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There is a obvious approach, NZ just did it , big questions if they'll keep doing it.we just didnt care and still don't care.
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Apr 27, 2020 11:34
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:There is a obvious approach, NZ just did it , big questions if they'll keep doing it.we just didnt care and still don't care. Be a tiny isolated island nation in the pacific? I mean I guess Iceland has a meaningful frame of reference. Maybe Cyprus too?
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Apr 27, 2020 12:13
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Italy announced its opening up schedule last night: If the hardest hit country in Europe is opening everything up to and including its bars by June 1st then I'd imagine the rest of the continent won't be far behind (if its behind that schedule at all). Looks like we should see some level of normal life back by mid-June.
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Apr 27, 2020 12:42
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We'll see how long that lasts
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Apr 27, 2020 12:48
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MiddleOne posted:Be a tiny isolated island nation in the pacific? Rude, calling kiwiland tiny. Imma go out on a limb and say quarantining new arrivals for 14 days, closing borders and national lockdown when you had 205 confirmed and suspected cases, and only opening up when there's close to zero new cases is something that was achievable by your run of the mill country, not just superior island nations.they didn't even close all their ports! That's some hardcore pandemic run.
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Apr 27, 2020 12:53
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Second wave well hit by September at the latest
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Apr 27, 2020 12:53
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Can someone offer some insight on what's going on in Spain? Their data regarding infected/dead seem really dire 
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Apr 27, 2020 12:53
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Blut posted:Italy announced its opening up schedule last night: Friendly reminder that the most deadly part of the 1918 flu pandemic was the second wave where idiotic governments and businesses prematurely opened up the markets, causing widespread spreading of the flu and death. I'm sure this will end as well as the South opening up the state in the US right now will in 1-2 weeks...
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Apr 27, 2020 13:34
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Horseshoe theory posted:Friendly reminder that the most deadly part of the 1918 flu pandemic was the second wave where idiotic governments and businesses prematurely opened up the markets, causing widespread spreading of the flu and death. I'm sure this will end as well as the South opening up the state in the US right now will in 1-2 weeks... The more deadly second wave of the Spanish Flu pandemic didn't happen immediately that summer. It happened the following winter. Given heat and humidity reduce the r0 number for corona pretty significantly its probably unlikely we see an immediate massive resurgence in Europe this summer. But I definitely wouldn't be planning any holiday for November onwards when the odds are very high a second wave hits. And when it hits it'll be at the same time as normal flu season, and at the start of winter so with 5+ months to go, and with a lot of countries already in an economic depression.... things will probably get rather ugly.
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Apr 27, 2020 13:43
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To be fair to the Italian government (lol), they did say that they would continue wide-spread testing and watch the numbers like hawks, and if there's even a hint of Covid starting to spread uncontrolled again they will lock the country back down immediately.
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Apr 27, 2020 13:54
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Personally, I don't think treating Lombardia as the other regions is a good idea.
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Apr 27, 2020 14:39
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Ghost Leviathan posted:Am I the only one who's actually noticeably lost weight with isolation? Not really related to COVID-19, though.
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Apr 27, 2020 16:19
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:Or the UK. Mikl posted:To be fair to the Italian government (lol), they did say that they would continue wide-spread testing and watch the numbers like hawks, and if there's even a hint of Covid starting to spread uncontrolled again they will lock the country back down immediately.
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Apr 27, 2020 20:30
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It seems that the plan for Italy and Spain is keeping the curve as flat as possible while also trying to build some kind of herd immunity. on a virus that we don't know if we can build herd immunity, and on countries where the pandemic as been especially deadly, either because they have a specific virulent strain, or just bad luck in genetic and age composition. Maybe the Spanish empire WAS the bloodline successor of rome. We really do need fast and reliable tests, I think the ones we have now can detect the virus if there's a 1k count for 1cc of blood?edit:might be 3k cells minimum per swab/test. For reference, the hiv test can detect 50 virus cells in 1cc of blood. Antifa Poltergeist fucked around with this message at 21:09 on Apr 27, 2020 |
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Apr 27, 2020 20:54
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We'll see how it shakes out in practice and how tough the targets are really going to be, but this is pretty heartening imho. Good to see that the Germans are on board with not loving over the climate for the 'rona recovery period. I mean, the EU Green Deal isn't exactly great, but still leagues ahead of a lot of other places. Also remember that the FT is the favourite place for the EU and its senior officials to leak and place ideas; if it's about the EU and it's in the FT, pay attention. quote:EU grapples with melding pandemic recovery and climate agenda (from the FT this morning)
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Apr 29, 2020 08:57
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The Italian government does not, to my knowledge, want to develop herd immunity, it's never been a part of the discussed strategy and it doesn't fit into the current plans, which involve very selective reopenings and constant checks on the data to decide whether to continue or revert to the lockdown. In terms of strictly handling the pandemic, the current lockdown would probably be the best strategy to handle the virus until treatment/a vaccine is found, but due to economic pressures *and* domestic abuse/mental health issues it's probably not viable for such a long period of time. We'll see how it goes, but "Italy/Spain are doing herd immunity" is a weird take.
