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Gumball Gumption posted:Yeah, we've been picking lesser evils for about 240 years. The current result of this experiment is Donald Trump, President of the United States. Maybe it doesn't work.  We have absolutely have not been picking the lesser evil. We've picked evil more than once nor have we been duped into it.
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May 6, 2020 20:44
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Scientist Al Gore posted:Do you have any data to support this because as far I as I can tell Trump and his administration is getting absolutely massacred in media daily. This isn't like the past where stories about events like the immigration ban either this is something that impacts absolutely everyone and not even Fox News is able to spin it. Oh, word? Where can I see this sort of thing at?
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May 6, 2020 20:44
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Scientist Al Gore posted:Do you have any data to support this because as far I as I can tell Trump and his administration is getting absolutely massacred in media daily. This isn't like the past where stories about events like the immigration ban either this is something that impacts absolutely everyone and not even Fox News is able to spin it. FINALLY the mainstream media is going to criticize Trump
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May 6, 2020 20:45
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah, it might hinge on whether the "mainstream" media (networks, MSNBC, CNN, WaPo, NYT, basically) focus on Biden's negatives like they did with Clinton. There's a theory that they (and James Comey!) were only so hard on Clinton because they assumed she would definitely win, and they wanted to start her administration in a position of being "unbiased". I don't think the MSM thinks Trump is sure to lose this time, but they could still be rough on him if 1) it gets better ratings or 2) they actually do want Trump to win (for better ratings). Or, I guess, 3) stuff comes out about him that is too bad and undeniable to ignore. Which, apparently, we haven't reached yet, somehow. I think it's also safe to say that Clinton made far more enemies in government over her career than Biden has. He's less likely to get other government officials undermining him during the election a la Comey.
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May 6, 2020 20:45
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papa horny michael posted:Oh, word? Where can I see this sort of thing at? How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump's Response Even with Republicans, there's a downward trend. Not as much as anyone would like but a trend nonetheless.
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May 6, 2020 20:47
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Scientist Al Gore posted:
I mean, yeah. I was trying to be kind about how the awful priority of "lesser evil" works but if we're really going to get into it we rarely even pick the lesser evil. We're a nation that was built on the back of slavery and that was a legal caste society until the 1960's. We're evil. Our entire history is oppression. We can not get better because we were born sick. We are an evil country who often votes for the greatest evil we can.
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May 6, 2020 20:48
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Scientist Al Gore posted:How Americans View The Coronavirus Crisis And Trump's Response drat! Got em dead to rights. Between that and Nate Silver's sweaty tweeting that american exceptionalism will overcome covid, its been a banner month for pundits.
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May 6, 2020 20:49
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah, it might hinge on whether the "mainstream" media (networks, MSNBC, CNN, WaPo, NYT, basically) focus on Biden's negatives like they did with Clinton. There's a theory that they (and James Comey!) were only so hard on Clinton because they assumed she would definitely win, and they wanted to start her administration in a position of being "unbiased". I don't think the MSM thinks Trump is sure to lose this time, but they could still be rough on him if 1) it gets better ratings or 2) they actually do want Trump to win (for better ratings). Or, I guess, 3) stuff comes out about him that is too bad and undeniable to ignore. Which, apparently, we haven't reached yet, somehow. If you think that the media is going to treat Biden with kid gloves since they totally learned their lesson from the last election then you’re going to be in for a rude awakening. Again, this comes down to enthusiasm. If we’re generous, Biden’s voters are lukewarm. This will come back to bite him in the rear end. Even Obama’s closest advisors wrote an OpEd imploring Biden to start creating some kind of presence for the sake of his supporters. But we all know how that’s going, I don’t think I have to show you how lovely Biden’s campaign truly is. Xombie posted:I think it's also safe to say that Clinton made far more enemies in government over her career than Biden has. He's less likely to get other government officials undermining him during the election a la Comey. I’m sure Biden’s closest allies, the pro-segregation and free market fundamentalist Republicans, will totally go easy on him since they know each other so well.
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May 6, 2020 20:50
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COVID-19 posted:I’m sure Biden’s closest allies, the pro-segregation and free market fundamentalist Republicans, will totally go easy on him since they know each other so well. Compared to Hillary? They absolutely will. Hillary Clinton was the bogeyman of the GOP for years.
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May 6, 2020 20:53
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https://twitter.com/krystalball/status/1258081986624839682?s=19 Not much to say about the article that wasn't already said in the tweet. It's an absolute ghoulish opinion piece, but at least someone is finally being honest about it.
