get a pump on Friday.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:46
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Grabbed a bunch of Boeing at $98. Announce 👏 the 👏 bailout 👏 you 👏 orange 👏 gently caress! e: VV That's why it's called gambling baby! They can close the casinos, but we'll still get our fix somehow. Wifi Toilet fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 00:49
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Wifi Toilet posted:Grabbed a bunch of Boeing at $98. Remember uh, what happened to GM shareholders in 2008? That may be the Boeing bailout. Do we think it just gets a loan?
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Mar 19, 2020 00:55
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So as someone who is just getting to know about options trading (I haven't done it), who's usually holding the other side of the bet in all of these puts and calls? Who is ultimately losing money when someone makes 2x his yearly salary on a casino stock put?
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Mar 19, 2020 01:39
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Freezer posted:So as someone who is just getting to know about options trading (I haven't done it), who's usually holding the other side of the bet in all of these puts and calls? Who is ultimately losing money when someone makes 2x his yearly salary on a casino stock put? The person who "wrote" the option contract. They got a premium for that. Too bad about their 100 shares but they took the risk and the premium. Don't feel bad for them.
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Mar 19, 2020 01:41
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Normally market makers are providing liquidity in the options market. And they're not really losing money, they're always hedged
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Mar 19, 2020 01:44
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Sepist posted:Normally market makers are providing liquidity in the options market. And they're not really losing money, they're always hedged Okay, but someone else clearly must be losing money then.
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Mar 19, 2020 01:47
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Freezer posted:Okay, but someone else clearly must be losing money then. Usually the guy buying the option lol
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Mar 19, 2020 01:50
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This is purely anecdotal but some info about my situation in SF, if anyone is interested as it may pertain to timelines for investment ideas. SF is essentially shut down until April 7th as per the shelter in place order. I've been thinking it's going to be longer than this since before it was announced, and today our hotel officially shut down with the CEO telling us that the plan is to reopen on April 30th, a full 3 weeks past the order. This makes sense, stretching it out to 6 weeks which would seem to be much more effective. I think SF is going to eventually announce this extension, as I think the US will inevitably extend that initial 15 day measure as well. We're a hotel, so ramp up time etc is in order, but we also have a rooftop bar that is one of the prime nightclubs in the city and up until recently was being kept open because we were still at max quotas i.e. 100 people at a time. Im not kidding, we were open Monday night until 11pm and the shutdown was scheduled for 1201a. You'd think they would want to get this thing open as fast as humanly possible because we absolutely print money, so I think they might know a little more about an extension of the SIP than we do. This is only our company so far, but I'd have to imagine that the SIP extensions are almost assuredly going forward, and we're continuing the incrementalism so as not to stoke all out fear.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:05
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Lote posted:In times of stability it makes a bunch of money I mean, I get why people do it in general. I don't get why people were talking about doing it today.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:46
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Futures are pointing at a strongly negative opening. We'll see if that lasts through the night.
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Mar 19, 2020 03:53
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Not gonna lie, kinda want to start a pool for what the bottom for SPY actually is.
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Mar 19, 2020 03:56
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java posted:Not gonna lie, kinda want to start a pool for what the bottom for SPY actually is. Our pool is how many spy puts you bought and how long you hold em for. Italy has fourth day of nearly flat new cases. If we can pull off something similar to their quarantine, might be light at the end of the tunnel. Could start easing up this hedge depending on the action tomorrow. Feels like the unemployment numbers are gonna shock the poo poo out of everyone though.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:01
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Baddog posted:Feels like the unemployment numbers are gonna shock the poo poo out of everyone though. I am a labor and employment attorney at a very large law firm. Everything I’m seeing is carnage.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:07
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