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When I get a God Hand that curves out perfectly to a turn 4 kill, that is the shuffler working correctly. When I draw 2 mountains in a row, that is the shuffler malfunctioning. One thing that's helped me avoid conspiatorial thinking about ~the shuffler~ is running an overlay that tracks what's left in my deck and what the probability of drawing a given card is. It is also helpful for letting me know if I have any outs left to peel, or should explode.
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Apr 9, 2020 15:53
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when i'm helping younger people understand probability i like to point out that if you flip a coin 10 times in a row and get heads every time, the impulse is to assume something's wrong with the coin or the way someone is flipping it but it's exactly as likely as flipping it and getting any other specific pattern of flips. the law of large numbers says at some point, given enough time, any specific random result is going to happen & it's just human nature to see patterns in the noise. you remember drawing your fifth land in a row a hell of a lot more than the dozens of games you played where that didn't happen this is also a fun example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_nines_in_pi
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Apr 9, 2020 16:04
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Waffleopolis posted:That was my thinking. You think it's okay to splash for both Klothys AND Dragonmaster Outcast? If not stopped late game it can get out of hand. If it isn't too late, I'd cut elvish reclaimer. You don't have a lot of ways to put lands in the graveyard and a 1/2 1-drop isn't going to help you much, if at all. Outcast is probably fine at R, unlike reclaimer it is useful late-game (the only time it is, heh). Labyrinth is good, but you have a lot of BB cards at 3 and 4 CMC (and cavalier of night at BBB/5 CMC), I'd cut it for another swamp, even with ilysian caryatid.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:13
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Owlbear Camus posted:
Have a link?
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Apr 9, 2020 17:25
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The shuffler is a little rigged, but only for your starting hand (as far as I know anyway)
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Apr 9, 2020 17:33
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JakeP posted:The shuffler is a little rigged, but only for your starting hand (as far as I know anyway) Only in Bo1 though
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Apr 9, 2020 17:46
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Owlbear Camus posted:When I get a God Hand that curves out perfectly to a turn 4 kill, that is the shuffler working correctly. On the other hand when you know that you just have a 4% chance of drawing your last land in a limited game when anything else left in your deck would save you and then you draw that land, woof.
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Apr 9, 2020 17:52
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Zero VGS posted:Have a link? https://mtga.untapped.gg/
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Apr 9, 2020 18:08
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Zero VGS posted:Have a link? https://www.overwolf.com/app/AetherHub_MTGA_Assistant
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Apr 9, 2020 18:10
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flatluigi posted:despite people constantly posting conspiracy theories and misunderstanding probability, all actual attempts to try to track variance over a large dataset have found nothing that looks different to shuffling a physical deck
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Apr 9, 2020 18:18
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not even the arena thread is safe from shuffling discourse
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Apr 9, 2020 18:20
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Yeah, I guess me complaining about people at my FNM shuffling really poorly doesn't belong in this thread. But it's really annoying!
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Apr 9, 2020 18:21
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odiv posted:Yeah, I guess me complaining about people at my FNM shuffling really poorly doesn't belong in this thread. shuffle their decks for them
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Apr 9, 2020 18:23
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Zero VGS posted:Have a link? untapped.gg
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Apr 9, 2020 18:30
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Lone Goat posted:shuffle their decks for them (No I don't do this, but yes, I'm pretty much the only person who shuffles instead of cuts when presented with a deck.)
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Apr 9, 2020 18:32
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Thanks, I'm trying that out. Also, I just lost my Ashiok ultimate and all my timeouts due to a bug, I went to report it and someone else already had the same thing a week ago: https://feedback.wizards.com/forums/918667-mtg-arena-bugs/suggestions/40094677-ashiok-nightmare-muse-ult-lock
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Apr 9, 2020 18:35
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overwolf is pretty bad and likes to sneak in malware ads (and when I used it for hearthstone forever ago it took a loving lot of effort to fully install it) just use untapped.gg JakeP posted:The shuffler is a little rigged, but only for your starting hand (as far as I know anyway) The starting hand stuff is different and has no relevance past the first seven cards you're presented with in best of 1. All it does is virtually draw two hands from separate shuffled decks and present you with the one it considers 'better' in terms of lands (so if you get a 0 lander and a 1 lander guess you're getting the 1 lander). people spent a bunch of effort trying to break it when it was first mentioned, but iirc they've updated this smoothing since and best practices for lands in your deck have ended up being basically the same as in paper. Note that if you mulligan there's no smoothing, and it doesn't exist in best of 3 matches; it's just meant to make there be less non-games in bo1 in the most basic way possible.
