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Pomeroy posted:Really, let's cut to the chase. The PSUV, contrary to your insistence that they are bloodthirsty killers, are determined to avoid either civil war or US invasion. This produces contradictions, much of the Venezuelan capitalist class sees no reason to tolerate a government that they don't control, and so do all that they can, in collaboration with the US to bring it down. The government is unwilling to act decisively against them because it would in all likelihood mean war, but they are unwilling to just surrender political power back to the capitalists, who they know perfectly well will launch the most vicious reprisals, so just as Allende did, they seek a peaceful, gradual route to socialism. High oil prices allowed them to overcome the contradictions that brought Chile to its crisis, but now those contradiction come roaring back. You know perfectly well, if the capitalists regain control what it will mean. It will mean a bloodletting, it will mean the millions of homes the government has built for the working class will be handed over to landlords for pennies. There are some major issues in this but one of the obvious mistakes is that Venezuelan capitalists as often as not are on the side of the Venezuelan government. Venezuela still has many millionaires. Many of them owe their wealth directly to top officials in the Maduro government, for whom Venezuela's capitalists often act as proxies or rely on kickbacks to score lucrative contracts with minimal oversight. HIgh oil prices were good for Venezuela but even as oil prices kept rising Venezuela's economy was already suffering major problems in fields like agriculture. Bloodletting is what Venezuela has now, the only way to get away from it is real elections edit: for an example of these chavista aligned capitalists you can check out the career of Alejandro Betancourt. He's relatively small fish as far as they're concerned, he's not a general nor does he even have any outstanding American warrants for narco-trafficking. I can easily find lots more examples of business many who've thrived on government contracts under Chavez and Maduro. If you think you can apply a straight forward narrative about the people vs the fat cats to Venezuela you are going to be mistaken. Squalid fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Apr 24, 2020 |
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Apr 24, 2020 02:14
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Pomeroy posted:Really, let's cut to the chase. The PSUV, contrary to your insistence that they are bloodthirsty killers, are determined to avoid either civil war or US invasion. This produces contradictions, much of the Venezuelan capitalist class sees no reason to tolerate a government that they don't control, and so do all that they can, in collaboration with the US to bring it down. The government is unwilling to act decisively against them because it would in all likelihood mean war, but they are unwilling to just surrender political power back to the capitalists, who they know perfectly well will launch the most vicious reprisals, so just as Allende did, they seek a peaceful, gradual route to socialism. High oil prices allowed them to overcome the contradictions that brought Chile to its crisis, but now those contradiction come roaring back. You know perfectly well, if the capitalists regain control what it will mean. It will mean a bloodletting, it will mean the millions of homes the government has built for the working class will be handed over to landlords for pennies. None of this is based on facts or evidence or anything. It's rhetoric with a few examples of historical events acting as scare quotes.
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Apr 24, 2020 03:07
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coronavirus posted:How much do you know about the history of Russia or China say 50 years ago or more? My guess is not much. Nope, you should try reading more. uninterrupted posted:Oh, then the solution is televise the execution of guaido, televise the execution of those citgo execs pence randomly bitches about, hang gusanos, build more ties with countries that believe in freedom like China/Russia/Iran, build more industry at home. Also you've got some weird examples there. China 'not having free internet' is a weird western talking point; it's more for keeping US companies from beating down Chinese tech companies. Iran's treatment of women tracks with a number of other majority-muslim countries, and as for Russia, you seriously think a politician would face serious issues for hating gays? Bringing this derail back around to the thread, maybe you should compare your past 50 years of Russian/Chinese history to the past 50 years of US intervention and unironically explain how Russia has a worse track record than the US.
