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Anyone else feel kind of weird buying puts, knowing that the economy is going to poo poo as we directly benefit from it? Like, in The Big Short, Ben Rickertt said "just don't loving dance." And I agree. I just watched the movie again, and it just kind of hit me. During trading hours I'm desperately wanting the indexes to go down. I directly benefit from that. I get caught up in it, probably like a lot of you. And I can rationalize that by saying, if it's not me, it'd be someone else, and by thinking that "well the stock is already going down, and the economy is going down the tube, might as well benefit a little from it." I think that's a rationalization, but that doesn't mean it's not true. Might as well make some money as a small tiny fish in the stock market, instead of it just being the huge whales gobbling up all the profits. Unfortunately I'm not making the kind of money that's gonna be life changing, but gains are gains. I don't know why I posted this. Just needed to get that off my chest.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:08
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Baddog posted:Feels like the unemployment numbers are gonna shock the poo poo out of everyone though. A whole industry has basically vanished over night in a lot of places.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:11
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Yeah, I feel you. I have conflicting feelings too, especially with my 6 figure retirement account 100% in the S&P 500 bleeding heavily. It might not be 6 figgy much longer. This poo poo is entertaining as hell though.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:13
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Bored As gently caress posted:I don't know why I posted this. Just needed to get that off my chest. I actually dig exactly what you are getting at and suspect a lot of others feel the same way. I killed it this week gambling, like way more than I ever have in my life, but at the same time the retirement portfolio was down about 7-10% depending on what second you looked at it. Weird feeling.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:20
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Bored As gently caress posted:Anyone else feel kind of weird buying puts, knowing that the economy is going to poo poo as we directly benefit from it? I hear you. Been trying to figure out why I didnt get shorter than I did, earlier than I did, when I was already up to my eyeballs in risk mitigation for work. Think it was because none of us really want everything to go to poo poo, and placing absurdly sized bets that it will seems defeatist. Betting against us all.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:21
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skipdogg posted:Yeah, I feel you. I have conflicting feelings too, especially with my 6 figure retirement account 100% in the S&P 500 bleeding heavily. It might not be 6 figgy much longer. I feel fortunate because my dad's retirement was all in loving S&P ETFs with a little in targeted retirement, and I freaked when I saw that and moved everything to the targeted and he is down like 4%. This was in like Jan. I can see some people being absolutely hosed if they don't know their investments. I imagine if you are like 20 - 30 from retirement, dips like this would be welcome.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:25
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Baddog posted:Think it was because none of us really want everything to go to poo poo, and placing absurdly sized bets that it will seems defeatist. Betting against us all. My second biggest gambling win was taking a super long out bet that the senile old man from a reality TV show would actually become the most powerful person on Earth. I figured gently caress, if I lose that bet, horrible thing didn't happen. If horrible thing happens, at least I'm getting a nice vacation out of this. Think of it as hedging against the timeline doing the dumbest thing possible.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:26
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Omerta posted:I am a labor and employment attorney at a very large law firm. Everything I’m seeing is carnage. Is there an official release of the unemployment figures due soon?
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Mar 19, 2020 04:31
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Bored As gently caress posted:Anyone else feel kind of weird buying puts, knowing that the economy is going to poo poo as we directly benefit from it? There is literally nothing positive out of a massive disease caused recession. At least you can make money off counterparties weighting puts.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:45
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gay picnic defence posted:Is there an official release of the unemployment figures due soon? I totally forgot about that when I bought my SPY puts at today's close. Looks like I'm gonna have to try to exit quickly after 9:30am to minimize my loss.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:48
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gay picnic defence posted:Is there an official release of the unemployment figures due soon? 8:30 AM ET is the initial weekly unemployment claims, I think this is the week ended March 14th IIRC. Beaten, but I'll add that the consensus is for 218K new claims (vs. 211K new claims the week before).
