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Josh Lyman posted:Gonna be an interesting day since an up/down open has corresponded with an up/down close for the last few weeks. The first time I will try to time that, it will invert and I will get hosed. So, I'm not trying to time it.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:17
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Harry Potter on Ice posted:What happens when they dont have anything to sell?
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Mar 19, 2020 15:18
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greasyhands posted:Am I missing something or is fast food selling way off completely backwards? Who isnt going to go to wendys or mcdonalds because they have to eat it in their car instead of sitting at a dirty rear end table inside? And its going to be one of the only options for a few weeks Burger King CEO did an interview with CNBC or Bloomberg (can't remember which) and right at the end admitted that drive thru sales were way down in the few days since they've closed dine-in. They're not going to the drive-thru, they're just not going. We'll see if that changes in areas where people can't get staples because of the run on grocery stores.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:18
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Lote are you still bearish on RRR in the short term? Thinking of picking up some puts. Really wish I'd picked up calls yesterday.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:26
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gently caress me, literally the only thing that's green for the day for me are my CACC and RRR puts. Everything else I'm losing money. Some of it fast. The volatility is ridiculous today.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:27
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Bored As gently caress posted:gently caress me, literally the only thing that's green for the day for me are my CACC and RRR puts. Everything else I'm losing money. Some of it fast. The volatility is ridiculous today. Didn't the trade floor close today? Bunch of people might be getting used to new work from home setups
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Mar 19, 2020 15:29
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Bored As gently caress posted:gently caress me, literally the only thing that's green for the day for me are my CACC and RRR puts. Everything else I'm losing money. Some of it fast. The volatility is ridiculous today. RRR is up 75% right now and at HOD, how do you have green puts?
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Mar 19, 2020 15:30
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Omerta posted:I am applying for margin solely to short APRN. This is ridiculous. did this get cleared in time??? gap up and crap in effect here strongly!!
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Mar 19, 2020 15:32
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Uber is up 28% today because they had an investor call before market open. They say they have billions in cash reserves to survive the plague. Traditional rideshare is down 60%-70% but food deliveries are up. I think I'm opening a put on this. Having that much cash may mean they'll stay in business but it hardly seems like cause for the stock to rocket like that.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:33
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Don't eat fast food or takeout during this thing, all the staff is inclined to keep coming to work if they are sick, coughing all over your burger. Eat a whopper, get the melty lungs. Italy had four relatively flat days, then 4.2k last night. gently caress, there went my optimistic "time to lighten up your shorts" signal.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:34
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volatility halts all over the place on stuff rocketing 50%+. PLAY up over 90%, market realizing every leisure company in existence isnt going out of business.
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 15:37 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 15:35
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Is now the time for puts? Does one hold? Does one panic?
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Mar 19, 2020 15:36
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Well, I said I was going to hold my 3/20 calls through tomorrow but I pussied out. Took some profits, dumping it into puts right now. I think tomorrow we might be up but next week will be ugly again. I'll probably grab some SPXS shares tomorrow afternoon, as well.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:37
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Dave & Busters (PLAY) up almost 100% wtf
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Mar 19, 2020 15:38
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There's no VOL on any of these casino stocks, it's impossible to get a sense of price.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:38
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Lote are you still bearish on RRR in the short term? Thinking of picking up some puts. I mean this is the dead cat bounce I was talking about. I’m gonna try to short more but I can’t via the Fidelity app. It’s become hard to borrow.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:38
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Jack Daniels posted:Dave & Busters (PLAY) up almost 100% wtf wtf indeed - are they putting the games in shipping containers and doing home visits?
