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Corbeau posted:My big takeaway from this campaign season has been that a plurality of Democrats are not people I want to associate with, or aid politically, in any way. But...they are the people you have to win over?
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May 1, 2020 00:22
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Many voters are so hypervigilant now (especially the #Resistance jerkoffs) for anything they perceive as foreign interference that I'm not sure how much influence actual foreign interference might have this time, but maybe that's just naive optimism on my part.
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May 1, 2020 00:23
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:His name was Addamere and I think he got banned a while back? Not sure for what. ColonelMuttonchops posted:Point the way, then. Go ahead and look it up, Fritz Coldcockin. I'm remembering it a bit better now: not only does this not support your dumb argument, it's actually evidence against it. Let's see some links.
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May 1, 2020 00:23
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Mooseontheloose posted:But...they are the people you have to win over? They aren't, because that ain't gonna happen no matter what I say. Nothing that I can present will stick in the face of media bombardment.
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May 1, 2020 00:25
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA. Your enthusiasm encourages me so I donated.
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May 1, 2020 00:27
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:His name was Addamere and I think he got banned a while back? Not sure for what. Not familiar with him, but MSDOS knows who you're talking about so yeah, I guess there's an example of a real life Bernie Bro. I'm gonna assume he got shat on by the forumgoers here because thats a dickish thing to do, and as Bernie would say, he does not represent the movement.
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May 1, 2020 00:27
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA. This is more productive than whatever we're arguing about. Threw in a few bucks myself. Might phone bank tomorrow. Remind me, Friendbot, you're good at that (USER WAS PERMABANNED FOR THIS POST)
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May 1, 2020 00:30
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ColonelMuttonchops posted:Not familiar with him, but MSDOS knows who you're talking about so yeah, I guess there's an example of a real life Bernie Bro. MSDOS KAPITAL posted:I mean if you really want to go Addamere, probably the best way to go about it would be to not be duplicitous at all: go there and if the subject comes up then straight-out admit that your preference is for Bernie, but your second choice is Warren, and that you're out there that day helping Warren's campaign because there's nothing wrong with volunteering for your second choice and a strong leftist presence in the primary is better for everyone.
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May 1, 2020 00:31
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Note that I've changed my mind about Warren, since then.
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May 1, 2020 00:32
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E: Screw this, it's like arguing with a dining room table.
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May 1, 2020 00:33
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:E: Screw this, it's like arguing with a dining room table.  Like I said from the start: you should have just not posted. Glad you finally came around.
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May 1, 2020 00:35
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA.
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May 1, 2020 00:36
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MSDOS KAPITAL posted:Turns out trying to advance an argument by citing evidence that refutes your argument, isn't a good way to win an argument It doesn't refute my argument; you're literally just pretending it does. If this is how you "win" all your arguments, you must be a real hit at parties, big guy.
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May 1, 2020 00:38
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knock it off you two
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May 1, 2020 00:40
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA. Sent $10 her way, thanks for this alert.
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May 1, 2020 00:41
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA. After some basic research I have concluded that this is Good and sent some money.
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May 1, 2020 00:41
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:It doesn't refute my argument; you're literally just pretending it does. If this is how you "win" all your arguments, you must be a real hit at parties, big guy. Or maybe your argument was just that you bet you can find one Bernie supporter or a handful of them who were real toxic IRL, but not enough to matter - just enough that you can be technically accurate when you say "some Bernie supporters are real jerks." But if that's your argument then let me know because I don't a poo poo about what you're saying, if you're admitting up-front that it didn't rise to the level of having real influence. e: GreyjoyBastard posted:knock it off you two
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May 1, 2020 00:45
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Oh good I'd be super sad if your av got covered up or removed by something else, it brings a smile to my face every time I see it.
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May 1, 2020 00:50
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Fritz Coldcockin posted:I believe that healthcare is a human right, that the camps at the border are an atrocity and should never have existed, and that ICE should be wiped off the face of this earth. I think the corporate tax rate should be where it was in the 1950s and that we spend way too much on defense that could go to health care, education, and housing. I had edited that post to clarify that I see you as a progressive, and was more referring to people that folks like MSDOS and I have been arguing with since late last night that hey, maybe we SHOULD give a poo poo about the fact that Biden allegedly raped someone. Then I edited it out because of fos' post. Sorry for the confusion.  Your Boy Fancy posted:Honestly? It's the same animus I have. It's about taking Republicans out of power and everybody getting what they want. This is what I believed until a ways into Obama's first term. Then I saw how concerted an effort the national Democratic leadership makes towards squelching progressive movements and candidates. I think it's a mistake to try to draw a 1-to-1 comparison between progress that's been made in Virginia, and how progress can be made nationally.
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May 1, 2020 01:01
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https://twitter.com/MeetMckayla/status/1255854434506223621?s=19 Who wants to watch this powerful woman clean up in her town hall tonight?
