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pmchem posted:lol Cramer just said "there's nothing in this bill that bails out big business", what a crock of poo poo They will not be satisfied until they get an even bigger giveaway than 2009.
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Mar 26, 2020 14:46
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Comrayn posted:They will not be satisfied until they get an even bigger giveaway than 2009. haven't they already also, where can I learn more about these jobless numbers from somebody who knows what they're talking about? who's a good source of info/insight?
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Mar 26, 2020 14:52
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This feels a bit like the bit in the Big Short when the guys who bet against the bonds are running around shouting because the bubble hasn't burst yet
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Mar 26, 2020 14:54
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golden bubble posted:Today has made it abundantly clear. Boomer 401ks are such a strong driver of the stock market that you almost need to watch Fox News just to understand how those types of investors think. If I were 65 years old with a pension and social security coming in, there's no way in hell I would sell my stocks right now. Think about how many had probably bailed out of stocks in the doldrums of 2009 on the expectation that Obama would ruin the country. They won't want to get burned again.
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Mar 26, 2020 14:54
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Tatsuta Age posted:haven't they already That's the problem; the jobless claims go to states directly with state dictated programs that get funded through Federal programs and operate within Federal limits of what's allowable, so if the Feds are loving with the numbers there's not a "better source" available. States were embargoed from releasing their own data last week, and that almost certainly is coming with the force of "censor this info or we'll gently caress with your funding"
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Mar 26, 2020 14:57
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golden bubble posted:Today has made it abundantly clear. Boomer 401ks are such a strong driver of the stock market that you almost need to watch Fox News just to understand how those types of investors think. yup, agreed. I think the big private equity / hedge fund people bought in Monday, and now it's all about pumping to boomers. I'm about willing to give in and say the low has passed, although it makes no rational sense for the majority of workers. They're not the people who profit from the market.
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Mar 26, 2020 14:59
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Ultra low interest rates are probably distorting the market a fair bit too, there’s literally nowhere else to put your money and get any kind of return above inflation. In Australia the market kept rising even though the economy was sluggish at best, there was a big disconnect between the real economy and share prices.
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Mar 26, 2020 14:59
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When do we see official unemployment numbers next?
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Mar 26, 2020 15:00
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Anyone have a preferred tutorial/manual/guide for setting up ToS? This interface is utterly impenetrable
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Mar 26, 2020 15:00
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gay picnic defence posted:I guess they’re all just pricing in Trump curing the virus by Easter I'm on the same boat, but I'm gonna give it a bit more time and look for a more dignified exit than today. And if there isn't one, I'll be that guy that perfectly timed the bottom of the market and just got the direction wrong.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:06
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Today is just going to be one of those days where I take it on the chin. Still going to hold onto my SPY puts, but I'm starting to sweat my PENN puts a bit.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:08
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pmchem posted:lol Cramer just said "there's nothing in this bill that bails out big business", what a crock of poo poo Cramer is like 5% actual knowledge anf 95% bullshit. And he's always been for big business. Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 15:13 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 15:09
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java posted:Today is just going to be one of those days where I take it on the chin. Still going to hold onto my SPY puts, but I'm starting to sweat my PENN puts a bit. Yeah I hate that I see red on my puts but, man, I could not see myself thinking things are going to get better from here on out.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:11
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There’s no way that this isn’t going to come hilariously crashing down in the near future. Things are badly hosed, and the market is denying its fundamentals (i.e. reality). Volatility is coming. Not that I know what I’m talking about...
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Mar 26, 2020 15:19
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Pollyanna posted:There’s no way that this isn’t going to come hilariously crashing down in the near future. Things are badly hosed, and the market is denying its fundamentals (i.e. reality). Volatility is coming. Print enough money inflation happens, stock prices keep going up because each dollar is worth less and less. Number goes up!
