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Get me down as S&P 1875 and oil at 19.25.
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Mar 22, 2020 04:11
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This would be even more fun if we were able to make new projections at the end of every week, and chart out the trend over time.
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Mar 22, 2020 04:27
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2075 and 18.
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Mar 22, 2020 04:29
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Ya just add a data point for the day we made the predictions (or just today for everyone so far) and then we can track how wrong everyone is each day and trade on a volatility index of goon misinformation ($GON?). Calls on TGON.
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Mar 22, 2020 04:30
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based on previous data and the most volatile event in market history there's no way we don't go 50% top to bottom on this one. Give me 175 SPY and 18 Crude. The notion that the US response will be as effective as China's is insane to me, but I've already been dipping my toes in buy for sure. Edit: since 1775 is already taken ill go with 1669 and 20. Edit 2: Please don't buy options right now instead buy/sell verticals and diagonals jfc A large farva fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 05:00
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SP won’t break 2000, I’ll say 2100 just to be safe. Oil won’t go any lower than 20 but it’ll stay there for a bit because Putin is gonna try and prove he’s badder than the Saudis. So 2100/20 for me.
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Mar 22, 2020 05:09
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S&P NULL oil NULL Because 
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Mar 22, 2020 05:09
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greasyhands posted:Any multimillionaire that dies because they cant figure out how to get access to a ventilator probably made their millions on bitcoin Dude what the hell is this? do you even know what a ventilator is? It’s not like a Snowblower that you can buy off eBay and you’re done. But good luck to all the multimillionaires anesthetizing and intubating themselves and monitoring themselves, while also being in a coma, and then getting the tube out, once they are healed from Dying of ARDS while also monitoring themselves and treating themselves on the vent while also being unconscious. On top of what the other guy pointed out (that you would not be able to take delivery of a ventilator) how much money would it take to recruit a doctor and staff to monitor and treat you around the clock and have all the needed equipment and meds on hand which is far more than just the vent?the money it would take to be on some kind of “private ventilator” that you seem to be envisioning is not “multimillionaire” money It’s like supervillain money. guitartorch fucked around with this message at 05:27 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 05:22
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Im watching MTCH, KO, and KDP but staying Conservative - trying to see how our new economy pieces itself together without share buy-backs and massive unemployment The former economy is dead btw - navigating the new economy will take a stretch.
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Mar 22, 2020 05:33
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If any millionaires in this thread want to buy a vent and pay me (a critical care respiratory therapist) huge amounts of money to manage it pls pm me I have plat. E: the old economy is still dying, we'll meet the new economy when people are able to earn and spend money again IMO
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Mar 22, 2020 05:34
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VelociBacon posted:If any millionaires in this thread want to buy a vent and pay me (a critical care respiratory therapist) huge amounts of money to manage it pls pm me I have plat. So you're saying I should close my PENN call spreads I sold? Edit: also TGON isn't a ticker so it's confusing to me why you would keep posting in a stock thread without mentioning actual stocks. A large farva fucked around with this message at 06:04 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 05:50
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Agronox posted:Just for fun and bragging rights. This is amazing. Crude... $19.50(46), oil war seems to be averted. S&P 2075. 1st_Panzer_Div. fucked around with this message at 07:06 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 07:03
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The local media and various economists I follow are saying this going to be at least as bad as the GFC so I'll go roughly 50% from top to bottom for SPY, lets say 160. Oil I have no clue about but I'm going to assume the Saudis and Russia aren't going to let a rolled gold opportunity to gently caress over the US shale producers go to waste and will turn the screws for a while longer, plus there's probably going to be decreased demand as transport falls in a heap for the next 3-4 months. No idea how much of that is already priced in. $16.50
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Mar 22, 2020 07:28
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197 spy; I barely know what oil is so the current low I guess
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Mar 22, 2020 07:56
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Alright, let's do some knife catching. SNP 1990, Oil 17.
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Mar 22, 2020 08:35
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Put me down for S&P at $2k even and $16.5 oil
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Mar 22, 2020 08:36
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SP 1669 Oil $16.69
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Mar 22, 2020 09:43
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S&P 1000, Crude oil 6.50$ Sure the world would probably end shortly thereafter and the entire US oil industry would be long since thrown through the wheat thresher but heck, why not.
