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mega green
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Apr 6, 2020 20:50
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 01:27 |
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Green. I didn't jump in on this one. Good luck to anyone who did.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:50
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Green at end of day is the new normal 
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Apr 6, 2020 20:51
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Green. DO IT DO IT
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Apr 6, 2020 20:51
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No way. Calls were too expensive at 3:45. The 2/3DTE were up like 700%. There's not much energy left there at that point.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:53
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FreelanceSocialist posted:No way. Calls were too expensive at 3:45. I wonder why they were more expensive this time than the last day you bought a call, stronger green I suppose.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:54
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Inner Light posted:Great info guys, thanks. Then I'm confused about the benefit of das's move. Maybe it's to pocket some of the cash of the move as it turns from OTM to ITM, then use SOME of that cash to purchase a put at a lower strike price than the original put, but not all of the cash you gain. It's basically just a way to take gains and maintaining roughly the same exposure with an instrument that is volatile. Like, let's say I bought 2 puts and they doubled in price. I could either sell one, meaning my remaining put would be house money, or roll them down to puts with half the price. In one situation I have half cash and one ITM put, in the other it's half cash and 2 OTM puts.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:55
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We opened way up this morning and continued to gain throughout the day. Not much left to climb at the end. I am going to grab a few puts here, though.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:55
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Lol at this EOD volume and movement.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:55
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Josh Lyman posted:I'm going long ES into 3:50pm 
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Apr 6, 2020 20:56
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Bought VXX. Will reshort on strength tomorrow.
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Apr 6, 2020 20:56
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My face is melting on!
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Apr 6, 2020 20:56
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so those 3:50pm candles are somehow due to MOC orders having their order flow revealed to traders at that exact time, and algos pounce on it: https://twitter.com/WallStJesus/status/1247250625655640064?s=20 https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1247251029831356416?s=20 https://twitter.com/DogtheTrader/status/1247251102635929600?s=20 https://twitter.com/followtheh/status/1247250979709485058?s=20 https://twitter.com/JustinPulitzer/status/1247250876970029056?s=20 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketonclose.asp I guess MOC orders are institutional investors (pensions, primary dealers, hedge funds, etc.?) and mutual fund orders? So if you can guess the direction of those for the day, you can predict the 3:50pm candle?
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Apr 6, 2020 20:57
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There was a bid for 900 ES at 2625 around 3:30pm. 
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Apr 6, 2020 20:57
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Big green PP energy
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Apr 6, 2020 20:57
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First 10% day for me since Friday March 13. One of my few green days since then. It's nice to stop the bleeding but I still have a TON of work to do.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:00
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What a weird day.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:03
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pmchem posted:I guess MOC orders are institutional investors (pensions, primary dealers, hedge funds, etc.?) and mutual fund orders? So if you can guess the direction of those for the day, you can predict the 3:50pm candle? Don't even have to predict it. Just watch the candle at 3:50 and follow it at 3:51. The rest of the market pushes the momentum for a few minutes after the candle. It usually peters out around 3:55. Today I didn't have the money to risk and calls were expensive leading into 3:50 due to the high open this AM and the constant trend upwards all day. I want to watch a few more days and see if we ever get an inversion between 3:50-3:55. So far the trend never reverses. FreelanceSocialist fucked around with this message at 21:05 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 21:03
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this is stupid i am stupid this is like horse racing levels of degenerate (min bet to test the theory) 
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Apr 6, 2020 21:05
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Yes. This is stupid and we are gambling. THREAD NEWCOMERS DON'T DO THIS poo poo YOU'LL LOSE EVERYTHING AND A PANDEMIC IS A BAD TIME TO LOSE THINGS
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Apr 6, 2020 21:06
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Doccykins posted:this is stupid i am stupid this is like horse racing levels of degenerate (min bet to test the theory) No idea what anything in this post means 
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Apr 6, 2020 21:08
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Inner Light posted:No idea what anything in this post means He made 17.07 blimeycoins in a few minutes following the candles.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:11
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Doccykins posted:this is stupid i am stupid this is like horse racing levels of degenerate (min bet to test the theory) One of the reasons I have been buying dividend stocks is because the payouts make me less inclined to sell and start gambling options again. I made pretty good money in 2019 (first year trading options) but the volatility and stress of options trading is too much for me.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:12
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I couldn’t help myself. I bought a few ITM puts when SPY spiked to 266.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:15
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Loving this +7% day. Not fun for all the degenerate put gamblers here but sure is nice for any of our real investments. Best money to be made in this market is the AAA stocks on the rebound for the end of the year.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:15
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 Does anyone know why my Robinhood occasionally shows figures for daily or all-time change that are wildly inaccurate? For example today my daily gain was in the hundreds of $. No idea where these numbers are coming from. It seems unwise for me to trust a company with my money that can't accurately display a balance chart.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:15
