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A Buttery Pastry posted:It's based on Sweden not having a lot of luck treating its patients. Norway is doing fine, while Denmark is in the middle of the other two. Obviously Sweden might've just been unlucky with its first patients, in which case the prognosis improves. More number fiddling. According to the very recent The Lancet paper based on chinese data that I posted earlier the total amount of swedes in need of hospital care will be 6,17% of the population. This comes from using current population age distribution data from SCB and using the somewhat dumb assumptions that 100% of the population gets it, that there are no reinfections and that our hospital capacity does not become more overburdoned than chinas was etc. In total this amounts to 647547 people in need of hospital care in Sweden. The paper state a reported death rate per infection of 0.66%, which is pretty consistent with the South Korean data mentioned above. That would amount to a total death toll of 69268 swedes. Zudgemud posted:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext
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Apr 2, 2020 20:29
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Zudgemud posted:More number fiddling. Using South Korea as a model in particular seems like a stretch, given that it has had a far more forceful response, has a culture of using masks to prevent infection, and has established proper epidemic protocols from back when the original SARS was going around.
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Apr 2, 2020 20:55
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A Buttery Pastry posted:The death rate you're going with here seems to be under the assumption that the health care system keeps on trucking undisturbed, which seems unlikely in an "everyone gets infected scenario". As mentioned earlier, far worse case fatality rates have been observed in places where the health care system is brought to its knees. Obviously there are infections which never result in the infected setting foot in a hospital, but for the 0.66% rate to hold in Wuhan would mean that there'd be eight infected who never were became cases for every confirmed case. As far as I recall the 0.66% death rate calculation is based fully on chinese data, along with their testing strategy and estimations of the infected asymptomatic population based on observable non official data such as asymptomatic carriers detected in flights from China. So it should include both the "no more vents"-phase at the peak and the less severe slopes.
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Apr 2, 2020 21:21
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PederP posted:This is a very dumb calculation. It's rather ironic to have CEPOS ignore the effects of the invisible hand in the economic downturn, and attributing to the government an ability to shutdown and revive the economy at-will. Yeah, reopening schools, cinemas, bars and hairdressers will bring back lost exports, convince companies across all sectors that they need to rehire everyone they fired, instill faith in consumers and reignite their spending habits, tourism will boom once more and noone will be worried about the risk of infection and stay the f... at home. these organisations don't really care much about the free market, they care about protecting the interests of rich people
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Apr 2, 2020 21:33
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A Buttery Pastry posted:Sorry, put out was the wrong word. They haven't actually released them, just presented them at a conference. The Imperial College report is easy to find though, and covers the entire world. What conference? The current numbers I can find is 100-240k in the USA. That's from Trump's government so it might be bullshit, but try as I might I've failed to find any source for a higher number.
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Apr 2, 2020 22:26
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A Buttery Pastry posted:That sounds like a lot of work dude. I've presented my assumptions, people can take or leave the conclusions. I'm just presenting an alternative scenario to the rosy picture painted by authorities and saying things might get worse than they assume. I mean, it's not like the last few decades have given people much reason to trust the establishment to not just pretend everything is fine to protect number or to at least massively downplay an issue. See climate change, the Euro.  A Buttery Pastry posted:Alright, hadn't considered the false positives issue. I believe China has a three-tiered approach to confirming positives though, which should cut down on the number of false positives?
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Apr 2, 2020 22:27
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A Buttery Pastry posted:I'm just presenting an alternative scenario to the rosy picture painted by authorities and saying things might get worse than they assume. I mean, it's not like the last few decades have given people much reason to trust the establishment to not just pretend everything is fine to protect number or to at least massively downplay an issue. See climate change, the Euro.
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Apr 2, 2020 22:57
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"Superior Swedish culture! Common sense!! Personal responsibility!!!", I continue to insist as I'm slowly being wheeled out on a stretcher from the local grocery store after collapsing in front of the penny candy counter. "What about the economy?!" "How will we pay for it?!!"", I continue to insist as I'm slowly being intubated by a nurse wearing a trash bag and a hockey helmet with visor as PPE. "It can't happen here! It's not normal!!", I continue to insist as I slowly load the body bags into a truck for transport to a local ice hockey rink.