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Mar 22, 2020 09:48
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If I think we’ll see another -10% in the S&P, does it make sense to buy Apr or June puts? Apr is cheaper and I’d roll them out to June a week before expiration or is that too late and sacrifices too much to theta decay?
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Mar 22, 2020 09:55
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Josh Lyman posted:If I think we’ll see another -10% in the S&P, does it make sense to buy Apr or June puts? Apr is cheaper and I’d roll them out to June a week before expiration or is that too late and sacrifices too much to theta decay? I believe so, my SPY put is for Apr 1st and I plan on rolling it out as well after selling it at some point before then. I'm not sure which strategy is more cost effective.
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Mar 22, 2020 10:02
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I'm tipping the ASX is going to implode tomorrow given the entire country is now in full lockdown mode.
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Mar 22, 2020 10:03
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guitartorch posted:Dude what the hell is this? do you even know what a ventilator is? It’s not like a Snowblower that you can buy off eBay and you’re done. But good luck to all the multimillionaires anesthetizing and intubating themselves and monitoring themselves, while also being in a coma, and then getting the tube out, once they are healed from Dying of ARDS while also monitoring themselves and treating themselves on the vent while also being unconscious. On top of what the other guy pointed out (that you would not be able to take delivery of a ventilator) how much money would it take to recruit a doctor and staff to monitor and treat you around the clock and have all the needed equipment and meds on hand which is far more than just the vent?the money it would take to be on some kind of “private ventilator” that you seem to be envisioning is not “multimillionaire” money It’s like supervillain money. First of all, its a fuckin joke, man. But, fwiw, yes I worked in emergent care for years (air ambulance) and yea i know what a ventilator is and how they work. Ive even assisted in many intubations! I am not medical personnel though. People are on private ventilators at home all the time, i have no idea what makes you think it would take supervillain money. Yes, someone needs to know how to work it and support you while youre on it.... there are a whole lot of people that know how to do that, its not rocket science. Why in the world would you assume they have to do it all on their own? We are presumably discussing a situation where the options are die in the street or take action, in which case someone with lots of money at their disposal could make it happen. Is it hosed up? Sure, but were not debating the morality of it greasyhands fucked around with this message at 12:30 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 10:10
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guitartorch posted:Dude what the hell is this? do you even know what a ventilator is? It’s not like a Snowblower that you can buy off eBay and you’re done. But good luck to all the multimillionaires anesthetizing and intubating themselves and monitoring themselves, while also being in a coma, and then getting the tube out, once they are healed from Dying of ARDS while also monitoring themselves and treating themselves on the vent while also being unconscious. On top of what the other guy pointed out (that you would not be able to take delivery of a ventilator) how much money would it take to recruit a doctor and staff to monitor and treat you around the clock and have all the needed equipment and meds on hand which is far more than just the vent?the money it would take to be on some kind of “private ventilator” that you seem to be envisioning is not “multimillionaire” money It’s like supervillain money. I'd just like to step in and make a bet that a good part of the richest people in America are in the process of buying a ventilator (successfully and getting in front of hospitals) and having a doctor on retainer in case they need it. I don't know what makes you think they aren't. They'll gladly spend a couple million on this if necessary, because they have all the money. e: my bet is SP 1600 and oil 17
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Mar 22, 2020 10:14
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They dont even need a doctor, they just need a paramedic and that woefully under appreciated demographic makes around$15/hr. For people that dont know, ventilators are literally just air pumps... yes they need someone who knows enough to not blow up the persons lungs.. cpap machines are technically ventilators although you would need an invasive ventilator in this case.
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 10:23 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 10:19
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I don't want to make the derail worse but you'd need like a hospital bed, vent, supply of oxygen, IV pumps, someone to run the pumps and vent, somewhere to run a variety of blood tests, a place to do chest xrays at a minimum if not CT chest imaging and tons of other stuff.