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Apr 9, 2020 19:00
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flatluigi posted:overwolf is pretty bad and likes to sneak in malware ads (and when I used it for hearthstone forever ago it took a loving lot of effort to fully install it) I wasn't aware of the Malware stuff but I went ahead and switched and the untapped feels a lot less glitchy and tempermental so thanks.
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Apr 9, 2020 20:04
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In Brawl, if I let my commander go to the graveyard and she gets moved to exile from there; do I get a new chance to move her to the command zone?
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Apr 9, 2020 20:43
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VictualSquid posted:In Brawl, if I let my commander go to the graveyard and she gets moved to exile from there; do I get a new chance to move her to the command zone? that is correct, returning to the command zone is an optional replacement effect on moving to the library/hand/graveyard/exile from anywhere
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Apr 9, 2020 21:08
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I am enjoying the cube sealed but I wish you got actual rewards for winning every game not just break even
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Apr 10, 2020 01:16
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Holy poo poo. Sorry everyone, I just thought both players simultaneously topdecking four in a row (actually am curious to know the probability of that since we have experts on hand) was a funny situation. I like weird scenarios like that, would have been heartbroken if either of us broke the sequence, and had no idea people would get triggered anywhere near this hard. Like goddamn. Still, in these uncertain times, it's reassuring to come back to the forum after years of absence and find that, in terms of nuance, reading comprehension and basic human nature, absolutely nothing has changed.
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Apr 10, 2020 03:17
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Taking Temur Clover for one last ride. Hopefully the deck stays viable in Ikoria standard. I also hope there's a tier 1.5 deck that just stacks mutation triggers onto one huge lovecraftian nightmare of a creature.
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Apr 10, 2020 03:43
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Fendahleen posted:Holy poo poo. Sorry everyone, I just thought both players simultaneously topdecking four in a row (actually am curious to know the probability of that since we have experts on hand) was a funny situation. I like weird scenarios like that, would have been heartbroken if either of us broke the sequence, and had no idea people would get triggered anywhere near this hard. Like goddamn. Please don't use the phrase 'triggered' so flippantly, you're not on Reddit any more
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Apr 10, 2020 03:48
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ungulateman posted:Please don't use the phrase 'triggered' so flippantly, you're not on Reddit any more Give him a break, he's got both Yarok and Teysa on the board.
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Apr 10, 2020 03:53
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Fendahleen posted:Holy poo poo. Sorry everyone, I just thought both players simultaneously topdecking four in a row (actually am curious to know the probability of that since we have experts on hand) was a funny situation. I like weird scenarios like that, would have been heartbroken if either of us broke the sequence, and had no idea people would get triggered anywhere near this hard. Like goddamn. this fuckin goof calls him mum every time he rolls a critical 20
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Apr 10, 2020 04:36
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AngryBooch posted:I also hope there's a tier 1.5 deck that just stacks mutation triggers onto one huge lovecraftian nightmare of a creature. Clover gets a great dual land and maybe Song of Creation plus maybe the ultimatum and mythos will be good? It seems really hard to lose with song if you plan things out a little, so many cards.
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Apr 10, 2020 05:15
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If I correctly understand how Mutate works, you should be able to turn a legendary creature into a non-legendary that still has the legendary's textbox, so you could effectively duplicate legendaries with abilities that stack or multiply in fun ways. You could already do this with Spark Double, but now any color could do this.
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Apr 10, 2020 05:28
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poo poo, casting Casualties of War and hitting five targets is soooooo loving good.
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Apr 10, 2020 05:45
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Lone Goat posted:this fuckin goof calls him mum every time he rolls a critical 20 One time with Mirror March in Arena, I won something like 16 coinflips in a row. Whatever it was I remember it coming out to 1:32000 odds. The thing is, I've to this day gotten off maybe a dozen total mirror marches and more than half have been extremely unlikely flips like 6-8 heads in a row. I think the psuedorandom generator might have been a little wonky. This is the same company that made every booster pack give a Mythic WC for 3 hours straight, after all.