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Apr 2, 2020 23:55
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who needs rights when your daddy the state simply could dominate you into not becoming sick ever again
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Apr 3, 2020 01:15
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Lol, gently caress off. Trying to mitigate an epidemic is pretty much the definition of responsible use of state power. It's a real low bar for any community to meet.
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Apr 3, 2020 01:39
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Potrzebie posted:What conference? The current numbers I can find is 100-240k in the USA. That's from Trump's government so it might be bullshit, but try as I might I've failed to find any source for a higher number. 100-200k in the US is from the CDC model, and is based on them exceeding expectations on mitigation measures. The worst case scenario is 2.2 million. Well. That’s not actually the worst case, that’s the ‘if we do nothing’ number. If something happens that actively makes the contagion or hospital capacity worse, I guess it could increase. NYT has a story about it here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html#link-a737c70
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Apr 3, 2020 02:01
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Moving the conversation onwards somewhat https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/50gpkO/paret-adelsohn-flyr-stockholm--flyttar-till-landet
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Apr 3, 2020 02:10
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thotsky posted:Lol, gently caress off. Trying to mitigate an epidemic is pretty much the definition of responsible use of state power. It's a real low bar for any community to meet. We use cops to enforce property rights and prevent drug use, but when a hundred thousand lives is at stake it's time to use the honor system. That's liberalism.
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Apr 3, 2020 05:23
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Mercrom posted:We use cops to enforce property rights and prevent drug use, but when a hundred thousand lives is at stake it's time to use the honor system. That's liberalism. Unless you want the police to start drafting rent-a-cops en-mass or the military to start patrolling the streets any strict quarantine is going to be difficult to enforce. We don't have the men and we certainly don't have the prisons to back it up. Even a strict quarantine relies on honor to function in practice as we're seeing all across Europe. You can mitigate with cops and fines, but most of us (lol Hungary and Poland) aren't China by the end of the day. Switching over to full police-surveilance-state (which many european contries definitely are sprinting towards) will — even if intended — take some time. Then there's also that tiny teensy matter of strict quarantine still not being a proven way out of this.
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Apr 3, 2020 05:34
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D. Ebdrup posted:Their downplaying isn't outweighed by your overplaying it, though D. Ebdrup posted:Only thing they tested for, as far as I've heard, was fever. 1. Test for fever 2. Test for the virus 3. Chest scans Obviously there's a period where someone with some other type of fever might come into close contact with contagious people, but AFAIK it's not fever --> Go straight to quarantine with 100% infected people. They've apparently also switched 2 and 3 around when testing kits for the virus were unavailable. thotsky posted:Lol, gently caress off. Trying to mitigate an epidemic is pretty much the definition of responsible use of state power. It's a real low bar for any community to meet.
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Apr 3, 2020 05:51
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MiddleOne posted:Unless you want the police to start drafting rent-a-cops en-mass or the military to start patrolling the streets any strict quarantine is going to be difficult to enforce. We don't have the men and we certainly don't have the prisons to back it up. Even a strict quarantine relies on honor to function in practice as we're seeing all across Europe. You can mitigate with cops and fines, but most of us (lol Hungary and Poland) aren't China by the end of the day. Switching over to full police-surveilance-state (which many european contries definitely are sprinting towards) will — even if intended — take some time. Pretty much this. A lot of the things that South Korea done is not really possible in a Western society. One should keep in mind that South Korea was a military dictatorship ~40 years ago and has a aggressive northern neighbour, which has its effect on society. For a country like Sweden that has issues filling up the number of cops and had to reintroduce conscription in order to have semi-functioning military, patrolling the streets is not going to happen. Unless they start paying Securitas to do it off course. On the other hand, if this leads to co-running governmental databases, the step to full surveillance state is actually not that far.
