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CarlosTheDwarf posted:brazil is hot and humid and getting slammed by Covid-19. Not sure why they keep talking of it going away in the summer. Orange man said it will die in the heat and that's enough for the GOP death cult.
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Apr 30, 2020 16:41
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The final toll currently "looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000" that U.S. officials previously estimated, Fauci said. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way This was 21 days ago. Not sure why he was relying on such a lovely model. We are at 62,161 already. Lowering the estimate down to 60,000 fueled alot of lockdown backlash.
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Apr 30, 2020 16:42
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:The final toll currently "looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000" that U.S. officials previously estimated, Fauci said. They probably told him get in line or be fired and he got in line because he knows the person appointed after him is probably going to be some ghoul like Stephen Miller.
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Apr 30, 2020 16:52
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Chomp8645 posted:Aww man I misread and now I look positively foolish! 
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Apr 30, 2020 16:54
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HugeGrossBurrito posted:They probably told him get in line or be fired and he got in line because he knows the person appointed after him is probably going to be some ghoul like Stephen Miller. i doubt it. I mean politically it would have been better to say we expect 200,000 deaths. Then if they end up at 120,000 trump can say see we did an amazing job. He just relied on a model that was awful.
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Apr 30, 2020 16:55
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:The final toll currently "looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000" that U.S. officials previously estimated, Fauci said. The IHME "model" is just a statistical curve-fit with some real dumb assumptions about both what measures will stay in place and what the curve ought to look like (mostly symmetrical rise and fall). It's dumb and bad and consistently wrong and should be ignored. Other models actually model viral spread and aren't just math functions.
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Apr 30, 2020 16:57
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Captain Beans posted:im not sure why anyone is stunned by how the US is handing everything, it makes complete sense if you accept that no one gives a poo poo about people’s lives, and instead openly only care about ~~~**the economy**~~~ (my money) i dont think anyone is stunned at all? perhaps you are confusing anger or sadness for surprise
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Apr 30, 2020 16:57
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:i doubt it. I mean politically it would have been better to say we expect 200,000 deaths. Then if they end up at 120,000 trump can say see we did an amazing job. He just relied on a model that was awful. lol you doubt the trump administration made a scientist lie when they have literally already done that multiple times
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Apr 30, 2020 16:58
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Trump was already bragging about the death toll being under 60k means he was incredibly successful. Waiting to see where he moves those goal posts and the “If it weren’t for all those blue states....” poo poo flinging.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:00
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:Not sure why he was relying on such a lovely model. We are at 62,161 already. your not sure why? seriously? he promoted the lower estimate because it fueled the lockdown backlash. on purpose. he wasn't "relying on a bad model", he was touting a number that came from a model that might have made sense if people had actually followed social distancing to a real degree; the admin was well aware this number was unrealistically low but that it would turn people against governors. in fact, while hanging on to the 60k number, the administration specifically and intentionally engaged in behaviors that guaranteed we would surpass it. Earwicker fucked around with this message at 17:05 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 17:02
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He
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Apr 30, 2020 17:03
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Earwicker posted:your not sure why? seriously? the model never made sense. It assumed a massive drop off, ignoring what was happening in italy. Trump is all over the map regarding the lockdown. Today he is slamming Sweden again saying that the lockdown was the right move.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:05
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:the model never made sense. It assumed a massive drop off, ignoring what was happening in italy. yes but that's because it assumed proper social distancing procedures which did not happen in italy until too late and even then were routinely violated the us has been even worse in that regard, and the constant drumming for "reopening" before social distancing has even been properly implemented on a nationwide level has been coming directly from the top, whatever random remarks trump might make about sweden there's no ignoring his yelling about "liberate michigan/ohio/etc" and the actions taken by his supporters like kemp
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Apr 30, 2020 17:09
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https://twitter.com/sciotopost/status/1255643404823920641?s=20 Some people have said it’s because the tests they used were contaminated with the virus. That sounds like a level of thinking that makes one fee better about their own chances, but it could be. It’s all very distressing
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Apr 30, 2020 17:13
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Chomp8645 posted:Mortuary/funeral services are like tow truck companies that take away people instead of cars, and just as unscrupulous. Can confirm: they put a boot on me poor auld mum!
