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Katt posted:That probably something like 30-40k Swedes are infected doesn't make things sound any better even if the mortality rate drops. The specific number of infected is not really relevant by itself, the relevant thing is just that the number of infected is at a level that our medical system can cope with, and so far it is, despite a 10% case mortality rate so far. Our countries can't escape it long term and it will likely infect most of us before a vaccine can be developed so slowing the spread to a manageable level while protecting risk groups is the best we can do atm. This is basically the strategy all over the world, countries only differ in how they try to manage the spread.
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Apr 9, 2020 21:19
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https://www.instagram.com/p/B-oPOQbAH-z/
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Apr 9, 2020 21:52
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Trying to social distance but people at the grocery store still build human walls at every bottleneck possible. Then I have to shove people out of the way to reach the orange juice because someone opened the fridge door and then parked their cart in front of it while they ogle the milk free milk.
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Apr 9, 2020 22:23
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Star posted:Some of them seem to want that too https://www.instagram.com/p/B-qxb37gAUA/ https://twitter.com/infinite_scream/status/1248432700010065923?s=20
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Apr 10, 2020 03:11
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Katt posted:Trying to social distance but people at the grocery store still build human walls at every bottleneck possible. Then I have to shove people out of the way to reach the orange juice because someone opened the fridge door and then parked their cart in front of it while they ogle the milk free milk. It doesn't help that modern supermarket "design" is heavily based on using behavioristics and nudging to create bottlenecks, funnels and blocked passages. It's a lost cause to implement non-atrocious social distancing without redesigning the aisles and layout to cater to human needs rather maximizing the chance of winning the battle against human impulse controls and making impossible to do a quick grab and run. These manipulative and highly annoying places manage to be awful not merely when full, but even completely empty, they're a pain to navigate. Zudgemud posted:The specific number of infected is not really relevant by itself, the relevant thing is just that the number of infected is at a level that our medical system can cope with, and so far it is, despite a 10% case mortality rate so far. Our countries can't escape it long term and it will likely infect most of us before a vaccine can be developed so slowing the spread to a manageable level while protecting risk groups is the best we can do atm. This is basically the strategy all over the world, countries only differ in how they try to manage the spread. That's not the strategy in New Zealand, Vietnam, South Korea and many other places. It's a bullshit excuse given by authorities who have given up. "Oh but we have to let it infect everyone": No we dont'. Herd immunity is not proven for this virus. Many viruses don't work like that. Denmark and Norway had R0 below 1, which is the requirement to eliminate the virus nationally, and we should gone that route. Yes, we'll get reinfections. Yes, it sucks to fight round 2, 3, 4, + against this. But it's very possible that we'll have to fight those anyway, even after "controlled" spread (good luck controlled the spread of a virus with an R0 mean of 5.7). We'll just be doing it with even more poo poo economy, public health and morale than the ones who didn't give up. Any developed country that tried to tell citizens that it's not possible to fight this has incompetent and/or craven health authorities. There are third world countries who can't fight this because they have no public health care and corrupt politicians running the show. But unlike the US and the Central African Republic we have a choice to fight this. We need to do that if we're to have a chance at helping the developing world get back on their feet after this. Not just give up and piss away our chance at a good outcome. PederP fucked around with this message at 06:29 on Apr 10, 2020 |
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Apr 10, 2020 06:20
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On that matter: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/09/world/asia/coronavirus-hong-kong-singapore-taiwan.html The million kronor question that no one can answer is how long you need to keep quarantine and still have a functional post virus society. Cause waiting for a vaccine is at least 12 months away and at this point I kinda expect the virus to have run its course before then.
