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poisonpill
Nov 8, 2009

The only way to get huge fast is to insult a passing witch and hope she curses you with Beast-strength.


I’d love an effortpost on how to trade in the US in ways that maximize your tax avoidance

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reignofevil
Nov 7, 2008
Just always be losing money bing bing bong.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

poisonpill posted:

I’d love an effortpost on how to trade in the US in ways that maximize your tax avoidance

live in puerto rico

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

ketchup vs catsup posted:

Please explain. Am I buying and selling spy calls and puts like a sucker?

Look into “section 1256 contracts.”

Basically, if you sling the future (or the futures options) instead of the ETF you get your gains treated as if they’re 60% long term and 40% short term, even if you only held them for five minutes.

The catch is that your position is marked to market at the end of the year for tax purposes... but if you’re just day or swing trading that shouldn’t matter.

TheKevman
Dec 13, 2003
I thought Mad Max: Fury Road was
:mediocre:
so you should probably ignore anything else I say

2724, Bob!

Let's do this next week as well so I can guess 2502! This week number go up next week not enough brrr in the world!

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
3000

jokes
Dec 20, 2012

Uh... Kupo?

2368!

ranbo das
Oct 16, 2013


2798

Bored As Fuck
Jan 1, 2006
Fun Shoe
If it goes to 5000 can we call Jerome Fedman 5000?

Edit:

Or Powman 5000?

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

https://twitter.com/THR/status/1249048080508506113

DIS go up?

latinotwink1997
Jan 2, 2008

Taste my Ball of Hope, foul dragon!


2468

Dorstein
Dec 8, 2000
GIP VSO
SPX 2789.83

Price is Right!

Come on down!

John F Bennett
Jan 30, 2013

I always wear my wedding ring. It's my trademark.

2875 this week and ATH end of July. 1500 in September.

Moatman
Mar 21, 2014

Because the goof is all mine.
$2495

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
2569!

leper khan
Dec 28, 2010
Honest to god thinks Half Life 2 is a bad game. But at least he likes Monster Hunter.
2742

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

2669 (nice)

Sepist
Dec 26, 2005

FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS

Gravy Boat 2k

Inner Light posted:

Does that mean /ES is like SPXS and SPXL? That's what I use for leveraged money losing.

The 3x ETFs aim for $3 on every $1 the underlying move, /ES is $50 for every $1. /ES is super dangerous though. I've both lost and made over 10k in the span of a half hour when volatility is like it currently is

E: 2499 is my SPX guess

Sepist fucked around with this message at 14:07 on Apr 12, 2020

AtomicSX
Jan 10, 2007

If the average pay is 20/hr, they'd be saving $34M/wk in wages of you assume they average 40hr/wk per employee. Worst case I see WDW being closed until mid June so 8-10 weeks from now would be ~$300-350M total saved but that number is dwarfed by their park revenue when it's open.

I'm planning buy moderately OTM July / August puts on the next upswing and holding through earnings next month. I'm also keeping an eye on how many companies postpone earnings reporting for Q1 and if DIS would push theirs out at all.

For SPX low this week, I'll guess 2675.

Jack Daniels
Nov 14, 2002

current:

Only registered members can see post attachments!

John F Bennett
Jan 30, 2013

I always wear my wedding ring. It's my trademark.

There's a prize? I hope it's a free penny stock.

Residency Evil
Jul 28, 2003

4/5 godo... Schumi
A quick terminology question since I'm not very familiar with options trading: is there a spread between buying a put/selling a call, and buying a call/selling a put? There's additional risk with selling options, just like with short selling regular equities, correct? Is that what a "naked" options are?

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


hmm, can we talk about portfolio strategies using leveraged funds, or market timing such as momentum-following, trend-following, or indicator-timing in this thread? it's not really stocks, but, I think the long-term investing thread would just screech and say "don't time the market, put everything in a target date fund or VTSAX" like usual and I don't see a better thread for this sort of chat.

I went down a rabbit hole last night and found all sorts of interesting things on the bogleheads forum, of all places:

PSLDX, a leveraged fund with options and treasuries:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=305950&p=5166016
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/stocksplus-long-duration-fund/inst
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psldx/quote

NTSX, another leveraged balanced fund of equities/bonds
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=302218

combining UPRO and TMF as a pair of leveraged ETFs:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192

It seems that if you have a risk management component via treasuries, then these leveraged tactics are quite effective. One possible future challenge for them is if there is stagflation/hyperinflation and significant fed funds rate increases. But, that's an entirely different discussion.

Here's an example backtest of UPRO/TMF and PSLDX compared to total stock:

Combining one of those with a risk-off timing strategy based on VIX might be really interesting.

Anyone here ever use or investigate an approach or funds like mentioned above?

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

pmchem posted:

hmm, can we talk about portfolio strategies using leveraged funds, or market timing such as momentum-following, trend-following, or indicator-timing in this thread? it's not really stocks, but, I think the long-term investing thread would just screech and say "don't time the market, put everything in a target date fund or VTSAX" like usual and I don't see a better thread for this sort of chat.

I went down a rabbit hole last night and found all sorts of interesting things on the bogleheads forum, of all places:

Ah, the risk parity strategy. See if you can find some charts that include the last few weeks.

It produced one of the more recent notable WSB blowouts:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/flhb0d/i_failed_my_portfolio_margin_call_final_damage/

pmchem
Jan 22, 2010


Agronox posted:

Ah, the risk parity strategy. See if you can find some charts that include the last few weeks.

