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fnox posted:The problem is, he's been picky before. Exceptionally picky. As you may be aware of, it's not the first time oil prices have crashed and the Venezuelan economy bottomed out, then it was inconceivable that Maduro would accept loans, aid, even less so. Let's ignore the fact that these prices should be sustainable for the Venezuelan economy still had Maduro and Chavez not squandered the boom and actually invested in local infrastructure when they could. The Venezuelan health care system has been on crisis, full on crisis since Maduro has been in power. The reason why there is absolutely no capacity to treat people in the country has to do with his own decisions. I don't think any of this has to do with the fact that oil prices are approaching $20 a barrel, while Western institutions say they won't give any aid until Guaido becomes president. Nor does it have anything to do with the fact that a pandemic is rapidly escalating in Venezuela, while American sanctions have cut the country off from decent medical supplies. Things are going to get much worse in Venezuela, and what the country needs right now is aid, not self-righteous screeds on how the government shouldn't have invested in social welfare programs two decades ago. Now, I know that this is a very tempting situation. After all, like every other government, the Maduro administration is going to need to take drastic measures to contain the spread of coronavirus - so it's the perfect time to start spreading hyperbolic crap about murderous death squads, from a government that's so brutally oppressive toward dissenters that it still lets Guaido run free even after his failed coup attempt. And with severe deprivation and total financial collapse in Venezuela's near future, there's plenty of people ready to start posting poverty porn as examples of why Maduro needs to be overthrown. I'm just saying that it's a bad loving look when you take a gander at the historically bad circumstances Venezuela is facing and start drooling at all the political propaganda you can make from the impending tragedy.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:01
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fnox posted:I don't support Guaido. Current Venezuela is indistinguishable from the worst neoliberal nightmare. Then support eternal leader Maduro with your full heart and soul, move to Maracaibo, join a colectivo with some homies and kick back and relax smoking weed and stealing while you wait for the inevitable imperial war of aggression that's going to happen any day now surely. I kid, but what I'm telling you is, don't ever wish for Maduro and Guaido to sit down and talk like rational actors, if they came to an accord it would probably also be neoliberal and bad.
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Mar 19, 2020 00:02
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Fnox you're kinda acting like the Marco Rubio of
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Mar 19, 2020 00:27
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Bolsonaro and Maduro are both poo poo stains. But the former hasn't consolidated as much power as the latter and didn't heave a resource boom to mask the parties gross incompetence in every facet. It's fine to be angry at both, but the route Venezuela took wasn't the correct one. Which one is is difficult. Bolivia and initially Brazil took one route and were making great progress but were unfairly ousted. Venezuela's government has remained entrenched in power but has managed to make things worse due to its core philosophy resulting in massive corruption and chaos. There has to be another option. I also don't want to Amerixplain people in this thread, but Venezuela is the 2nd or the most dangerous country in the world and has held that title for over a decade. So while Brazil is also amongst the most dangerous, Venezuela is at an even higher level. Now how much of that is the PSUV's fault is a debate as that isn't my forte. punk rebel ecks fucked around with this message at 02:10 on Mar 19, 2020 |
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Mar 19, 2020 01:16
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punk rebel ecks posted:Bolsonaro and Maduro are both poo poo stains. But the former hasn't consolidated as much power as the latter and didn't heave a resource boom to mask the parties gross incompetence in every facet. Morales was not ousted politically, he was ousted militarily
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Mar 19, 2020 01:49
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Maduro ran the country into the ground, and while scooting along on the ground without landing gear, rotors chopping everything up in his way, he used illegitimate means to prevent opposition from removing him from office through proper democratic process. It's doubtful whether the guy who has for the better part of a decade caused the crisis has the capability to bring the country out of it, and there's no nice way to deal with the problems with him at the root of them all. The US government jumped on Venezuela like a wounded animal, but since he's spent so long building bad relations with the rest of the world, it's not like anybody's going to stand up for his regime. It just feels like half of Venezuela's problems center on Maduro and there's not much that Maduro has to justify staying in place to keep failing at solving the other half. Theoretically if he stepped down that could open things up to chaos or imperialism or the far right taking hold, but there's still not much worse things can get.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:10
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Sampatrick posted:Morales was not ousted politically, he was ousted militarily Correct. I edited my post.