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Apr 10, 2020 06:07
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you burned all your bad RNs in matches where you never got to resolve mirror march
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Apr 10, 2020 07:46
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ungulateman posted:you burned all your bad RNs in matches where you never got to resolve mirror march Oh hey I found it, Teferi gets pounded by 16 Colossi:  The coins went way off the loving screen when it happened
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Apr 10, 2020 07:59
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MTGA has opened that all cards brawl, and I have no idea what is even in historic. Does anybody have any cool archetypes to suggest? Or any OP historc cards that fit into a standard Orzhov Sacrifice/Token deck?Zero VGS posted:One time with Mirror March in Arena, I won something like 16 coinflips in a row. Whatever it was I remember it coming out to 1:32000 odds. The thing is, I've to this day gotten off maybe a dozen total mirror marches and more than half have been extremely unlikely flips like 6-8 heads in a row. I think the psuedorandom generator might have been a little wonky. This is the same company that made every booster pack give a Mythic WC for 3 hours straight, after all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP-Ipsat90c Here is what you actually want from Arena. A less random system that feels more random to people: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5qnnxFoBss
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Apr 10, 2020 08:33
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IMJack posted:If I correctly understand how Mutate works, you should be able to turn a legendary creature into a non-legendary that still has the legendary's textbox, so you could effectively duplicate legendaries with abilities that stack or multiply in fun ways. You could already do this with Spark Double, but now any color could do this. That's a nuance I hadn't considered but now that I have I like it. Yeah, it doesn't make huge creatures unless one has lots of +1/+1 counters, it makes creatures with huge textboxes. But I suspect a 0/0s with counters, proliferate, and mutates deck might prove super strong. Like, Stonecoil Serpent, Ugin's Conjurant, Hydras, etc. If not powerful, then at least fun. E: boy I need to stop even bothering to try to ladder until the new set is out. About half the people I run into in the Bo1 queue are running main deck Aether Gust. thespaceinvader fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Apr 10, 2020 |
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Apr 10, 2020 08:51
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thespaceinvader posted:About half the people I run into in the Bo1 queue are running main deck Aether Gust. Also conjurant is pretty far down the list of useful cards. Why bother with Conjurant when you can mutate a Brokkos onto an escaped Polukranus and one hit your opponent if they've so much as taken a shock?
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Apr 10, 2020 09:23
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Spiderdrake posted:Good news: Aether gust is amazing vs mutate, extra amazing vs the mutate mythics and three-four color good stuff centered on green is likely to only grow stronger. So expect more AEther gusts, not less. Damage prevention. Basically. Also being able to cast it cheaply on early turns. Stonecoil would be a higher priority though. E: and as for the latter point, at the point where you have successfully escaped Polukranos, you probably don't need to mutate Brokkos onto it to win.
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Apr 10, 2020 09:33
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thespaceinvader posted:Damage prevention. Basically. Also being able to cast it cheaply on early turns. Stonecoil would be a higher priority though. You can play Polukranos on 4 and get 6 counters, which is a better rate than what you get out of Conjurant.
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Apr 10, 2020 09:41
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thespaceinvader posted:E: and as for the latter point, at the point where you have successfully escaped Polukranos, you probably don't need to mutate Brokkos onto it to win. Also Conjurant has a drawback. Re-read it.
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Apr 10, 2020 09:41
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flatluigi posted:despite people constantly posting conspiracy theories and misunderstanding probability, all actual attempts to try to track variance over a large dataset have found nothing that looks different to shuffling a physical deck People in our LGS including the owner are 100% sure that the ladder shuffler is rigged to keep you at ~50% winrate "just like in Gwent and HS" unless you are an MPL member or a transgender streamer, I poo poo you not.
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Apr 10, 2020 10:03
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fatherboxx posted:People in our LGS including the owner are 100% sure that the ladder shuffler is rigged to keep you at ~50% winrate "just like in Gwent and HS" unless you are an MPL member or a transgender streamer, I poo poo you not. I'm a cishet male and I have a 70% win rate in draft, and I'm not even good at this game. tell everyone in your LGS that they're a bunch of no good jabronis
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Apr 10, 2020 10:29
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