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May 1, 2020 01:11
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Majorian posted:This is what I believed until a ways into Obama's first term. Then I saw how concerted an effort the national Democratic leadership makes towards squelching progressive movements and candidates. I think it's a mistake to try to draw a 1-to-1 comparison between progress that's been made in Virginia, and how progress can be made nationally. The frustrating thing is that Virginia is an absolutely stellar victory and everyone involved in that should be proud they managed to swing something that's turning out so well -- but it's not like they were the first people who ever attempted something like that. Tons of good people over literal centuries have pushed forward progressive ideals and built coalitions and wheeled and dealed and died before they ever accomplished anything because the forces against them weren't reasonable, they were structural. It's a disservice to history to act like we can simply copy Virginia and have things turn out the same way. Friendbot and crew are 100% right that their methods and sacrifices were worthwhile and that's great, truly. But the way it worked in Virginia this time isn't indicative of how good people making good choices turns out every time. Incrementalism does work, but it doesn't work alone. The systemic problems are such that you need people advocating in different angles at different frequencies of all types because not all people are going to respond to all messages. Some people do respond well to empathetic coalition building, and it's great that we have people doing that. Some people only respond to threats about stability and will only start making concessions from their strongholds when they legitimately feel that they're in danger of losing them, and it's great we have people doing that, too. Some people can't be moved and need to be dragged. Some people need to be treated with the lightest of kiddy gloves or they break down completely. It takes a village, one might say. The majority of us are on the same side, regardless of which method of action we deem most appropriate, but y'all seem to have a vested interest in seeing the worst in each other all the time, and that's sad. (Not you, specifically, just like, the thread.)
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May 1, 2020 01:21
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I think, in short, local organizing just isn't as powerful on the national level as on the local level. I mean, it's not like Lee Carter was getting dragged on MSNBC as far as I know.
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May 1, 2020 01:28
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https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1255659653637292032 in better news. i think the senate is very much in play and i think licking trumps rear end is gonna bite some people real hard.
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May 1, 2020 01:31
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Majorian posted:I had edited that post to clarify that I see you as a progressive, and was more referring to people that folks like MSDOS and I have been arguing with since late last night that hey, maybe we SHOULD give a poo poo about the fact that Biden allegedly raped someone. Then I edited it out because of fos' post. Sorry for the confusion. It was in full force even before Obama got the nom, my political mentor was the first guy to endorse him against an entire machine in my state. It was unpopular and one hell of a way to start my political career but in my mind he had made the right choice and I was behind him all the way. The momentum worked and us and nearby states influenced the shift away from Clinton, and even though it didn't work how I'd have liked his presidency was far better than Clinton or any R. Progressive movements work, and it changed the landscape. Its constant hard work and people do not take the down ballot stuff serious enough and it's what keeps those movements from moving much faster. Every now and again an AoC comes along and just works but that's the exception more than the rule. It's more of people like ya boy fancy and friendbot and their blood sweat and tears doing the work. If anyone did not click on the link friendbot posted and donated arent willing to phone bank for McKayla then your posts are hollow and all is being accomplished is yelling into the void.
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May 1, 2020 01:31
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Didn't see it anywhere here in the thread, but NYT had an article on the difficulty in getting unemployment benefits. tl;dr? Technology is bad, also, Republicans are bad. quote:The state unemployment systems that were supposed to help millions of jobless workers were full of boxes to check and mandates to meet that couldn’t possibly apply in a pandemic.   You may have noticed North Carolina plummet on that first graph. I wonder what sort of weird, unforeseeable circumstance could have caused this. Nobody would have intentionally done it, interdependent systems are complicated, a butterfly flaps its wings and Nah, Republicans are trash posted:By 2019, one in 10 unemployed workers in North Carolina was receiving benefits, the lowest share in the nation. But the state’s trust fund was in far better shape than when the legislature passed tighter restrictions in 2013. I have many feelings, but I'll leave it to Perez' predecessor at Labor quote:“The failures are policy failures,” said Seth Harris, a former deputy labor secretary in the Obama administration. He distinguishes those decisions from the efforts of agency workers. “The failures are in the states that in their basic U.I. program offer fewer than 26 weeks of benefits — that’s a failure. The failures are in the states that narrowed eligibility — that’s a grotesque failure.”
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May 1, 2020 01:38
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friendbot2000 posted:SPEAKING OF MCKAYLA. Oh heck yes! I dunno if I'll be what tips her over into hitting it, but I'll do my best. Threw $50 her way! 
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May 1, 2020 01:38
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Paracaidas posted:Didn't see it anywhere here in the thread, but NYT had an article on the difficulty in getting unemployment benefits. The last time I had to apply for unemployment, which was in 2010, the KY state unemployment website, which was the only way to apply other than over the phone, could only be accessed using Internet Explorer v.6. A piece of software that came out in 2001 and was superseded in 2006.
