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5,000 years of posting this image
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Apr 10, 2020 23:20
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| # ? Jun 5, 2024 00:30 |
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Has good China content: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7ppUBxhYYc
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Apr 10, 2020 23:37
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Everyone go look up the order of battle for Operation Overlord, planned orders of battle for Operation Downfall, imagine an operation 2 - 3 times larger, and then imagine the attackers lacking air and sea supremacy. Everyone looks at a Taiwan invasion scenario assuming that the PLA would be able to easily put boots on the ground but frankly if they even got into a position to do that it would be a miracle on its own. Amphibious invasions are really, really hard and even successful ones where everything goes right result in massive casualties for the attackers. For comparison: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dieppe_Raid Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 23:46 on Apr 10, 2020 |
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Apr 10, 2020 23:43
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I can't be the only one thinking 'Uh, nukes?'
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Apr 11, 2020 00:00
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WarpedNaba posted:I can't be the only one thinking 'Uh, nukes?' We're in the Armchair Strategist Bookstore, nukes ruin everything
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Apr 11, 2020 00:16
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WarpedNaba posted:I can't be the only one thinking 'Uh, nukes?' Probably: No Why.
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Apr 11, 2020 00:33
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WarpedNaba posted:I can't be the only one thinking 'Uh, nukes?' I don't think China is willing to risk the consequences of that. As bootlicking as the world has been toward the PRC, I genuinely do not think that the PRC first striking Taiwan with nukes because Taiwan refuses to give up their sovereignty is going to get support from anybody. That's a total psycho move. And if the world has deteriorated to the point where a country can get away with that, pack it in because nothing matters.
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Apr 11, 2020 00:35
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Grand Fromage posted:I don't think China is willing to risk the consequences of that. As bootlicking as the world has been toward the PRC, I genuinely do not think that the PRC first striking Taiwan with nukes because Taiwan refuses to give up their sovereignty is going to get support from anybody. That's a total psycho move. While we scholars who have contributed to this open letter sympathize with the people currently struggling in the smoking ruins of Taipei, we are very concerned with escalatory rhetoric coming from the West; if we are going to escape a military clash with a rising China, we must be sure to accommodate its core interests; it's only natural it would wipe out millions in nuclear hellfire in areas Beijing sees as its sphere of influence (Remember the Monroe Doctrine?) and we need to be sure not to antagonize China with constant interventions.
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Apr 11, 2020 00:46
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trump will nuke california well before china nukes taiwan
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Apr 11, 2020 02:03
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Ugly In The Morning posted:The MLRS is also referred to as a “grid square removal system”, since one firing all twelve tubes can completely cover a square kilometer with submunitions. MLRS is not in that list and Taiwan does not operate it. Edit: one variant of the LT/RT-2000 does use the bomblets that the MLRS rocket used, but the older, less reliable style. So it creates an instant minefield as well! GotLag fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 02:08
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GotLag posted:MLRS is not in that list and Taiwan does not operate it. The last two on that list are MLRS systems, although the acronym on the list was MRL (Multi-Rocket-Launcher?) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thunderbolt-2000 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kung_Feng_Multiple_Launch_Rocket_System
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Apr 11, 2020 02:14
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MLRS is a specific system, MRL (multiple rocket launcher) is the general term for rocket artillery M270 MLRS is the one nicknamed "grid square removal system" (from its name while in development, GSRS)
GotLag fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 02:21
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GotLag posted:MLRS is a specific system, MRL (multiple rocket launcher) is the general term for rocket artillery This is getting into  territory, but MLRS is an acronym. M270 is a system, although I think you're correct in the sense that ugly in the morning was specifically referring to the M270, which Taiwan doesn't field.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:36