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Mar 26, 2020 15:21
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Lost on puts, but agree with the its ok, green is good sentiment.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:22
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jokes posted:Yeah I hate that I see red on my puts but, man, I could not see myself thinking things are going to get better from here on out. Being red on your puts but black on the rest of your account is also ok. I, too, think this is a dangerous pump and game to play given the circumstances. Generational wealth transfer to keep boomers portfolios propped up.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:23
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pixaal posted:Print enough money inflation happens, stock prices keep going up because each dollar is worth less and less. Number goes up! But dollars aren't worth less and less because the rest of the world needs dollar-denominated instruments. Eventually the rest of the world might move to another currency, but right now almost everything is pegged to the dollar.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:23
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ADP numbers come in on April 1. Let's see what it looks like.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:24
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java posted:Today is just going to be one of those days where I take it on the chin. Still going to hold onto my SPY puts, but I'm starting to sweat my PENN puts a bit. jokes posted:Yeah I hate that I see red on my puts but, man, I could not see myself thinking things are going to get better from here on out. This is the boat I'm in. I don't want to recognize the loss in some of my puts (looking at you, SPY and BYD puts  ) and start playing with calls to try and earn that back because I just can't see things getting better - nothing adds up.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:26
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Yeah, knowing now that UVXY is just an ETF and holding it doesn’t gently caress me over to the tune of owing more money if it goes down, I’m more willing to bet on things going to poo poo again soon.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:26
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If you're going to long the VIX you should really wait until market sentiment reverses. Right now it has been trending in the positive since Friday
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Mar 26, 2020 15:28
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Let's poke at my bad and wrong model in the important way. What is the important way? We can look at diagnoses through tests, and deaths attributable to the disease, and extrapolate from both of those for further deaths, because even if the testing rate is bad and wrong, it's underestimating, not overestimating, and the deaths attributable to the disease are underestimating but by a much narrower margin. While there are signs that we're pegging out our testing bandwidth and so it will lag the actual infection more, the deaths attributable won't suffer the same problem. So, deaths is probably a pretty good number, and confirmed cases is a pretty poo poo number. If we look at South Korea, they've been testing aggressively and have a testing regime that is effective in that their deaths per capita are low: 75 with a population of 50M, already surpassing the US's performance. Their mortality rate of confirmed cases is 0.5%. That's 1/3rd the U.S.'s death rate. If we were to assume that actual mortality is roughly equivalent in SK and the US (which is a dubious assumption), then there are 3x the number of infected in the U.S. as we've measured. What can we do with this info? It tells us very little new info about how many people will die. The mortality rate isn't growing exponentially while the disease is spreading exponentially, so it follows the deaths will grow exponentially on a similar curve to the infections. It tells us very little new info about how many people will need hospitalization, same as above. And likewise with medical care saturation. What it does tell us is that our bad data is going to mislead us about when will things flatten out, because people who've been infected are at reduced likelihood to get reinfected, and if the testing number understates how many people have been infected, then we'll reach that critical point sooner than the numbers would suggest. Italy's furthest along of western nations and has been slowing (not stopping), with a full lockdown; which isn't happening in the US. So, we'll probably reach peak infection spread with an anomalously low diagnosed number and an anomalously high mortality rate. But at less than a percent of the population now infected with any correction factor right now, we're just starting.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:31
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Sepist posted:If you're going to long the VIX you should really wait until market sentiment reverses. Right now it has been trending in the positive since Friday Eh gently caress it, sure, I’ll exit. Still made a profit, but a bit less than I’d like. Still don’t like active trading. Think I’m done with that now.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:33
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DIS has already released the schedules for the park workers through April 4th with zero hours on them, but they haven't officially said the parks are going to stay closed longer. They're waiting for a Friday after market close news dump I bet.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:40
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Been short on VXX since 85 vix. Still short. Can't believe people were going long vix at above 70. Absolute madness. I was someone who held VXX for 5 months but I would never hold/long vol at these prices ever. Only thing is to hedge yourself.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:41
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BA is doubling in 6 days 
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Mar 26, 2020 15:44
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Moatman posted:Anyone have a preferred tutorial/manual/guide for setting up ToS? This interface is utterly impenetrable I'd be interested in this, too. I am a newbie at using it and any tips / actually updated and useful guide links would be great.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:44
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Going long vix when its 60+ is like shorting it at 10, its a hard tell that you dont understand what youre doing. Dont do that
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Mar 26, 2020 15:48
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greasyhands posted:Going long vix when its 60+ is like shorting it at 10, its a hard tell that you dont understand what youre doing. Dont do that I bought at 49, sold at 60.80  Good enough. Active trading isn’t for me.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:56
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Bought more puts! Irrational exuberance.
