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Casino stocks are ripping up in the pre. Stop it, casino stocks.
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Mar 20, 2020 13:27
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Woodchip posted:That's a good idea. Ya I did a small trade on Jnug yesterday, a lot of these 3x ETFs are doing wild moves. DRIP, 3x bear oil, went from 800+ to 300 in a day. Unfortunately a lot of these have no options to trade so you have to trade the etf and you have to be quick with your trades. If we finish positive today, I think this 230s level will hold most of next week, unless news gets even more catastrophic, it's seems like jump in new cases is not incurring the same sell off's as before. It seems like Coronavirus has done it's damage, a lot of these wild moves just seem divergences/systematic issues/rebalancing etc.
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Mar 20, 2020 13:28
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Casino stocks are ripping up in the pre. Thats gotta be the canary in the coal mine that this is a bull trap lol
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Mar 20, 2020 13:28
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:If we hit SPY 2800 next week we’re cancelling virus response and putting stop pays on all the trumpbucks checks, right? They'll wait and see how the election pans out. If Trump loses, it'll be an extra bit tacked on to everyone's tax bill next year so that it can be used against whoever is in office. Ulio posted:It seems like Coronavirus has done it's damage In China, maybe. Just wait for unemployment figures, test results, and death counts here in the US. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 13:35 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 13:30
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China flu, Covid-19, who gives a poo poo. Let's sit back and watch shorts get their asses handed to them today.
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Mar 20, 2020 13:32
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LLCoolJD posted:Let's sit back and watch shorts get their asses handed to them today. Can we not do this too? The second people get out the pom poms and start treating this like a team sport--bulls vs. bears, gently caress you!--any stock discussion turns to utter trash. Bullish, bearish, you're all still on the "trying to make money" team, but might disagree as to gameplan.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:06
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I bought out the bear call spread I wrote yesterday at a profit. If we stayed under 2535 I'd have been fine, but I could see that breakout happening. Still hanging onto april and may puts. Kinda wish I'd pulled some cash out Wednesday to play with today; but I don't see any bounce lasting past unemployment numbers next Thursday. Agronox posted:Can we not do this too? The second people get out the pom poms and start treating this like a team sport--bulls vs. bears, gently caress you!--any stock discussion turns to utter trash. Bullish, bearish, you're all still on the "trying to make money" team, but might disagree as to gameplan. Seconding this. If you hold exclusively bearish positions or exclusively bullish positions you're not using your head. Also if your ignore list isn't properly populated.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:07
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I don't see any bounce lasting past unemployment numbers next Thursday.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:11
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Yeah, same team folks, team making money. Here we go again!
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Mar 20, 2020 14:19
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I think you can look at all the politicians, celebrities, and athletes getting this and deduce that the numbers we have from testing are so far from the real picture that its basically worthless to even talk about. China has gone 2 days now with no new cases. 0. S Korea is rapidly approaching that. This thing is so contagious we cant even figure out where it is. This is why China had such an extreme initial reaction - it was spreading very fast and there was zero understanding of it at the time. Now we know it moves fast and it burns out fast, its not particularly deadly, and you can start buying some loving stocks oh my god I should have bought WEN yesterday when I was talking about it. buying APA, some more EAT, CPE, AMC, CLF, SAVE in the premarket. Thinking about SIX...
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Mar 20, 2020 14:21
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greasyhands posted:I think you can look at all the politicians, celebrities, and athletes getting this and deduce that the numbers we have from testing are so far from the real picture that its basically worthless to even talk about. China has gone 2 days now with no new cases. 0. S Korea is rapidly approaching that. This thing is so contagious we cant even figure out where it is. This is why China had such an extreme initial reaction - it was spreading very fast and there was zero understanding of it at the time. Now we know it moves fast and it burns out fast, its not particularly deadly, and you can start buying some loving stocks oh my god I should have bought WEN yesterday when I was talking about it. buying APA, some more EAT, CPE, AMC, CLF, SAVE in the premarket. Thinking about SIX... You act like people aren't going to be spooked from shopping for a while. You say this like this isn't going to bust companies, like people haven't told off their bosses in response to being laid off recently. I'm pretty sure I'm getting laid off this week or next and we've had a few shouting matches so far with people that have. This is going to have very long term effects. I'm all for spreading false hope to people that need it, but you are playing with thousands of dollars, can we be realistic and serious here?