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May 6, 2020 20:54
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bobjr posted:I like how to the Biden team promising stuff and wanting to follow through on it is seen as bad and unreasonable
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May 6, 2020 20:54
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the_steve posted:https://twitter.com/krystalball/status/1258081986624839682?s=19
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May 6, 2020 20:55
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Mellow Seas posted:And voting for Biden doesn't have to mean that you like him; voting for the lesser evil is a very common and generally accepted way of voting. I've beaten this drum, and I know it summons Biden champions, but casting Biden as the "lesser evil" is definitely not the certainty you're selling it as here.
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May 6, 2020 20:56
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Xombie posted:The vast majority of Americans do not like politicians as a rule, even the ones that they vote for. A politician being popular like Obama was at the start of his first term is extremely rare. This is part of why enthusiasm as a predictive metric for voting isn't very reliable. Voting in presidential elections has hovered between 50-55% since 1972. 2008 was an outlier. Despite Trump's enthusiastic base, they were just as enthusiastic in 2016 and the turnout was still average. Part of the reason we are so hosed is because Obama literally betrayed the progressives that elected him. Turns out that electing a popular politician like Obama was a once-in-a-lifetime thing. It’s depressing to know that all we have to show for those 8 years is uh... a neoliberal healthcare plan that forces people to buy health insurance. That’s what his legacy was. That’s why so many American leftists and progressives are tepid on Biden just like they were on Hillary. Progressives and leftists know what we’re getting. Xombie posted:Compared to Hillary? They absolutely will. Hillary Clinton was the bogeyman of the GOP for years. If this is your bar, then it’s so low it’s on the ground.
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May 6, 2020 20:56
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The funniest thing to me about the last election cycle in retrospect was watching the media give legitimacy to Trump because they couldn't help but talk about him. Even if it was all negative, it was still all about him. The thing that I'm seeing this time is that Trump and his supporters now have 4 years of playing the media and ignoring things they don't want to hear, where as I'm over here about to not vote for Biden because he's a sex pest and it's barely been reported on. Roland Jones posted:Joe Biden and the Democrats have killed #MeToo. And they might be rewarded with the presidency for it. And then I see things like this and I know that even if it's supremely disappointing that it's that low, 30% of the people polled who are ostensible Biden voters think sexual assault is disqualifying. Granted, this poll frames the question as "proven" which is a bullshit word carrying a ton of weight there, but anyone thinking like Biden's victory is assured in light of everything and especially after 2016 is full of poo poo. Solanumai fucked around with this message at 21:01 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 20:56
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TyrantWD posted:After the convention maybe - while there was still a race going on, it was exactly like this. The fact that the race was much closer, and that the DNC were much more actively trying to shut down Bernie made for a pretty bitter primary fight, and concerns about uniting the party - which was mirrored here. but that "ton of posters" was opposed by the other "ton of posters", the clintonites your original post said she was the devil incarnate here in d&d, which made it sound like the bernie supporters were dominating, which they definitely weren't i mean you had various posters writing screeds in her defense every single day, and today there's a couple of you guys and almost all of you are so tepid in your biden support that you have to mention how you hate joe biden in every single post you make before saying "we gotta get rid of trump!", that certainly wasn't the case back then it's incomparable, it wasn't as crazy as the "hillary is light itself" lady but people were talking about republicans being a dead party
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May 6, 2020 20:57
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I think, at a certain point, Biden voters are going to have to come to terms with the fact that he may not win, especially considering that he is currently doing worse in most metrics than Hillary did this time 4 years ago. Will he win? Who knows. But if we walk away from this election with a blue loss, you will have to look yourself in the mirror and realize that you threw away 20 years of feminist progress for nothing. At the risk of hyperbole, you could be gambling away your soul. Edit: Xombie posted:Compared to Hillary? They absolutely will. Hillary Clinton was the bogeyman of the GOP for years. Obama is 100% as much of a bogeyman to the GOP as Hillary Clinton.
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May 6, 2020 20:58
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Xombie posted:Compared to Hillary? They absolutely will. Hillary Clinton was the bogeyman of the GOP for years. I mean, when he was vice president they promised that the president would never, ever fill the open Supreme Court seat and that any Democratic replacement wouldn't either, even if it meant leaving the seat empty for four years, so if that's the kind of "going easy" Biden can look forward to...
