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/CL down 6.6% on the day, but, OPEC+ had a fallback plan all along: https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1250114694964113409?s=20
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Apr 14, 2020 18:34
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enraged_camel posted:I didn't say that. Of course, in a long enough timeline, the S&P will probably go past 3400. The question we have, for the purposes of this thread (which is about playing the relatively short-term fluctuations) is what that timeline is. I think we're probably arguing a bit past each other then; the last bullish position I got without an expiration date was buying some UNIT on 4/6. I doubt we're going to be tracing a noisy line toward 340 from here, and think there is a drop in store. But a substantial portion of the purchases at and past 280 are doing so because of a belief that on the timeline of years, 280 is an inexpensive price and that the amount of time it'll be under a buy in now is acceptable. They might be wrong too, but you can't move the high-cap market index solely on FOMO.
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Apr 14, 2020 18:35
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FreelanceSocialist posted:The Mouse is bouncing as well. Time for more puts. Earnings call is 5/13. I grabbed 5/22 $100 yesterday and today. Good luck. It's tempting but I'm leaning towards not screwing with the mouse anymore. have they committed to that earnings call? I can see them trying to push things out 45 days in hopes of better news. I told myself July puts would be safer, but the premiums are like uh.
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Apr 14, 2020 18:41
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I'm guessing many players conclude that zero/negative rates and QE will also remain in place for a long time, thus diminishing downside risk of big companies actually going bankrupt - And also making other investment options unappealing in contrast.
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Apr 14, 2020 18:50
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Yah, I'm starting to anticipate this entire earnings season is gonna be "yah its been a little rough but we will bounce right back in two weeks when the economy opens again soooooo" Three days till a good chunk of my puts expire, should have sold em yesterday I guess, damnit.
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Apr 14, 2020 18:51
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pmchem posted:/CL down 6.6% on the day, but, OPEC+ had a fallback plan all along: Excited for when these pirates find out in a couple of weeks that including storage fees their booty has negative value
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Apr 14, 2020 18:53
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skipdogg posted:Good luck. It's tempting but I'm leaning towards not screwing with the mouse anymore. have they committed to that earnings call? I can see them trying to push things out 45 days in hopes of better news. I told myself July puts would be safer, but the premiums are like uh. I think that there's a chance they delay it but I believe that, for my purposes, delaying the call will have the same effect on the stock price as having it as scheduled. I think we're headed back to $95 or below either way.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:05
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Tokyo Sex Whale posted:Excited for when these pirates find out in a couple of weeks that including storage fees their booty has negative value Sounds like they just figured it out: https://twitter.com/katiemcque/status/1250122796392382464
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Apr 14, 2020 19:11
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Rally based I guess on declining hospitalizations in NYC and vague chatter about "reopening the economy." Meanwhile on main street... https://twitter.com/stormcrowtavern/status/1250107731307978754?s=20 First major successful retail business in my town that straight up is not coming back. Probably going to see a lot more of this. (thankfully it's not their entire business, as they have another location, but even still...) Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 19:27
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I knew that some of the restaurant/hotel/leisure stuff would have a huge bear bounce but I never would have guessed the entire market would come ripping back this fast... it really is crazy. I still travel for work and airports/hotels/airplanes are literally empty. All of the adjacent businesses are dead in the water. Its really a wild time. The numbers China put out today are complete horse poo poo, they should be shunned on the world stage.
greasyhands fucked around with this message at 19:33 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 19:30
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The little family-owned thai place in my town is literally soliciting loans from customers to try to make it through this because they have not been able to get any type of SBA loan or grant and it's apparently impossible to get traditional loans right now.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:31
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greasyhands posted:I knew that some of the restaurant/hotel/leisure stuff would have a huge bear bounce but I never would have guessed the entire market would come ripping back this fast... it really is crazy. I still travel for work and airports/hotels/airplanes are literally empty. All of the adjacent businesses are dead in the water. Its really a wild time. The numbers China put out today are complete horse poo poo, they should be shunned on the world stage. EAT is still available for the same price it was 10 or 20 years ago (gotta love these per-decade crashes) if you want in on some baby back ribs at 33% of recent highs.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:43
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What's the over/under on the number of frackers that go kaput before the OPEC+ deal has any meaningful effect at all?