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Apr 10, 2020 09:23
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Cardiac posted:On that matter: You do what you need to do to squash the outbreak. The sooner you do that, the better. Trying to "re-open" while there is still contagion out there is insanity. It won't work. It will prolong the pain. It will make the inevitable shutdown harsher. This is not a thing where we can go "Aww, shucks! This has been bothering us for more than a month now, we gotta normalize. We can't wait for the vaccine! Let's just accept the losses and move on.". I don't think people realize the kind of damage this does to a society and an economy if it is not contained. Economic damage from giving up on containment is worse than damage from containment. But the damage to the social fabric is the real killer. If you let the medical sector collapse and have 10%, 5%, heck even 1% dead + the overflow from untreated other medical emergencies - that's going to completely break public trust in government, and lead to civil unrest, populism and authoritarianism. We're not 'waiting for a vaccine'. We need to fight the pandemic. Test, trace and isolate. Find ways to function as a society while keeping R0 below 1. That's going to suck. But the current mass delusion where we pretend we can reopen and go back to normal is going to backfire. Hard. Copenhagen is heading towards a real bad time. All because of populist politicians blaming the economical downturn on the lockdown, and pretending we can easily cope with this virus and go back to normal - just gotta wash those hands and keep a bit of distance. The million kroner question is not how long we need to keep fighting this. The question is how much have we set ourselves back by not doing the right thing from the start, and even worse done the completely opposite as we transition into the second phase of the pandemic. We're going to pay for the kowtowing to commercial lobbyism, our inept health authorities and the most disgustingly opportunistic opposition I've ever seen. We're not waiting for anything. Really smart people across the globe are fighting hard to improve treatment and to develop a vaccine. We're manning the walls of a siege, to buy more time for those people. Hopefully the breakthroughs in treatment will make the fight easier until the vaccine arrives. There is a real strong chance this virus isn't something that will "run its course". China would have let it do just that if it was an option. We have no choice but to accept the hardships that come with fighting this thing. I know Danes are used to simply surrendering when the price becomes too high - but what worked when the Third Reich came knocking won't work this time around. People are going to die because our leaders are too craven to admit what we're up against. PederP fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Apr 10, 2020 |
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Apr 10, 2020 11:17
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Vietnam has apparently successfully contained the outbreak and so far had zero COVID-19 deaths by following WHO guidelines to a T. Denmark has fought the WHO every step of the way. I hope people remember where to direct their anger when this poo poo goes off the rails in a few weeks.
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Apr 10, 2020 11:32
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I know this isn't in Scandinavia, but WTF is going on in Belgium? Seen nothing special about it on the news but looks like they are doing terribly. Emailed an old friend there to see if he's OK but haven't heard back. :-(
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Apr 10, 2020 11:34
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SplitSoul posted:Vietnam has apparently successfully contained the outbreak and so far had zero COVID-19 deaths by following WHO guidelines to a T. Denmark has fought the WHO every step of the way. They'll blame their fellow peons. The ones who did more socializing than themselves. "Oh, it was all you people at the supermarket not doing as you were told!". "Those darn Easter family dinners". "It was muslims and their funerals". "It was you people running in the park!". "It was those private parties the young ones had!". "It was people from the city coming to the country for holidays". Health authorities and the government will say they did their best from the information at hand, that they didn't have the full picture of X Y and Z before now, etc. And everyone will applaud them for trying to reopen Denmark even if they failed. "It would have worked if we'd all just been better at doing as we're told - especially those other people I don't like". I hope I'm wrong and we do get better leadership soon. But I'm not optimistic. Clayton Bigsby posted:I know this isn't in Scandinavia, but WTF is going on in Belgium? Seen nothing special about it on the news but looks like they are doing terribly. Emailed an old friend there to see if he's OK but haven't heard back. :-( https://www.brusselstimes.com/ https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/ http://www.flanderstoday.eu/ Better than some. Worse than others. Considering how dysfunctional Belgium tends to be as a state (ie government crises, Flemish nationalism/separatism) I had expected a complete meltdown. I was also worried about Brussels doing to it being a massive international hub, but it seems to be less affected than other such hubs. PederP fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Apr 10, 2020 |
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Apr 10, 2020 11:43
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Are we really going to go ahead with gradually reopening everything in Norway from the 20th onwards? So far things have apparently been kept comparatively well under control here with restrictions that are pretty mild compared to a lot of places, it seems bizarre at a time when the virus is really only ramping up in Europe to release those restrictions entirely.
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Apr 10, 2020 12:54
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We'll open everything and see how it goes. Sure a few more thousand may die
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Apr 10, 2020 13:06
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PederP posted:We need to fight the pandemic. Test, trace and isolate. Find ways to function as a society while keeping R0 below 1. You make it sound like there are nations who are actually trying to eliminate the virus. I haven't heard of anywhere attempting this, nor does it sound realistic to maintain a society while keeping R0 below 1.