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May 6, 2020 20:59
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Xombie posted:Compared to Hillary? They absolutely will. Hillary Clinton was the bogeyman of the GOP for years. "The republicans will go (comparatively) easy on the dem candidate" is just delusional. I mean you might as well start talking about what the treants and faire-folk are going to do, it's that divoriced from reality.
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May 6, 2020 21:00
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moths posted:I've beaten this drum, and I know it summons Biden champions, but casting Biden as the "lesser evil" is definitely not the certainty you're selling it as here. Yeah, that’s fair, although I think Biden’s coalition is less evil than Trump’s. Basically, I’m voting for a candidate that I don’t like, in support of a party that is sometimes all right. It’s not inspiring, I know. Biden is totally capable of losing my vote if his campaign looks like it’s running for the door marked “austerity”, which is not terribly unlikely with Larry loving Summers around.
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May 6, 2020 21:01
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Scientist Al Gore posted:Do you have any data to support this because as far I as I can tell Trump and his administration is getting absolutely massacred in media daily. This isn't like the past where stories about events like the immigration ban either this is something that impacts absolutely everyone and not even Fox News is able to spin it. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-are-largely-unimpressed-with-trumps-handling-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/ This is a little old, but recent polls that showed up on the news are still hovering around 45% approval on handling the pandemic.
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May 6, 2020 21:03
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I think, at a certain point, Biden voters are going to have to come to terms with the fact that he may not win, especially considering that he is currently doing worse in most metrics than Hillary did this time 4 years ago. I actually don't think the comparison of those metrics will ultimately matter. Trump's soft support has vanished, and that's what he depended on when it came to election day to pull out a win. All you have to do is look at the actual voting of suburban voters for the last 3 years. It's consistently shifted blue. Republicans have lost 9 governorships, including in states he needs in order to win the electoral college. Voting for Trump as an unknown in 2016 is different to these voters than voting for who they know he is now. quote:Obama is 100% as much of a bogeyman to the GOP as Hillary Clinton. As much as Biden wants to be looked at as an Obama stand-in, I do not believe that he's seen as that by any significant amount of people.
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May 6, 2020 21:05
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Every democrat is a boogyman to the GOP because the GOP fights a total war.
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May 6, 2020 21:07
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Xombie posted:I actually don't think the comparison of those metrics will ultimately matter. Trump's soft support has vanished, and that's what he depended on when it came to election day to pull out a win. All you have to do is look at the actual voting of suburban voters for the last 3 years. It's consistently shifted blue. Republicans have lost 9 governorships, including in states he needs in order to win the electoral college. Trump's soft support crystallized into hard support. It hasn't flipped.
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May 6, 2020 21:14
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Xombie posted:I actually don't think the comparison of those metrics will ultimately matter. Trump's soft support has vanished, and that's what he depended on when it came to election day to pull out a win. All you have to do is look at the actual voting of suburban voters for the last 3 years. It's consistently shifted blue. Republicans have lost 9 governorships, including in states he needs in order to win the electoral college. Also, I would point to 2010 where Republicans swept the mid terms and still lost their attempt to oust Obama in 2012. Again, these are far from certainties, and Obama had a much larger margin of victory to erode. However, Biden is doing an excellent job dissuading loyal democrats. Xombie posted:As much as Biden wants to be looked at as an Obama stand-in, I do not believe that he's seen as that by any significant amount of people.
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May 6, 2020 21:14
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I'm not telling anyone to vote for Biden. But just for no reason, look at how well he can color: He stayed almost entirely within the lines! Biden is well-positioned to finish the rest of this page with very few mistakes. But I'm not telling anyone to vote for him so don't accuse me of that.
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May 6, 2020 21:14
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Mellow Seas posted:Yeah, that’s fair, although I think Biden’s coalition is less evil than Trump’s. Basically, I’m voting for a candidate that I don’t like, in support of a party that is sometimes all right. It’s not inspiring, I know. Well if that's the case then you can just save yourself a couple of months of having to defend the indefensible and go NoJoe right now.
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May 6, 2020 21:18
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Gumball Gumption posted:Every democrat is a boogyman to the GOP because the GOP fights a total war. The GOP fights to win. The Dems fight for imaginary points that only matter to them so they can claim the moral victory.
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May 6, 2020 21:22
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Cerebral Bore posted:Well if that's the case then you can just save yourself a couple of months of having to defend the indefensible and go NoJoe right now. I really loving want Trump to stop being President, so I'm willing to tolerate a lot. But there is a limit. Trump is unlikely to go for full austerity because he's probably one of the least austere people that ever existed, and is unwilling to do anything he doesn't perceive as popular. Considering where our deficits are going to end up after this year, a deficit hawk could really gently caress up everything real fast.