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Apr 30, 2020 17:14
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:brazil is hot and humid and getting slammed by Covid-19. Not sure why they keep talking of it going away in the summer. i think the logic is that summer there will be less people in the hospitals so they'll be under less pressure but people read that and assume that it means covid goes away when its warm so better put all your winter layers on and sit on the sofa sweating
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Apr 30, 2020 17:16
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Earwicker posted:yes but that's because it assumed proper social distancing procedures which did not happen in italy until too late and even then were routinely violated It assumed that cases/deaths would ramp down just as quickly as they ramp up, or nearly so, and that isn't what we've seen anywhere. The decline is a longer tail than the rise. Illinois is still reporting daily deaths of 60-100 people and this dumb "model" thinks we'll cap out at 200 more deaths than we have right now.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:17
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CarlosTheDwarf posted:the model never made sense. It assumed a massive drop off, ignoring what was happening in italy. Trump is all over the map regarding the lockdown. Today he is slamming Sweden again saying that the lockdown was the right move. the stated purpose of that particular model was to predict when the peak would happen and the peak usage of materials needed by hospitals. that's it. it's kind of their fault (?) for making a slick webpage around it but as is often said - all models are wrong, some are useful. this one was useful in a very specific and limited context. it just also happened to predict a lower number of deaths, and so was latched onto by administration officials who were looking for a model to justify what they wanted to be true
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Apr 30, 2020 17:21
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hemale in pain posted:i think the logic is that summer there will be less people in the hospitals so they'll be under less pressure but people read that and assume that it means covid goes away when its warm so better put all your winter layers on and sit on the sofa sweating the theory i've heard is that mucous membranes are thicker in summer since they aren't drying out, which is partly why flu trends upwards in winter months. which...makes me worry about this being endemic in winter without a vaccine available.
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Apr 30, 2020 17:25
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hemale in pain posted:i think the logic is that summer there will be less people in the hospitals so they'll be under less pressure but people read that and assume that it means covid goes away when its warm so better put all your winter layers on and sit on the sofa sweating no I believe there is some evidence that certain viruses seem to spread more effectively within certain parameters of temperature and humidity, and somewhat less effectively outside those parameters. This absolutely does NOT mean that places with suboptimal conditions are safe, or even that there will be a noticeable difference in R0, especially if a lot of transmission is occuring indoors
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Apr 30, 2020 17:27
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It will disappear like a miracle like a butt plug into my anus
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Apr 30, 2020 17:28
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Fatkraken posted:no I believe there is some evidence that certain viruses seem to spread more effectively within certain parameters of temperature and humidity, and somewhat less effectively outside those parameters. This absolutely does NOT mean that places with suboptimal conditions are safe, or even that there will be a noticeable difference in R0, especially if a lot of transmission is occuring indoors but yeah like you said that doesn't mean it goes away in the summer, and it seems like this virus doesn't really mind the warm weather either wyoak fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 17:53
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Fenarisk posted:Can't trump force the meat workers back to work just like Reagan did with the airline workers? Honest question I don't know the answer to, especially since a strong union was involved in that incident as well. Schadenboner posted:PATCO was a cop union: it backed Reagan and reaped what it loving well sowed. Reagan tried to force striking air traffic controllers back to work because they are federal employees. When the majority of them refused, he fired some 12,000 of them, replacing them with scabs and military. The union covering air traffic controllers at the time was the Professional Air Traffic Controllers Organization (PATCO), I don't know about the cop stuff the other poster is talking about. Maybe a similar but different issue. Reagan did campaign on a platform that supported PATCO's cause. He "changed" his mind apparently. The ordeal resulted in the dissolution of PATCO, and controllers were unrepresented until 1987 when NATCA was formed. In Texas news, I sure am glad we're opening things up while bodies rot and leak into the streets in Brooklyn. I just want to go live in the woods or something. The Ferret King fucked around with this message at 18:04 on Apr 30, 2020 |
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Apr 30, 2020 17:54
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I thought the whole cold/hot thing was because the virus "shelf life" is extended dramatically in colder environments, where it decays quicker in warmer. Which is why "flu season" is almost always during colder months. Simply being a hot climate doesn't make you safe, it still exists, just not as long. Or maybe this was all completely disproved while I took a poo poo.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:17
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Philthy posted:I thought the whole cold/hot thing was because the virus "shelf life" is extended dramatically in colder environments, where it decays quicker in warmer. Which is why "flu season" is almost always during colder months. Simply being a hot climate doesn't make you safe, it still exists, just not as long. It probably makes even less of a difference here since everyone is getting this from each other's breathing and not from surfaces unless you really like licking stuff
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Apr 30, 2020 18:39
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It's time to reopen the economy. We can use the dead elderly and infirm as yard mulch and snack food.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:55
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shovelbum posted:It probably makes even less of a difference here since everyone is getting this from each other's breathing and not from surfaces unless you really like licking stuff And also indoor enclosed spces tend to be climate controlled, AC in summer heating in winter. I wonder if places with hot summers and less use of AC will see different patterns, probably any effect will be statistically tiny and swamped by other factors
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Apr 30, 2020 18:55
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I live in Franklin County here in Ohio and my county has now surpassed the rest of the state with the most Coronavirus cases and deaths. Looks like the statewide and county level numbers haven't "flattened" like health experts assumed it would last month either. So excited for the gradual opening date of May 1st. Can't wait.
