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Leperflesh posted:e. Oh and I should add: your move from holding individual bonds, to holding a bond fund, was absolutely not an exchange of equivalent assets. When you buy individual bonds, you're locking in a yield that you can count on if you hold to maturity, with the only real risk being the risk of default from the issuer - similar to buying a CD, but with no FDIC insurance and a higher likelihood of default. But a bond fund is exposure to a market, and the risks include all the normal market risks; volatility being the most important. Of course you did become more diversified in your bond holdings, but I hope you fully understood that you were doing something significant there, not just buying diversification for free with no drawbacks.  Does that mean I should move away from VTBLX? Though, if it acts as the market does, then it wouldn't be an issue until I'm closer to retirement.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:20
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Pollyanna posted:Same. I assume that if something does change, Vanguard will just transfer the value to the new symbols automatically. Don't you worry, the S&P500 (or whatever) will get rebalanced and your ETF that represents it will rebalance accordingly
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Mar 18, 2020 23:26
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Leperflesh posted:e. Oh and I should add: your move from holding individual bonds, to holding a bond fund, was absolutely not an exchange of equivalent assets. When you buy individual bonds, you're locking in a yield that you can count on if you hold to maturity, with the only real risk being the risk of default from the issuer - similar to buying a CD, but with no FDIC insurance and a higher likelihood of default. But a bond fund is exposure to a market, and the risks include all the normal market risks; volatility being the most important. Of course you did become more diversified in your bond holdings, but I hope you fully understood that you were doing something significant there, not just buying diversification for free with no drawbacks. I think this is also part of the issue with these ETFs and mutual funds which track bond indexes. During normal times most of the underlying assets stay put. However when everyone panics sells all at once, you have a pile of assets with unknown values being sold when there aren't a lot of willing buyers.
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Mar 18, 2020 23:43
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bird with big dick posted:How many rounds of 223 currently equals one roll of toilet paper? Do you think this ratio will change in the short term as TP is being consumed in much greater quantities than ammunition? The answer is 1. You just need 1 round.
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Mar 19, 2020 01:22
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So what bond funds do people like. I was thinking just throwing my hands up and buying all the bonds (BNDW) but would welcome advice or options here.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:20
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Pollyanna posted:I want it to work, it’d be nice to find a way to get money fast and easy. But in all my investigation, I have found nothing. PM me
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Mar 19, 2020 02:34
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zaurg posted:PM me Shut the gently caress up and get back to your thread.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:47
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Motronic posted:Shut the gently caress up and This
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Mar 19, 2020 02:51
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Good point.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:54
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I’ve never read the z thread, assuming you all are reading it for me?
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Mar 19, 2020 03:12
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doingitwrong posted:So what bond funds do people like. I was thinking just throwing my hands up and buying all the bonds (BNDW) but would welcome advice or options here.
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Mar 19, 2020 03:21
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thinking of cutting my retirement contributions by $50/biweekly and spending the money on the beer and weed i apparently need while processing everything
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Mar 19, 2020 03:21
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zaurg posted:PM me lol
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Mar 19, 2020 03:37
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pig slut lisa posted:thinking of cutting my retirement contributions by $50/biweekly and spending the money on the beer and weed i apparently need while processing everything GWL I’m drinking single malt and just dropped $50 on a new vape battery
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Mar 19, 2020 03:37
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pig slut lisa posted:thinking of cutting my retirement contributions by $50/biweekly and spending the money on the beer and weed i apparently need while processing everything Yeah but aren’t we supposed to be excited about getting our money in now while the price is cheap(er)? I’m putting extra in.
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Mar 19, 2020 03:44
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Astro7x posted:Say you're 30 years old. Plan to retire at 60. Over the years you've put money into your ROTH when you can. You have $100,000 in it by Feb 29th and follow this guys advice to GTFO Anyone else figure out the percent difference between these two scenarios? I don't think astro7x saw my question 
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Mar 19, 2020 03:57
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Does extending the payment to July 14 also extend when you have to file, or is that still the same?
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Mar 19, 2020 04:04
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Baddog posted:Anyone else figure out the percent difference between these two scenarios? I don't think astro7x saw my question
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Mar 19, 2020 04:17
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:You were serious? It’s 100/76.5 = 1.307 Whats the percentage difference in $$ after 30 years of compounding interest?
