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Who is your first pick in the deputy leadership race? This poll is closed. |
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| R. Allin-Khan |
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6 | 1.60% |
| R. Burgon |
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80 | 21.33% |
| D. Butler |
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72 | 19.20% |
| A. Rayner |
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35 | 9.33% |
| I. Murray |
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5 | 1.33% |
| P. Flaps |
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177 | 47.20% |
| Total: | 375 votes | ||
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goddamnedtwisto posted:- Why *is* Italy so far ahead of the curve compared to the rest of Europe? I know they have an older population so are more likely to have a higher death rate - given the very different test regimes is it possible that accounts for why they started seeing deaths before us on it's own, or is there some other reason why (presumably) Milan copped it first rather than London, Paris, or Frankfurt? All have much higher levels of international travel than Milan. Lombardy has a significant population of Chinese migrant workers that work in garment factories. A lot would have travelled home over Christmas and come back, before China was warning there was a problem.
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Mar 25, 2020 00:50
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I was initially joking about the fashion week but now you've said that...
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Mar 25, 2020 00:51
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saw this in the cspam thread https://twitter.com/EllenBarryNYT/s...ingawful.com%2F if things do get really bad here, it's going to have a terrible effect on everyone who works in a hospital. And huge numbers of other people obviously, but I hope most of the public aren't going to be spending several weeks or months working long shifts in terrible conditions and making difficult decisions and watching people they can't help die on my government approved walk round the park, thinking about my uncles and aunts who are doctors, my dad who was one and has already been asked if he will go back to work if it gets bad, one of my best friends and one of my cousins are doing foundation years, all the medics I sort of knew at university or as friends of friends, all of them are going to be on the frontlines of a horrendous and avoidable disaster and some of them might even die and it's just slightly unreal still. I just feel a bit useless, and incredibly worried and sad for all of them my friends hospital (actually the one near portstewart, he confirmed the town was absolutely rammed over the weekend, who ever mentioned that earlier) has just got its first confirmed case and apparently they only have surgical masks  I got thinking about my next door neighbour who used to be a livestock vet. once when we were out walking his dogs, for whatever reason we ended talking about the foot and mouth crisis and he was clearly still broken up about condemning entire herds to be culled even a decade or more later. and they were just cows and sheep sorry for the gloomy post, I hope everyone stays safe out there, esp any NHS goons 
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Mar 25, 2020 00:54
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My nan on my dad's side used to be an assistant to a livestock vet in rural parts. Apparently sometimes (back in the 50s and 60s) when someone on a farm was very sick with cancer or bowel disease or similar, they'd call for a livestock vet rather than a doctor, because a livestock vet could dispense barbiturates. For the horses. I hope that we come out of the other end of this with a better sense of dignity in dying, because that's something that we've repeatedly refused to countenance in the decades since.
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Mar 25, 2020 01:02
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XMNN posted:for whatever reason we ended talking about the foot and mouth crisis and he was clearly still broken up about condemning entire herds to be culled even a decade or more later. and they were just cows and sheep Yeah there is probably going to be some actual death panels poo poo and it's going to gently caress a few good people up for life having to do it. The end of April is when we'll see if the government has done even the most basic worker protections but until then keep the faith stay sitting on your loving sofa "We also must engage in large scale social distancing. The way social distancing works requires faith: we must begin to see the negative space as clearly as the positive, to know what we don't do is also brilliant and full of love. We face such a strange task, here, to come together in spirit and keep a distance in body at the same time. We can do it... The time when the invisible becomes visible is at hand." The chance to be an actual hero by playing PS4 and masturbating is a rare thing y'all best be giving a poo poo and doing your part.
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Mar 25, 2020 01:07
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Any efforts to bring about better end of life care in this country will have to face the legacy of Harold Shipman.
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Mar 25, 2020 01:09
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[This post has been deleted.]
