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hot cocoa on the couch posted:ah okay it happens at Cushing, I should have figured. I could pay to pump, store and transport it at that price, but not all the way to Oklahoma I look forward to the updates on your Goon Oil empire lol https://twitter.com/zerobeta/status/1252302065604444162?s=20
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Apr 20, 2020 21:01
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That loving volume spike on USO in the last minute, wtf
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Apr 20, 2020 21:01
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Fuuuuuuuuck I forgot to buy SPY calls before close.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:05
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ketchup vs catsup posted:Fuuuuuuuuck I forgot to buy SPY
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Apr 20, 2020 21:08
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skipdogg posted:I look forward to the updates on your Goon Oil empire lol If anyone has archives, this thread is a good read from the last Goon Oil, Inc. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3590524
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Apr 20, 2020 21:08
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:I understand what you're saying but I have both profit exits and stop losses (at the same time through conditional orders) precisely to not be stuck holding severely depressed contracts on the off chance they'll recoup their value. Thats fine, i am not going to tell you how to trade but I will point out that you are missing the point if you think your expectations or calculations of fair value or whatever play a role in a market that has completely broken down. If you’re just going “id like to make 10% but lose no more than 5%” well thats fine, but you are pretty much guaranteed to lose money over time with that strategy. You’re using common sense in a market that is wildly stacked against you. Ive had this conversation a million times and its seriously like the monty hall problem- people just scratch their heads and refuse to disbelieve their intuition. Try thinking of it like this- a stop loss order is no different than any other sell order. Its just saying “i want to sell this security, but i dont want to sell it at the current price..... i want to sell it for cheaper”. That is logically what it is.... and if you think your broker doesnt pool info and share it with other institutions, I would encourage you to read the TOS.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:09
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Please walk me through why you were interested in puts. my reasoning on calls is "SPY's ending lower today, so calls have gotten cheaper, so buy those." I was planning on getting some 2+ months out.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:09
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greasyhands posted:Thats fine, i am not going to tell you how to trade but I will point out that you are missing the point if you think your expectations or calculations of fair value or whatever play a role in a market that has completely broken down. If you’re just going “id like to make 10% but lose no more than 5%” well thats fine, but you are pretty much guaranteed to lose money over time with that strategy. You’re using common sense in a market that is wildly stacked against you. Ive had this conversation a million times and its seriously like the monty hall problem- people just scratch their heads and refuse to disbelieve their intuition. I learned something obvious today thanks!
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Apr 20, 2020 21:11
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Shale financing has to be pretty shot to pieces now. Is there a big subprime thing lurking?
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Apr 20, 2020 21:12
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Megasabin posted:What does this mean? Something that some people consider in trading is unusual options volume. Having OTM options volume that exceeds open interest is notable and can suggest insider info or a position by one of the big boys. Same for large blocks of options bought shortly before expiration. A recent and likely civil/criminal violation was someone buying a ton of OTM GILD calls the day before expiration. That video got leaked, and I think the options went up by like 1,100%. On the other hand, big option volume can also just be a hedge and not mean anything. It’s just an interesting data point to consider.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:13
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God pretty loaded up on shorts today. XRT, FB, UBER, amongst others. All the meme stocks are decelerating, maybe NFLX tips things tomorrow night.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:13
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Ola posted:Shale financing has to be pretty shot to pieces now. Is there a big subprime thing lurking?
