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Xombie posted:The crosstab of people who hate both of them goes 40/7 for Biden those people aren't gonna turn out lol
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May 6, 2020 16:12
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FlamingLiberal posted:Yes and apparently those numbers are very similar to Hillary’s four years ago his numbers are pretty close to Clintons all around, except his enthusiasm is notably lower. ELECTABILITY!
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May 6, 2020 16:12
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Xombie posted:The crosstab of people who hate both of them goes 40/7 for Biden Do you believe that Biden's high unfavorables are not going to have a negative effect in November
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May 6, 2020 16:13
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Guys Biden is polling 43 to 42 against the fat cenobite from Hellraiser, victory is obvious.
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May 6, 2020 16:13
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Oh Snapple! posted:Do you believe that Biden's high unfavorables are not going to have a negative effect in November This poll that everyone is leaning on for his high unfavorables says they won't.
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May 6, 2020 16:14
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Xombie posted:This poll that everyone is leaning on for his high unfavorables says they won't. That's not what I'm asking.
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May 6, 2020 16:15
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Xombie posted:This poll that everyone is leaning on for his high unfavorables says they won't. It in fact does not say this, because this poll can't determine who's going to wake up, walk out the door, and go vote.
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May 6, 2020 16:16
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punishedkissinger posted:his numbers are pretty close to Clintons all around, except his enthusiasm is notably lower.
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May 6, 2020 16:17
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Oh Snapple! posted:That's not what I'm asking. Trump won among voters that did not like either him or Clinton. Some of these people do go out and vote. It's not really that unusual. It's probably even more likely if Trump leads the country during a massive crisis and is perceived to do a bad job.
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May 6, 2020 16:17
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Xombie posted:This poll has Biden beating Trump 47/44. That's about the same margin Hillary actually beat Trump by in the popular vote, right?
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May 6, 2020 16:18
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Sharkie posted:It in fact does not say this, because this poll can't determine who's going to wake up, walk out the door, and go vote. Epic High Five posted:those people aren't gonna turn out lol The poll has Trump losing to Biden with college educated whites and people in the age range of 50-64. It has Biden getting a plurality of the 35-49 range. edit: it has Trump, a Republican candidate for president, under 50% with men. Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:24 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 16:19
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seems like if Biden's commitment to opposing M4A and dedication to fiscal conservatism was truly a reflection of what the base believed, these numbers would be better!Pedro De Heredia posted:It feels like people are overcompensating for 2016 and arguing loudly that Biden is 100% certain to lose even though almost all evidence so far points to him winning. I think there's a chance he wins. I don't think there's a chance luck pulls him over the line though, and I don't think he's going to even cynically adopt popular policy positions or select a base-expanding VP, so I'm just not sure what the path is beyond chaos option Most critically, I don't think even if he does win we see any real change. Whatever progressive stuff he even intends to deliver has to survive both "WE'VE GOTTA PAY FOR ALL THIS COVID SPENDING" and then the debt ceiling argument that Pelosi negotiated out of this election year and into the first 6 months of whoever wins to help Trump and ensure they had a cudgel to push more austerity. He'll never be asked about it so I've just gotta go off his history on the matter and folks, it's grim
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May 6, 2020 16:19
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Biden has a lot of issues that, compounded with the lack of enthusiasm for him, could cause him to lose support if a big scandal emerges, or if he shows himself to not be up for the job. But it hasn't happened yet. The numbers don't suggest it's happening. A "Better" Democrat wouldn't be polling 60% to Trump's 35% or w/e.
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May 6, 2020 16:20
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Biden has a lot of issues that, compounded with the lack of enthusiasm for him, could cause him to lose support if a big scandal emerges  He...he raped a woman.
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May 6, 2020 16:24
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Saying “the guy currently leading in the polls might win” is significantly less stupid than saying “the guy who is currently leading the polls is 100% certain to lose in a landslide”. I don’t know why more people aren’t willing to admit that they don’t know the future and have to phrase everything as an absolute, especially in the presidential election immediately following one with a very surprising outcome. Guys... Biden might win. (I hope he doesn’t get the chance.) Trump also might win. Prognostication is a sucker’s game, and when you have a personal investment in the outcome it’s even worse.
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May 6, 2020 16:25
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Pedro De Heredia posted:Biden has a lot of issues that, compounded with the lack of enthusiasm for him, could cause him to lose support if a big scandal emerges, or if he shows himself to not be up for the job.
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May 6, 2020 16:25
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Sharkie posted:
Pedro's point seems to be that it hasn't affected his poll numbers.
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May 6, 2020 16:26
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Xombie posted:This poll has Biden beating Trump 47/44. Trailing behind clinton
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May 6, 2020 16:28
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Terror Sweat posted:Trailing behind clinton Clinton only won the popular vote by 2%.