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Apr 10, 2020 13:14
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Mata posted:You make it sound like there are nations who are actually trying to eliminate the virus. I haven't heard of anywhere attempting this, nor does it sound realistic to maintain a society while keeping R0 below 1. New Zealand, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, possibly more. It's what WHO is recommending. It's absurd how anyone can look at China and the conclude "There must be a different solution, which is better for the economy, but has a slightly higher cost in human life". If China could trade human lives for a better collective outcome, they would do it and not blink twice. It's hubris by western countries to claim "It's impossible to eliminate the virus. We can control this better than the CCP.". No, you can't. It's containment until stabilization, then elimination through testing, tracing and quarantine. There's no other solution which does not end with social breakdown and mass mortality.
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Apr 10, 2020 14:13
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https://twitter.com/TV4Sport/status/1248545314614718464
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Apr 10, 2020 18:59
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PederP posted:New Zealand, Vietnam, South Korea, Taiwan, China, possibly more. It's what WHO is recommending. It's absurd how anyone can look at China and the conclude "There must be a different solution, which is better for the economy, but has a slightly higher cost in human life". If China could trade human lives for a better collective outcome, they would do it and not blink twice. It's hubris by western countries to claim "It's impossible to eliminate the virus. We can control this better than the CCP.". No, you can't. It's containment until stabilization, then elimination through testing, tracing and quarantine. There's no other solution which does not end with social breakdown and mass mortality. Maybe western countries are less concerned with the collective outcome than China? Maybe we care more about the outcome for certain classes of people instead?
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Apr 10, 2020 22:09
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PederP posted:That's not the strategy in New Zealand, Vietnam, South Korea and many other places. It's a bullshit excuse given by authorities who have given up. "Oh but we have to let it infect everyone": No we dont'. Herd immunity is not proven for this virus. Many viruses don't work like that. Denmark and Norway had R0 below 1, which is the requirement to eliminate the virus nationally, and we should gone that route. Yes, we'll get reinfections. Yes, it sucks to fight round 2, 3, 4, + against this. But it's very possible that we'll have to fight those anyway, even after "controlled" spread (good luck controlled the spread of a virus with an R0 mean of 5.7). We'll just be doing it with even more poo poo economy, public health and morale than the ones who didn't give up. But we are fighting it? This is what managing the spread means? We are just not likely to completely eradicate the virus from the population and we will get reinfections over time as the virus mutates at a relatively high rate. Currently the R0 of
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Apr 11, 2020 01:44
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On the upside. The 11 people on Greenland with Corona have all recovered. Greenland is now Corona free.
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Apr 11, 2020 08:10
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The Queen doesn't believe climate change is anthropogenic. She reads history books, you see.
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Apr 11, 2020 11:07
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SplitSoul posted:The Queen doesn't believe climate change is anthropogenic. She reads history books, you see.
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Apr 11, 2020 13:02
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fascinating P1 documentary about the civil defense and how it disappeared. yes, I'm going on about this again, I think it's super interesting
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Apr 11, 2020 20:45
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This is so dumb - people are going to die because Danish authorities assume everyone will follow guidelines to the letter. They're completely ignorant of how all across the country people are starting to get not just sloppy, but downright refuse to comply with guidelines and rules. The government and health authorities are so worried about causing panic that they've lied about capacity (it's 300 to 450 intensive care units, not 900 to 1200), they've downplayed the worst case scenarios and lied to healthcare personnel to avoid staffing issues. That leads the stupid opposition parties and lobby organizations demanding immediate normalization of everything and the population at large starting to turn into flubros en masse. Meanwhile they're completely bungling the communication about the reopening of childcare and schools, causing mass uncertainty and strife in the population as camps form around various stances. People are talking openly about how our strategy is probably herd immunity, despite this being denied by authorities. Now it's too late to make people understand the danger, despite what's happening around the world. The prime minister will probably go on TV and speak stern words, but yet comfort everyone that we'll be allright. Then we'll have a horrible rebound, initially dismissed as "now it's topping out", and be forced into even more extreme lockdown. Argh. This is so dumb.