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Apr 24, 2020 03:26
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Also oh hey the brave venezuelan patriots fighting the insideous Maduro regime's plot to give people food and shelter are openly pocketing the money they had the west steal from Venezuela.quote:The $14 million in funding for the National Assembly is the second largest item in the “Special Law for the Venezuelan Liberation Fund and Attention to Vital Risks,” after a 45% outlay on social spending to ease the humanitarian crisis. That includes the three monthly bonuses of $100 each for “health care heroes," payment of which will be made via digital wallets. The system will be managed with the Organization of American States at a cost of $9.2 million. https://www.readingeagle.com/news/w...c8cb2b2888.html
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Apr 24, 2020 03:32
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Squalid posted:There are some major issues in this but one of the obvious mistakes is that Venezuelan capitalists as often as not are on the side of the Venezuelan government. Venezuela still has many millionaires. Many of them owe their wealth directly to top officials in the Maduro government, for whom Venezuela's capitalists often act as proxies or rely on kickbacks to score lucrative contracts with minimal oversight. That would indeed be an obvious mistake, had I cast the Venezuelan capitalist class as a monolith. Which is why I made sure to refer to "much of" the Venezuelan capitalist class. I'm quite aware there are sections of the capitalist class aligned with the PSUV and other sections that are not totally hostile to it. Class struggle in semi-colonial countries is almost always less cut and dry than in US, but that complexity does not mean it is not a class struggle. If the PSUV were to go the route of Cuba, for example, which resolved these contradictions for itself, these forces that are comparatively friendly or neutral would turn against them, and as I said, they would be facing a very real danger of civil war. The fact that they wish to avoid that possibility creates real problems and challenges, but for liberals to condemn them for the problems that result from gradual reform as opposed to revolution is staggeringly hypocritical.
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Apr 24, 2020 05:10
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:None of this is based on facts or evidence or anything. It's rhetoric with a few examples of historical events acting as scare quotes. It's a more factually based analysis than either "Maduro can't find anyone in the country who knows how to press the 'make economy good' button" or "the PSUV are a bunch of corrupt thieving drug traffickers who only care about themselves, which is why they insist on standing up to the biggest deadliest empire in the world instead of working for it."
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Apr 24, 2020 05:43
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coronavirus posted:How much do you know about the history of Russia or China say 50 years ago or more? My guess is not much. Man, someone's gotta fill me in on how to get this free internet To be serious, the reason why you have wrong opinions is that you completely ignore the harm the US causes to people who aren't middle class US citizens. Gay marriage doesn't somehow off-set murdering thousands of people (though millions is probably more accurate when you look at the net result of both military intervention/support and sanctions) and ruining the lives of millions more.
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Apr 24, 2020 05:50
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Pomeroy posted:That would indeed be an obvious mistake, had I cast the Venezuelan capitalist class as a monolith. Which is why I made sure to refer to "much of" the Venezuelan capitalist class. I'm quite aware there are sections of the capitalist class aligned with the PSUV and other sections that are not totally hostile to it. Class struggle in semi-colonial countries is almost always less cut and dry than in US, but that complexity does not mean it is not a class struggle. If the PSUV were to go the route of Cuba, for example, which resolved these contradictions for itself, these forces that are comparatively friendly or neutral would turn against them, and as I said, they would be facing a very real danger of civil war. The fact that they wish to avoid that possibility creates real problems and challenges, but for liberals to condemn them for the problems that result from gradual reform as opposed to revolution is staggeringly hypocritical. this seems like a weak cop out but whatever. Implicit in your post is that the Venezuelan government represents the people, vs the opposition who represent the capitalists. If you you didn't mean that fine. I'm going to say that the bulk of private venezuelan capital is politically subservient to the government and lacks significant agency to act against it. I feel comfortable arguing this because the Venezuelan state has very powerful tools to use against them if they do so, while government ministers and generals stack the boardrooms of Venezuela's largest businesses. Companies like Empresas Polar were effectively controlled via currency controls, while character's like Betancourt were basically made by Chavez and Maduro, their business is in government contracting and their contracts are assured by graft. There is no contradiction between them and Maduro. Don't get me wrong, the never-ending crises of Venezuela is definitely resolving contradictions, but often not in the way we would expect. For example economists have long complained that Venezuela's gasoline subsidies, the most generous on earth, were unsustainable. Fortunately under Maduro the problem has solved itself. Now that there's no petrol anymore the government doesn't have any subsidies to pay! It's the same story with all of Chavez's other policies, and many that predated him as with the gas subsidy. They're all gone, replaced with a cutthroat system of private enterprise and rent seeking by government officials. Ridiculous currency controls makes it impossible for private business to import supplies? Just chaotically dollarize the whole economy. Violent gangs trafficking cocaine and extorting gold miners? so long as they remember to send tribute to the local colonel they can even use soldiers to make deliveries. It's generally not been rich people getting lined up in backyards and shot by SEBIN. The "contradiction" of a socialist government leading a capitalist state has resolved itself as the socialists became the capitalists, now with unrestrained power to pillage as they please. Squalid fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Apr 24, 2020 |