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Mar 20, 2020 14:23
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Most people are not hunkered down checking the virus update websites every 10 minutes wondering when theyre going to die, theyre trying to figure out when they can get a vacation for cheap or when they get to go back to work. Most people are not hoarding. This is a classic echo chamber situation. I'm not saying its not serious, but its recoverable and its going to move much faster than govt's are planning for- because they are prepping people for the worst case scenario. Just look at the headlines from the CA shutdown last night. Completely alarmist garbage. The light is already visible at the end of the tunnel
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Mar 20, 2020 14:30
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greasyhands posted:I think you can look at all the politicians, celebrities, and athletes getting this and deduce that the numbers we have from testing are so far from the real picture that its basically worthless to even talk about. China has gone 2 days now with no new cases. 0. S Korea is rapidly approaching that. This thing is so contagious we cant even figure out where it is. This is why China had such an extreme initial reaction - it was spreading very fast and there was zero understanding of it at the time. Now we know it moves fast and it burns out fast, its not particularly deadly, and you can start buying some loving stocks oh my god I should have bought WEN yesterday when I was talking about it. buying APA, some more EAT, CPE, AMC, CLF, SAVE in the premarket. Thinking about SIX... This is the sign that you should buy puts btw
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Mar 20, 2020 14:30
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So, I've openly disagreed with greasyhands on if we're at bottom pretty regularly over his ~2400 theory. But let's look at some economic data, because whether or not we're at bottom isn't going to factor in human misery, just number. If you checkout the Shanghai Stock Exchange numbers, their peak pre-covid was 3115.57, they dipped to 2746.61 on Feb 3, then started climbing back up and hit 3071.68 by Mar 5. If that ain't a v-shaped recovery, I don't know what is. I mean, yeah, it may be blunted by the fact that yesterday March 19, they closed at 2702.13, but today's back up. Being bearish atm isn't a sure thing. I think enough things are materially different about how COVID-19 will affect the US that we're not near bottom, but that's one of the points in having a market.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:31
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gay picnic defence posted:Would Boeing be worth a punt at the current price, or if it gets a bailout are shareholders likely to get fisted? I doubt it will be allowed to fail but whether it’s a good deal depends on what the bailout terms are and how fast you think airlines are going to recover.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:32
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lol casino stocks up again damnit
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Mar 20, 2020 14:37
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Anton Chigurh posted:Maybe not? PENN is back up over $6 and RRR over $5 on the dead cat bounce. Speaking of which, my MAR puts are probably gonna poo poo the bed but that’s the only short position I have atm. Josh Lyman fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 14:39
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Touch elbows and lets GO!1!! e. down
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Mar 20, 2020 14:41
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LLCoolJD posted:China flu, Covid-19, who gives a poo poo. Let's sit back and watch shorts get their asses handed to them today. I'm trying to short more $PENN but trading is halted Edit: Shorted at $9.14. Eyeballing expanding CZR and RRR shorts. TSLA after wild AH, premarket trading is even for some reason. Lote fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Mar 20, 2020 |
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Mar 20, 2020 14:44
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https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1240987869709250560 https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/1240989723784593415
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Mar 20, 2020 14:45
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:So, I've openly disagreed with greasyhands on if we're at bottom pretty regularly over his ~2400 theory. But let's look at some economic data, because whether or not we're at bottom isn't going to factor in human misery, just number. There is plenty of room for different opinions in our situation, and I respect yours. All I have to say is every single time people fail to see through the panic, and this is a whole different and new kind of panic which, as you have just pointed out, we already have a model for. Theres a lot of time to make money in both directions over the next few months, but thinking this thing is just going to keep going straight down because theres a virus that we are *already beginning to understand* is just plain stupid. There are companies that went up 50% yesterday and are still incredibly cheap by any metric you want to choose. No, Wendys is not going to go out of business from this.. wtf? Yes, there will be some companies fail... so what? Theres going to be some insanely bad economic numbers come out, but guess what? EVERYONE ELSE KNOWS THAT TOO. The market will price what they expect to happen, and we will be through this with a massive GDP rebound bump by this summer. I am sorry some people seem to be disappointed that this virus isnt going to wipe out half the working population, but we know what it does. We know what we need to do. And we are doing it. Time to start looking at the recovery from it. This line of commentary isnt aimed at you btw, Dwight. Your comment was just a good springboard for another rant
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Mar 20, 2020 14:45
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Guys SPX just dove 60 points what is happening 
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Mar 20, 2020 14:46
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Josh Lyman posted:Guys SPX just dove 60 points what is happening Legit like it was tossed off a cliff. Jesus. 
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Mar 20, 2020 14:49
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Yeah, this is insane. The market literally dropped 3% in 10 mins and nobody on CNBC even cares. Remember when a 3% move was headline news?
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Mar 20, 2020 14:51
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Colonel Taint posted:All non-life-sustaining businesses in PA ordered to shut down: https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-shutdown-lifesustaining-businesses-tom-wolf-shut-down-20200319.html https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6815335-20200319-Life-Sustaining-Business.html#document/p1
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Mar 20, 2020 14:52
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Risky Bisquick posted:This is the sign that you should buy puts btw What does this comment mean? Are you just insulting me or are you saying deducing that infections are way way higher than we currently suspect is bearish? Its actually bullish- it means its not killing people or even hospitalizing them. All of the high profile people who have gotten this have basically said either "I felt like poo poo for the weekend so I did my laundry and took a nap" or "I had no symptoms". Its hard on people with respiratory disorders or weak immune systems, which is not really uncommon for about any virus....
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Mar 20, 2020 14:53
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Feeling good about those APRN puts I picked up. Had to pay a significant premium, but lol at this piece of poo poo being 24 a share.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:53
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Agronox posted:Can we not do this too? Sorry, you're right. I was feeling chippy. I should have focused on the positive. Today might be a good time to buy MO. Down 5% on news of a two-week closure in Richmond. I might split my buy between MO and BTI.
