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Volume is surprisingly high for basically staying flat (lol remember when 2% was an "interesting" day?)
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Mar 19, 2020 18:52
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Volume is surprisingly high for basically staying flat (lol remember when 2% was an "interesting" day?) I can't wait for the new market where -50% to +100% are the new norms and they redo circuit breakers  (this would be horrifying)
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Mar 19, 2020 18:54
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I think the move is to be in cash. Not long or short, though I see potential for a massive short squeeze as pensions rebalance for end of month. The volatility this past week was particularly violent because of major hedge funds blowing up.
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Mar 19, 2020 18:54
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Lote posted:One of the perma bear technical guys I follow on twitter now is really freaking out about the price discrepancies of the leveraged ETFs. Price of the ETF not corresponding to what it’s supposed to do and their NAV UWT is very strange. The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index is up like 23% from its previous close but the 3x associated ETF is only up 19%. Maybe it's just a poo poo ETF but it's definitely noticeable.
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Mar 19, 2020 18:55
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:We'll hit bottom: after you get turned away from ER's because there's no room, and then, once you can be seen at the ER if you can present full insurance proof on admission Grim. Gave up waiting for a huge bounce, bought more puts, its gonna be a wild day tomorrow. Think people will not want to be long with a weekend of bad news coming up.
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Mar 19, 2020 18:55
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Baddog posted:Grim. Just watch out for Friday end of day rallies.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:01
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Freezer posted:Just watch out for Friday end of day rallies. I don't have anything expiring Friday and I know sooner or later we're going much lower, so I'm just gonna sit back and watch.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:03
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Opening up my options volatility screener and the result is just a looped animation of a laughing skull.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:09
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strange feelings re Daisy posted:Opening up my options volatility screener and the result is just a looped animation of a laughing skull. At least you know your broker has a sense of humor.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:10
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Seems like a lot of random poo poo is popping off their steep drops from the past two weeks. Basically everyone is asking for a bailout so people are buying on that. Which seems...not the smartest move. Literal dead cat.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:12
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SirPablo posted:Seems like a lot of random poo poo is popping off their steep drops from the past two weeks. Basically everyone is asking for a bailout so people are buying on that. Which seems...not the smartest move. Literal dead cat. My guess would be normal people with retirements that they pulled out hearing a name and hoping it's the next big thing and throwing their money at it in a panic. Trump really needs to stop name dropping, he is going to wipe out everyone's retirement accounts that don't pay attention to the market most of the time.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:15
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I haven't seen much official reporting but it looks like San Francisco is going into a 3-week 24 hour lockdown. That said, a stock 101 question - Why would anyone buy puts to expire sooner than later, you'd think an expiration a lot later out would give you more insurance.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:17
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DevCore posted:I haven't seen much official reporting but it looks like San Francisco is going into a 3-week 24 hour lockdown. sources? We're already in shelter in place for 3 weeks - I don't think theres any discussion of an escalation of the current policy.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:18
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Wow. Down 3k today. Wonderful.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:20
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DevCore posted:I haven't seen much official reporting but it looks like San Francisco is going into a 3-week 24 hour lockdown. theyre cheap. otm weeklies are lottery tickets
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Mar 19, 2020 19:20
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When does Deutsche have to admit they're turbofucked?
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Mar 19, 2020 19:24
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Doccykins posted:When does Deutsche have to admit they're turbofucked? Not until Trump leaves office, remember Deutsche Bank has done a lot of shady poo poo for Trump over the past two decades or so.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:26
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DevCore posted:I haven't seen much official reporting but it looks like San Francisco is going into a 3-week 24 hour lockdown. They're super cheap. I paid 54 dollars a contract for SPY calls at 260 that expire tomorrow. The same contracts for 3/27 would cost me 452 in premium, and the Apr 17 2020 calls would be 962 in premium. I'm just trying to time the bounce and make a few bucks. pram posted:theyre cheap. otm weeklies are lottery tickets Yeah. This.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:27
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Why the hell is go pro up almost 30%? I feel there is no way this last though everything.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:34
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sterster posted:Why the hell is go pro up almost 30%? I feel there is no way this last though everything. People strapping it to quad copters? I guess they are hobby drones now but same difference.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:36
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uso halted?
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Mar 19, 2020 19:44
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nice little melt up to get the 240/245 puts OTM before tomorrow Big red day after those options expire?
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Mar 19, 2020 19:50
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I'm short CZR and ULTA. I like how the SPY options dont have the insane bid/offer gaps of other stocks, but it moves too quickly and I still have to work my real job.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:57
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Should have dumped when I was slightly green today. Why fight the Trump Pump? Welp. Here's to not pooping myself over the weekend.