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Apr 12, 2020 22:29
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Especially love those who point to Sweden as how it should have been handled. Incredible. Must be reading different stats than me.
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Apr 12, 2020 23:09
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SplitSoul posted:Especially love those who point to Sweden as how it should have been handled. Incredible. Must be reading different stats than me. Look, being beaten by Sweden has never gone over well with the Danish public. That they're losing on number go up is even worse. That said number is Covid deaths is immaterial.
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Apr 13, 2020 00:14
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Danes yet to recover their honour after the "March Across the Belts" Where a rag tag band of Swedish ruffians. Newly kicked out of Poland meandered into the country from the south and accidentally invaded the Danish capital. Causing Denmark to surrender instantly WW2 style and hand over everything the Swedes wanted.
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Apr 13, 2020 06:25
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PederP posted:Meanwhile they're completely bungling the communication about the reopening of childcare and schools, causing mass uncertainty and strife in the population as camps form around various stances. People are talking openly about how our strategy is probably herd immunity, despite this being denied by authorities. The long term strategy is always going to be herd immunity. If you don’t develop antibodies towards Corona, you are not going to develop antibodies towards an vaccine either. Which would make the search for a vaccine pointless. The aim with quarantine is to reduce the rate of infection so that emergency services don’t get overwhelmed and allowing societies to prepare. Most people are going to get corona, many won’t realize they got it and we need to protect the most vulnerable. Also, from Wikipedia, with a R0 of 2.5 the level for herd immunity threshold is 60%, for 5 the level is 80%. Interestingly, measles has R0=12-18 making the level 92-95%. The simplistic equation breaks down at R0<=1.
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Apr 13, 2020 06:31
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Katt posted:Danes yet to recover their honour after the "March Across the Belts" Where a rag tag band of Swedish ruffians. Newly kicked out of Poland meandered into the country from the south and accidentally invaded the Danish capital. Causing Denmark to surrender instantly WW2 style and hand over everything the Swedes wanted. Not really. Sweden tried storming Copenhagen but got their noses blooded in the assault and the Danish Navy was a thing. However, Sweden had free rein in the countryside which during this time was a BAD thing (Sweden depopulated the south of Germany and Czechia with up 25% of the population dead due to rape, pillage and starvation). Took the Danes less than 10 years to make a comeback that resulted in the bloodbath (on both sides) at the battle of Lund.
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Apr 13, 2020 06:40
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Cardiac posted:Not really. More like the battle of Lul-nd
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Apr 13, 2020 07:09
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Katt posted:Danes yet to recover their honour after the "March Across the Belts" Where a rag tag band of Swedish ruffians, Newly kicked out of Poland
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Apr 13, 2020 08:21
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Cardiac posted:The long term strategy is always going to be herd immunity. If you don’t develop antibodies towards Corona, you are not going to develop antibodies towards an vaccine either. Which would make the search for a vaccine pointless. We never got herd immunity to polio and smallpox. Vaccines eradicated those. "Natural" herd immunity is far from given. We have no clue how SARS Mk2 will play out if we allow it to spread slowly - but from agricultural animal husbandry we know that slow spread of viral disease is the sure way to *not* get herd immunity. Farmers make sure all their animals get infected at once - then those wikipedia values apply regarding R0 and herd immunity. They do not apply if it the spread is slowed down to last years. You get a much more complex problem in that case, where the immunological profile matters a whole lot more than it does with instant full-population infection or vaccination. Maybe we're lucky and SARS Mk2 is suitable for that kind of slow-roll herd immunity. But it's wildly irresponsible to just hope it's going to work out that way. Even the Chinese CCP, who are perfectly onboard with utilitarian ethics are not taking that risk. PederP fucked around with this message at 11:16 on Apr 13, 2020 |
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Apr 13, 2020 11:10
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I just had an idea. We invite all the soon to be vast legions of recovered young Americans up to their ears in medical debt to, in return for a citizenship, come to Scandinavia to take care of logistics while we hide away at home. This is probably the most practical plan for smothering this outbreak, and there's even a humanitarian side to it.
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Apr 13, 2020 14:37
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And then we'll let out all the gorillas, who'll eat the Americans, just in time for winter to freeze them to death! Perfect!