pumpinglemma fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 01:12
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https://twitter.com/taintberner/status/1242117190754721792 Oopsies
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Mar 25, 2020 01:14
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JeremoudCorbynejad posted:The FT graphs are getting fancy, partially because they're nicking ideas from the Economist's graphs I'm not a professional graph person, but aren't these graphs a complete mess? The stuff near the origin's unreadable, even the colour coding is rubbish because they reuse it. Which line is South Korea and which is Japan?! Feels like it'd be more useful if they tried to colour code the gradients instead, so you can see how things developed instead of trying to eyeball how many degrees off a line each one is
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Mar 25, 2020 01:26
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baka kaba posted:I'm not a professional graph person, but aren't these graphs a complete mess? The stuff near the origin's unreadable, even the colour coding is rubbish because they reuse it. Which line is South Korea and which is Japan?! It definitely seems to be a case of starting with a clear, useful graph with explanatory notes on the side and gradually feature-creeping to one graph with twelve stories in it. If the guy just made four graphs with the same data and different annotations and different lines highlighted they'd all be fine and very useful i think
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Mar 25, 2020 01:36
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https://twitter.com/Hezbolsonaro/status/1242605613433184256?s=20
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Mar 25, 2020 01:39
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XMNN posted:my friends hospital (actually the one near portstewart, he confirmed the town was absolutely rammed over the weekend, who ever mentioned that earlier) has just got its first confirmed case and apparently they only have surgical masks Was me. It was ridiculous. There are so many old people who live there, too That was my pushup technique in PE at school but I weighed ~18 stone at the time  crispix fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 01:42
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loving crossfit
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Mar 25, 2020 01:42
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I know I'm not really here but I just saw this (linked to from a comment under a Graun article). I quickly skimmed but not read (too tired just now to take it in). Didn't want to leave it til Thursday before posting Minutes of 2nd NERVTAG meeting (New & Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) - 21st January 2020 - Public Health England https://m.box.com/shared_item/https%3A%2F%2Fapp.box.com%2Fs%2F3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/view/616822606941 The person posting the link said Section 4 illustrated the complacency of the UK. The minutes for 1st Meeting 13th January are also accessible from that link if you click the back arrow at the pdf name. Proof that the UK absolutely knew this was coming 10 weeks ago.
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Mar 25, 2020 01:43
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Azza Bamboo posted:The concept of viral loading is being thrown around, hypothesizing that the severity of your symptoms is in proportion to your exposure while infected. Ie if you just caught it off a handrail and went back to your lonely bedsit to isolate you'd be fine, but if you caught it off the 5 people in your household and kept passing it around one another before the symptoms hit, it'd hit hard because you'd loaded up on the virus before it really sunk in. The paper being quoted re: viral loading doesn't actually say any of that and has been misinterpreted. What they showed was high viral loads (i.e. more viral RNA on the PCR test) was correlated with poorer outcomes. It doesn't mean you were necessarily exposed to more viral particles, but for some reason you are shedding a lot more of them. This could then lead to poorer outcomes any number of reasons eg: - Your immune system is incapable of controlling the spread of the virus and it is now replicating rapidly - Your cells are easier to infect for some reason - some mutation in the receptors responsible for invasion could be responsible. The MSM and twitter brigade have fallen straight into the 'correlation does not imply causality' trap. As far as I know (though I am no virologist), there isn't any way of quantifying the actual infection load unless you manage to contact trace a whole bunch of cases back to the point of infection and then make some guesses as to their exposure.
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Mar 25, 2020 01:48
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Jaeluni Asjil posted:I know I'm not really here but I just saw this (linked to from a comment under a Graun article).
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Mar 25, 2020 01:54
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The problem with the government response is not the lack of border screening early on. Even with very accurate tests with low false positive rates, if you have no reason to believe that the people involved have the disease you'll get vastly more false positives than you will true positives (this is also the reason why wide scale cancer screenings aren't really that useful except for inflating survival statistics by detecting benign tumours). Stocking up on masks and tests and preparing a response is what should have happened, not this clearly "oh christ we have no idea what we're doing" leadership we have. Z the IVth posted:The MSM and twitter brigade have fallen straight into the 'correlation does not imply causality' trap. As far as I know (though I am no virologist), there isn't any way of quantifying the actual infection load unless you manage to contact trace a whole bunch of cases back to the point of infection and then make some guesses as to their exposure. There's a lot of fundamental misunderstandings of how things work. For example: Guavanaut posted:Initial viral load seems to have a large weighting on later experience among equivalent people, a high initial viral load like in the Birmingham church cases seems to have worse outcomes than from a single exposure. It makes sense if you draw an exponential graph starting with 2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4... and compare it with 3^1, 3^2, 3^3, 3^4... No no no. The comparison is between 2^n and 2^(n+1) (or whatever) not 2^n and 3^n. The latter would involve the virus producing 50% more every reproduction event, just having more to start with won't do that. MrL_JaKiri fucked around with this message at 02:00 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 01:57
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I thought the plan was to delay the lockdown until the point where the economic impact of locking down meets the economic impact of the sickness burden.