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Mar 19, 2020 04:24
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30.7 percent. Both people in this scenario have “today” the same accounts, with the same return. One starts with a balance of 100, the other with 76.5 The (rate)^30 factor is the same in the numerator and denominator so they cancel out.
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Mar 19, 2020 04:27
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Baddog posted:Anyone else figure out the percent difference between these two scenarios? I don't think astro7x saw my question
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Mar 19, 2020 04:36
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Pardot posted:Does extending the payment to July 14 also extend when you have to file, or is that still the same? Still have to file on time, either an extension or a return. You also need to owe less than a million. 
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Mar 19, 2020 04:37
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:30.7 percent. Thanks man. 30% more in retirement is significant to me. People argue vehemently in this thread over which fund is better based on fractions of a percent in management fees. Hoodwinker posted:You didn't answer mine either, bud. Why do you need to time the market in order to succeed? I think you'll be ok following your plan. I managed to bounce back really well from 2001 and 2008. But why stand around and take a 30%+ kick in the dick when all the epidemiologists were lining up to say this was a big loving deal? Don't take investing advice that was distilled down in order to keep your average person from psychologically loving themselves on every business cycle, and turn it into a religion that calls for you to ignore whats going on in the world.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:16
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Don’t take investing advice from someone on the internet that doesn’t back up their statements with expert opinion.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:37
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WithoutTheFezOn posted:30.7 percent. I thought the initial question posited that both accounts would continue to receive equal annual contributions of new money in addition to the growth of the starting money, which would reduce the ultimate percent difference significantly. There's probably a more elegant equation to describe this but I can brute force it with an Excel sheet tomorrow.
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Mar 19, 2020 05:46
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Help, I need to talk to my sponsor. I'm currently in 25% bond ETF, 75% equity. That actually hit the 30% bonds threshold at which point I dutifully rebalanced like a good trooper. However everything is super on sale and I want to suddenly have second thoughts about my 25/75 allocation. It sure sounds to me like I should in fact have a 100% equity allocation right now! My confirmation bias is nodding super vigorously at quote:don't turn it into a religion that calls for you to ignore whats going on in the world Talk me off the ledge? Or maybe say that this is a once in a lifetime buying opportunity and I should slowly move my bonds into equities over the next weeks/months.
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Mar 19, 2020 06:17
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My gambling sense is telling me we are in for a bigger slide still If you reallocate here and we dive off a cliff again next month while you are 100% stock are you still okay? what if you add losing your job on top? This could be the bottom or maybe you just have enough elsewhere that you can ride out unemployment, so you want to gamble, or do you want to play it safe? I do not recommend using retirement funds to gamble. (going more stock heavy is how you play the long game, but short term cashing out some bonds to live is your backup, it's your emergency I need food cash out. the bonds should hold value nicely even in these conditions)
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Mar 19, 2020 06:37
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Vehementi posted:Help, I need to talk to my sponsor. Holding at least a small amount of bonds reduces your risk significantly while not really impacting gains all that much. Holding say 13-25% bonds is what most people will recommend even if you’re still in “growth mode”. And to be blunt, right now your bonds are saving you. The reason your bond allocation is creeping up is because your stocks are making GBS threads themselves. That’s exactly what the bonds are there to do.
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Mar 19, 2020 07:56
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Paul MaudDib posted:Holding at least a small amount of bonds reduces your risk significantly while not really impacting gains all that much quote:And to be blunt, right now your bonds are saving you. The reason your bond allocation is creeping up is because your stocks are making GBS threads themselves. That’s exactly what the bonds are there to do. No of course, I get that. But now that a massive fall Happened I basically have a pile of cash I could invest while everything is On Sale. If it was literally cash (like I got a windfall) it would be difficult to just buy a shitload of bonds right now (which is the equivalent of not selling my bonds)... Timing the market terms Capitalized for effect
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Mar 19, 2020 08:12
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Maybe stocks are on sale and we’ve reached the bottom. Maybe more slide is coming. Maybe the US is beginning a lost decade. There are many directions the future could go from here. Mathematically, the best results come from disciplined investing (don’t time the market). If you’ve learned from this that your risk appetite is higher than you realized, then maybe rebalance towards higher equity exposure. Recognize that we’ve just ended the longest bull run in history and that the S&P 500 just outperformed in an incredibly surprising way. Even with the crash so far, prices are on the high side historically so your expected returns going forward would be below historical averages in stocks.