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Mar 19, 2020 04:50
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Josh Lyman posted:Nonfarm payrolls come out the first Friday of every month. We get jobless claims tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am, but that's for last week so even if it's bad, it won't be THAT bad. Apr 3 has the potential to be a blood-bath. If we manage to trace back up to 245 - 255 by then, I'll probably open up a small put position either 4/1 or 4/2 on SPY for later that month.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:54
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Josh Lyman posted:Nonfarm payrolls come out the first Friday of every month. We get jobless claims tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am, but that's for last week so even if it's bad, it won't be THAT bad. Futures are blood red my dude. I don't think jobless claims are going to send us higher tomorrow morning.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:55
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Freezer posted:So as someone who is just getting to know about options trading (I haven't done it), who's usually holding the other side of the bet in all of these puts and calls? Who is ultimately losing money when someone makes 2x his yearly salary on a casino stock put? As others have said, usually market makers. But individual investors can write puts and calls for low volumes. Several years ago I was experimenting with options because I wanted to learn. I wrote puts one time because I wanted to buy a particular stock (MSFT) at a discount. I believe it was 10 puts (1000 shares). Anyway the stock price dipped and I was assigned. I got the stock for the price I wanted as well as the premium. I’ve also written a small number of covered calls in the same time period. The first time was all profit because the stock price didn’t rise high enough. The second time the stock did climb and my shares were assigned but I wanted to keep it so I ended up repurchasing it at the higher price. After taking premiums into consideration I basically broke even. I haven’t really messed with options since my experiment.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:12
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tumblr hype man posted:8:30 AM ET is the initial weekly unemployment claims, I think this is the week ended March 14th IIRC. We used to bet on this when I worked in mortgage banking. I'll take 225K because they do in fact control the BLS (especially until checks are in the mail)
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Mar 19, 2020 05:35
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Josh Lyman posted:Nonfarm payrolls come out the first Friday of every month. We get jobless claims tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am, but that's for last week so even if it's bad, it won't be THAT bad. Cheers, I might hold on to my bear funds until the 3rd in that case. Hopefully I can flip them and pick up a few bargains. Spewing I didn’t break my term deposit earlier, I’d love to have a bit more free cash to play with.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:36
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Has anyone else heard the rumor that risk parity is going to blow up and take Citadel, Bridgewater, and Millennium with it? People are saying that AQR and 2 Sigma are in the same boat and will probably go down too. I’ve had a couple of FW: FW: FW: type emails about it. It’s always something like “my buddy who has a friend at GS says...” I can see what they’re saying and why it’s believable but I guess that’s what makes it so easy to spread.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:36
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We are flirting with limit down again on the futures.
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Mar 19, 2020 06:00
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I'm starting to think my 180 SPY bottom guess might be optimistic.
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Mar 19, 2020 06:06
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I will pistol whip the next motherfucker to say stock buybacks. Buy PUT spreads and sell call spreads to finance them I'm very concerned why this is hard.
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Mar 19, 2020 06:07
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gay picnic defence posted:Is there an official release of the unemployment figures due soon? People have already responded with the relevant info, but I’ll add a little flavor to what’s keeping me up at night. Lit and Real Estate are working around the clock responding to/writing breach notices. T-minus 3-4 weeks before a giant explosion of litigation about impossibility of performance and force majeur applicability. Probably around the same time we get a few notable bankruptcies. In L&E land, there are some really ominous signs. California issued an executive order suspending the WARN Act, which deals with notice and other obligations when laying off people or shutting down a facility. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.17.20-EO-motor.pdf. I expect other states with more stringent laws to follow. I haven’t seen anything to address workers who can’t work remotely, and what happens with furloughed workers is still in the TBD column. Prevailing attitude seems to be let the government figure it out and we’ll RIF as needed. Unions are issuing lots of RFIs regarding covid protections and grieving about similar issues (see what happened with Ford). There are also just a lot of anecdotal, case-specific things that lead me to believe numbers are going to be ugly—the way people describe what’s going on, etc. Just IMO, but I think there will be another significant drop from the first round of viscerally awful numbers. It will be too much for many to stomach, even though we know it’s all coming.
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Mar 19, 2020 06:41
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Currently holding WFC 5/15 $27.50p, EEM 6/19 $23.27p, MAR 4/17 $55p, various puts on DIS and Z. Debating RACE 5/15 $100p. Only things I'm holding that make me nervous are whims I picked up 3/23 calls on SPY $250 to sell on a green close I'm guessing happens on Friday, and 3/23 $234 puts to sell Monday. I'll consider them nice surprises of they hit. Thoughts, or anything obvious I should be looking at? Premiums are getting insane, but I can't think about buying shares when we're hitting circuit breakers in both directions multiple times per week.
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Mar 19, 2020 07:08
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I just now realized - I held leap puts on Z for 2 years but they're gone now because of course they are. Always own some .05-.07 delta puts. Always. Edit: it's kinda a trip when the options don't keep up with the chart and Z and MAR don't even exist.
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Mar 19, 2020 07:39
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holding 3/23 over the weekend is pretty ballsy :V
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Mar 19, 2020 07:39
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FAN OF NICKELBACK posted:I picked up 3/23 calls on SPY $250 to sell on a green close I'm guessing happens on Friday indeed, balls of steel
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Mar 19, 2020 07:41
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All my puts are for 4/17 and I'm still nervous about holding onto them.