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Apr 24, 2020 06:03
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coronavirus posted:China doesn't even have free internet. I presume you mean "free" as in broadly uncensored and not "free" as in free at the point of use? Anyway, I would more broadly point to Russia invading and setting up puppet regimes in neighbors destabilizing them and killing shedloads of people. Casually supporting genocidal warlords in their country to have a layer of separation between them and widespread domestic atrocities. You do call out the treatment of LGBTQ people and minorities which is also atrocious. Putin is a petty autocrat playing of a bunch of autocrats against each other all of which are as far removed from the working class as any Western elite. They are not class allies. China is an imperialist, colonial, superpower who is diligently wiping out the culture of non-Han populations when it is not straight up putting them into camps. It is setting up resource extraction operations across the globe in cooperation with local elites. The aggressiveness of its maritime claims and the aggression of its fishing fleet is globally known as it plunders ocean resources of its neighbors and other rich internationals fishing grounds dry. Its ruling class is a set of feuding, unaccountable oligarchs and is now headed up by a authoritarian who is trying to build up a full on personality cult around himself and is setting himself up to rule for life. They are as far removed from the proletariat and workers as any western capitalist. They are not class allies. I have obviously left other bad stuff out in the same way it is basically impossible to enumerate the evils of the British Empire or the US in one post. The gist is though that they are not allies of workers domestically or across the world. When they rock up to countries it is to fulfil their own nationalist interests not to further the cause of workers across the world. They were happy to claim all sorts of Venezuelan assets as a condition to extending money to them and now there are no more assets suddenly the cash dried up as well...
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Apr 24, 2020 06:13
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Squalid posted:this seems like a weak cop out but whatever. Implicit in your post is that the Venezuelan government represents the people, vs the opposition who represent the capitalists. If you you didn't mean that fine. I'm going to say that the bulk of private venezuelan capital is politically subservient to the government and lacks significant agency to act against it. I feel comfortable arguing this because the Venezuelan state has very powerful tools to use against them if they do so, while government ministers and generals stack the boardrooms of Venezuela's largest businesses. Companies like Empresas Polar were effectively controlled via currency controls, while character's like Betancourt were basically made by Chavez and Maduro, their business is in government contracting and their contracts are assured by graft. There is no contradiction between them and Maduro. How is that a cop out? You pointed out that there are some Venezuelan capitalists aligned with the government, as if that proved that the struggle between the opposition and the government was not a class struggle, I answered that I was well aware of the existence of those capitalists. There were elements of the capitalist class in China aligned with Mao in the civil war, was that not a class struggle? If the contradictions had resolved themselves as you say, we would not be talking about a crisis in Venezuela, and nobody on here but communists would be saying anything about who the police might be killing. Trump would be selling them guns, the IDF would be training their army, and it would be one more American semi-colony that middle class expats would enjoy return visits to, with no workers from the hillsides living in subsidized apartment blocks in their nice neighborhoods to anger them. Pomeroy fucked around with this message at 06:38 on Apr 24, 2020 |
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Apr 24, 2020 06:33
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Pomeroy posted:How is that a cop out? You pointed out that there are some Venezuelan capitalists aligned with the government, as if that proved that the struggle between the opposition and the government was not a class struggle, I answered that I was well aware of the existence of those capitalists. There were elements of the capitalist class in China aligned with Mao in the civil war, was that not a class struggle? It is a class struggle but dear old Maduro isn't on the side you think he is. He is corrupted and co-opted. In Venezuela you have class enemies on all sides.
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Apr 24, 2020 06:47
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oh don't worry, those hillside workers are still servicing the venezuelan middle class. Only now they do it in Bogota and Lima, where tens of thousands of Venezuelans have literally had to walk in desperate search of piecework. They just arrived a couple years after the Venezuelan professional class. Hey let's look on the bright side though, when your country loses over four million people it must mean their are more nice little subsided apartments for everyone else right? Although thinking back on it, I seem to remember seeing a surprising number of people living in ramshackle slums without even running water. . . Well I guess it's too much to expect that Maduro and Chavez will have given EVERYBODY a home in only twenty years. A brief queue shouldn't be too much of a problem I suppose. . . and if somehow PSUV functionaries and loyalists somehow find their way to the front of the line, well there's no harm in doing your friends a few favors i suppose?