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May 1, 2020 01:50
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Yuzenn posted:It was in full force even before Obama got the nom, my political mentor was the first guy to endorse him against an entire machine in my state. It was unpopular and one hell of a way to start my political career but in my mind he had made the right choice and I was behind him all the way. Progressive movements do work, but only when they operate with the understanding that liberal institutions like the Democratic leadership are not their friends or allies - they're obstacles.
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May 1, 2020 01:51
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haveblue posted:The most 2019 thing is still the time someone tried to spread fake AOC porn pics and got shut down by a crack team of veteran foot fetishists Pages and pages ago, but this was one of my favourite pre-plague terminally online happenings. It was so hilariously apopro.
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May 1, 2020 01:54
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Dapper_Swindler posted:https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1255659653637292032 Doubt it. You would need an absolute massive blue wave to retake the Senate, and there is just no indication of that anywhere.
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May 1, 2020 01:55
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TyrantWD posted:Doubt it. You would need an absolute massive blue wave to retake the Senate, and there is just no indication of that anywhere. i mean 2018 house sweep happened as did virginia and other states.
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May 1, 2020 01:59
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Dapper_Swindler posted:i mean 2018 house sweep happened as did virginia and other states. 2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot lifting all other Republicans, or a democratic nominee who is going to drive down enthusiasm on the other side.
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May 1, 2020 02:11
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TyrantWD posted:Doubt it. You would need an absolute massive blue wave to retake the Senate, and there is just no indication of that anywhere. I'll settle for the more odious Republicans getting the boot. TyrantWD posted:2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot lifting all other Republicans, or a democratic nominee who is going to drive down enthusiasm on the other side. 2018 didn't have Corona nor did it have Trump fumbling the ball and the GOP letting everyone know they'd rather let them die instead of bailout anyone other than corporations and the wealthy.
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May 1, 2020 02:14
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Young Freud posted:I'll settle for the more odious Republicans getting the boot. i think we will get a majority but idk how big it will be. i think with trump loving up and the GOP latching themselves to him, it wont help their races.
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May 1, 2020 02:19
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TyrantWD posted:2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot lifting all other Republicans, or a democratic nominee who is going to drive down enthusiasm on the other side. I mean this is accurate but it also did not have a literal pandemic which was noticeably and publicly botched, nor were were plainly and obviously going into a serious recession. Trump's base isn't going to flinch because they never do but Biden as an empty suit is going to be propped by enthusiasm for "holy gently caress get him out of office" which has come up on multiple occasions and was present even during the primaries. It's not exactly easy to say what is going to happen but Trump is basically going into a worse case scenario for a sitting President and as much as people on this forum (JUSTIFIABLY) hate Biden that same thing hasn't yet carried over to the general public where Biden generally polls very strong. Trump is trying to shift the blame as hard as he can because he knows this is going to be a serious loving issue for him in November and despite America's notoriously short attention span most people are not going to forget the past few months that quickly.
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May 1, 2020 02:23
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TyrantWD posted:2018 didn't have Trump on the ballot lifting all other Republicans, or a democratic nominee who is going to drive down enthusiasm on the other side. There are a lot of assumptions baked into that prediction which the details of 2018's turnout don't particularly support.
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May 1, 2020 02:23
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Oh hey, Senate chat? I feel like that's been a while! We'll assume that the only way the Dems have a chance at the Senate is with a Biden victory. It's not strictly true, but working from a base of needing +3 is just more fun. Best chances to flip: Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina It's not unlikely: Maine It could? happen (roughly in my likelihood order): Georgia, Georgia, South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, Kansas Crazier things have happened, but not in a long loving time: Texas, Alaska, Kentucky This rises to needing +4 if you assume Jones loses in Alabama. +5 if, towards evilweasel's point earlier, you don't want Manchin to be the most powerful legislator in America. Before coronavirus, I'd have said it was possible but unlikely that Dems could win those top 4. Now, with everything? Loeffler's profiteering and status as Kemp's appointment/personal favorite may put her seat into play. Depending on how all of this reopening plays out, Georgia, Iowa, South Carolina, and Texas could all see massive death and continued, severe economic pain. e: Killer robot posted:There are a lot of assumptions baked into that prediction which the details of 2018's turnout don't particularly support.
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May 1, 2020 02:25
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Paracaidas posted:Oh hey, Senate chat? I feel like that's been a while! i dont think we will take texas but i think georgia and SC are in play, as is possibly KY.
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May 1, 2020 02:28
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Are any of those people old enough--on either side?--to potentially perish and upset the race if they contract the bad disease that disproportionately affects the elderly (a statistically vulnerable population in many ways)?
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May 1, 2020 02:30
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Young Freud posted:2018 didn't have Corona nor did it have Trump fumbling the ball and the GOP letting everyone know they'd rather let them die instead of bailout anyone other than corporations and the wealthy. It also didn't have Trump sending everyone a check with his name on it
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May 1, 2020 02:30
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