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Mar 19, 2020 02:10
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A balanced budget is the only real solution to Venezuelan problems. There is no Alternative.
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Mar 19, 2020 10:47
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SlothfulCobra posted:Theoretically if he stepped down that could open things up to chaos or imperialism or the far right taking hold, but there's still not much worse things can get. Kurnugia posted:A balanced budget is the only real solution to Venezuelan problems. There is no Alternative. Crazy how people’s answers to Venezuela’s problems keeps coming back to “there aren’t enough people starving”
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Mar 19, 2020 13:52
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The definitive solution to Venezuela's problems would be to designate the entire country a national park run by Costa Rica.
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Mar 20, 2020 01:07
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What is the way out of the crisis for Venezuela? It doesn't seem like the regime has either the will or the resources to fix things; the ruling party appears to be devoid of any group that could replace Maduro and steer the country in a different direction; and the opposition would impose a pro-American regime that would sell whatever little of value remains for scrap.
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Mar 20, 2020 01:41
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The international community could stop its shameful sanctions and immediately start deploying massive amounts of aid.
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Mar 20, 2020 01:53
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steinrokkan posted:What is the way out of the crisis for Venezuela? It doesn't seem like the regime has either the will or the resources to fix things; the ruling party appears to be devoid of any group that could replace Maduro and steer the country in a different direction; and the opposition would impose a pro-American regime that would sell whatever little of value remains for scrap. Massive foreign aid and a resettlement program since the region will become seasonally uninhabitable within a few decades.
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Mar 20, 2020 02:18
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Pumping money into the whole system could work, but unless there's some kind of assurance that it will be invested into making the whole thing sustainable instead of mismanaged like everything else, then all the trouble will come right back the moment aid starts to dwindle. That's also entirely contingent on not just America letting up, but the international community taking it upon themselves to charitably prop up the regime that many of them have refused to recognize. It just seems like most deals that the international community would offer them would involve sacrificing some amount of sovereignty or Maduro stepping down. They're in a bad position for either bargaining or begging, and I don't think Maduro ever presented the image of being a good negotiator in the first place.
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Mar 20, 2020 02:54
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We're in the middle of a global pandemic, everyone should be focusing on immediate harm reduction. The sanctions are ghoulishly obscene and regardless of your previous political opinions on the matter you'd have to be an utter monster to think they shouldn't be immediately rescinded. Similarly I don't see why we should normalize the idea of America and other rich countries using aid as leverage during a crisis situation like this one. Everyone should be pointing out how horrifically immoral this behaviour is.
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Mar 20, 2020 03:47
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I don't know about normalization, over the last 200 years there's been a lot of bankers hovering around broke totalitarian regimes pushing for some kind of constitutional reform if for no other reason that popular support and rule of law makes loans a more secure investment. It's not particularly new for countries to use whatever leverage they have over other countries on the world stage, and in this crisis, since it's a worldwide crisis, probably will reduce the amount of charitable feeling floating around for Maduro to work with. I wouldn't call that justice, but it's how these things work. Maduro is largely responsible for leading his country into a position where it's much more vulnerable and he's on the outs with a big chunk of the international community. Nobody's said that the sanctions aren't immoral and imposed by a monster, but they're not going anywhere anytime soon unless something changes.