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Apr 24, 2020 07:29
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Ytlaya posted:The thing the anti-Maduro folks keep omitting is any sort of remotely convincing argument that their preferred politicians wouldn't just take the status quo and shift more wealth to the upper class. This isn't the argument. The argument has always been that the wealth is already accumulated by the upper class which is now just friendly to the government or is part of it, that there's already death squads and that foreign governments are already taking over state assets. The hope is that maybe without the military running things you can have a less violent society. Reverting the enormity of the crisis is going to take decades of work, I don't believe that literally anybody can do it within the length of a single presidential term, no. Ytlaya posted:To be serious, the reason why you have wrong opinions is that you completely ignore the harm the US causes to people who aren't middle class US citizens. Gay marriage doesn't somehow off-set murdering thousands of people (though millions is probably more accurate when you look at the net result of both military intervention/support and sanctions) and ruining the lives of millions more. Weird example to use considering Venezuela's treatment of LGBTQ+ people but whatever. No, actually the point is that to a non-US citizen, the idea of a crisis being solely manufactured by the US with absolutely no hand in it by the Venezuelan state is a ridiculous claim. Chavismo had 21 years of weak opposition, 14 years of peak oil, literally trillions of dollars coming in through oil revenues, several bailout packages by China and Russia, and a near total control of the economy through expropriation and the currency control schemes. And yet it did not manage to complete just one of its objectives. Absolutely nothing was accomplished by the Bolivarian revolution, and it takes none of the blame. Pomeroy posted:Suffice to say, I have to deal with OFAC processes at my job, and characterizing sanctions against individual leaders of any kind of organization, state, party, bank, business, as meaningfully separate, in practice from sanctioning those institutions, is something an honest person can only do out of ignorance. How does it work? Please explain to me the mechanism that created the Venezuelan crisis in 2013, where the government had absolutely no hand whatsoever and was completely helpless against US economic war. I can summarize my explanation in one sentence: currency controls combined with inflexible price controls and ill-advised expropriation caused mass capital flight and drove local production to a standstill, as the bureaucracy could never scale up to the task. Can you do the same? Pomeroy posted:conflicts and disagreements between certain sections of the PSUV, the broader Chavista movement, and the PCV "Conflicts and disagreements". That's some clinical language. The article speaks about DGCIM soldiers sneaking into factories dressed at workers so that they could break apart protests, workers being detained by security forces for demanding better conditions, union leaders being harassed in their homes by police. Here's an even longer writeup decrying the militarism of Maduro and how it only serves capitalist interests. This is Maduro's base calling him out, whenever you speak of "the workers" of Venezuela, this is the people you're talking about. And they're protesting him. Ytlaya posted:I'm not trying to quibble about numbers, the point is it's a country in crisis, in near civil-war conditions. Of course there's violence, both from the state and the opposition. The objection to the report is that it, and folks like you making use of it, try to characterize this as the government taking basically fascist repressive measures against legitimate political opposition, which you can only do by glossing over the actual character and actions of that opposition. Fascist repressive measures...I mean, you said it, not me. But it sure seems like one side has all the guns and all the power and it is responsible for most of the killing, and it's the guys in charge. Pomeroy posted:Ah, feigned incredulity, there's a fresh rhetorical angle. Try addressing the point. It's not feigned, it's legitimate incredulity. Let me begin by reminding you that Chavez' claim to fame in Venezuelan politics before running for president was the failed coup attempt of '92 he carried out himself, in which hundreds died. He wasn't killed then, this insistence on killing your enemies is a bit worrying. But also, the situation that you're describing, I mean, not only am I sure that there's been American politicians saying crazier stuff right about now and not getting arrested for it because of, well, freedom of speech, but I think the current president is pretty good evidence that saying utter insanity and even requesting assistance from foreign governments to get elected won't get you killed. Because most democracies don't kill their enemies. I also have really bad news about these supposed millions of homes the government built. Also about the Venezuelan capitalist class having a government they control. I would like you to maybe entertain the notion that, maybe, the government just plays the role of a socialist government but is in reality, a front to maintain a small elite in power. Like, just think about it for a second, would it be beneficial for Maduro to just, lie about his intentions?