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FreelanceSocialist posted:Yes. This is stupid and we are gambling. Can confirm. down 75% since I started this. Don't gently caress around with money you wouldn't bet on red or black on a roulette wheel. I'm not dicking around with my retirement, or any other sort of money I can't afford to lose. Learned another hard lesson today. Trust your gut. I've been staring at the chart not believing this poo poo all day, and saw DIS hit 100, and was like no loving way. Waited 2 minutes too long to take a position that would have paid off well.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:20
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Felt like an idiot after buying Friday. Feels good today.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:23
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I couldn't be assed to log in to my brokerage account so here's yahoo's one minute candles of today's spike: It looks to me like the trend line set between 3:20pm and ~3:45pm was exactly restored by 4:02pm, so basically the big boys making MOC orders are eating like 20 or 30 points on their buys, just because they have to. But it's fascinating that apparently algos and such haven't figured out how to exploit this to a market-moving degree that effectively smooths it out into oblivion. I'm expecting that to happen any day now.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:23
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Inner Light posted:Great info guys, thanks. Then I'm confused about the benefit of das's move. Maybe it's to pocket some of the cash of the move as it turns from OTM to ITM, then use SOME of that cash to purchase a put at a lower strike price than the original put, but not all of the cash you gain. The benefits are: das's plan will be easier to execute the roll down portion of, because when rolling down selling the ITM option will be easier and quicker due to liquidity, and, buying OTM generally gives you more delta than buying atm. Harry Potter on Ice posted:Do I aim right for when I think it's going to fall or do I overshoot a little? Is there potential for infinite loss buying a put or is that writing? I should probably paper trade options for a while, maybe If you buy a longer dated expiry, you pay more now, and so you gain a smaller percentage on the money you put in. Additionally, longer dated options are less affected by volatility than are shorter dated options: your theory is that things will fall off a cliff as opposed to a slow bleed out. Falling off a cliff will mean a huge spike in vol, so a nearer dated option, when it happens, will gain more percentage wise from both rising volatility, and the option going further in the money. And you have a higher probability of realizing a total loss, because if you buy a put and it reaches expiry OTM, you have 0 money. You cannot get infinite loss buying any option. You can get infinite loss writing a call. Your maximum loss writing a put is the strike price * 100 * contracts you wrote. (If you wrote a GME put for 2, you would at most have to buy worthless GME stock at 2.00 / share * 100 shares, or $200 / contract) Leperflesh posted:I couldn't be assed to log in to my brokerage account so here's yahoo's one minute candles of today's spike: I don't have the bankroll to run the play as you describe it, but I did go looking through daily charts for a couple of weeks; because even if I don't know what way the candle's gonna spike, I could still make a bunch off this if mean reversion held. Mean reversion doesn't hold with any reliability. Dwight Eisenhower fucked around with this message at 21:26 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 21:24
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but I'll keep asking questions for the thread to laugh at for now
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enraged_camel posted:https://twitter.com/MarkLevineNYC/status/1247156159896748032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1247156159896748032 What better way to get your name in the national news than make a sensational statement like this on twitter. Thank you councilman Mark Levine for your insider insight. Still sitting in cash, so I am sure this rally will continue. If you guys want I can buy some SPY tomorrow and we will surely see another freefall 10-20%. Cheesemaster200 fucked around with this message at 21:28 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 21:25
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Well I trusted my gut today and am still shellshocked by how bad it turned out.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:28
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Eventually your gut will have such bad PTSD it won't risk more than 10% on any one trade and then everything will be better. Unless it is wrong like 10 times in a row. Which happens.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:33
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Leperflesh posted:I couldn't be assed to log in to my brokerage account so here's yahoo's one minute candles of today's spike: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hv1dRbkmuHE
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Apr 6, 2020 21:33
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The HFT algos know what is up. They ride the wave up/down. Why stand in front of it?
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Apr 6, 2020 21:36
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Kirios posted:Apparently Ring Fit's been a runaway success for them during this outbreak. It was a quiet success before the pandemic, but the fact that the pandemic has shut factories and exacerbated the shortage to the total sold out point has really underlined the point. I recall months ago seeing photos on twitter of big empty Ring Fit displays in Japan game shops.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:37
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skipdogg posted:Can confirm. down 75% since I started this. Can also confirm. Initially put in 5k over the course of 2 weeks, then another 5, for a total of $10k. Went up to $28k, or $18k profit, on 3/18. Made some bad choices with the profits I rolled, and held too long on others. Should've sold 3/23 when it was at $22k. Friday I was back up to $11k. Now I'm at 5k, for a $5k loss. All my puts are for 4/17 or later, but theta is going to kill the 4/17 ones soon, and the later ones in May or June won't have a chance if this isn't just a bull trap. Hard lessons learned. Bored As Fuck fucked around with this message at 21:41 on Apr 6, 2020 |
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Apr 6, 2020 21:39
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Not just "don't gently caress around with non-gambling money" but "don't gently caress around with more than a little bit of gambling money on any particular gamble". That's how you end up throwing good money after bad - when you burn your account to the ground on one bad trade. I didn't play around with the candle today because most of my gambling money is in some ETFs through mid-week and I'd have to put all the rest of my liquidity on the line. Too risky. I've been trying to avoid gambling more than about 20% at any one time. It should really be 10%, but I'm weak.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:42
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I think this one's hard: I used to bet 15-20% of my portfolio. Now I put 5% tops on any one position, and the aggregate of all of those speculative plays is never more than 20%. Lots of people will tell you not to gamble more than 5%, but it's a lot easier to limit yourself to 5% if 5% is 2500 than if it's 500. There are positions you can't even play with a smaller account if you're only doing 5%.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:49
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 01:27 |
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Nothing I’ve seen with the stock market makes me trust it in the short term. Long term, maybe, though things have changed over the past few decades. But the next week or month?  Inconceivable.
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Apr 6, 2020 21:50
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