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Mar 26, 2020 15:58
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Pollyanna posted:I bought at 49, sold at 60.80 And yet, here you are still! s t a r t t r a d i n g f u t u r e s
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Mar 26, 2020 15:58
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whoever called 11:00 for people to digest the numbers might have been right been trending down for about 15 minutes. Could just be a dip.
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Mar 26, 2020 16:00
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Futures are fun if you hate stable blood pressure and want to scare your animals with loud screaming. Sometimes you open a position and you'd swear the market is actively trying to hunt your stop loss
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Mar 26, 2020 16:00
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Tons of cash coming off the sidelines. dollar index: down gold: up treasuries (value not yield): up equities: up
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Mar 26, 2020 16:01
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If you were short and whining right now, grow a loving pair. You were warned that pensions will be buying. You were warned that liquidity will improve somewhat. It has nothing to do with Fox News, or people ignoring fundamentals. EDIT: And just so we are clear, I'm not pretending to be above it or something. I started shorting this week and its clear I moved too fast. A couple of more bullets in the chamber.
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Mar 26, 2020 16:02
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FWIW I've got a lot of years piloting ToS under my belt, I've never found a comprehensive "Here's how to do everything you want to do" tutorial. Things that are somewhat useful: /r/thinkorswim, which is about the tool almost exclusively often has useful tips. It won't acclimate you. tastytrade, before they released Tastyworks, focused on Thinkorswim because they built Thinkorswim before selling it to TDA Googling how to do one thing can help a bunch. Now, none of these are "babby's first TOS" so what should you understand to start with? I'd focus my attention on Activity and Positions in the Monitor tab, Charts/Charts with a layout that shows you something useful, and Trade/All Products Get a handle for pulling up a quote in Trade/All Products, executing a trade at a limit, and that trade getting filled and populating Monitor/Activity and Positions. This is fundamental. Start with equities, and less expensive ones at that. People talk about SPY here a lot because it's very liquid and has a very liquid options market. If you're trying to figure out ToS don't try and figure out how to options on top. Two symbols you can buy and sell and probably not gently caress up too badly: KNG traces the S&P 500 index with good fidelity and pays a better dividend. It's getting this higher dividend by making option plays, so there's higher expense ratios on it, and you have more risk than SPY. If you're trying to play with ToS you are going to be embracing more risk. If you're starting out, trading something that costs ~1/10th the price / share can help you get your bearings. SPTM is the "total market" fund that SSGA also administers. SSGA administers SPY which everyone is always blabbering about. It's also way lower price/share than SPY. Figuring out how to drive Thinkorswim won't fix your judgment or give you good reactions, that's on you. edit: Just to be clear, you will not make money by putting it in SPTM or KNG right now over the span of months. These are not amazing instruments that will give you some kind of amazing success. I am mentioning the two by name because they are broadly correlated to the market at large, you probably won't suffer a total loss on either, and they both pay a dividend so you can see some new cash to play with as you're figuring things out. Dwight Eisenhower fucked around with this message at 16:13 on Mar 26, 2020 |
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Mar 26, 2020 16:06
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fougera posted:You were warned that pensions will be buying. You were warned that liquidity will improve somewhat. It has nothing to do with Fox News, or people ignoring fundamentals. How do we know for a fact that this is the case?
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Mar 26, 2020 16:23
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My wife’s employer just extended WFH to April 30. Still up 3% today, and my puts are holding up surprisingly well. I went for late April/mid-May and reasonable strike prices. Still holding. If the initial economic doom is priced in, we’ll see what happens when it becomes apparent that a return to normalcy will not be happening by Easter.
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Mar 26, 2020 16:27
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People will always be buying, people like to pretend things were obvious during short-term pumps/dumps and then mysteriously disappear when it's reversed. Not here, necessarily, but just places in general-- especially WSB. Frankly, like I said, playing unemployment numbers is a gamble on its own and, like earnings, they are anything but certain on their effect on prices. The certain effect is that a lot of people and industries are gonna get hosed over because of all the unemployed people. Whether or not that hits the market today or in the future is unknown. Also, most stock valuations are highly speculative and (still) ridiculously crazy-high.
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Mar 26, 2020 16:29
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