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Apr 24, 2020 08:40
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Are you saying... real socialism has never been tried? 
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Apr 24, 2020 09:38
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Ytlaya posted:Man, someone's gotta fill me in on how to get this free internet You do realize the countries mentioned of Iran, Russia and China aren't some kind of peaceful nations that dont slaughter the soldiers of other countries right? Or even not kill thousands if not millions of their own citizens. Its a terrible example to say "more free countries like Russia,Iran and China". Yes, USA is horrible on a global platform. That doesn't make those other countries listed any less terrible as well.
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Apr 24, 2020 12:39
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coronavirus posted:Its a terrible example to say "more free countries like Russia,Iran and China". Yes, USA is horrible on a global platform. That doesn't make those other countries listed any less terrible as well. “It’s literally impossible to compare things because Daddy Western Media has trained me to preface any mention of a non-western country with “well of course they’re monsters.” Funny how this is never a talking point with countries like Canada/France/Australia/etc. I’m sure it’s not racism.
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Apr 24, 2020 17:34
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What pisses me off about Venezuela is that Chavez managed to launch a huge number of cooperatives and worker-managed businesses. But when he saw that they were practicing capitalism he decided to just start nationalizing everything in which the appointed government officials practiced even more capitalism. Dude had a legitimate game changer for the world economy in his hands and squandered it.
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Apr 24, 2020 22:11
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It's funny how some people just spit out opinions defending the Venezuelan government from afar in the comfort of their own chairs. Makes me wonder if I do the same when talking about the middle east or some other nation that I have never been to or know people that have lived there.
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Apr 25, 2020 02:38
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El Chingon posted:It's funny how some people just spit out opinions defending the Venezuelan government from afar in the comfort of their own chairs. Makes me wonder if I do the same when talking about the middle east or some other nation that I have never been to or know people that have lived there. Let's not do this contentless sniping here, please. This warning goes for everyone, btw.
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Apr 25, 2020 15:57
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https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1254461533880496128?s=21 Jesus, Ecuador is hosed.
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Apr 26, 2020 20:26
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El Chingon posted:It's funny how some people just spit out opinions defending the Venezuelan government from afar in the comfort of their own chairs. Makes me wonder if I do the same when talking about the middle east or some other nation that I have never been to or know people that have lived there. Have you ever met an American before?
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Apr 27, 2020 05:43
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https://twitter.com/ajplus/status/1254767431693684740?s=19 as always, don't read the comments
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Apr 28, 2020 00:16
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https://twitter.com/DCKennard/status/1254046566505201665 https://twitter.com/BrasilWire/status/1254780043491807233 https://twitter.com/BrasilWire/status/1254952885479182336 Brasil is going to hell in real time get ready for chaos and probably lots of death (from coronavirus)
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Apr 28, 2020 03:01
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bagual posted:https://twitter.com/DCKennard/status/1254046566505201665 and after we went to all that effort to put him in place, too. the nerve of some countries
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Apr 28, 2020 03:05
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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:and after we went to all that effort to put him in place, too. the nerve of some countries you say that but https://twitter.com/BrasilWire/status/1254443931347099650 the slimy motherfucker will probably run for president because of course he is, and if i remember correctly Bolsonaro's impeachment before 2 years of mandate triggers immediate new elections judge who arrests ex president during election to rivals justice minister to president is literally the most corrupt and outrageous thing i can imagine so of course it's gonna happen, and corporate media will hail their moderate saviour unless we instead go full civil war and military dictatorship like bozo always said he wanted but lmao at that actually happening now
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Apr 28, 2020 03:20
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bagual posted:(...) if i remember correctly Bolsonaro's impeachment before 2 years of mandate triggers immediate new elections nope, if he gets impeached on his own, the VP gets the presidency, as expected. A new election only happens if both the presidency and the vice presidency gets vacated in the first 2 years.