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May 6, 2020 21:24
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Mellow Seas posted:Right now I consider him to be eyeing the door, maybe widening his eyes a bit, maybe he shifted a foot in that direction. But it's absolutely my #1 concern with any mainstream Democrat, because it was Obama's most harmful tendency, at least domestically, and I don't think most people in the party realize that. And if they ever did realize it, I'm afraid they've forgotten. Joe Biden is 100% going to go full on hell austerity, hth.
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May 6, 2020 21:25
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NY State just really doesn't want Berniecrats to vote https://twitter.com/KlasfeldReports/status/1258126872380088321
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May 6, 2020 21:25
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Sharkie posted:I'm not telling anyone to vote for Biden. But just for no reason, look at how well he can color: Who printed that out? They didn't get the color lined up with the sheet. e: Oh there's two RBA Starblade fucked around with this message at 21:30 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 21:26
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FlamingLiberal posted:NY State just really doesn't want Berniecrats to vote Oh no, see. But it's the Republicans that mess with the polls. Democrats, by their blue nature, cannot be corrupt or evil. My dialectic allows for only one villain, and it's Donald Trump. Therefore, his opposition must be good folks, or at least folks good enough to vote for. Cpt_Obvious fucked around with this message at 21:31 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 21:28
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Mellow Seas posted:Right now I consider him to be eyeing the door, maybe widening his eyes a bit, maybe he shifted a foot in that direction. But it's absolutely my #1 concern with any mainstream Democrat, because it was Obama's most harmful tendency, at least domestically, and I don't think most people in the party realize that. And if they ever did realize it, I'm afraid they've forgotten. "When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags" You're wearing rose-colored glasses.
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May 6, 2020 21:29
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The party that's appealing court decisions keeping them from suppressing 100% of the votes in NYS is going to finally do something about voter suppression right
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May 6, 2020 21:31
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Sharkie posted:"When you're wearing rose-colored glasses, all the red flags just look like flags" I’m not gonna take this thread’s advice on anything, but Biden has six months to convince me himself. When it’s like, October, you can try shaking me a little harder. What’s really hosed up is that austerity is probably not going to be even mentioned in passing in this dumb campaign. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:34 on May 6, 2020 |
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May 6, 2020 21:32
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I'm not sure what you mean by soft support. Swing voters? Moderate republicans? Swing voters, independents, white college grads, suburbanites. Trump won these people over in 2016. They have consistently polled against him since he became president and turned out to not be joking about being a loving idiot who doesn't even want to do his job and just wants to be on TV. These people hate Trump because of his constant instability. They hate all politicians, but they would rather have politicians not affect their daily lives. quote:Also, I would point to 2010 where Republicans swept the mid terms and still lost their attempt to oust Obama in 2012. Again, these are far from certainties, and Obama had a much larger margin of victory to erode. However, Biden is doing an excellent job dissuading loyal democrats. This is another metric comparison that doesn't really work out. Obama's personal approval ratings were much higher than Trump. Obama's Gallup disapproval only broke 50% once in his first term, in 2011. When Obama was reelected, his approval/disapproval rating was was 52/44. Thats much lower than in 2008, but higher than Trump has ever had. The fact is, Obama won the popular vote twice. People liked him personally. There's much more of a distaste of Trump now, both personally and politically. The GOP was assisted by gerrymandering in 2010, and yet despite the same factors favoring them in 2018 they severely underperformed. They somehow underperformed even worse with candidates that Trump stumped for. The GOP started racking up losses the first year of Trump's term.
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May 6, 2020 21:36
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Maybe they don't want more voters "choking to death on their own blood".
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May 6, 2020 21:37
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Mellow Seas posted:I’m not gonna take this thread’s advice on anything, but Biden has six months to convince me himself. Austerity will certainly come up in relation to COVID-19.
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May 6, 2020 21:40
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RBA Starblade posted:Maybe they don't want more voters "choking to death on their own blood". They're moving to vote-by-mail. They're not canceling any of the other primaries, just the presidential one. It's 100% an attempt to suppress the vote, nothing more, and pretending otherwise just proves that you're not being genuine. Though those quotation marks, which I assume represent you quoting someone's criticism of Biden's campaign telling people in other states to go vote in-person in the primaries and lying about what the CDC recommended, imply that as well and strongly suggest you're just being spiteful here.
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May 6, 2020 21:44
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