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3.3m caused the market to go up last week. Futures are currently up 1.5% and I think we go up with anything less than 6m aka doubled.
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Apr 2, 2020 07:04
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I'll go with 14m. All hope is lost.
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Apr 2, 2020 07:39
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Anton Chigurh posted:I'll go with 14m. All hope is lost. Even if it was 14M, there's no way they'd put those numbers out.
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Apr 2, 2020 07:55
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4.5m, not because that's how many actually lost their job but because that all that could be processed. SPY to close 2.8% higher on the back of this news.
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Apr 2, 2020 08:00
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I just applied for unemployment with my state office today, due to a layoff that was probably not related to the beer virus, but who can say for sure? My last day of employment was March 31 and I tried several times from about midnight to 3 AM to log in to the site yesterday without success, so if that's any measure of how bad the unemployment numbers will be, just in Texas, add that to the list.
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Apr 2, 2020 09:15
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3.8 million, just because none of the larger states can keep up with the sheer numbers. That fact won't be absorbed by Wall Street, and it'll instead be interpreted as things not being as bad. That notion will be dispelled as claims continue to go up sharply all the way into May.
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Apr 2, 2020 09:23
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loving clown https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1245484478564388867?s=21
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Apr 2, 2020 09:51
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5m is a nice round number. My buys are all up in the after/pre market which makes no sense at all
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Apr 2, 2020 09:51
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I kinda want to change my guess to 3.6 million. Not great. Not terrible.
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Apr 2, 2020 12:59
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ZM currently has a market cap of $38b via https://fknol.com/list/market-cap-sp-500-index-companies.php, that is larger than: General Dynamics Raytheon FedEx Hormel Foods Du Pont Kroger eBay Dow Chemical Citrix Akamai I can't think of a good reason not to buy puts on that company, they are roundly hated in the hacker world, e.g. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22756730
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Apr 2, 2020 13:05
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oil finally
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Apr 2, 2020 13:27
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3 million &  e. 6.6 million! Hit Man fucked around with this message at 13:32 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 13:29
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https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf 5.8M lmao
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Apr 2, 2020 13:32
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Is this processed jobless claims? The number surely is bigger than 6.6
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Apr 2, 2020 13:32
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I have had such difficulty with the state unemployment website working correctly, you can bet it is a lot higher.
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Apr 2, 2020 13:34
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https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1245690256147480576?s=20 details https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
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Apr 2, 2020 13:34
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And yet still a massive undercount.
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Apr 2, 2020 13:37
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Still looking at a higher open. Time to sell the rally?
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Apr 2, 2020 13:37
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I'm not even surprised, I was expecting >5M for sure. The reaction in /ES to the news is way more than I expected
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Apr 2, 2020 13:41
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Where's the easiest place to check US futures? https://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/ shows as being 30 minutes old rn VVVVVVVVVV thanks!!!!!! chinigz fucked around with this message at 13:46 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 13:43
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I usually just look at investing.com https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures
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Apr 2, 2020 13:44
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6.6m feels low.
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Apr 2, 2020 13:54
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pmchem posted:I'm not even surprised, I was expecting >5M for sure. The reaction in /ES to the news is way more than I expected Holy crap  Pollyanna posted:6.6m feels low. Moatman fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 13:55
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2% of people working in 2019 have successfully filed unemployment claims with overwhelmed systems. And that's worth a 30 point drop in the S&P pre market. lol.
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Apr 2, 2020 13:58
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The market is finally waking up. And unemployment is also terrible for capturing data on contracted work, who knows how badly that is faring right now.
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Apr 2, 2020 13:59
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very anecdotally my MIL is filing for unemployment in Ohio, began the process early last week, and still hasn't had her claim processed by the state. that number is almost certainly understated because [the number of people filing exceeds capacity to process.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:02
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/luckin-coffee-stock-plummets-after-investigation-finds-coo-fabricated-sales.htmlquote:Shares of China’s Luckin Coffee plummet 80% after investigation finds COO fabricated sales Oof, I am happy to be nowhere near this.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:03
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God drat 80%. Rip
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Apr 2, 2020 14:05
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LLCoolJD posted:https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/02/luckin-coffee-stock-plummets-after-investigation-finds-coo-fabricated-sales.html https://twitter.com/Stocktwits/status/1245695199973523459
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Apr 2, 2020 14:06
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Elsewhere... https://twitter.com/citronresearch/status/1223302786747527169?s=21
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Apr 2, 2020 14:06
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Macy's closed at 4.43 yesterday, and this morning Fitch cut their credit rating to junk. If Macy's doesn't survive this, I can't really say I'd be shocked but it would be a huge deal.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:09
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I might be a day late on both my ZM and CVX/XOM plans, given premarket moves, actions getting pricier
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Apr 2, 2020 14:28
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Rip to anyone who bought weekly calls yesterday
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Apr 2, 2020 14:28
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I had a page or so debate about Chinese companies a few years ago in this thread... Avoid avoid avoid. I lost a good chunk on "china medical" when they transferred all worthwhile assets to another company the CEO owned, and left me with shares in a warehouse.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:29
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saintonan posted:Macy's closed at 4.43 yesterday, and this morning Fitch cut their credit rating to junk. If Macy's doesn't survive this, I can't really say I'd be shocked but it would be a huge deal. It was also removed from the S&P 500 yesterday, which means trading volume is going to PLUMMET. Being part of an index creates lots of volume and liquidity, funds that replicate the index buy and sell shares of underlying stocks as fund units are created and redeemed, and as stock prices change to maintain proper ratios. All of that is now gone.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:30
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6.6m unemployed and the market opens at relatively the same and even up a bit from futures. What a weird world.
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Apr 2, 2020 14:32
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Gotta say that's a lot more up volume than I expected at open. Is that really going to retrace the entire premarket move?
saintonan fucked around with this message at 14:35 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 14:33
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ZM puts are zooming. e: weird, my TD app said the trade failed, but hoped on my desktop and I see my 10 options for ZM Apr 17 90p there. Already +20% on it lol, that one's got room to run. SirPablo fucked around with this message at 14:41 on Apr 2, 2020 |
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Apr 2, 2020 14:37
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Put in some 2450p when we hit 2470, feels like fake news
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Apr 2, 2020 14:41
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Stocks aren't tanking right now because everybody is covering their shorts. Maybe your doom and gloom outlook isn't that original. Edit: And if you agree, consider shorting more??
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Apr 2, 2020 14:41
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