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May 6, 2020 16:30
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Pedro De Heredia posted:It feels like people are overcompensating for 2016 and arguing loudly that Biden is 100% certain to lose even though almost all evidence so far points to him winning. Hilary had better polling against trump at this time.
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May 6, 2020 16:30
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Sharkie posted:If you're having this argument in a public, viewable, space, the best thing to do is just drop it. The argument itself is the point, trying to create the appearance of controversy and uncertainty. Just make some unrelated posts with your point. You're not going to convince those people because they don't give a poo poo about facts. And for spectators, they're going to walk away with "there's controversy about this issue" in their heads, rather than being convinced you're right. Just walk away. That's exactly right. It's a mistake to take their words literally. Like the situation with Kavanaugh/Biden, if they perceived mail-in voting to support their ideology above others, they would pick up the other side's argument in an instant.
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May 6, 2020 16:31
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spunkshui posted:Hilary had better polling against trump at this time. Can people saying this actually come up with the polls showing similar unfavorables for Trump?
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May 6, 2020 16:32
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Xombie posted:Pedro's point seems to be that it hasn't affected his poll numbers. yesterday you were making the argument that Biden isn't normalizing rape
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May 6, 2020 16:32
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My belief is that Biden's biggest weakness is something the party has basically refused to acknowledge since 2012 (well aside from Obama to Trump voters) - they're losing more and more latino voters every cycle. Biden here is ~10% behind Hillary who was ~10% behind 2012 Obama. Bernie was incredibly popular with them and Biden has done basically zero outreach, something I suspect is because they refuse to budge on any ICE or border camps reforms and orgs that are organizing within those communities want that front and center Even if you think this is overall a good poll for him, you've got to at least admit that those dreadful approval/enthusiasm numbers are worrying, and what's he do to address that? Things are gonna get a lot harder as the chuds really start ramping attacks up and hollering about covid and ebola infested caravans chugging straight for our border
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May 6, 2020 16:33
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Sharkie posted:If you're having this argument in a public, viewable, space, the best thing to do is just drop it. The argument itself is the point, trying to create the appearance of controversy and uncertainty. Just make some unrelated posts with your point. You're not going to convince those people because they don't give a poo poo about facts. And for spectators, they're going to walk away with "there's controversy about this issue" in their heads, rather than being convinced you're right. Just walk away. Listen, Mack, we just can’t afford socialism and my daddy didn’t personally sodomize Hitler to death in the streets of Berlin to hand this country over to the commies.
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May 6, 2020 16:34
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Trying to divine the future from polls is as useful as tea leaves right now. Like, I'm trying to come up with historical situations more volatile than a pandemic killing lots of people because states can't afford to or refuse to close things down and support people while they're closed while the federal government restricts most aid and the opposition party is running a candidate with a credible rape allegation who's bounced out of presidential elections 3 previous times due to lying or skeletons in his closet. Things to compare this to are few and far between and you're joking if you think you can take a poll and predict much about November. Gumball Gumption fucked around with this message at 16:39 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 16:34
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Well at least the Biden defenders agree it would be impossible for Bernie and the Bros to throw the election, so if Biden loses that’s one excuse you can’t use.
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May 6, 2020 16:39
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Epic High Five posted:My belief is that Biden's biggest weakness is something the party has basically refused to acknowledge since 2012 (well aside from Obama to Trump voters) - they're losing more and more latino voters every cycle. Biden here is ~10% behind Hillary who was ~10% behind 2012 Obama. Bernie was incredibly popular with them and Biden has done basically zero outreach, something I suspect is because they refuse to budge on any ICE or border camps reforms and orgs that are organizing within those communities want that front and center I don't have to admit that, because Trump's historically bad approval is counteracting it. The enthusiastic part of Trump's support is only people who would never vote for Biden, always vote, and vote GOP nearly always (unless there's a neo-Dixiecrat on the ballot). Trump is losing soft support with other demographics who vote in every election. Demographics that the GOP relies on to stay in power. White college grads have 53% disapproval for Trump. A normal politician could actually pivot to try and gain with these people between now and November. We know that Trump won't do that. Xombie fucked around with this message at 16:42 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 16:40
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Trabisnikof posted:Well at least the Biden defenders agree it would be impossible for Bernie and the Bros to throw the election, so if Biden loses that’s one excuse you can’t use. I do agree with this, actually.