It produced one of the more recent notable WSB blowouts:

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/flhb0d/i_failed_my_portfolio_margin_call_final_damage/

It's easy enough to test:
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com...llocation2_1=45

YTD the strategy, with monthly rebalancing, is only down 6.58%. Notably, the bogleheads thread OP does not suggest doing this on margin, which is what the wsb guy did and led to his margin call mess.

Agronox
Feb 4, 2005

Residency Evil posted:

A quick terminology question since I'm not very familiar with options trading: is there a spread between buying a put/selling a call, and buying a call/selling a put?

Sorry, your use of "spread" does not make much sense in this context--what do you mean?

quote:

There's additional risk with selling options, just like with short selling regular equities, correct? Is that what a "naked" options are?

Depending on what the position is, selling options can increase or decrease risk. A "naked" (as opposed to "covered") option is one in which, if it were exercised against you, would mean that you'd now have a position (whether long or short) in the underlying.

That might be unclear, so an example.

a) I write one call on AMZN. It's exercised against me. As a result I am now short 100 shares of AMZN. This is writing a naked call. (Doing this, incidentally, requires the very highest level of options trading clearance because it can result in theoretically infinite loss.)

b) I own 100 shares and write one call on AMZN. It's exercised against me. As a result, I have no position in AMZN (as my shares were called away and sold to the option buyer). This is writing a covered call and is the very lowest level of options trading clearance.

Writing a covered put would be selling a put on something which you are already short the shares. It can get more complicated when you start looking at things like vertical spreads, etc., but that's the rough idea.

Sepist
Dec 26, 2005

FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS

Gravy Boat 2k

pmchem posted:

hmm, can we talk about portfolio strategies using leveraged funds, or market timing such as momentum-following, trend-following, or indicator-timing in this thread? it's not really stocks, but, I think the long-term investing thread would just screech and say "don't time the market, put everything in a target date fund or VTSAX" like usual and I don't see a better thread for this sort of chat.

I went down a rabbit hole last night and found all sorts of interesting things on the bogleheads forum, of all places:

PSLDX, a leveraged fund with options and treasuries:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=305950&p=5166016
https://www.pimco.com/en-us/investments/mutual-funds/stocksplus-long-duration-fund/inst
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/psldx/quote

NTSX, another leveraged balanced fund of equities/bonds
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=302218

combining UPRO and TMF as a pair of leveraged ETFs:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=288192

It seems that if you have a risk management component via treasuries, then these leveraged tactics are quite effective. One possible future challenge for them is if there is stagflation/hyperinflation and significant fed funds rate increases. But, that's an entirely different discussion.

Here's an example backtest of UPRO/TMF and PSLDX compared to total stock:

Combining one of those with a risk-off timing strategy based on VIX might be really interesting.

Anyone here ever use or investigate an approach or funds like mentioned above?

I recently got into risk parity myself. I ended up subscribing to David Allan Carters investment strategies. He has one called The White Knuckle which leverages SPXL, TQQQ, and TMF with a volatility hedge in EUO and other currencies. The historical returns from 2008 were pretty significant. He explains when to switch to risk-off but you can just do it yourself by looking at the VIX futures, although they were caught with their pants down by the 'rona

E: there's another one called RPAR on the exchange, I haven't looked into it much but it looks like it weathered the storm well enough

Sepist fucked around with this message at 15:43 on Apr 12, 2020

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1249258356306403329

Looks like oil production levels are still in flux.

nightbae smokewheat
Feb 11, 2011

Jack Daniels posted:

hey re-reg guy: this the 2nd time you';ve mentioned my post count in the stock trading thread. settle down

Accretionist
Nov 7, 2012
I BELIEVE IN STUPID CONSPIRACY THEORIES

My brain's gambling center says 2618.

crazypeltast52
May 5, 2010



2776

SirPablo
May 1, 2004

Pillbug

Put the average in there as well, cause that'll likely be the correct answer. Power of the goons!

GoGoGadgetChris
Mar 18, 2010

i powder a
granite monument
in a soundless flash

showering the grass
with molten drops of
its gold inlay

sending smoking
chips of stone
skipping into the fog
As the winner of the Call the Bottom contest (until the organizer modified the rules so they could be the winner, tale as old as time) I should probably sit this one out to ensure everyone gets a taste of victory

But you're all wrong, and woefully pessimistic

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

2400

mr.belowaverage
Aug 16, 2004

we have an irc channel at #SA_MeetingWomen
2750

Freezer
Apr 20, 2001

The Earth is the cradle of the mind, but one cannot stay in the cradle forever.

GoGoGadgetChris posted:

As the winner of the Call the Bottom contest (until the organizer modified the rules so they could be the winner, tale as old as time) I should probably sit this one out to ensure everyone gets a taste of victory

But you're all wrong, and woefully pessimistic

After a +14% week , a third of people are predicting another all green week. I'd hardly call that pessimistic.

saintonan
Dec 7, 2009

Fields of glory shine eternal

The contest is predicting the low for the week, not a high or a closing value. The guesses should be somewhat low.

MomJeans420
Mar 19, 2007



I'm making a shitbet of 2300

Airflamer
Jan 21, 2012

wow that story was super amazingly awesome, im not even joking right now

Grimey Drawer
2390

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skipdogg
Nov 29, 2004
Resident SRT-4 Expert

2610

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