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Apr 3, 2020 06:33
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Cardiac posted:On the other hand, if this leads to co-running governmental databases, the step to full surveillance state is actually not that far. FHM is allegedly already working on coordinating it to which my instinctual response is 
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Apr 3, 2020 06:42
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https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/labb-kan-fordubbla-coronatestningen Thank my wife if you're alive a few weeks from now. We would 100% not have this if not for her.
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Apr 3, 2020 06:54
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V. Illych L. posted:these organisations don't really care much about the free market, they care about protecting the interests of rich people The thing is that they seem unable to grasp that a lot of the people who would get infected and die if we just reopened everything, would number a lot of people who contribute greatly to the economy, not just a bunch of "useless eaters". COVID-19 is indiscriminate. Opening up too early would boost the economy temporarily, and then it would crash even harder as a larger proportion of the population starts dying off. KozmoNaut fucked around with this message at 07:13 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 07:11
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MiddleOne posted:Unless you want the police to start drafting rent-a-cops en-mass or the military to start patrolling the streets any strict quarantine is going to be difficult to enforce. We don't have the men and we certainly don't have the prisons to back it up. Even a strict quarantine relies on honor to function in practice as we're seeing all across Europe. You can mitigate with cops and fines, but most of us (lol Hungary and Poland) aren't China by the end of the day. Switching over to full police-surveilance-state (which many european contries definitely are sprinting towards) will — even if intended — take some time. I think it would help if people could threaten to call the police on party goers or whatever and feel justified in doing so. MiddleOne posted:Then there's also that tiny teensy matter of strict quarantine still not being a proven way out of this. lol
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Apr 3, 2020 07:14
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KozmoNaut posted:Opening up too early would boost the economy temporarily, and then it would crash even harder as a larger proportion of the population starts dying off. Alot of these people are pretty much completely blind to anything but short term economic gains.
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Apr 3, 2020 07:21
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MiddleOne posted:Unless you want the police to start drafting rent-a-cops en-mass or the military to start patrolling the streets any strict quarantine is going to be difficult to enforce. We don't have the men and we certainly don't have the prisons to back it up. Even a strict quarantine relies on honor to function in practice as we're seeing all across Europe. You can mitigate with cops and fines, but most of us (lol Hungary and Poland) aren't China by the end of the day. Switching over to full police-surveilance-state (which many european contries definitely are sprinting towards) will — even if intended — take some time.
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Apr 3, 2020 07:41
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Revelation 2-13 posted:100-200k in the US is from the CDC model, and is based on them exceeding expectations on mitigation measures. The worst case scenario is 2.2 million. Well. That’s not actually the worst case, that’s the ‘if we do nothing’ number. If something happens that actively makes the contagion or hospital capacity worse, I guess it could increase. NYT has a story about it here: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/world/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html#link-a737c70 So the 2.2 million number is straight from Donald 'Brain Worms' Trump? Well he is a big wet boy so I guess he knows what he's talking about.
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Apr 3, 2020 07:48
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Real moist fellow, that one.
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Apr 3, 2020 08:05
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Potrzebie posted:So the 2.2 million number is straight from Donald 'Brain Worms' Trump? Well he is a big wet boy so I guess he knows what he's talking about. 2.2 million is 0.7% of US population. Translated to Sweden, this means ~70k dead. Which is pretty much the same number as Zudgemud wrote.
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Apr 3, 2020 08:26
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Potrzebie posted:So the 2.2 million number is straight from Donald 'Brain Worms' Trump? Well he is a big wet boy so I guess he knows what he's talking about. Not, it’s from the exceedingly competent Fauci (apparently one of the last competent people in the whole administration), who has been in charge of the national institute of infectious diseases for bordering on 40 years and under 5 presidents. He was in charge of responses to Ebola, HIV (once allowed), SARS and swine-flu. The models they use are made by groups of researchers obviously. Him and another doctor apparently managed to convinced mango mussolini that corona was serious business, and that’s why he went from “it’s a hoax” to “oh poo poo-gently caress my re-election! I’m boned”.