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Mar 19, 2020 15:38
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:Uber is up 28% today because they had an investor call before market open. They say they have billions in cash reserves to survive the plague. Traditional rideshare is down 60%-70% but food deliveries are up. I think I'm opening a put on this. Having that much cash may mean they'll stay in business but it hardly seems like cause for the stock to rocket like that. I almost panic sold my puts on them, LYFT is also going up. There were news stories about UBER eats becoming a thing but they are offering free delivery at this point. Being exposed to 80 drive thru windows and 80 people at their home every day is probably going to make them amazing vectors to spread things since if the UBER driver can go to the drive thru the person ordering can. There was no liquidity, I really should have sold them yesterday but I thought not way is this UBER going to get a bailout, no way anyone bothers thinking of them until it's too late.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:39
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https://www.nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts i dont know that ive ever seen that many volatility halts (almost all green volatility) in the first hour of trading
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Mar 19, 2020 15:40
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This is not a credit quality issue even though a lot of companies with weak balance sheets are rated investable. Seems like a liquidity issue even with all the printing. Credit spread still widening and $DXY still going up. We need to see dollar sell off for a potential bounce.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:41
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sold out of tqqq, opening MCD puts, long tza, good point that nobody's going driving or doing jack. One guy coughs on their cash or their credit card and everyone the rest of the day gets infected. Woodchip fucked around with this message at 15:45 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 15:42
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Jack Daniels posted:did this get cleared in time??? I was able to buy one (1) option lol. Got up this morning and was frantically trying to buy more, but the spreads are ridiculous and I wasn’t able to act fast enough.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:43
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FreelanceSocialist posted:wtf indeed - are they putting the games in shipping containers and doing home visits?
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Mar 19, 2020 15:46
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greasyhands posted:RRR is up 75% right now and at HOD, how do you have green puts? Just as I said it, it went red. Christ.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:48
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Lote posted:You mean rocket to the moon! PENN up 15% haha lol wtf is going on
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Mar 19, 2020 15:53
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Added more June CZR puts, found a few that were priced relative to its current stock price.
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Mar 19, 2020 15:53
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wanted to get puts on RRR but trading halted.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:03
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Got some april CZR and Penn puts. Not terribly sure about this but I really don't see how the stocks resist the jobs numbers in the coming weeks if the casinos are still closed. Might get burned by a rally of some sort if people feel the stocks are extremely undervalued right now, which is possible.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:04
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Bank of England just cut interest rates by 15bps to 0.1% and announced £200bn of QE this side of the pond, which is about 30 cents considering the crash of value against the dollar in the last couple of days
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Mar 19, 2020 16:04
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Jack Daniels posted:Dave & Busters (PLAY) up almost 100% wtf https://www.eater.com/platform/amp/2020/3/17/21183535/trump-restaurant-industry-call-only-included-major-chains Orange bump
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Mar 19, 2020 16:05
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Got some april CZR and Penn puts. There's only been buyers all morning for the puts I have, at a couple points the bid side was tapped out, which might be causing some false impressions.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:10
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sobeody knows something before this announcement, big green candles
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Mar 19, 2020 16:14
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Unironically one of my favorite things during this period is that CNBC will show a liveshot of the White House press briefing room leading up to the daily coronavirus briefings and getting to see what the reporters do when they[re not on camera and/or preparing to go on camera. Also seeing the home offices of all the CNBC reporters as they work from home.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:14
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Woodchip posted:sobeody knows something before this announcement, big green candles
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Mar 19, 2020 16:16
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Josh Lyman posted:Just a 1% move on SPY with low volume. I wouldn't read into it. I think he's talking about CZR, specifically.
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Mar 19, 2020 16:19
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Incoming CNBC headline... "Casino stocks see large gains after announcement of free money for every taxpayer; Feds say payments can be used to 'scratch the itch'."