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Mar 25, 2020 02:02
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pumpinglemma posted:Section 4 actually looks pretty reasonable, though? The only point of health screening on inbound flights is if you can stop all infectious people from entering the country. With something like coronavirus where there's a vast number of asymptomatic carriers, you basically either institute full two-week quarantines for literally everyone coming into the country, or you do nothing. Anything else is a useless half measure that makes Number go down without actually saving any lives, because you still get undetected cases spreading in the UK which still leads to a full-blown epidemic. So the question is whether going full Madagascar was justified back in mid-January, which... OK with hindsight it totally was, but I feel like I'd have a hard time convincing myself of that two months ago. (But even with hindsight, I suspect a much better use of time and resources would have been stocking up on masks and test kits for a South Korea-type response.) I do feel that this view is very much 'perfect being the enemy of good'. You may not stop everyone but you can certainly catch the worst off and get them quarantined rather than leaving them free to spread the disease throughout the population. Reading through Section 4 it does seem to me like the group did not want to be seen to overreact and chose to err on the side of caution. This is the same strategy that is being played out by Boris et al now, lots of "please do this" and "please do that" rather than "OBEY OR FACE THE CONSEQUENCES".
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Mar 25, 2020 02:03
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edit: deleted
duckmaster fucked around with this message at 16:31 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 02:04
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MrL_JaKiri posted:The problem with the government response is not the lack of border screening early on. Even with very accurate tests with low false positive rates, if you have no reason to believe that the people involved have the disease you'll get vastly more false positives than you will true positives (this is also the reason why wide scale cancer screenings aren't really that useful except for inflating survival statistics by detecting benign tumours). The most likely explanation is susceptible individuals just produce loads more virus because it isn't being suppressed. Known example - Scabies. For most people you get a couple of mites hanging around. They lay eggs, reproduce but due to your immune system, not every offspring is viable. If you are vulnerable (say with extensive immunosuppression), then you get Norwegian scabies, where the mites reproduce uncontrollably and you have literal thousands upon thousands of them crawling about everywhere.
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Mar 25, 2020 02:09
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Surely the medium-term goal of the government should be to move to a South Korean-style system of heavy testing and tracking. That way we can go back to a semblance of normal life while still fighting the virus. The reason they haven’t done that already is that they don’t have the planning or resources, but considering the circumstances it feels like they should be able to organise that in a few months.
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Mar 25, 2020 02:19
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Z the IVth posted:I do feel that this view is very much 'perfect being the enemy of good'. You may not stop everyone but you can certainly catch the worst off and get them quarantined rather than leaving them free to spread the disease throughout the population. Reading through Section 4 it does seem to me like the group did not want to be seen to overreact and chose to err on the side of caution. This is the same strategy that is being played out by Boris et al now, lots of "please do this" and "please do that" rather than "OBEY OR FACE THE CONSEQUENCES".
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Mar 25, 2020 02:22
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I think one of the worst things about the government response is the complete failure to have a plan b like, ok they stuck with plan a for too long and the NHS is not equipped to deal with a crisis of this scale, the first one is due to bad modelling and the second one is a money thing. they're bad, but I can understand sort of how and why I they happened but once it became clear that their strategy had failed and they would have to move to containment, it turned out that they had no plans for shutting things down because it never even crossed their minds that it would be necessary. just basic poo poo, like not knowing whether they were going to shut schools, then deciding that they were but not for key workers children, then not knowing what exactly qualified as a key worker, then not knowing who should be working from home, what shops are essential etc etc stuff that literally just needs planning. you don't need to build hospitals, pay staff, purchase and store ppe or anything, you don't need to know stuff about the specific disease, it might even be useful in other civil emergencies, and you just need to get some people to think about it and then you have a backup plan that you can use if you need to when your initial strategy turns out not to be a great idea it's sort of funny in retrospect that there were all those cold war bunkers and continuity of government plans and everything was going to be nice and orderly after the bombs dropped, when the government is actually so ineffectual that it can't adequately respond to a crisis when it had a couple of months advance warning and it isn't drifting gently upwards in a plume of radioactive ash and smoke
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Mar 25, 2020 02:27
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XMNN posted:I think one of the worst things about the government response is the complete failure to have a plan b A govt that has grown fat over 10 years with a friendly media without any real crises. They have truly drunk their own kool-aid and believe that no scandal, lie or level of incompetence can have any impact upon themselves. Up until something like this occurs and it is a complete outside context problem for them (it shouldn't be one!) and they have about as much idea about how to handle it as if a UFO touched down on Downing street and a little green person came out looking for Boris.
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Mar 25, 2020 02:34
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[edited]
MrL_JaKiri fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Mar 25, 2020 |
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Mar 25, 2020 02:39
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Guavanaut posted:I've got an idea. Allow them outside as long as they sign an advance care directive saying do not ventilate. Spoiler: they won't get ventilated. At my hospital registrars are already having this conversation with lots of our cancer patients and anyone with severe comorbidities. You catch the Covid, don't expect to go to intensive care. Hell, because of a lack of suitable PPE it's being seriously considered not to even do CPR on anyone with suspected Covid.