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Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:38
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content. Calling Asia "the East" is weird
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Apr 11, 2020 02:43
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oohhboy posted:Ballistic missiles and guided munitions aren't magic. Runways can be repaired fairly quickly and alternates ready to get planes back up like the exercise in Germany landing a plane the highway with equipment ready to rearm. You can't shoot what you can't see so there will be enough aircraft to keep the sky contested for a while and ground forces would be pretty alright. The US didn't kill a single SCUD launcher in Gulf War one and that was pretty much open terrain. Was going to chime in with this; Taiwan has a whole lot of places set up on their roads that are specifically widened and meant as backup airstrips, and even places aren't specifically intended for that are definitely long/flat/wide enough in many areas that they could be used as such. More than landing strips themselves just the planes are liable to run out. Also, re: the aforementioned gap of a few weeks before the US could potentially actually mount a response in the case of a boots on ground invasion; Taiwan is extremely mountainous and has very, very defensible terrain. If China weren't to invade at *at least* two or more locations simultaneously it would be extremely difficult to take the rest of the island over land against resistance, and potentially Taiwanese forces could hold out for the US to arrive, or to just draw out the conflict and hope for massive political backlash against the CCP when the true toll of the conflict is realized. However at that point it really just goes back to the point what Blistex also mentioned; the morale and will of Taiwanese forces, and in the end whether China having killed massive numbers of civilians and maybe flattening Taipei almost entirely in the course of the initial stages stiffens peoples' resolves.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:44
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Fojar38 posted:Calling Asia "the East" is weird lol it's fine.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:45
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content. Nobody is "wanking" over conflicts that would almost inevitably kill us, our family, and/or our friends.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:47
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Grand Fromage posted:I don't think China is willing to risk the consequences of that. As bootlicking as the world has been toward the PRC, I genuinely do not think that the PRC first striking Taiwan with nukes because Taiwan refuses to give up their sovereignty is going to get support from anybody. That's a total psycho move. I was thinking more 'escalation between two nuclear powers over the unprovoked and continued invasion of a sovereign country', less first strike and more second month of hostilities. Kind of like the Crimean annexation, only the EU actually did something other than send support and clamp sanctions.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:48
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content. Much like you are posting
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Apr 11, 2020 02:48
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WarpedNaba posted:I was thinking more 'escalation between two nuclear powers over the unprovoked and continued invasion of a sovereign country', less first strike and more second month of hostilities. The thing about Crimea is that they share a border with Russia and Russia was able to do things under the guise of it being Ukrainian elements causing the conflict and Russia just going to pacify things or whatnot. That's done specifically because it makes it much, much harder for other powers to intervene. None of that would work or fly with Taiwan in any feasible scenario.
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Apr 11, 2020 02:52
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content. Look at this guy! Assuming that I'm people. Edit: Assumed you were Cabe's re-reg until I saw your reg date. Blistex fucked around with this message at 02:55 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 02:53
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Fojar38 posted:Calling Asia "the East" is weird Isn't normal for Japanese at least to refer to themselves as being in the East? Of course historically that has meant in relation to China, but still, I'm not sure this is just a clueless European anachronism.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:10
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:Seriously, a bunch of white people wanking over 'military strategy' or whatever in the East is eughh..... not good content. Do black people not like military strategy? It seems pretty racist to assume what other people find interesting. And why do you need to be so specific about it? Also, yeah, complaining about a lack of content that you personally enjoy while making none of your own is kind of lame. I, for one, find hearing that Taiwan is so well-defended one of the few positive things to read in this thread. It's interesting too.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:17
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tbh it's way more interesting than the foodchat spiral the thread sometimes gets stuck in