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Mar 20, 2020 04:43
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steinrokkan posted:What is the way out of the crisis for Venezuela? It doesn't seem like the regime has either the will or the resources to fix things; the ruling party appears to be devoid of any group that could replace Maduro and steer the country in a different direction; and the opposition would impose a pro-American regime that would sell whatever little of value remains for scrap. In the short-term, a lifting of sanctions, and large amounts of aid and subsidies without any expectation of returns or profits. This shouldn't just be food aid and such, or coronavirus-related aid, but also development aid to help rebuild the country's oil infrastructure, which has degraded significantly over the last few years. Even when it's been dug out of the hole, the country will probably need to be subsidized for a while, since Saudi Arabia is basically strangling every other petrostate with these massive price drops. Which leads into the only viable long-term fix for Venezuela: getting exempted from the rules of modern global capitalism for a decade or two. Venezuela will never have a stable economy as long as it's essentially dependent on resource extraction - especially a resource whose price can be manipulated so easily by other countries. But while it's easy to talk about diversifying their economy, it's extremely difficult to do in the modern era where globalism reigns supreme, because it means that the new industry needs to be built up to the point where it can compete evenly or better with every other country on the planet - and accomplishing that will skew state policy to the point of stretching the economic and political stability of most countries that aren't major powers. That's a feat that few countries have managed in the era of free trade, and most of the ones that did benefited from favorable treatment from wealthy superpower patrons determined to build them up for the sake of Cold War posturing. And even then, it usually comes with immense human suffering or a rapid succession of brutal tinpot dictators coming to power by murdering their predecessors. Even at its most prosperous times, Venezuela has never been in a position to build industry capable of outcompeting the US, Europe, China, India, and the various low-labor-cost regions those countries have offshored everything to. And that's not unique to Venezuela, either - it's a problem that a lot of economically "underdeveloped" countries struggle with. The globalized economy simply does not have room for new entrants as anything other than suppliers for Western industry or labor forces for Western companies. When open imperialism faded, it was simply replaced with economic imperialism, placing developing countries in the impossible position of needing to compete with superpowers.
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Mar 20, 2020 05:06
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Kurnugia posted:A balanced budget is the only real solution to Venezuelan problems. There is no Alternative. Venezuela has essentially defaulted into a balanced budget and dollarization. When you have no access to international credit and import everything there really isn't an alternative.
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Mar 20, 2020 05:44
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SlothfulCobra posted:Maduro is largely responsible for leading his country into a position where it's much more vulnerable and he's on the outs with a big chunk of the international community. In what way, besides being a dirty communista and not stepping down when the CIA wanted him to? I'm opposed to this line of thinking because it feels like victim blaming Latin American countries for not rolling over and doing the US's bidding so they can have international aid.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:00
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It also conveniently absolves the US for trying to Holodomor a country or doing something closer to genocide when they keep the sanctions on or even make them more severe during a pandemic.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:21
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In Venezuela like in Iran, the US are hoping the crisis will be a force multiplier for their sanction and finally cause the downfall of the regimes they want replaced with neoliberal fascist dictatorships that will allow US companies to extract resources cheaply while death squads are there to make sure the local population cannot get more than the smallest crumbs.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:28
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Cup Runneth Over posted:In what way, besides being a dirty communista and not stepping down when the CIA wanted him to? I'm opposed to this line of thinking because it feels like victim blaming Latin American countries for not rolling over and doing the US's bidding so they can have international aid. Running the oil industry into the ground by not investing anything back into the infrastructure and workers while also basing their whole economy around it. Wiping out any kind of local goods making the country completely reliant on exports. Making the living conditions significantly worse for everyone but the PSUV upper crust. Burning bridges with everyone willing to lend them money. Which of these count under "Being a dirty communista"?
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Mar 20, 2020 15:32
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Arzachel posted:Running the oil industry into the ground by not investing anything back into the infrastructure and workers while also basing their whole economy around it. Wiping out any kind of local goods making the country completely reliant on exports. Making the living conditions significantly worse for everyone but the PSUV upper crust. Burning bridges with everyone willing to lend them money. “Burning bridges with everyone willing to lend them money” by not being a US puppet state Maybe Venezuela wouldn’t have had to choose between feeding people and investing in the petroleum industry if the west didn’t lay down crippling sanctions and steal Venezuelan gold reserves
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Mar 20, 2020 16:24
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Yes, surely not being a US puppet state is why neither China nor Russia are willing to deal with them
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Mar 20, 2020 16:34
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wait, i thought china and russia loans were worse than IMF?
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Mar 20, 2020 16:41
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Arzachel posted:Yes, surely not being a US puppet state is why neither China nor Russia are willing to deal with them Venezuela just thanked China for coronavirus coordination and Russia and Venezuela just signed an agreement on space exploration and all three countries are still coordinating on getting oil moving past the blockade but go ahead and talk us through your fanfiction of the world rejecting Venezuelans for being uppity enough to choose their own president and not taking whoever the US picks.
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Mar 20, 2020 16:41
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Venezuela did embezzle billions from Rosneft. Not sure what consequences that had for their relationship with Russia, though.