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Apr 28, 2020 03:47
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So I guess Bolsonaro has finally bothered his handlers enough? I love the subtlety of it. —- Anyone know how Colombia’s doing? Duque seems really bad but my relatives in Medellin, who’re well off enough to not be too bothered by him or the virus are clearly not objective enough to give me good information.
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Apr 28, 2020 08:23
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wonder where all the Bolivia coup defenders disappeared to e: that includes every idiot who took OAS's word about alleged electoral fraud or insisted that we just had to wait and see to develop a more ~nuanced~ understanding of the obvious right wing coup as it was unfolding https://twitter.com/OVargas52/status/1256055503416942596 brugroffil fucked around with this message at 18:14 on May 1, 2020 |
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May 1, 2020 18:12
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brugroffil posted:wonder where all the Bolivia coup defenders disappeared to also worth noting that the handwringing about preventing the spread of corona are unfounded because Bolivia's shifting to a 'dynamic quarentine' in 10 days.
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May 1, 2020 19:31
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but what abuyt venezuela? theyre still the baddies. no, we dont need to talk about bolivia because maduro
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May 1, 2020 19:45
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brugroffil posted:wonder where all the Bolivia coup defenders disappeared to I'm sure they are still all happily gab gabbing about the final OAS report from a few months back and frankly don't give a poo poo about what is actually happening on the ground since their team won. Not that they would give a poo poo about the elections now being cancelled anyway.
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May 1, 2020 22:46
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Munin posted:I'm sure they are still all happily gab gabbing about the final OAS report from a few months back and frankly don't give a poo poo about what is actually happening on the ground since their team won. Not that they would give a poo poo about the elections now being cancelled anyway. the elections are back on: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/bolivia-parliament-passes-law-calling-elections-90-days-200429173600127.html quote:After weeks of uncertainty, Bolivia's opposition-controlled parliament approved a law late on Thursday calling for the presidential election to be held within 90 days. brugroffil posted:wonder where all the Bolivia coup defenders disappeared to I'm sure you would include me in this group. The evidence for massive, systemic electoral fraud is so almost undeniable anymore. I'm not sure Morales own party even seriously disputes it anymore. I don't know how I would respond if an election were so obviously stolen like that in my country -- I'm sure it would depend on the law. I would definitely be very pissed at something, and want something to happen.
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May 2, 2020 02:50
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Squalid posted:I think it provides helpful context as to explaining why so many Morales allies in the labor unions abandoned him. If you accept that the OAS report is accurate, and yes I know a lot of people won't, but if it is, then there is strong evidence the results of the election were significantly changed by an organized and systemic campaign of fraud at multiple levels. If the Bolivian government cannot address the irregularities the only reasonable response is to hold new elections. oh hey its the guy who defended the literal military coup that has resulted in the deaths of dozens people as well as the injury of hundreds. just ignore all of the independent analysis that said the OAS was lying outright and keep on supporting the white supremacist anez regime.
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May 2, 2020 03:26
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Squalid posted:the elections are back on: Actually, the evidence for electoral fraud has been thoroughly debunked. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...-suspect-fraud/
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May 2, 2020 03:46
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Sampatrick posted:oh hey its the guy who defended the literal military coup that has resulted in the deaths of dozens people as well as the injury of hundreds. just ignore all of the independent analysis that said the OAS was lying outright and keep on supporting the white supremacist anez regime. there's only one analysis that says the OAS is lying, and I'm not sure it is independent. It's also really lovely. All of it comes from The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a Washington based think-tank. I tried to look up their funding source but couldn't find it. I'm not sure if it is possible to find it, but it would be nice to follow the money. joepinetree posted:Actually, the evidence for electoral fraud has been thoroughly debunked. CEPR were the guys who commissioned this research. Most of its assertions make no sense or simply ignore huge parts of the story. For example they never address issues with violations of electronic security during the vote tally. Don't take it so serious just because it's in the Washington Post, this is the equivalent of posting a Heritage foundation report for evidence of anything. Here, have another Washington Post article that said the exact opposite: Yes, Bolivia’s 2019 election was problematic
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May 2, 2020 04:38
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Squalid posted:there's only one analysis that says the OAS is lying, and I'm not sure it is independent. It's also really lovely. All of it comes from The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), a Washington based think-tank. I tried to look up their funding source but couldn't find it. I'm not sure if it is possible to find it, but it would be nice to follow the money. loving lol at comparing the MIT Elections Data and Science Lab (where the authors are from) with the Heritage Foundation. You've been proven wrong at every single step of this coup, and it takes an insane amount of intellectual dishonesty to pretend this is even a conversation anymore.