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Apr 20, 2020 21:18
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fougera posted:God pretty loaded up on shorts today. XRT, FB, UBER, amongst others. All the meme stocks are decelerating, maybe NFLX tips things tomorrow night. How long are you holding shorts? I'm uncomfortable holding overnight especially on margin.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:19
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Doing some way out of the box thinking here. Oil is currently experiencing a critical shortage of storage space, as outlined pretty well these past few pages. One of the last resorts is storing them in rail cars. There’s some ambiguity as to whether or not this is totally legal due to a variety of overlapping regulations, but I’m curious if some of those regs will be relaxed in the face of the crisis. If so, tank cars provide a readily available storage space, and almost every large oil refinery/production facility/etc is rail served. We might therefor see a spike in the demand of tank cars. Tank cars are almost entirely owned by leasing companies or privately by shippers. I don’t have stats on hand, but I’d bet it’s more the former than the latter. Companies to watch are Trinity (TRN), GATX (GATX), Greenbrier (GBX), and American Railcar Industries (ARII). While not a publicly traded, UTLX is another big one that’s owned by Marion, which is in turn owned by Berkshire Hathaway, who in turn owns the largest railroad in the country, BNSF. I’m not making any positions related to the above, just spitballing.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:27
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ketchup vs catsup posted:Please walk me through why you were interested in puts. I think we're going to see a loving trainwreck and am looking for a nice high point to buy puts. I realize that I'm starting to act like a permabear. But Astroturfed campaigns are trying to get everything opened back up again. The reports of covid contamination in food are growing. We still don't have adequate testing Second wave reports are coming in for EU. Okay, no travel with the EU, but have EU countries kept their borders open and that's why they got a second wave (no) No bullets left for bailing out the market this time
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Apr 20, 2020 21:27
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The old single-wall rail cars were used as storage last oil bust. Not sure how many are still around or if they’ve all been replaced by double walled cars now.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:33
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I think we're going to see a loving trainwreck and am looking for a nice high point to buy puts. I realize that I'm starting to act like a permabear. Same. My reasons for bearishness aren't exactly resolved so I'm not looking to sell my far-out puts. Might still gently caress up on timing it, but whatever.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:36
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Cnbc unironically (i think) running a cramer promo that says “i think the free market can solve this, i just hope the federal govt does everything in its power to expedite the process” talk about quotes for the books about end stage american capitalism
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Apr 20, 2020 21:42
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The "free market" lol.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:43
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greasyhands posted:Thats fine, i am not going to tell you how to trade but I will point out that you are missing the point if you think your expectations or calculations of fair value or whatever play a role in a market that has completely broken down. If you’re just going “id like to make 10% but lose no more than 5%” well thats fine, but you are pretty much guaranteed to lose money over time with that strategy. You’re using common sense in a market that is wildly stacked against you. Ive had this conversation a million times and its seriously like the monty hall problem- people just scratch their heads and refuse to disbelieve their intuition. Just FYI I'm 100% aware you have a lot more trading experience than me and I find all this super interesting. I understand what you're saying, but I guess I must be misunderstanding your point because the only possible way to trade under your ethos would be 100% plugged to your trading window at all times and setting your limits at the last possible second, and/buying only contracts that you're willing to hold until the last possible second. On a personal note, looking back over my trades during the past few months, whatever money I've made from hitting home runs I've lost it through bag-holding expired options where I didn't put in stop losses because "it could still turn around".
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Apr 20, 2020 21:46
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Ola posted:Anyone in on the big oil tanker contango train? I had let myself slip pretty heavily into it, but the Gilead thing made me lose a few hours' sleep so I closed most of it. Pretty weird to be long Putin, long corona, short the normal world and feel bad about things maybe returning to normal. Tankers are making shitloads of money right now and will probably pay nice dividends next quarter but who the hell knows where the stocks will be. Just to follow up... which ones are you in? Turned into a good day for team tanker.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:54
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Why don’t all those farmers dumping milk down the drain just start storing oil in those tanks? I’m sure it won’t cause any problems when they go back to storing milk in there.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:55
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Ur Getting Fatter posted:Just FYI I'm 100% aware you have a lot more trading experience than me and I find all this super interesting. If you are trying to trade in and out of securities at 5% margins, yup you need to be there. Thats what it means to be a trader. If you don’t want to do that (totally understandable), dont try to flip 5% gains and losses- the guys who *are* there will eat your lunch. You can justify or explain your losses however your intellect allows you to, but losses are losses and until you’re making money over time your strategy is a losing strategy. How long you keep at it is up to you, I guess. If you’re trying to make daytrading make sense, you’re doing it wrong. Chaos reigns
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Apr 20, 2020 21:55
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skipdogg posted:The "free market" lol. The free market is the market where they give you money to take delivery of goods, right?
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Apr 20, 2020 21:56
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I think we're going to see a loving trainwreck and am looking for a nice high point to buy puts. I realize that I'm starting to act like a permabear. I agree things medium/long term have not reached the bottom. I've been doing very well (FAR better than in March/early April) buying calls on down SPY days, selling them 1-2 days later and buying similar puts and repeating, and I was planning on doing more of that until I replenish the losses from my earlier DIS/SYY/UBER puts that still stare at me on RH with their huge negative returns.
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Apr 20, 2020 21:57
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ketchup vs catsup posted:I agree things medium/long term have not reached the bottom. oh, yeah there might still be room on the order of days for making money on calls If we touch 2900 I'll probably be buying puts for July
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Apr 20, 2020 22:03
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VelociBacon posted:How long are you holding shorts? I'm uncomfortable holding overnight especially on margin. I'm doing both shorting and buying puts. I get its misleading but I'd rather just express my fundamental view to the thread shorthand and worry about explaining it later. I get the most value from this thread either taking feedback on the view or explaining to others who might ask. Ur Getting Fatter posted:Just FYI I'm 100% aware you have a lot more trading experience than me and I find all this super interesting. Yes. This is the only way to trade: bolted to the chair. You can't half rear end it. Have your price targets and max pain threshold in your head, and if you have to go elsewhere,. you better have alerts or be refreshing your apps constnatly. fougera fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 22:08
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Omerta posted:Something that some people consider in trading is unusual options volume. Having OTM options volume that exceeds open interest is notable and can suggest insider info or a position by one of the big boys. Same for large blocks of options bought shortly before expiration. There was also DoubleT2172 fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Apr 20, 2020 |
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Apr 20, 2020 22:10
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Dwight Eisenhower posted:I think we're going to see a loving trainwreck and am looking for a nice high point to buy puts. I realize that I'm starting to act like a permabear. Why not? The Fed can just continue injecting trillions, can't they?