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Apr 29, 2020 11:35
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The EU's biggest positive influence in the 21st century is probably going to be on climate change. Its going to drag so many nation states that would otherwise be clinging onto polluting methods for domestic reasons (hello Poland), or claiming they can't reduce emissions because of economic competition from their neighbours, into carbon neutrality with both policy reform and funding initiatives like the Green Deal. Its great to see. It should place Europe at the very forefront of climate issues, which given its economic power as a bloc hopefully sets a standard for other regions to copy/follow. And if they don't do it by themselves, the next step after we get our own house in order should be using trade deals to only trade with other countries that match our efforts on climate change.
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Apr 29, 2020 12:05
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Blut posted:It should place Europe at the very forefront of climate issues, which given its economic power as a bloc hopefully sets a standard for other regions to copy/follow. And if they don't do it by themselves, the next step after we get our own house in order should be using trade deals to only trade with other countries that match our efforts on climate change. Strong agree, but on the other hand, we could've done exactly the same when it comes to labour rights and environmental pollution/degradation for the last decades. Basically, having domestic producers competing with countries where labour effectively has few if any rights puts domestic producers at a clear and unfair competitive disadvantage. The result is outsourcing and a net loss in labour rights. Now, in the neoliberal framework that's probably intentional. But the exact same poo poo can easily happen to our climate change efforts. And if we do put out foot down on climate issues in trade deals, it obviously begs the question why we would (continue) not to do this on labour rights issues. The standard should be: if you want to sell your goods and services on the European Common Market, they should be produced in accordance with the European regulatory framework. A trade deal should be a way to work out whether standards used in other countries are sufficiently equivalent to European standards to gain access to the market or not. And when in doubt, err on the side of protecting the European regulatory framework, rather than "the European consumer" or whatever bullshit excuse they use to benefit capital. Because that's the real kicker here, when companies from places outside the EU get to compete while exploiting an absence of labour rights, they de facto also make a mockery of European regulations. This fundamentally undermines the legitimacy of the EU. After all, why should citizens care about a government which clearly doesn't exist to protect them?
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Apr 29, 2020 13:16
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Fair Bear Maiden posted:The Italian government does not, to my knowledge, want to develop herd immunity, it's never been a part of the discussed strategy and it doesn't fit into the current plans, which involve very selective reopenings and constant checks on the data to decide whether to continue or revert to the lockdown. Everywhere that's not locked down hard and aiming for zero cases is doing herd immunity.they might not call it that, but flattenning the curve doesn't mean flattening to zero, it means keeping hospital cases manageable that they don't overwhelm the health service.you're still gonna have cases , and infections, and deaths.you're still gonna get it , it'll just take a while.on a virus that is probably seasonal.for which there is no vaccine.and 10x deadlier than other seasonal illnesses.we're all going to play Russian roulette with this thing.until such time there is a vaccine or enough of the population has antibodies to...ya know. Meanwhile we're talking about economic bailouts and stimulus packages in the tens of trillions of euros and I'm just sitting here dividing 10 trillion by 400 million and that's a lot of money, while the EU country that is opening a bunch of coal and natural gas powerplants talks about how "gosh the climate is really important!". If we live through this, we're gonna call the 21st century the half-assed century.
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Apr 29, 2020 15:09
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Blut posted:The EU's biggest positive influence in the 21st century is probably going to be on climate change. Its going to drag so many nation states that would otherwise be clinging onto polluting methods for domestic reasons (hello Poland), or claiming they can't reduce emissions because of economic competition from their neighbours, into carbon neutrality with both policy reform and funding initiatives like the Green Deal. Its great to see. I wish to live in your world. In my world, every time a new antipollution regulation was passed in Europe, corporations closed up shop and then settled down in China or India or Africa, where they weren't burdened by this new regulation and also any other and also the workforce was cheaper, and proceeded to gleefully pollute more than before while also regressing to 19th century standards of workplace safety. And Europe was using its economic power as a bloc to applaud. https://www.pharmacompass.com/radio-compass-blog/india-s-antibiotic-crisis-pollution-unapproved-drugs-overdosed-poultry quote:Drug companies polluting environment
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Apr 29, 2020 22:54
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Cat Mattress posted:I wish to live in your world. The death of leaded petrol? The phasing out of chlorofluorocarbons? Euro1 to 6 for vehicle emissions? Stricter regulations for waste incinerators? They're just the first 4 massive environmental improvements the EU has achieved in the last 20~ years that come to mind straight away, and they've had hugely positively effects all over the continent. Just because you're ignorant of environmental success stories doesn't mean they aren't happening.
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Apr 29, 2020 23:23
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Blut posted:The death of leaded petrol? I have emphasized the problem here. Yeah, getting our factories to close so that they can reopen in Asia is a great way to reduce pollution in Europe. But at the same time it increases it globally.
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Apr 29, 2020 23:45
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Cat Mattress posted:I have emphasized the problem here. What? Try reading my post again. Every single one of those named initiatives has massively reduced pollution in Europe. And improved the quality of life for Europeans. And helped the planet in general, on top. And not one of them moved factories from Europe to elsewhere.