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May 2, 2020 05:10
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For years the latin american hard right has been attacking the legitimacy of elections, Bolsonaro spent the whole campaign ranting about our "fraudulent electronic voting" only to shut up when he won, undoubtedly that was his plan B. Earlier this year he claimed again he actually won first turn and that the elections were rigged and yaddah yaddah obviously so he can "oversee" the electoral authority better. From 2012 onwards latin america had a right-wing wave either via elections, coups, coups and elections, mutually supportive of each other making things like the Paraguayan white coup and the Honduras situation go under the radar. You taking the OAS report prima facie when it's stacked by representatives of right wing governments just says you're gullible for regime change propaganda. You can try turning this into a credibility bothsidesing between some american think tank and OAS but unlike you we actually live here and have seen this poo poo before. They've literally kidnapped an indigenous mayor, lynched her in a public square, and you're giving the narrative they've been pushing the benefit of the doubt. Sorry bro, no dice.
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May 2, 2020 05:24
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joepinetree posted:loving lol at comparing the MIT Elections Data and Science Lab (where the authors are from) with the Heritage Foundation. We aren't comparing MIT Elections Data and Science Lab with Heritage. We are comparing CEPR with Heritage. This is a fair comparison because they are both explicitly partisan Washington Think-tanks. They are not an academic source of anything. This is obvious from the fact that this really lovely analysis was published without peer review. Just getting some guy from a real university put their name on something doesn't make it god's own truth. It is not serious. It only addresses specific statistical arguments which don't even cover most of the OAS's accusations of fraud! What have I been proven wrong about? Please tell me specifically, so that I can correct myself. If I recall I have made two basic arguments about Bolivia, 1) that there is substantial evidence of organized election fraud of magnitude great enough to change the result, and 2) that we should actually support you know, having real honest elections, and 3) That I'm not aware of any reason to believe the OAS is likely to fake election monitoring results. The second is a purely philosophical argument so if you disagree whatever, fine. I don't know why you'd care if the election was tampered with then. I'd really like to hear more on point 3, most people just assume its obvious for some reason. If you want to argue about the validity of the CEPR study though, go ahead tell me why. Here's the quick rebuttal to their argument from the guy who audited the OAS report. quote:On election day last October, the Bolivian Supreme Election Tribunal (TSE) published a preliminary vote count. With some 84 percent of polling stations counted, Morales led by 7.29 percent, well below the critical 10 percent margin. At this point, the preliminary vote count was suspended, which is not in itself problematic. The MIT analysis makes two main arguments: first, that an extrapolation of the vote trends is consistent with Morales eventually cresting the 10 percent margin (see Figures 1 and 2 of their report); and second, that there is no discontinuity in the data at the point where the preliminary count was halted. lmao no discontinuity indeed bagual posted:For years the latin american hard right has been attacking the legitimacy of elections, Bolsonaro spent the whole campaign ranting about our "fraudulent electronic voting" only to shut up when he won, undoubtedly that was his plan B. Earlier this year he claimed again he actually won first turn and that the elections were rigged and yaddah yaddah obviously so he can "oversee" the electoral authority better. I don't know why you even care to argue about this. We posted about this before Morales ouster and you said leftists should steal elections or otherwise take and hold power by whatever means is necessary. So it would seem the issue of whether there was actually fraud or not would be irrelevant to you. Democracy is such a subjective value. . . I don't fault you for not wanting all the same things I do like fair elections. You don't have to posture otherwise here.
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May 2, 2020 06:04
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OAS claims the sketchiness happens after the 84% interruption, yet if you drew a trend line using just the data up to 84% it looks like it would pass the 50% threshold anyway. Some really big brain thinking needed to get "widespread undeniable election fraud" from that limp OAS summary.
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May 2, 2020 06:32
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I'm loving dying at asserting the CEPR is like the Heritage Foundation while taking OAS as an unimpeachable source. You have to just love the taste of boot leather for that.
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May 2, 2020 07:07
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