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Mar 22, 2020 10:24
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Again, were not talking about proper care protocol necessarily. Were talking about surviving disease onset in some sort of semi-apocalyptic scenario. It would not be impossible to keep someone on a ventilator for a couple of days in a nonhospital environment while the symptoms subside. Might they die? Yes, but so do some of the ventilated people in hospitals. Might they have a higher chance of dying? Absolutely they would, but were talking about last ditch efforts. It would not require the purchase of a hospital bed.... wtf. Its not hard to get medical grade oxygen, you can even just use a concentrator WHY are we having this argument??
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 11:57 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 10:28
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I'm down at S&P 1900 and oil 18.50
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Mar 22, 2020 11:12
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Man Monday can't come fast enough...you guys and your lockdown weekend posting I tell ya...
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Mar 22, 2020 12:07
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This is pretty cool - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-emissions/ this is funny - https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/22/world/doomsday-prophets-coronavirus-blake/index.html greasyhands fucked around with this message at 12:48 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 12:20
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pmchem posted:are these price-is-right rules or just nearest absolute error? Uh, good question. Let's just say absolute error. spf3million posted:I'm just a spectator in this thread but why not have some fun. Welcome to the thread!  (If someone gave me an oil number that we've already blown through I used the actual YTD low. Will organize this a little better once all the entries are locked in later today.)
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Mar 22, 2020 13:15
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S&P 1776, WTI $13.37
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Mar 22, 2020 13:38
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MAR sent a letter to employees, 10% pay cut across the board for grunts, 30% cuts for all management and they are going to try and not lay people off. Edit: this is incorrect, it is at the atlanta corporate office only. Senior management will take 50%. All 401ks are suspended greasyhands fucked around with this message at 14:23 on Mar 22, 2020 |
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Mar 22, 2020 13:38
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greasyhands posted:This is pretty cool - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/coronavirus-lockdowns-emissions/ Itll be interesting to see the environmental improvement a few months of global shut down cause. I dont think much, but it will be a fascinating study. Also lol @ that 2020 prediction. She got the year right (which is unfair because 2020 is a good sounding year to predict poo poo) but totally missed on it being untreatable and it sure as poo poo wont disappear. They shouldn't even entertain that kind of fear mongering
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Mar 22, 2020 13:39
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greasyhands posted:MAR sent a letter to employees, 10% pay cut across the board for grunts, 30% cuts for all management and they are going to try and not lay people off. Cool, thanks. I can't understand why these stocks like MAR and MGM are rebounding when there's literally no reason to expect them to experience any kind of success. I suppose people are just thinking that they were hit a little too hard or something by selloffs?
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Mar 22, 2020 13:47
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VelociBacon posted:Cool, thanks. I can't understand why these stocks like MAR and MGM are rebounding when there's literally no reason to expect them to experience any kind of success. I suppose people are just thinking that they were hit a little too hard or something by selloffs? Yes, thats exactly it. MGM under $10 is a good buy that will make you money if you hold it for a few years. Add more if it goes below 5. As soon as the curve is flattened everywhere and people start trickling back out, this stuff is going to really pop. It'll take a while to get back to $30 because no doubt damage is being done, but buy a little now and buy a little more if it drops.. enjoy your moneys when the world gets back to normal. Donate it to charity if you think speculating during times like these is immoral
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Mar 22, 2020 13:50
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greasyhands posted:Donate it to charity if you think speculating during times like these is immoral Thanks, and no I don't think any of this is immoral. I'm buying puts etc.
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Mar 22, 2020 14:01
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I think I might have some bad info on Marriot, im trying to get a copy of the letter that went out.
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Mar 22, 2020 14:18
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S&P 1780, WTI crude $18.75
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Mar 22, 2020 14:49
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Sepist posted:Itll be interesting to see the environmental improvement a few months of global shut down cause. I dont think much, but it will be a fascinating study.
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Mar 22, 2020 15:05
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greasyhands posted:They dont even need a doctor, they just need a paramedic and that woefully under appreciated demographic makes around$15/hr. For people that dont know, ventilators are literally just air pumps... yes they need someone who knows enough to not blow up the persons lungs.. cpap machines are technically ventilators although you would need an invasive ventilator in this case. Ok you have no idea what you’re talking about
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Mar 22, 2020 15:17
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