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Mar 20, 2020 16:48
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Darth Walrus posted:Venezuela did embezzle billions from Rosneft. Not sure what consequences that had for their relationship with Russia, though. Depending on how important the Russian oligarch who would've otherwise embezzled that money was, and factoring in Russian state's foreign policy calculus, anywhere from 'zilch' to 'a little bit worse for the wear but oh well'
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Mar 20, 2020 16:56
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uninterrupted posted:Maybe Venezuela wouldn’t have had to choose between feeding people and investing in the petroleum industry if the west didn’t lay down crippling sanctions and steal Venezuelan gold reserves This was going on for over a decade before there were any type of sanctions.
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Mar 20, 2020 16:57
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punk rebel ecks posted:This was going on for over a decade before there were any type of sanctions. Sanctions started in ‘08 so, no. Also lol: punk rebel ecks posted:This may seem to be a can of worms, as likely tankies will start storming the place. But, wasn't Cuba the most developed country in Latin America, or at least the Carribean, before Castro took power?
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Mar 20, 2020 17:45
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uninterrupted posted:Also lol:
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Mar 20, 2020 18:55
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uninterrupted posted:Sanctions started in ‘08 so, no. Even before then it was very apparent.
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Mar 20, 2020 19:06
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Cup Runneth Over posted:In what way, besides being a dirty communista and not stepping down when the CIA wanted him to? he keeps refusing to pull the economy lever in his office to the "good" setting
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Mar 21, 2020 00:24
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Bolivia's completely legitimate interim government is postponing elections thanks to coronavirus.
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Mar 22, 2020 02:34
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brugroffil posted:Bolivia's completely legitimate interim government is postponing elections thanks to coronavirus. I mean, it's a good decision for any non-genocidal government of a country like Bolivia. The big problem is that the coup government have done an exceedingly poor job of demonstrating that they're not genocidal. It's a necessary measure that requires far more trust between the government and its citizens than they've bothered to earn.
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Mar 22, 2020 02:45
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(Crossposting from another forum) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bihqWZpPPhU March 24th, 2020. 9:30 p.m. President Jair Bolsonaro goes live on nation television to address the Brazilian population about the coronavirus crisis. Instead of acknowledging the seriousness of the impending health collapse and offering viable solutions so that essential public services could remain operating throughout April, which will see the peak of COVID-19 contamination in the country, President Bolsonaro once again denounced the coronavirus crisis as mass hysteria. Again. This time, on live TV. He blames the Brazilian press for inciting panic. He claims that Brazil cannot grind to a halt. He states that COVID-19 is "a little flu" and that he is personally safe because of his athletic [sic] background. He criticizes the state governors who, unlike the federal government, have enacted strict measures to contain the virus, establishing state-level quarantines, ordering the closure of all non-essential business and preparing the public healthcare system against its impending collapse. Bolsonaro called for revoking the state quarantines and returning the average Brazilian's life to normalcy. He said that the schools should be re-opened, because only the elderly are in danger, not the children. He denounces the governors for putting jobs and economic growth in risk. He proclaimed that he trusted in God to provide Brazilian scientists the means of procuring a cure for the disease. The Ministry of Healthcare, which had been preaching the exact opposite of the President, was unavailable for commentary. The Brazilian political class is riotous. Social media is on fire. If Bolsonaro still had any shred of legitimacy for dealing with the coronavirus crisis, he just completely destroyed it. This insanity might have just cost him the presidency, and probably reelection. 
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Mar 30, 2020 04:59
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Amiguito: Di NO a la extrema derecha.
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Mar 30, 2020 07:23
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https://twitter.com/Hezbolsonaro/status/1244689441551028224 He ain't looking so hot these days....
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Mar 30, 2020 19:47
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Jesus Christ, TW for body horror
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Mar 31, 2020 14:54
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I just came back to the thread to say that I'm amazed at how many people try to defend the government of Venezuela from what is currently happening there. Like the guy that got probated, you just need to sit with people that left their country and listen to the first hand stories they have. Latin America has many problems, some blamed on US doctrine, but drat, what is happening down there is loving terrifying and their government is responsible for most of it. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Apr 2, 2020 17:28
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