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Apr 30, 2020 18:58
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Fatkraken posted:And also indoor enclosed spces tend to be climate controlled, AC in summer heating in winter. I wonder if places with hot summers and less use of AC will see different patterns, probably any effect will be statistically tiny and swamped by other factors Guayaquil lmao
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Apr 30, 2020 19:04
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Cough Drop The Beat posted:I live in Franklin County here in Ohio and my county has now surpassed the rest of the state with the most Coronavirus cases and deaths. Looks like the statewide and county level numbers haven't "flattened" like health experts assumed it would last month either. So excited for the gradual opening date of May 1st. Can't wait. Same here. I guess Mike DeWine got in trouble with his rich friends for being too on the ball with the lockdown back in March.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:41
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why does everyone assume that people wanting to return to work is a trumper? i literally need money for food and shelter, i have no money because my UI claim is in limbo. no more money is coming from the government. why am i a bad person for wanting to feed my family the only way i can
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Apr 30, 2020 19:51
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https://twitter.com/willmenaker/status/1255931442980433928
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Apr 30, 2020 19:55
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Bernie Panders posted:why does everyone assume that people wanting to return to work is a trumper? i literally need money for food and shelter, i have no money because my UI claim is in limbo. no more money is coming from the government. why am i a bad person for wanting to feed my family the only way i can Nice try! But if you were really progressive you'd welcome death.
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Apr 30, 2020 19:56
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This is the time for hentai to take it's rightful place as the preeminent form of photography. It's virus proof!
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Apr 30, 2020 19:58
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Bernie Panders posted:why does everyone assume that people wanting to return to work is a trumper? i literally need money for food and shelter, i have no money because my UI claim is in limbo. no more money is coming from the government. why am i a bad person for wanting to feed my family the only way i can Goons - everyone going to their jobs and business is impinging on MY PERSONAL SAFETY Also goons - I expect my power, water, and especially internet to stay on, my trash to be picked up, and for packages, groceries, and fast food to be delivered on time to my doorstep.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:00
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Bernie Panders posted:why does everyone assume that people wanting to return to work is a trumper? i literally need money for food and shelter, i have no money because my UI claim is in limbo. no more money is coming from the government. why am i a bad person for wanting to feed my family the only way i can You gotta do what you gotta do to survive. I'm not going to any movie theaters this weekend though. If you work at one of those, I hope it stays slow to reduce your chance of infection. .
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Apr 30, 2020 20:05
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angryrobots posted:Goons - everyone going to their jobs and business is impinging on MY PERSONAL SAFETY Power, water, and internet can run on skeleton crews and all retail other than delivered standardized grocery packages on multi-week intervals should be shut the gently caress down
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Apr 30, 2020 20:05
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Snowglobe of Doom posted:It's just a flu, bro I read the whole article because I figured the headline was an exaggeration, and nope... it's not. How do you just discover that there are 4 trucks with bodies in them? Right outside of a funeral home? No one knew they were there.
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Apr 30, 2020 20:10
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shovelbum posted:Power, water, and internet can run on skeleton crews and all retail other than delivered standardized grocery packages on multi-week intervals should be shut the gently caress down you are wrong and it's scary that there are people out there that think like this
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Apr 30, 2020 20:15
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Bernie Panders posted:why does everyone assume that people wanting to return to work is a trumper? i literally need money for food and shelter, i have no money because my UI claim is in limbo. no more money is coming from the government. why am i a bad person for wanting to feed my family the only way i can Struggling to feed your family and pay rent is very tough and loving terrible, but there's a global public health crisis going on and people are dying by the thousands. There's 25k+ new cases nationally per day and this epidemic isn't ending anytime soon. This isn't just about you. It's about society as a whole and we're hosed.
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