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Apr 13, 2020 14:42
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There’s a ton of Americans here who’d let them know about it You could say They’re in this thread
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Apr 13, 2020 15:04
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It's simply astounding that they want at-risk groups, even those with auto-immune disorders, the chronically ill, pregnant, whatever, to participate in the re-opening experiment. And they do it just after Easter, where people have been unable to get a hold of their doctors for obvious reasons. Nurseries and daycares can't get wage compensation or temps covered, because Sundhedsstyrelsen is like
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Apr 13, 2020 15:07
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SplitSoul posted:It's simply astounding that they want at-risk groups, even those with auto-immune disorders, the chronically ill, pregnant, whatever, to participate in the re-opening experiment. And they do it just after Easter, where people have been unable to get a hold of their doctors for obvious reasons. Nurseries and daycares can't get wage compensation or temps covered, because Sundhedsstyrelsen is like I just read that Folketinget has not been given a prognosis for the expected number of mortalities for each of the three scenarios. Apparently, the government and/or health authorities are pretending that this cannot be modeled and it's fine to just make decisions based on ICU usage... Pretty sure that not keeping the expected death count (which I'm 100% sure exists in the non-public model output) internal is against the law. Keeping important facts from Folketinget is a big no-no. They drat well know that people would be up in arms if the prognosis didn't say mean ICU usage = 264, but expected deaths with COVID-19 = X thousand. People would be "ARE THOSE OUR CHILDREN INCREASING THE DEATH COUNT???" and they'd have to say "No, don't worry, it's almost exclusively among the weak/old care and teaching staff, with a bit of grandparent collateral damage". It's a travesty that they're keeping death numbers out of the scenarios because people would be asking about the demographics, and they'd have to admit that sending out risk group care personnel is not safe. There would not be an increased ICU usage if it was. Both of the following cannot be true: 1) Risk of infection is no greater at school/daycare/high school than in the rest of society (which is the official policy). 2) Opening daycare, schools and high schools will increase the number of ICU beds in use. The only way that can be true - is if the increased infection frequency is evenly distributed throughout society, which is what the model states explicitly is not the case, as one of the few pieces of information they do share about it.
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Apr 13, 2020 15:45
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Cardiac posted:The long term strategy is always going to be herd immunity. Cardiac posted:If you don’t develop antibodies towards Corona, you are not going to develop antibodies towards an vaccine either. Which would make the search for a vaccine pointless.
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Apr 13, 2020 16:01
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It's almost like it's really dumb having the same organization be responsible for 1) Creating the guidelines as to who are at risk, who is allowed to isolate and how to cope with the pandemic. 2) Keeping hospitals running at maximum efficiency, minimum cost and with no staffing issues. 3) Approving treatment protocols and medication. 4) Keeping expenses for medication and treatment at a minimum. In a US context it's the equivalent of exchanging Dr Fauci for the CEO of a private healthcare provider. New public management has birthed organizational heads every bit as cutthroat and sociopathic as the corporate aristocracy, they were created to emulate.
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Apr 13, 2020 16:28
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SplitSoul posted:Especially love those who point to Sweden as how it should have been handled. Incredible. Must be reading different stats than me. Ambulances have to wait in queues for two and half hour before they can get into a hospital. 
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Apr 13, 2020 17:06
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PederP posted:Keeping important facts from Folketinget is a big no-no. *laughs in Inger Støjberg* At least Copenhagen and three other municipalities are going against Sundhedsstyrelsen and advising that children from confirmed COVID-19 households should stay home.
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Apr 13, 2020 19:07
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It makes a lot of sense to reopen kindergarten and allow children to get infected, because like the expendable retired they aren't economically productive in any case and kindergarten staff are worthless without children to teach. Actually most people don't reach their highest earnings until their fifties, so we might as well send everyone below that age back to work as normal; sacrificing them in the name of keeping the real drivers of the economy safe is just smart governance. Honestly just execute anyone with an income below 10 million NOK per year, that should increase both average earnings and GDP per capita plenty and put Norway well ahead of the curve in terms of economic recovery. Someone give Erna my number, I've figured it all out.
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Apr 13, 2020 21:29
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