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Apr 29, 2020 23:58
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Mid to late 90's when lead gasoline was being discontinued in portugal will never forget the horrible headache and weird sadness whenever my parents went to a gas station.
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Apr 30, 2020 00:33
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Blut posted:Given heat and humidity reduce the r0 number for corona pretty significantly IIRC this was never really proven definitively. Also one thing I've never understood about that argument is like, how many modern office buildings, factories, retail stores, restaurants, and bars packed full of people and surfaces the virus can cling to have ambient temperatures of 32 degrees and 80% humidity in the summer? Like, air conditioning is a thing...
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Apr 30, 2020 00:39
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:IIRC this was never really proven definitively. Brazil is doing really well with covid,with all that heat and humidity.or Guatemala. You still have flu cases in the summer, just less.why?no one knows! Is it the extra UV ambient light?maybe surplus vitamin d?people take more baths? Maybe the increase in beer consumption has something to do with it.no one knows!even the difference between causation and correlation is muddled in the summer months. Maybe the Economy could pray to God and He pulls a SARS for us again and this thing vanishes into thin air.wouldnt hold my breath though.you wont need to.covid does that for you.
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Apr 30, 2020 10:38
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Mr Luxury Yacht posted:IIRC this was never really proven definitively. Its been fairly reliably proven. This was the first study that showed it: quote:High temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively. One-degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0225 and 0.0158, respectively. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767 Its not enough to stop the virus, but a say 20C increase in temp, and a 20% in humidity (February->June weather in a lot of European countries) would reduce the r0 by 0.77 - which would slow it down pretty significantly. Most countries outside of the US tend to not be so heavily AC filled. Even within the US you'd be surprised at how many poor people spend their times in places that either don't have AC, or if they have it can't afford to run it all the time. People also tend to spend a lot more time outdoors in summer than in winter.
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Apr 30, 2020 11:19
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no it hasn't, because we don't know jack poo poo about this virus, and it will take years until we can say if this has any effect at all. There's more evidence for the goddamn bcg vaccine than warm weather.
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May 1, 2020 16:58
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please do not base conclusions on research before it's passed peer review
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May 1, 2020 19:00
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Blut posted:https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3550308 Yes, and I can find a dozen of other papers that say it doesn't, and others that say, actually, cold weather kills this thing https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022715v1 Besides the obvious cottage industry of doing half assed studies to be exclusively published in pop science, we just don't know. Because to even begin to have a inkling if warm weather and humidity affects this thing, we need to observe it under the same conditions for several summer and winter cycles. Unless I'm mistaken, this thing hasn't been around for years? Otherwise, you're just counting your eggs before the chicken layed them. We just don't know.theres a reason why both the who and the CDC haven't jumped all over these studies. Anyways, how bout those Dutch eh?
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May 1, 2020 21:25
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Antifa Poltergeist posted:Yes, and I can find a dozen of other papers that say it doesn't, and others that say, actually, cold weather kills this thing That study you linked agreed with my point: quote:Starting from May 2020, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, the Central China Zhengzhou-Wuhan urban agglomeration, the eastern Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai urban agglomeration, and the southern Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration are all under a high temperature above 24 degree Celsius, which is not conducive to the survival and reproduction of coronaviruses. So on the one hand we have multiple studies I've linked to, we have the one you linked to, we have the current evidence of hot & humid countries having much much lower death rates, and we have the knowledge that other corona virus family viruses are all definitely disrupted by heat and humidity. And on the other we have you saying... "No, definitely not" and one study. Now I'm no fancy Southern lawyer but I know which side of this debate the preponderance of evidence is leaning to.
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May 1, 2020 23:57
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You have me saying "we don't know" , because there hasn't been enough time, the methodology on a lot of these studies is shady ,and we don't know.which is, incidentally, the position of the the world health organization, The CDC, and the imperial college. But you may have more information than those three, hell a goon caught the bcg correlation so anything is possible I guess. Maybe we should ask Brazil and Australia how the summer time helped, I'm sure they are doing great. Anywho, the Dutch, imarite?
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May 2, 2020 01:11
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drat Dutch! They are at it again!
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May 2, 2020 05:20
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Dutch doing dutch things.
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May 2, 2020 08:32
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I blame the British for giving us all these nasty names when were kicking their rear end at the seafaring and trading business* centuries ago. They are who made us into what we are today! *killing people to gain hold of their spices, selling slaves, killing people
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May 2, 2020 11:41
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The Dutch just plain hate other people, that's why they decided to live under the sea.
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May 2, 2020 12:09
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The Dutch primarily hate themselves at the moment, seeing how they treat social distancing (i.e., not at all).
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May 2, 2020 18:29
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A Buttery Pastry posted:The Dutch just plain hate other people, that's why they decided to live under the sea. Most of the planet will be like that soon, they're just ahead of the game.
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May 3, 2020 10:25
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Mierenneuker posted:*killing people to gain hold of their spices, selling slaves, killing people 
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May 3, 2020 10:51
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