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May 6, 2020 16:40
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worse with latinos and super low enthusiasm and approval overall, I dunno man it just seems hard to see that poll and feel fired up. We already know that support on paper doesn't translate to turnout if the general sentiment is that they're both badXombie posted:I don't have to admit that, because Trump's historically bad approval is counteracting it. The enthusiastic part of Trump's support is only people who would never vote for Biden, always vote, and vote GOP nearly always (unless there's a neo-Dixiecrat on the ballot). Trump is losing soft support with other demographics who vote in every election. Demographics that the GOP relies on to stay in power. White college grads have 53% disapproval for Trump. Trump might not but the GOP will, and I wouldn't count Trump out. He's a whole lot better at firing up his base than any Dem in power at the moment is. It's not just the Dems that will be running on RBG's seat, and Trump's got a record of delivering in that regard that Biden can't boast. It's not a freak coincidence that he's insanely popular within his own party or that he keeps getting more votes than Biden does in these primaries despite him being uncontested
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May 6, 2020 16:50
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Why are people surprised at a Biden/Trump poll that is 47-44? Trumps approval has been stable at 44-45 for ages. Even his approval in handling the pandemic has been around 45-50. Any poll that has him getting substantially less than that is way off. Even when Biden was polling better against him it was always a 47-41, or 48-42, which was over-counting undecideds, and undercounting Trump by a few points.
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May 6, 2020 16:51
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Epic High Five posted:My belief is that Biden's biggest weakness is something the party has basically refused to acknowledge since 2012 (well aside from Obama to Trump voters) - they're losing more and more latino voters every cycle. Biden here is ~10% behind Hillary who was ~10% behind 2012 Obama. Bernie was incredibly popular with them and Biden has done basically zero outreach, something I suspect is because they refuse to budge on any ICE or border camps reforms and orgs that are organizing within those communities want that front and center Possibly an even better indicator of where things are headed: 2008 Obama got 69.5m votes vs 2012 "Better things aren't desirable and you're loving morons for even expecting that" Obama who got 65.9. Hillary got 65.8 while running against a racist loving buffoon a decade later. But hey maybe Better Things Aren't Possible Or Desirable will win the day this time!
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May 6, 2020 16:55
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 Things are looking up! for Clinton!
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May 6, 2020 16:55
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TyrantWD posted:Why are people surprised at a Biden/Trump poll that is 47-44? It's not surprising, it's just really loving bad for Biden
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May 6, 2020 16:57
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Lemming posted:It's not surprising, it's just really loving bad for Biden But his number higher! (Ignore the margin of error please). Higher is good! And if he falls and shatters his hip, that'll be good, too. The pain meds will keep him cool, calm, and collected.
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May 6, 2020 17:01
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TyrantWD posted:Why are people surprised at a Biden/Trump poll that is 47-44? Moreover, I think 47-44 is pretty much exactly the same as the poll result you’d get if Bernie was the nominee. Bernie would have more room to grow that lead, but I don’t think Biden is destined to fall. I’m not sure what the level of awareness is among the public about Tara Reade, but it’s clear a very large number of Democratic voters are willing to believe it’s a false accusation, because it supports their political preference to do so. As for his generally lovely politics, I’m not sure Trump’s political skill set is well-suited for getting that message out. Name recognition is a hell of a drug. The media’s anti-Bernie blitz and the centrist voltron wouldn’t have worked without it. Biden is locked in people’s heads as “Obama, if he was an old white guy with hair plugs”. And Obama is locked in as “good President”.
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May 6, 2020 17:02
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Xombie posted:Can people saying this actually come up with the polls showing similar unfavorables for Trump? https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html\ Hillary is about 6 points ahead exactly 4 years ago. Edit: more like 6.5 points, but who's counting? Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 17:04 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 17:02
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Lemming posted:It's not surprising, it's just really loving bad for Biden Mhm. Most elections are decided by a margin of about 3%, which means 1.5% up or down. This is not unexpected. The problem is not approval or disapproval ratings, but the lack of enthusiasm. And I think what will matter most in the upcoming election will be that enthusiasm. Personally I think what will decide the election is if people can get mail in ballots. If everyone gets mail in ballots, the dems win. If you have to physically show up to most polling places, the republicans win. But if the vote is suppressed by the coronavirus and nothing is done about that, this hurts the legitimacy of Trump and the United States in general. This causes unrest. I don't think he'll care, but it'll cause a liberal backlash. Not just against Trump, but against the left as well, whose votes they feel entitled to while giving them nothing. Trump is in front of cameras every day. Biden is not. It's very easy to forget that we're in an election. This is because Biden's handlers are protecting him from the public as he's a man in mental decline. This is the exact opposite thing you want to do if you want to win, but their only shot at winning is to make sure Biden doesn't make constant errors in front of a live audience. Ice Phisherman fucked around with this message at 17:07 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 17:03
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FlamingLiberal posted:I said it in 2016 and I’ll say it again- the people that work at the DNC/party leadership/think tank lanyard people stand to lose so much more if someone like Bernie gets to be in charge as compared to Trump biggest of all is probably their delusion that they're the enlightened rulers making hard decisions for the ungrateful plebs
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May 6, 2020 17:17
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Cpt_Obvious posted:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html\ I'm talking about favorable/unfavorable polling, not just vote polling. The effect of favorable/unfavorable on eventual voting patterns is the subject of the discussion.
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May 6, 2020 17:24
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