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Mar 19, 2020 16:21
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Ok, quick and dirty about why I think DIS has a lot lower to go. For the record, my family loves Disney. We visit the theme parks annually, I bought into their timeshare program, yada yada yada. We love the mouse. Domestic parks are closed until April 1st as of right now. They're losing out on 2 of the busiest weeks at the domestic parks, which is prime spring break season. Not the end of the world, but there is no way the parks reopen on April 1st. I'd bet against it. Optimistically I see a mid May opening, realistically I think Jun 1st at this point. We haven't hit the peak of the beer virus spreading yet. Disney sent their college program kids home already, and while they can run the parks without them, they are a decent number of staff. WDW alone has over 30,000 hotel rooms which often run at a 90% occupancy rate. Ticket revenue for the peak March to May season is really significant. Easter is the 2nd busiest time of year at WDW aside from the Christmas to NY holiday. If I'm right and they're closed until June, you're wiping out almost an entire quarter of domestic parks revenue, which is going to be like 5-6 Billion dollars. I'm not even touching on international park revenue, but DIS doesn't 100% own those properties anyway. ESPN/ABC and media is going to take a huge hit. No NBA basketball. No live sports at all. They're already having issues with people cutting the cord by the millions which hurts the number of ESPN subscribers, throw in massively reduced advertising revenue due to lack of live sports and the Media/Broadcast division is going to be hurting as well. The Movie Studios part of DIS is also getting kicked in the nuts hard. It was already a weak year of movie releases compared to previous years. Black Widow was projected to do 1B, and so was Mulan, but there wasn't going to be a Frozen 2 or Avengers movie released, so we're already looking at less than the 4.7B they did last year. Quarterly results are going to suck, and year end results won't be great either. The movie theaters are closed. On the bright side some studios are kicking around the idea of same day VOD for new movies which is an idea that I love. I much rather rent a new movie for 25 or 30 bucks and watch it at home, than visit a theater which usually costs me 70 bucks a trip with the family. I'm not a financial person, no training, take my words for what they're worth (nothing), but as a Disney fan they're going to get kicked in the nuts hard this year. I think DIS gets down to 70, possibly below by mid summer. DIS is a stock favorite though, there is a huge sentiment out there of people needing to buy now while it's so "cheap", but I don't think everything is priced in just yet. I think people think it will be bad, but don't realize just how bad it will be. This all hinges on the parks being closed past April 1st though. If they reopen, there is a strong demand for the parks right now as an escape valve. I post on Disboards as well and those folks are loving looney tunes crazy. If they reopen quickly, DIS could shoot to 110 pretty quick I think. I'm betting they don't though, and the parks don't open until mid May or early June. The May earnings report will be a blood bath if movie theaters and parks stay closed. If things stay closed until the June time frame you're talking about missing out on over 1B in studios, and 4-5B in parks revenue. If you're holding Apr DIS puts, hold them until at least Apr 1st if you can. Any change in the parks operating schedule will move the stock. It's not my money though, if you want to exit, please don't take my advice as gospel. I'm just some middle aged dipshit that takes his kids to Disney every year. skipdogg fucked around with this message at 16:25 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 16:22
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Looks like others have figured this out, but thinking about a long WW play. People are going to sit at home, eat a bunch, and then try to figure out how to get rid of this extra weight six months from now. edit: I think I'm going with a strike price of $12 for purchase. Also hoping MAR dips again so I can buy up more. The jump from 52 to 70 today was nice. java fucked around with this message at 16:26 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 16:24
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greasyhands posted:completely end the trade war with china and hand them a victory of some sort in exchange for them agreeing to buy $2trillion in 50yr bonds over 5 years or so. Stimulus in the form of cheaper prices for us consumers (still not clear that trump even understands what his tariffs are doing) and pay for a direct payment to US consumers. Use this as an opportunity to repair all of Trumps stupid poo poo and move forward Unironically I believe this will end the dumbass trade war
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Mar 19, 2020 16:25
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I have a theory that SPY will be mostly flat today and open just above 240 tomorrow. The reason for this is that huge options day tomorrow as per WSJ link earlier. There must be a massive number of SPY puts at the 240 mark to be resolved tomorrow. The people who wrote those puts need SPY to stay above 240 for just one more day or they take a bath. But, if the primary market makers hedged via shorting SPY, they need to buy SPY tomorrow anyway -- which would suggest they wouldn't mind a lower price? How does this work if there are WAY more puts than calls at the SPY 240 level to be resolved tomorrow, and puts were hedged via shorts? What pressure does it put on SPY itself throughout tomorrow?
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Mar 19, 2020 16:26
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