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waah posted:So market up 9% tomorrow? make it 12% up, Monday double breaker. (I'm joking, but this is hell world so maybe it will happen)
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Mar 27, 2020 03:12
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:Rolling with the punches is so hard to do when it doesn't make any sense. I appreciate hearing this strategy. I'm starting to think that my 5/15 puts may not be long enough out. If we get some movement downwards tomorrow, I think I may try to consolidate some of my plays in puts a bit further out. Wondering if you wouldn't mind elaborating on the dates and strikes you are thinking about for puts and calls here? You mentioned weeklies for calls, but how far OTM are you looking?
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Mar 27, 2020 03:45
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https://twitter.com/lenkiefer/status/1243166718924554240?s=20
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Mar 27, 2020 03:51
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so what
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Mar 27, 2020 04:28
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Kinda illustrates the breakdown of standard deviation for rare but catastrophic events. Isn't the probability of a 30 sigma event like less likely than going and winning the powerball twice in a row?
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Mar 27, 2020 05:02
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The ASX has fallen a bit today which has given me a bit of confidence that there's still some gloom out there. edit - in the time it took to type this it's just fallen another .7% 
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Mar 27, 2020 05:53
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Lote posted:Kinda illustrates the breakdown of standard deviation for rare but catastrophic events. Isn't the probability of a 30 sigma event like less likely than going and winning the powerball twice in a row? I only have a basic elective-in-undergrad level understanding of stats but isn't the 30sigma the probability of the event when exposed to the same conditions as what preceded it without factoring in the emergent events? e: Like we wouldn't have the data to understand the probability of this reaction given the known events.
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Mar 27, 2020 06:55
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Some additional corona talk to chew on that might indicate the need for quarantine may be relatively short: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/health/wuhan-coronavirus-deaths.html
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Mar 27, 2020 07:05
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Lote posted:Kinda illustrates the breakdown of standard deviation for rare but catastrophic events. Isn't the probability of a 30 sigma event like less likely than going and winning the powerball twice in a row? If you assume a normal distribution yes. In reality this has been inevitable. The global financial system has been so pumped up by every central bank that it just needed an event to trigger the collapse.
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Mar 27, 2020 07:10
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hobbez posted:Some additional corona talk to chew on that might indicate the need for quarantine may be relatively short: Certainly anyone believing China's statistics is a fool. You need to infer reality from other statistics, which is traditionally done for China. Such as the mysterious reduction of cell phone users in China. Twenty one million cell phone users. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7qxMBqRNZs
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Mar 27, 2020 07:14
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You're implying that China lost/culled 21 million citizens because of Covid?
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Mar 27, 2020 07:32
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We have a seperate thread for all your bad takes on disease statistics. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3917292&userid=0&perpage=40&pagenumber=2
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Mar 27, 2020 09:19
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UK/Euro markets have woken up on the wrong side of the bed, maybe US ones will too
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Mar 27, 2020 09:35
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What is the likelihood yesterday in the US in heavily influenced by that pension fund rebalancing and a bunch of people saw number was up and piled in as well?
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Mar 27, 2020 10:36
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gay picnic defence posted:What is the likelihood yesterday in the US in heavily influenced by that pension fund rebalancing and a bunch of people saw number was up and piled in as well? I know I did; been mentally preparing to lose all my money most of yesterday. By the look of futures, that will happen.
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Mar 27, 2020 10:48
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Devian666 posted:Certainly anyone believing China's statistics is a fool. You need to infer reality from other statistics, which is traditionally done for China. Such as the mysterious reduction of cell phone users in China. Twenty one million cell phone users. Stop posting dumb fake news, it's embarrassing.
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Mar 27, 2020 13:09
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-idUSKBN21E13T if today is red, perhaps a good opportunity to get in on XOM and CVX before an oil deal is struck?