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Mar 20, 2020 14:55
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Josh Lyman posted:Guys SPX just dove 60 points what is happening its the witching hour, literally everyone said get ready for some whippits today
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Mar 20, 2020 15:03
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"Ah, yes, this company whose entire profit line has been closed is a good investment", people currently buying PENN
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Mar 20, 2020 15:06
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Once a putt is negative, is there any point in closing it early? If it's negative you won't make any money in it so you might as well let it ride and hope for a reversal of fortune right?
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Mar 20, 2020 15:06
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greasyhands posted:There is plenty of room for different opinions in our situation, and I respect yours. All I have to say is every single time people fail to see through the panic, and this is a whole different and new kind of panic which, as you have just pointed out, we already have a model for. Theres a lot of time to make money in both directions over the next few months, but thinking this thing is just going to keep going straight down because theres a virus that we are *already beginning to understand* is just plain stupid. There are companies that went up 50% yesterday and are still incredibly cheap by any metric you want to choose. No, Wendys is not going to go out of business from this.. wtf? We cool  I've been shying away from dipping into any strikes in the 100's range because even though I don't think 2400 is the floor, I'm not inclined to bet for apocalyptic outcomes either. I think that I have a higher estimation of our exposure to reaching an apocalyptic financial position than you do, but I'm not prepared to bet that we'll get there. FWIW, that exposure is that a substantial chunk of our economic activity has been reducing slack, e.g. companies that were only a few quarters ago issuing buybacks now asking for bailouts, and that a shock like this MAY be sufficient to overwhelm the greater financial system. We have to remember THAT was the impetus for 2008: cascading failure that impacted parties far separated from deciding to engage in risky activitiaes. Nearer term, like, next 6 hours: There's a LOT of open interest at 2405, and we're not showing support keeping us above it, but we're also not dropping much below it. Remember that loss on a putis the difference at expiry and the strike, so even if we get under 2400, that doesn't necessarily mean the writers are eating poo poo depending on how much premium they collected. If you sold a 2410 put expiring today, you make money so long as SPX closes above 2376 because premium's been so high. However there's not a lot of margin for error and if we get some shock in the news today that pushes things down, those puts will be awful expensive for the writers and they may have to liquidate to meet their margin. Which may create a positive feedback loop that puts a lot of downward pressure on at the end of the day. This isn't a useful prediction right now, but more of a conditional, "If X, then reasonably Y"
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Mar 20, 2020 15:07
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UAL, AAL, DAL having good days, LUV red. Premiums are huge in either direction.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:07
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Megasabin posted:Once a putt is negative, is there any point in closing it early? If it's negative you won't make any money in it so you might as well let it ride and hope for a reversal of fortune right? You can sell it (sell to close) to salvage some value. The original writer is still on the hook, not you.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:08
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Megasabin posted:Once a putt is negative, is there any point in closing it early? If it's negative you won't make any money in it so you might as well let it ride and hope for a reversal of fortune right?
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Mar 20, 2020 15:09
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Was expecting another one of those big move days today leading into the weekend so I'm a bit surprised.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:10
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Megasabin posted:Once a putt is negative, is there any point in closing it early? If it's negative you won't make any money in it so you might as well let it ride and hope for a reversal of fortune right? It depends on what your risk tolerance is and what you reasonably think the future of the stock is. If you're not at $0 but you don't think it's gonna recover, why not cut your losses? If you think the stock will probably recover for a while then drop you might want to sell your contract and rebuy it at a cheaper price, or maybe it's better to just hold it and avoid the risk that you are wrong. Unlike stocks, options lose money over time so staying in means losing more money every day you don't sell.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:11
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Here is my dumb baby learning moment. The reason I have settled funds which can be used for stocks but not options on Schwab is because this cash is still the funds from a deposit I made two days ago. Schwab apparently will let you use the money from a deposit within a day once it shows up for stocks, but for some reason not options until it's fully "arrived" (despite it showing up as settled). So I watching everyone open SPY PUT positions with envy today 
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Mar 20, 2020 15:13
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Josh Lyman posted:You can close it early if you think it will go down in value and/or expire worthless. For example, my MRNA 30 calls expiring today went from $5 to $0.50 when the stock tanked from 34 to 27 over like 15 min yesterday morning, so I closed them this morning just to recover some premium since they’re likely to expire worthless. Let me clarify to make sure I understand. Are you saying that if you are already hitting your strike price, but it's starting to turn the other direction, there's room to sell to take some profits from it? Or are you saying that even if you are out of your break even range, you can still lose less money by selling it early? My understanding was that if you don't hit your break even, your put will be worthless regardless of whether you missed the mark by 1 dollar or 30 dollars. To give a real example. I had a Marriott put for 53 dollars. Would there be any difference if I sold to close at 54 dollars vs 70 dollars? Would I lose less money one way?
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Mar 20, 2020 15:14
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:"Ah, yes, this company whose entire profit line has been closed is a good investment", people currently buying PENN Yeah, I don’t get it either unless rumors of casino bailouts are causing them to buy.
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Mar 20, 2020 15:14
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