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Apr 11, 2020 03:19
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If Taiwan's virus numbers are to be believed I might make it my first stop once air travel resumes. That and it's nearly as far as I can get out of my house without a moon mission.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:30
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Squalid posted:Isn't normal for Japanese at least to refer to themselves as being in the East? Of course historically that has meant in relation to China, but still, I'm not sure this is just a clueless European anachronism. I live on the west coast of north america, so Asia is uh to the west? Yeah, due west. I'm not going to let eurotrash dictate that I should call it the far, far, far East instead. Pacific Ocean Best Ocean.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:39
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Taiwan is definitely defended as poo poo, I just posted in the milhist thread about accidentally stumbling into a military installation somewhere in the hills. And I didn't know that I had done so until two guys in uniform told me to turn around. Like when you're in Taiwan it doesn't seem super militarized but it's there. Also jet fighters blasting down my street at what I'm pretty sure was like 200 feet on 10/10 was pretty sweet. Taiwan FUCKS.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:40
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It's worth noting that China did literally mount an invasion of Taiwan once. Obviously a naval battle and landing that happened 70 years ago isn't exactly comparable to today, but the absolute failure of the Communist Party's attempt to finish the Civil War and unify China is the reason why it never happened again. Seriously, a single ROC boat was in the wrong place (for China) and it completely ruined China's day. What's fascinating is that since it was such a complete catastrophe for China, Taiwan probably could have declared itself independent and the Republic of Taiwan at that very moment and we wouldn't be in the situation we are now. But Chiang Kai Shek was such an absolute gently caress himself that he genuinely believed that he'd eventually reclaim the mainland. A lot of people don't realize that some of the dumbest parts of the status quo, like Taiwanese sports teams being called "Chinese Taipei" were because of the insistence of CKS and had nothing to do with China. China of course has benefited from the hubris of CKS and likes things pretty much the way they are.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:47
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Squalid posted:Isn't normal for Japanese at least to refer to themselves as being in the East? Of course historically that has meant in relation to China, but still, I'm not sure this is just a clueless European anachronism. It's common for people east asia and SEA to refer to themselves as being from the east. It's a natural follow-up to describing 'westerners' as being from the 'west', or varying degrees of it, despite the fact that when people in China or Hong Kong or Taiwan or Singapore or whatever talk about 'westerners', they are not talking about geography but culture and/or race (typically). The truth is, theorizing over under what circumstances China would nuke Taiwan or whatever is pretty boring, and so is pretending to be a military commander, and in the various iterations of this thread it has been done over and over. Food chat is definitely far more interesting and equally masturbatory but in a good way. Taiwan fried 'popcorn' chicken is delicious. Cantonese fried noodles with 'black beans' (aka soy beans), beef, and bell peppers is delicious. 'Salt-Pepper' tofu is delicious. Skewered lamb and beef covered in cumin that you cook at your table while drinking watery, pissy beer, is delicious. Shrimp or Shrimps fucked around with this message at 03:57 on Apr 11, 2020 |
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Apr 11, 2020 03:51
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at least people itt are likely to have personal experience and knowledge about food so they can talk about Cantonese fried noodles with some authority. The problem with wannabe Tom Clancy's is that 9/10 times they don't know poo poo, because anybody who actually knows what they're talking about isn't going to be allowed to say anything. It's relatively easy to make simple comparisons about number of fighter planes and boats and etc, and it does tell us something. But almost every time the conversation gets into speculation about specific operations or diplomacy it rapidly becomes so speculative that it shifts into the realm of pure fantasy.
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Apr 11, 2020 03:59
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Shrimp or Shrimps posted:It's common for people east asia and SEA to refer to themselves as being from the east. It's a natural follow-up to describing 'westerners' as being from the 'west', or varying degrees of it, despite the fact that when people in China or Hong Kong or Taiwan or Singapore or whatever talk about 'westerners', they are not talking about geography but culture and/or race (typically). If you don't like a subject you're welcome to not read it!
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Apr 11, 2020 04:03
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who else is complaining?