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Mar 19, 2020 19:57
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I have added a massive short position on volatility for next year jan21, which I accumulated this whole week on every sell off. VXX double decay + tvix openfeedback loop. Even if I lose I think the argument is very sound, + vix near the peak of the 08's crisis. Could be wrong so I also bought some otm IWM puts to hedge 25% of that trade, so basically a spread. This doesn't mean I think Coronavirus will just disappear but I feel the market will start discounting the economic impact and volatility will "stabilize" at a lower level. Still think this rally means nothing unless we hold this level Friday's close.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:00
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Moonshine Rhyme posted:I'm short CZR and ULTA. I like how the SPY options dont have the insane bid/offer gaps of other stocks, but it moves too quickly and I still have to work my real job. So, $CZR may have incredible upside / downside moves tomorrow. A TON of people wrote puts for $CZR in anticipation of there being a merger arb, but that deal looks like it's going to follow through. The stock has like a short interest of 70% and is now hard to borrow. This may force people to buy shares on the open market. which would result in an epic move to the upside. I have covered the large majority of my short position and reduced exposure. Proceed at your own risk. I also expanded the $BYD short because it's up big today on the same news as everyone else.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:03
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Dorstein posted:Should have dumped when I was slightly green today. Why fight the Trump Pump? Same. I'm so stupid.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:05
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Hoping for an end of day rally so I can load up on SPXS.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:06
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Lote posted:So, $CZR may have incredible upside / downside moves tomorrow. A TON of people wrote puts for $CZR in anticipation of there being a merger arb, but that deal looks like it's going to follow through. The stock has like a short interest of 70% and is now hard to borrow. This may force people to buy shares on the open market. which would result in an epic move to the upside. I have covered the large majority of my short position and reduced exposure. Proceed at your own risk. Any insights into PENN?
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Mar 19, 2020 20:10
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DevCore posted:I haven't seen much official reporting but it looks like San Francisco is going into a 3-week 24 hour lockdown. Options aren't for hedging, they're for leverage.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:12
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Ulio posted:I have added a massive short position on volatility for next year jan21, which I accumulated this whole week on every sell off. VXX double decay + tvix openfeedback loop. Even if I lose I think the argument is very sound, + vix near the peak of the 08's crisis. Could be wrong so I also bought some otm IWM puts to hedge 25% of that trade, so basically a spread. That sounds like a solid trade. What are you using?
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Mar 19, 2020 20:14
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WTF, now I'm getting "This order cannot be accepted because the security symbol is not valid." from Schwab. Edit: figured it out, low volume issue. there was one call and it disappeared. i'm a moron. java fucked around with this message at 20:24 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 20:18
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I mean it's a smaller stock so fewer options were written on it. I gotta admit that I only know the basics of options and what they do. So put = the right to sell at the strike price, call = yada yada, writing calls exposes you to unlimited downside risk, the difference between Euro / American options, etc. It's hard to borrow but there 10 million shares to short. There weren't that many options written so you shouldn't see any bad upside move. CZR has 17 million shares available to short and and 400k outstanding puts, most of which are in the money. If $CZR's shares available to borrow drops under the 3-4 million mark, whoever wrote the option will subsequently have to buy the shares on the open market in order to exercise the option. This will cause a subsequent upside movement. Again, this is my most basic understanding of options. If CZR doesn't drop below that 3-4 million mark, whoever wrote the option can buy and short the same amount of stock at the same time in order to guarantee there will be no risk from the time you buy the stock to execution of the option.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:22
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Lot of support at 2400. Probably gonna close a little up, just wish I had a crystal ball for tomorrow. I'm assuming an overnight drop with it coming back to 2400 again to kill all the shorts at expiry.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:23
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java posted:WTF, now I'm getting "This order cannot be accepted because the security symbol is not valid." from Schwab. I've had this before in the Streetsmart software. For some reason you can see options there that aren't available in the website, it just won't let you purchase them.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:26
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java posted:Edit: figured it out, low volume issue. there was one call and it disappeared. i'm a moron. I've seen this happen with vol in the low 100s so I'm not sure it's only that.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:27
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Lote posted:So, $CZR may have incredible upside / downside moves tomorrow. A TON of people wrote puts for $CZR in anticipation of there being a merger arb, but that deal looks like it's going to follow through. The stock has like a short interest of 70% and is now hard to borrow. This may force people to buy shares on the open market. which would result in an epic move to the upside. I have covered the large majority of my short position and reduced exposure. Proceed at your own risk. Good to know, thanks! traded a couple of puts for calls to hedge and go both ways. I'm not trading anything expiring before June to protect me at least a little bit from getting burned. Joined you on BYD
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Mar 19, 2020 20:30
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I'm so loving dumb. Should've closed everything out yesterday, and rerolled some smaller positions. Only thing I did right was buy 4 puts on CACC. That's it. Down 10k in profit from yesterday.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:34
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Lote posted:So, $CZR may have incredible upside / downside moves tomorrow. A TON of people wrote puts for $CZR in anticipation of there being a merger arb, but that deal looks like it's going to follow through. The stock has like a short interest of 70% and is now hard to borrow. This may force people to buy shares on the open market. which would result in an epic move to the upside. I have covered the large majority of my short position and reduced exposure. Proceed at your own risk. How do you figure the merger is going through or not going through? I've been looking for articles about this but haven't found much.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:36
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Green to the moon cause why the poo poo not.
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Mar 19, 2020 20:44
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