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Apr 3, 2020 08:50
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Cardiac posted:Pretty much this. + world's biggest biotech industry, SARS response and mobilization just a decade ago and their covid numbers today are mostly the result of a massive outbreak within an insular cult. ROK is something of on outlier, they're massively more prepared for something like this than any other country apart from Singapore and Hong Kong.
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Apr 3, 2020 09:17
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Looks like i'm working from home for all of april, aww ye free money baby
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Apr 3, 2020 09:21
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D. Ebdrup posted:Considering France has somehow already handed out almost half a million fines for breaking lockdown, I don't think we could manage much better per capita. France has been in full police-state mode for literally years.
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Apr 3, 2020 09:23
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Revelation 2-13 posted:Not, it’s from the exceedingly competent Fauci (apparently one of the last competent people in the whole administration), who has been in charge of the national institute of infectious diseases for bordering on 40 years and under 5 presidents. He was in charge of responses to Ebola, HIV (once allowed), SARS and swine-flu. The models they use are made by groups of researchers obviously. Him and another doctor apparently managed to convinced mango mussolini that corona was serious business, and that’s why he went from “it’s a hoax” to “oh poo poo-gently caress my re-election! I’m boned”. Color me surprised. I did not think mr. Big Boy could listen to that kind of person and take in anything said as truth. Cardiac posted:2.2 million is 0.7% of US population. Goddamnit. Number to big for my corona smooth brain. Yeah, 0.7% is not unexpected. In one of the fattest countries on Earth it might even be optimistic seeing as obesity and hypertension are two of the major comorbidities for corona. Potrzebie fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 09:24
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Potrzebie posted:Color me surprised. I did not think mr. Big Boy could listen to that kind of person and take in anything said as truth. Don't worry, he quickly got told by his fellow neo-lib parasites that number must go up and has now changed his mind about taking it seriously.
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Apr 3, 2020 09:27
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Mercrom posted:It's not like cops catch every criminal. Just spreading the belief that that what is illegal is immoral and that crime doesn't pay is enough. The law is propaganda. Propaganda is propaganda. Both the government and FHM are signaling in all channels available for people to be afraid and change behavior. The almost complete death of the hospitality industry is proof that it has been very effective at that task so far. Yes. those last bits (the parties as you title them) are an eyesore. But as we're seeing with Skistars Easter shutdown even those can be budged given enough naming and shaming. All this so far without enacting an inflexible, costly and manpower-enforced utter shutdown of society.
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Apr 3, 2020 09:36
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KozmoNaut posted:The thing is that they seem unable to grasp that a lot of the people who would get infected and die if we just reopened everything, would number a lot of people who contribute greatly to the economy, not just a bunch of "useless eaters". COVID-19 is indiscriminate. I'm not at all sure the economy would see anything but a tiny boost - consumer spending is not going to increase, office worker productivity may increase marginally from working at the office and not at home with the kids, restaurants/cinemas/hairdressers/etc would reopen but likely to unsustainably low customer influx. Working against this would be increased uncertainty and fear - well known to reduce consumer spending. It's a delusion to think we can accomplish anything by reopening before the pandemic is tapering off. What could make a real difference would be to increase infrastructure investments - which has been done already to some degree in Denmark, but not with state subsidies. Renovate schools and public institutions while they are empty, increase maintenance of roads, sewers, energy infrastructure, etc. Build windmills and solar panels. Order new gizmos and machines for public facilities. Speaking as someone who think Keynes is often used as excuse for populist fiscal policy, and generally not fond of interventionist economic policy - right now is a perfect time for Keynesian intervention. Reopening in the hope that consumer spending will reignite the economy is wishful thinking. Export markets and tourism certainly won't save us. There was never a better time for public spending as the main driver of the economy. Sell more government bonds while interest rates are low. War bonds was a thing once - let's have corona bonds for the people, and make sure the interest paid by the state on the money for these investments go back into the pockets of population. The average Dane has something like 200.000 kroner in cash or highly liquid equities. That money can be used for public investment to keep the economy alive during the pandemic, and with a decent interest to pay back people for their help. Various domestic pension funds (arbejdsmarkedspensioner, ATP, etc.) could be included in such an undertaking. PederP fucked around with this message at 12:00 on Apr 3, 2020 |
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Apr 3, 2020 11:57
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KozmoNaut posted:The thing is that they seem unable to grasp that a lot of the people who would get infected and die if we just reopened everything, would number a lot of people who contribute greatly to the economy, not just a bunch of "useless eaters". COVID-19 is indiscriminate. They adjusted the estimated remaining years of lives saved for "quality", in the study. "But grandpa would want to have died! Now to mine his corpse for constituent minerals..."