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Apr 20, 2020 22:26
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I'm wondering if the fiscal crisis will feel more like a recession in Blue states and more like a depression in Red states? (Better testing and/or prepping from blue states a factor?)
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Apr 20, 2020 22:29
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enraged_camel posted:Why not? The Fed can just continue injecting trillions, can't they? Maybe not, and, maybe it doesn't keep number from going down. In terms of conventional interventions, there's nothing left. In terms of brrr, the routines for using that to prop up equities are going to get increasingly more complex
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Apr 20, 2020 22:32
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Grouchio posted:I'm wondering if the fiscal crisis will feel more like a recession in Blue states and more like a depression in Red states? (Better testing and/or prepping from blue states a factor?) I'm in Virginia and we're having a problem with testing. It's a blue state. Our governor is an MD. I have no clue what the impediments are to testing but I would imagine it's our bloated and ineffective federal apparatus.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:33
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Hmm... (from RobinTrack)  Where that green line goes vertical is today. Lot of RobinHooders piling into USO. I'm sure they know what they're doing.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:40
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And here's this fateful update. Entries in green are current leaders. Entries in red are mathematically eliminated. Contest ends on 12/31. YTD lows are based on the front month S&P and crude oil futures contracts. https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-futures https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil Congrats to Bob Dobbs Is Dead, who cannot lose the oil part of this unless poo poo REALLY hits the fan. -$40 a barrel. I still can't believe it. Dobbs actually called "in the negatives," which I translated to zero because I didn't think WTI futures COULD trade in the negatives.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:53
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LLCoolJD posted:I'm in Virginia and we're having a problem with testing. It's a blue state. Our governor is an MD. I have no clue what the impediments are to testing but I would imagine it's our bloated and ineffective federal apparatus. I'm pretty sure most of the problems we're dealing with now is because Trump wasted at least 2 months of time where we could have been ramping up production of PPE and ventilators, and invoking the DPA as soon as it was clear just increasing existing production wasn't going to cut it (and not just threatening to invoke the DPA, but actually using it). And failing to provide a strong federal response, and a strong unified message across all levels of govt - federal, state, and local. The problem with testing is Trump fails to see a problem with the level of testing we have now. We're not increasing capacity at all - he's bragging about millions of tests done, but the rate of testing is staying the same per day, and has stayed the same for WEEKS. He's simply bragging about the passage of time. He's not increasing capacity at all, and doesn't see a need to. States want help in increasing capacity (especially for antibody testing, a huge requirement for "opening the economy") but they don't have the money or capability- only the federal govt does. Trump has waffled from saying testing is the responsibility of the states, to saying that the federal government will help the states, to saying that the current capacity is fine and perfect, because the governors complained and wanted thousands of ventilators and hospital beds more than they needed (which were based on all of the models). Trump says that he's "happy they didn't need them," but at the same time says that because they asked for more than they needed on ventilators, the governors are wrong on testing capacity and everything's fine and perfect. Watching his daily press conferences is an exercise in patience. I go between yelling at the TV to laughing at how loving dumb he is, he doesn't even understand some of the questions the reporters ask.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:54
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How much oil do I win after 12/31?
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Apr 20, 2020 22:55
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Someone tell me why I'm an idiot for considering buying something like Jan 2022 $4c on USO? $3.50c were $1.70 and $4.00c were $1.40ish. Will contango completely obliterate a position like this, or can USO recover in, say 6 months to a year? The greeks for the $4c don't seem horrible. code:
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Apr 20, 2020 22:55
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me, last week, thinking about getting into trading futures:   me, today, after watching may oil futures lol: 
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Apr 20, 2020 22:55
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Agronox posted:-$40 a barrel. I still can't believe it. Dobbs actually called "in the negatives," which I translated to zero because I didn't think WTI futures COULD trade in the negatives. In two days it's going to be 20 bucks again with nothing changing, though. The -$40 is meaningless unless you were dumb enough to try to wait until the last day to unfuck yourself.
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Apr 20, 2020 22:58
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saintonan posted:In two days it's going to be 20 bucks again with nothing changing, though. The -$40 is meaningless unless you were dumb enough to try to wait until the last day to unfuck yourself. In two days...It will be $15 going to 0.
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Apr 20, 2020 23:01
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