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Mar 19, 2020 08:22
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Bored As gently caress posted:Anyone else feel kind of weird buying puts, knowing that the economy is going to poo poo as we directly benefit from it? As for rooting for number to go down, it's a matter if adjusting attitude/position as to be more properly surprised that number went down. Omerta posted:In L&E land, there are some really ominous signs. California issued an executive order suspending the WARN Act, which deals with notice and other obligations when laying off people or shutting down a facility. https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.17.20-EO-motor.pdf. I expect other states with more stringent laws to follow.
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Mar 19, 2020 08:27
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Why the gently caress did I pick up SPY calls yesterday when I knew today the jobs information was coming out I am going to get loving wrecked
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Mar 19, 2020 08:32
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I think that's just the Asian markets catching up, euro futures were up with the announcement of the European spending plans, and China have just said they have no domestic cases today. Am happy with my 4/17 calls for now, just means I'm not offloading stuff daily
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Mar 19, 2020 08:37
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pram posted:holding 3/23 over the weekend is pretty ballsy :V It's a splurge on a lotto ticket using the house's money. I have a feeling it'll at least break even, but sometimes I have dumb feelings. For example, I also have a few 4/7 SPY $366c because it dawned on me while I was drunk that the lot of them cost as much as a Wal-Mart sheet cake and that's it, that was the entire line of reasoning. Going to laugh if those pay out. I dunno, overall, I'm just not seeing best-case-scenario-style pandemic mitigation occurring in government. Disney can't open their gates or show games on ESPN, hotels and casinos are hosed, Six Flags is as toast as the service and entertainment industries . . . oil is just the cherry on top of a financial disaster sundae . . . all of that likely true for a minimum of 3 months imo. I only see a bumpy economic ride down until at least summer.
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Mar 19, 2020 08:38
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Josh Lyman posted:Nonfarm payrolls come out the first Friday of every month. We get jobless claims tomorrow (Thursday) at 8:30am, but that's for last week so even if it's bad, it won't be THAT bad. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 08:48 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 08:46
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Omerta posted:People have already responded with the relevant info, but I’ll add a little flavor to what’s keeping me up at night. Thanks for the background. Here in Australia it's a little hard to get a gauge of what's actually happening on the ground in the US so it's good to get this sort of info. I think the likelihood is that this will be as bad if not worse than the GFC so I'm expecting around a 50% decline from peak to trough. I'll probably look to offload these bear funds when it gets to 45% down to be on the safe side (if there is a safe side to leveraged bear ETFs lol) but I'll keep an eye on the news and make the call accordingly. If it gets to 50% down before the payroll numbers are released I might hang onto them a for a bit longer to cash in on traders collectively making GBS threads their pants once they are released.
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Mar 19, 2020 08:52
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FAN OF NICKELBACK posted:It's a splurge on a lotto ticket using the house's money. I have a feeling it'll at least break even, but sometimes I have dumb feelings. theta decay is a huge factor in short duration options like that. not that im saying the crash is stopping any time soon, but the wild drilling and pumps wont last forever. in that case, where everything is just moving kinda sideways, your money is disappearing honestly id sell the put tomorrow looking at the current situation edit: or rather, today lol
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Mar 19, 2020 09:07
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buying some EAT in premarket
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Mar 19, 2020 12:11
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I can see SHOP profiting off everyone trying to get some distance from each other in the long term
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Mar 19, 2020 12:17
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 https://brrr.money/ also, if we assume that more than half the options on the S&P are put options, how does this affect Friday's open? https://www.wsj.com/articles/harrie...e_copyURL_share
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Mar 19, 2020 12:52
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LorneReams posted:I feel fortunate because my dad's retirement was all in loving S&P ETFs with a little in targeted retirement, and I freaked when I saw that and moved everything to the targeted and he is down like 4%. This was in like Jan. I can see some people being absolutely hosed if they don't know their investments. Oh, you mean like how I put all my non-emergency savings in the Vanguard S&P fund right before the crash?  Don’t time the market, because you can’t time the market.
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Mar 19, 2020 13:03
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https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/1240615475819708417?s=20 don't worry we'll send you the feet of Ozymandias in 50 years
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Mar 19, 2020 13:26
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1st_Panzer_Div. posted:We used to bet on this when I worked in mortgage banking. 281K claims
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Mar 19, 2020 13:32
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not great, not terrible
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Mar 19, 2020 13:34
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