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Mar 19, 2020 09:03
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I strongly recommend that if 75/25 is the asset allocation you decided that you were comfortable with, you shouldn't change it based on a sudden shift in market conditions. Changing it due to change in career, change in life path, approaching retirement age, etc., all of these are totally reasonable, but I would not recommend letting the market determine your risk tolerance on either side.
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Mar 19, 2020 10:04
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I rebalanced on Friday, turned off my auto rebalancing, and changed my future contributions to 100% stock. If it keeps eating poo poo then my contribution weighting will keep pushing it (ever so slightly) towards 85/15. Even with all of this, allocation only fell to 82/18 or so. Of course going from 18% bonds to 15% bonds means I sold off about 20% of my bond holdings so I guess that is kind of dramatic.
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Mar 19, 2020 12:38
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Baddog posted:Thanks man. 30% more in retirement is significant to me. you have yet to answer the question of "when do you buy back in?" You will never, ever, EVER, gain 30% if you don't buy back in at the precise right moment. Yes, we all saw a big crash coming. But not a single soul could have predicted the magnitude accurately, and frankly we don't even know if we're out of it yet. Without knowing when to buy back in, market timing doesn't work. Sure hindsight is 20/20, but going in to the crash you do NOT know how bad it'll be. That's the part you seem to be missing here. edit: let's not forget that this 30% is based on the "timed" contributions. This will be dwarfed by 30 years of "un-timed" contributions. You're not magically increasing your nestegg by 30% just because you timed the market right once. DaveSauce fucked around with this message at 13:40 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 13:08
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doingitwrong posted:If you’ve learned from this that your risk appetite is higher than you realized, then maybe rebalance towards higher equity exposure. Turns out I'm a soulless robot, who knew
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Mar 19, 2020 13:18
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Just amended my future contributions from mid-April onwards to 90 stocks 10 bonds from 70/30; this is the downturn I've been waiting on since we hit 10 years of bull market so time to mop up. Haven't touched my invested numbers which are currently sitting at 66 stocks / 34 bonds, that'll rebalance naturally with future contribs
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Mar 19, 2020 13:32
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Has anybody felt secure enough at work and with their emergency fund to up their savings rate lately? I'm up to like 35% now. I've been wanting to get to 40% and hold it there for a year or two, but hadn't really gotten there. The crash lit a fire under my rear end though. Shares are cheaper now than they have been at any point since I started investing. So long as the paychecks keep coming and the 'rona doesn't take me out, I'm gonna come out of this mess in really good shape.
acidx fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 14:01
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Doccykins posted:this is the downturn I've been waiting on since we hit 10 years of bull market so time to mop up. It's only gone down to levels from three years ago though?
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Mar 19, 2020 14:06
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moana posted:Yeah, this is my feeling right now, after the past couple weeks I realize I don't care about volatility or losing money nearly as much as I thought I would. I'm selling off my bonds in chunks as we go, hopefully able to buy all the way to the bottom. I guess I should have been at a more aggressive allocation all along but my first crash was 2008 when I had all of maybe 10k invested so I wasn't sure how I would react to something like this. If this lasts another year, do you expect to have a job this entire time? Seriously put thought into if your company goes bust in 3-4 months because people have been stuck at home and unemployed and we are having trouble starting things back up. I'm not saying it's going to or likely to happen, but zero people are immune to that right now. Just about anything could go bust I'd be really shocked if Amazon or Google did, but I'm having trouble thinking of anything else. You are currently seated at either the bottom of a dip, or just the start of something big the entire point of this investment strategy is to survive the something big.
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Mar 19, 2020 14:32
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Baddog posted:Don't take investing advice that was distilled down in order to keep your average person from psychologically loving themselves on every business cycle, and turn it into a religion that calls for you to ignore whats going on in the world. You are deliberately misunderstanding the philosophy at this point. You are not smarter than the average person and you will screw yourself over sooner or later like this. You're in here asking very basic math questions about the scenario you should have already analyzed yourself before trying to make your point. You don't know what you're doing dude.
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Mar 19, 2020 14:44
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Kylaer posted:I thought the initial question posited that both accounts would continue to receive equal annual contributions of new money in addition to the growth of the starting money, which would reduce the ultimate percent difference significantly.
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Mar 19, 2020 14:51
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