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Mar 25, 2020 02:59
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Z the IVth posted:If you are vulnerable (say with extensive immunosuppression), then you get Norwegian scabies, where the mites reproduce uncontrollably and you have literal thousands upon thousands of them crawling about everywhere. What I'm seeing here is that we should kill Norwegians on sight.
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Mar 25, 2020 03:27
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XMNN posted:I think one of the worst things about the government response is the complete failure to have a plan b Even more wild is that most of these contingency discussions could be knocked out in more or less an afternoon, you call a Cabinet meeting and get the relevant civil service bods and specialists in to brief, then you figure out at least the outlines of the backup plan, then you can probably break and be back at Chequers in time for tea. The PM/Cabinet doesn't need to go line-by-line through every employment category in the world, you set out the general objectives and have your Permanent Undersecretaries and so on hash out the details, review the next day. That's the whole point of having a theoretically extremely professional civil service staffed with experienced and qualified career bureaucrats. You don't even have to do most of the work yourself, just set the parameters and have the underlings sort it out. Of course, we are governed by such a credulous, incurious, malign, stupid shower of absolute weapons that as you say it never even occurred to them that they might, perhaps, need a Plan B. After all, everything else in their lives has fallen their way, why wouldn't a global pandemic?
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Mar 25, 2020 04:32
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Thanks for all the answers everyone. I'm not egotistical to believe that I have worked out something that the combined medical brains of the world have missed, I just am desperately trying to get a handle on things in my own mind because not knowing stuff drives me up the wall.
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Mar 25, 2020 08:49
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Guavanaut posted:Initial viral load seems to have a large weighting on later experience among equivalent people, a high initial viral load like in the Birmingham church cases seems to have worse outcomes than from a single exposure. It makes sense if you draw an exponential graph starting with 2^1, 2^2, 2^3, 2^4... and compare it with 3^1, 3^2, 3^3, 3^4... The confusion between viral load / inoculum (or infectious dose) is all over the place and there's also a chain email purporting to be from various consultants promoting it. Super annoying. It's possible that the infectious dose does influence disease severity as that happens with other but not all viruses. But the likelihood of getting a big dose is mostly related to being super close and involved with aerosol generating procedures like intubation - thus medical staff being particularly at risk. There's some interesting articles in this nice BMJ blog including a couple on transmission. https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/03/23/richard-lehmans-covid-19-reviews-23-march-2020/
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Mar 25, 2020 09:13
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Chap at work thinks the government's doing a great loving job in regards to the coronavirus. loving gammon boomers I swear. Managed to annoy him by suggesting that the Tories were basically being forced to do Labour policy (I know I know, but if anyone's dense enough to believe the government's response has been in any way loving adequate or timely, they're certainly not going to know actual labour policy), and did at least get him to shut the gently caress up that Johnson's personal response had been consistant or good by referencing that Johnson said in an interview that he'd been loving shaking hands with patients with coronavirus, among the other contradictory poo poo he's literally said in the last two weeks. Sorry, rant over. Just had to vent.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:13
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Pesky Splinter posted:Chap at work thinks the government's doing a great loving job in regards to the coronavirus. They'll never admit their Daddies hosed this poo poo up, even if the corpses start piling.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:20
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jabby posted:Spoiler: they won't get ventilated.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:32
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Guavanaut posted:They might not go outside if they're forced to sign an affidavit to that effect though, because it'd mean acknowledging that consequences exist. gently caress it, another week or two and I'd happily sign that. I'm only now starting to understand that I'm nowhere near as much of a shut-in as I used to believe, and I'm already bored with every walk within walking distance of my house. Getting the bus/tube to somewhere else for a walk is definitely taking the piss though.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:39
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Unkempt posted:What I'm seeing here is that we should kill Norwegians on sight. Holdup
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Mar 25, 2020 09:44
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Are the normal bins being still being collected?
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Mar 25, 2020 09:46
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goddamnedtwisto posted:gently caress it, another week or two and I'd happily sign that. I'm only now starting to understand that I'm nowhere near as much of a shut-in as I used to believe, and I'm already bored with every walk within walking distance of my house. Getting the bus/tube to somewhere else for a walk is definitely taking the piss though. Give it time and you'll be able to do circuits of the M25 on your motorbike at 100mph.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:46
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OwlFancier posted:Give it time and you'll be able to do circuits of the M25 on your motorbike at 100mph. It's lousy with average speed cameras now 
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Mar 25, 2020 09:49
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jabby posted:Spoiler: they won't get ventilated. Yeah. MERS =/= COVID-19 but a small rétrospective analysis showed 100% mortality in advanced and haematological malignancy https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32196389/ On the other hand patients on my studies have no alternative treatment options and the PIs are pushing to treat.
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Mar 25, 2020 09:53
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