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Apr 3, 2020 12:28
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adjusting for quality of life is fairly common and to an extent reasonable the really big issue with reports like this is that they assume that we've got a sound model of the sort of damage their policy would inflict on society, and we really don't. it's capitalist positivism
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Apr 3, 2020 12:53
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I'm seriously angry at all the Danes talking about how schools and high schools are going to reopen after Easter. Are they insane? Even if our numbers look under control right now, I do not want my son with asthma and scarred lungs back in school. I do not want him infecting his chronically ill mother (my wife). "Oh, but we need a higher infection rate to build herd immunity", they say. gently caress this. I understand the government and authorities wanting to give people hope and avoid panic, but right now they're causing massive complacency and relentless pressure to reopen, by describing the situation as under control and in no risk of reaching our capacity for ICU/ventilator treatment. Meanwhile, when Italy asks for our help, the government immediately denies any and all assistance, because of course, they know that the worst is yet to hit, and it has the potential to be pretty bad. It's time to admit how serious the situation is and shut down these insane requests to reopen schools. Bah, I'd promised myself to stop being angry over this, as I can't affect it anyway, but it's really hard to see how nonchalant and stupidly optimist some people are. I wish our government would be honest and tell people to stuff that dumb expectation that everything is going back to normal soon where the sun doesn't shine. We need to adapt, not refuse to accept realities.
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Apr 3, 2020 15:01
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PederP posted:I'm seriously angry at all the Danes talking about how schools and high schools are going to reopen after Easter. Are they insane? I work in a kindergarten and I'm if not scared by this then more than little nervous. You can't do social distancing when you work with kids, there's no national guidelines and likely no time to make some.
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Apr 3, 2020 15:41
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MiddleOne posted:Propaganda is propaganda. Both the government and FHM are signaling in all channels available for people to be afraid and change behavior. The almost complete death of the hospitality industry is proof that it has been very effective at that task so far. Yes. those last bits (the parties as you title them) are an eyesore. But as we're seeing with Skistars Easter shutdown even those can be budged given enough naming and shaming. All this so far without enacting an inflexible, costly and manpower-enforced utter shutdown of society. Well I hope you are right. If you are maybe the anarchists were right about how to structure society. But I have a feeling the reluctance to use the law in this case has more to do with some of the wrongdoers being upstanding middle class citizens just living their life and not e.g. alcoholic drunk drivers who deserve punishment for the risk they inflict on others on the way to work.
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Apr 3, 2020 15:52
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I just got an e-mail from my boss (high school principal), saying that we’re expecting to work from home for some time after Easter. I doubt he has much power to keep the kids at home if Frederiksen reopens the country, but the schools definitely aren’t eager to open this soon.
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Apr 3, 2020 16:18
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Katt posted:Corona fight chart: Corona chart: Baltic Sea: Latvia:493 Lithuania: 696 Estonia: 961 Finland: 1,615 Denmark: 3,672 North Sea: Sweden: 6,078 United Kingdom: 38,168 Germany: 87,244 Northern Atlantic: Svalbard: 0 Greenland: 10 Faroe Islands: 179 Iceland: 1,364 Norway: 5,296
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Apr 3, 2020 16:49
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