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Apr 11, 2020 04:03
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Shadow0 posted:Also, yeah, complaining about a lack of content that you personally enjoy while making none of your own is kind of lame. I wouldn't 'make content' about stuff I don't know much about. There are conversations I stay out of because of that. The every few months military circle jerk, I might be wrong like what do I know but I have this weird suspicion that 99% of it is bullshit and people barely know what they're talking about. Half of it seems to be different people rehashing things they've 'learned' from other people in this same conversation in the same thread 6 months ago. It's true that the PLA sucks and would get stomped on, but all this other stuff is like 'uhhu yea the US has a giant army what a revelation' It's like the inverse of what goes on in the other China threads when you read someone saying something and think 'lol this guys huffing his own farts he has no idea about whatever China thing.' Food chat is at least something real, you can safely assume the people talking about food have actually eaten the foods they're talking about, everybody knows what they think tastes good, etc.
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Apr 11, 2020 04:05
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Horatius Bonar posted:Taiwan is definitely defended as poo poo, I just posted in the milhist thread about accidentally stumbling into a military installation somewhere in the hills. And I didn't know that I had done so until two guys in uniform told me to turn around. Like when you're in Taiwan it doesn't seem super militarized but it's there. Taiwan is fairly militarized given its size, but there's lots of issues as well and their national service is seen as something of a joke and waste of time by the people who do it (just ask literally almost any Taiwanese male), and there's serious implication about the quality and effectiveness of their forces as a result. They're basically reliant on conscription to fill their forces with trained personnel but they've reduced the time *a lot* which could gently caress them in the case shots are fired in anger. Right now the Taiwanese military is literally at something like 80% of their budgeted strength across the board because they just don't have the people, across both professional military and conscripts.
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Apr 11, 2020 04:09
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Horatius Bonar posted:Taiwan is definitely defended as poo poo, I just posted in the milhist thread about accidentally stumbling into a military installation somewhere in the hills. And I didn't know that I had done so until two guys in uniform told me to turn around. Like when you're in Taiwan it doesn't seem super militarized but it's there. Taiwan, like Korea has a lot of built-in defenses that you can walk past and almost miss. I was living 20km from the DMZ when I was in Korea and whenever I would go hiking along the hills and valleys you'd see various bunkers, MG nests, and obstacles built into the countryside that would make for a very bad time should someone want to invade. The massive concrete blocks that fall across highways was really impressive, and I would hate to think how much of a bloodbath it would be trying to make your way through the valleys or even between apartments and not get absolutely wrecked from hidden positions. Also I was living between the US airbase and their weapons range, so every day was an impromptu airshow with A-10s doing mock gun runs and F-16s screaming overhead.
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Apr 11, 2020 04:12
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Didn't Taiwan end mandatory service?
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Apr 11, 2020 04:15
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Reading up on this, apparently they have not. There have been talks to end it and there was a timetable in place to end it by 2014 (this is when I left Taiwan and I hadn't followed up) but mandatory service is still very much a thing. There are apparently a bunch of alternatives to actual military service available and the service time may be as low as 4 months. But that's something I need to stay on top of because my son will likely have to serve if things stay as they are. gently caress.
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Apr 11, 2020 04:23
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Nuking Taiwan would be a massive loss of face
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Apr 11, 2020 04:27
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Atlas Hugged posted:Didn't Taiwan end mandatory service? Everyone still has a 4 month mandatory service with military training, but the military itself has moved to a fully professional military in times of peace. Thus their strength is 188k (budgeted; they don't actually have enough people to fill this and they're hoping to get ~90% of this within 2020) professional military, then theoretically another 2mm or so people with military training that can be mobilized. It's supposedly done to cut costs of training all the conscripts for longer, and under the theory that in the case of an invasion the direction will largely be decided early on by professional troops operating high-cost high-tech equipment, then you have a lot of warm bodies with at least basic training in case things move beyond that and you need ground troops to slog it out in the mountains. Good in theory but there's lot of negativity around the mandatory service still and many youth resent it and it gives them lower confidence in their military. Edit: you beat me. Also your son can live with running around for 4 months.
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Apr 11, 2020 04:27
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