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Mar 27, 2020 14:14
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uso taking it on the chin again.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:18
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pmchem posted:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-idUSKBN21E13T Maybe, but even with a supply fix there's still a demand shock to work through. Also it looks like that last second SPY gain yesterday will be completely undone at open.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:21
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following up on my own oil post, who knows: https://twitter.com/fxmacro/status/1243528233703944193?s=20 but I am slightly bullish on XOM/CVX as compared to SPY on a 1-year timeframe, in general
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Mar 27, 2020 14:24
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pmchem posted:following up on my own oil post, who knows: $10 oil would put $UCO under a dollar - if that happens I'll pick up a fistful of it and hold for a year or so until price stabilizes.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:27
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lol
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Mar 27, 2020 14:30
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java posted:I appreciate hearing this strategy. I'm starting to think that my 5/15 puts may not be long enough out. If we get some movement downwards tomorrow, I think I may try to consolidate some of my plays in puts a bit further out. I'm holding 200 SPY 5/15 puts. There are 49 days to expiry on those puts. The infected count has been doubling less than every 48 hours, and there are ~85,000 people currently infected. 85000 * 2 ^ 24 = 1426063360000. All the information about spread will be out by May. Longer term secondary effects will take longer to shake out, but I think we've got one more big shock where the people who aren't taking it seriously, take it seriously. I don't know when that happens, and so I think in the near term, we'll see people bidding up the market. Having given it time to bubble around in my poorly equipped brain, I think it'd be foolish to hold anything bullish over the weekend. So in terms of material plans: Today I'm looking for a support level which hasn't shown its face yet. If we see that, I'm looking at rolling the dice on some 0 DTE calls with ~.40 delta, and immediately following up with an order to exit at +20%. Next Monday if the mania continues I'll be looking at Apr 3 and probably near the money calls, maybe 3-5 points of SPY OTM. I'll be rolling out aggressively and keeping the amount in play low, and taking what I can get off and plowing it into puts which should be getting cheaper as the mania proceeds. Goal is to be closed out on Thursday, sit on the sidelines Friday, and if it continues on the week of Apr 6 repeat the play. Emphasis is on pulling cash out eagerly and often, because when things turn sour they're gonna turn sour fast.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:31
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$CACC going down long term, Citron Research says. I've got 2 $210p expiring 4/17. Looking to get 1 250p 5/15. https://citronresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Credit-Acceptance-Corp-The-Black-Swan-Event.pdf
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Mar 27, 2020 14:34
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I'm holding 200 SPY 5/15 puts. There are 49 days to expiry on those puts. The infected count has been doubling less than every 48 hours, and there are ~85,000 people currently infected. 85000 * 2 ^ 24 = 1426063360000. In 3/27 258 calls @ 1.65, limit order opened to sell at 1.98
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Mar 27, 2020 14:41
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Closed my SPY puts for ~500USD profit, feels good. Will rebuy next pump.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:48
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I want off DIS's wild ride.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:53
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Hah, UVXY spikes after I sell it. Just cements how timing the market is pointless. Maybe I’ll bookmark the cash in my brokerage account for next year’s IRA.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:53
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Got an email this morning that we'll be teleworking through at least May 1. Easter is April 12.
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Mar 27, 2020 14:54
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Pollyanna posted:Hah, UVXY spikes after I sell it. Just cements how timing the market is pointless. Maybe I’ll bookmark the cash in my brokerage account for next year’s IRA. good to know thanks
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Mar 27, 2020 15:00
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AtomicSX posted:I want off DIS's wild ride. Out of my DIS puts that I picked up yesterday for 60%. Christ what a market.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:00
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AtomicSX posted:I want off DIS's wild ride. Did you buy calls or something? We've still got a ways to go down if you've bought puts. Florida is one of the least prepared states in the nation, and coronavirus is really starting to take off down here and in other republican run states like LA. Communist Q fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Mar 27, 2020 |
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Mar 27, 2020 15:07
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UnfurledSails posted:good to know thanks lol market looks weird now... all the easy super bounce money looks like its gone. glad I sold off long equities  oil can go lower too so not adding to that yet... will be looking to get into some individual oil stocks if there's some more quick moves downward at least 20 test oil. not re-entereing APA just yet... weird market atm... GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!
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Mar 27, 2020 15:08
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Communist Q posted:Did you buy calls or something? We've still got a ways to go down if you've bought puts. I have 5/15 75p puts that are now down 25% as of now, hoping to close out in the next week.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:11
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Communist Q posted:Did you buy calls or something? We've still got a ways to go down if you've bought puts. Having been on the DIS put train for two weeks with only a few moderately nice exits in sight over that time, I don't begrudge anyone not having the stomach to ride this one out.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:12
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Cruise companies poo poo out of luck because, you know, they aren't really american companies. At least Congress got something right.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:13
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AtomicSX posted:I have 5/15 75p puts that are now down 25% as of now, hoping to close out in the next week. I wouldn't stress it. There's not going to be any good news coming out of Florida or any of the other southern red states for a while. We are absolutely not prepared for the coronavirus in Florida. Disney world or any of the parks will not be reopening any time soon. Disclosure: I work in the medical field in the state. Edit: That said, Trump will likely respond to the coronavirus faster in Florida than say NY or CA, but it's going to get really bad as it spreads throughout the state. Communist Q fucked around with this message at 15:19 on Mar 27, 2020 |
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Mar 27, 2020 15:14
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Communist Q posted:I wouldn't stress it. There's not going to be any good news coming out of Florida or any of the other southern red states for a while. We are absolutely not prepared for the coronavirus in Florida. Disney world or any of the parks will not be reopening any time soon. Disclosure: I work in the medical field in the state. Yeah I'm not too worried about at least breaking even in the next week or so, this roller coaster is very strange given there's been minimal good or bad news warranting these up or down moves in the last week as far as I can tell.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:23
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Josh Lyman posted:Got an email this morning that we'll be teleworking through at least May 1. My agency in the Dept of Commerce is canceling travel through mid May.
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Mar 27, 2020 15:29
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