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Apr 14, 2020 19:47
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I mean, I just sold out of EAT yesterday morning before it dumped so Im good for now
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Apr 14, 2020 19:47
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greasyhands posted:All of the adjacent businesses are dead in the water. Its really a wild time. There is such an absurd disconnect between the markets and reality at the moment.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:55
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Had 3.48 of premium of my own money left in calls. Rolled from 281 -> 287 for 3.41, so now I got me some 7 cent calls expiring in 13 days that we'll see where they go.
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Apr 14, 2020 19:58
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My work deals in 99% elective surgeries and 1% emergency. We're dead in the water. We have doctors begging to reopen surgeries. They're not sure how they will make their upcoming yacht payments. I wish I was joking.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:01
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Hit Man posted:My work deals in 99% elective surgeries and 1% emergency. We're dead in the water. Wife's hospital is the same. Admin has fingers crossed for a bailout.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:08
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Anybody in the habit of holding SPY overnight? I’ve been screwed on each positive day since I haven’t had the balls to hold overnight. Which is exactly why my retirement accounts have been outperforming my gambling one. Inner Light fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 20:16
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the candle hour approacheth
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Apr 14, 2020 20:19
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enraged_camel posted:the candle hour approacheth Betting red then leaking upward.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:21
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S&P opened up off yesterday's close and never dropped much below 2800; MOC volume will be unbalanced buy side, 3:50 candle will be green.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:24
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:S&P opened up off yesterday's close and never dropped much below 2800; MOC volume will be unbalanced buy side, 3:50 candle will be green. sounds smart, so I'll agree. Green Dongs.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:26
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https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1250108946356088832
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Apr 14, 2020 20:31
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Please don't make any bets off my predictions because I don't poo poo from gently caress I'm just writing poo poo down to see if I actually do have a vague handle on it
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Apr 14, 2020 20:32
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I'm going to predict the color of the candle by seeing if it's going up or down at :51
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Apr 14, 2020 20:40
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Market's been drifting upward since 3:30, so on the theory that the candle is generally a reversal of the trading pattern immediately preceding it, I'll guess red candle. Not trading on that guess, though.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:45
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:S&P opened up off yesterday's close and never dropped much below 2800; MOC volume will be unbalanced buy side, 3:50 candle will be green. agreed
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Apr 14, 2020 20:47
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saintonan posted:Market's been drifting upward since 3:30, so on the theory that the candle is generally a reversal of the trading pattern immediately preceding it, I'll guess red candle. Not trading on that guess, though.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:47
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I'll guess red candle as well since it's contrarian
Sepist fucked around with this message at 20:51 on Apr 14, 2020 |
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Apr 14, 2020 20:48
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I spent 10 minutes today looking for prior days where the market spent all day (above or below) VWAP and/or open. Candles were predictable on those days, reflecting unfilled orders that were going to be filled MOC. But I did not do this for every day since trading floors closed, and there are a lot of days where trading was choppy enough that a clean observation could not be made.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:49
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No candle today is my guess. First time in a while.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:49
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Initial spike was green ... then a lot of selling into it.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:50
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It's looking rreeegggrrrreeerrreeggrregggreeggg
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Apr 14, 2020 20:51
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https://twitter.com/JonathanCorpina/status/1250149690013822976?s=20
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Apr 14, 2020 20:52
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I don't poo poo from gently caress
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Apr 14, 2020 20:53
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Inner Light posted:Anybody in the habit of holding SPY overnight? Just empty quoting to see who's holding?
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Apr 14, 2020 20:53
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Inner Light posted:Just empty quoting to see who's holding? I've been net long equities since the end of March but I don't own any SPY
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Apr 14, 2020 20:54
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Looks like the algos might be doing a better job of smoothing it out. This is similar to yesterday's number but we had a big red candle where today was fairly tame. Alternatively, the buying from 3:20pm onward meant a lot of people who would be trading that already had long positions.
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Apr 14, 2020 20:55
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Didn't get much of a chance to trade today between conference calls and the baby. I feel like I'm experiencing some kind of financial dissonance that ending the day +$500 feels like I still lost somehow.
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Apr 14, 2020 21:05
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