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Popero posted:Could Natalie not buy two idols for herself? Can't be a surprise for anyone on the jury to see it's them and Michele and that's it. Would love a double idol play at 6. Natalie says, "My token count before making these purchases was 14...I bought peanut butter, I bought 3 advantages. I'm going in stacked in advantages, 3 total that's the max I can get. I basically have 6 tokens left. Plus I bought this idol way back when. It's still good and still ready to be put to use...but I can only walk into the game with one. So that's why I decided to buy a 2nd idol - not for me, it's for Tyson. And spread the protection between Tyson and I, hoping that one of us get back in and...wreck shop back there. "
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May 7, 2020 03:32
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That's a good point. I don't understand why they don't have them come back at 9 or something. The finale is absurd, even though I would laugh forever if she convinced them to take out Sarah and Tony and won the game. e: Gotcha, thanks.
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May 7, 2020 03:33
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lmao Nick totally deserved that vote. I never felt like he was playing for first place in the last few weeks. It seemed like he kept getting offered chances to get chance his position and kept taking the 4th place spot instead.
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May 7, 2020 03:35
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Michele ripping him was loving great. His legacy has nosedived.
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May 7, 2020 03:39
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Having not seen his original season, I cannot fathom how Nick won before. Michele, meanwhile, is way more on top of things than I gave her credit for. She's not meant for breakneck chaotic Survivor, but it's not because she can't keep up / doesn't know what's going on; she just isn't the type of person to make moves just to make em
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May 7, 2020 04:55
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I don’t understand how everyone seems to think Tony’s on their side. Does Tony have a special 2 person alliance with everyone or are Tony and Sarah really good at keeping Cops R Us a secret? Why is Denise never a possible option to flip? What do people think their ability to win the game is? Michele seems like the only non-Tony person who actually understands their own position. Presumably, Sarah thinks she can beat Tony through better jury management, because I can’t believe she thinks the jury sees her as the person in control. I’m assuming Denise is playing for a solid 4 with Tony, Ben, Sarah, and herself and hopes Tony goes at at fire and she can win against Ben and Sarah. I have no idea what Ben thinks his plan is. Jeremy and Nick seemed to just have a fundamental misunderstanding of people’s relationships. Like Nick had a perfect opportunity to blindside Tony at the Jeremy vote: Denise and Sarah vote Michele; Ben and Tony vote Jeremy; Nich, Michele, and Jeremy vote Tony. I almost get Nick wanting Jeremy out over Ben, but why wasn’t Tony an option?
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May 7, 2020 05:36
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Remember last week how everybody (including and especially me was like) "aw jeez, even with an idol i just don't see how tony gets to the end, he's just too much of a frontrunner, shucks" and this week he loses two challenges and there's not a hint of a vote cast his way
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May 7, 2020 06:07
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garthoneeye posted:Jeremy and Nick seemed to just have a fundamental misunderstanding of people’s relationships. Yeah, I just don't get where Nick thought he was in that Tony/Sarah/Ben/Denise/Nick group. I mean there's nowhere to go in that group. Who does he think his final three of that group would be? Obviously everyone is taking Ben to the end as a goat because I'm not sure what he's going to claim other than being on right side of every vote but the Sophie one so far. But does he really think Tony wants to go to the final three with him? He can't possibly think that either Sarah or Denise would take him. And another thing I can't figure out is why Denise is so loyal to Ben. Is it just because they started on the same tribe? I don't really recall any clips about her and Ben really bonding, but I'll admit that sometimes I've only been half watching during this season.
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May 7, 2020 06:14
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I think its just all ego and arrogance. They all think they're playing great games and even when Michelle as the one rational grounded one (mostly probably because she's been playing from the bottom the whole game) confronts them with the flaws in their games they just get annoyed and dismiss it. Sarah balking that Tony would beat her strikes me as the same basic vein of arrogance of Nick taking out Jeremy because he'd be a F2 threat but having no answer for how the gently caress he gets there without Jeremy. They believe they're playing great games and can't accept the idea that they're being outplayed or that the Jury won't see what they've done. You could actually see how shocked and bothered the players were that Michelle won Immunity. They just had completely discounted her as a player and were shell shocked. Egos are unhinged in that game right now. There's something about Nick I just don't like so I really enjoyed Michelle chewing his rear end out. It was very satisfying seeing Michelle win immunity, Nick thinking this was good for him, and then him getting immediately voted out. The best part is this frames him quitting social media or whatever right as his dumbass game moves all stacked up in his hilarious loss. Moron. On the other hand Ethan and Yul Zen Dream Team. "I'm inclined to use my tokens on an advantage in the challenge." I love Yul. "He should just drop it and run." I love that the Edge of Extinction challenge strategy has just evolved into "Get him, Nat!" Natalie having so many tokens she was maxxing out stacked advantages and just buying extra idols to bribe jury votes. If Nat wins her way back in I'm pretty sure I'm actively rooting for it. Its gonna be so sad when she doesn't win the challenge. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 06:24 on May 7, 2020 |
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May 7, 2020 06:21
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TMMadman posted:And another thing I can't figure out is why Denise is so loyal to Ben. Is it just because they started on the same tribe? I don't really recall any clips about her and Ben really bonding, but I'll admit that sometimes I've only been half watching during this season. TMMadman posted:Obviously everyone is taking Ben to the end as a goat
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May 7, 2020 06:39
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I don’t personally enjoy watching Tony, so I don’t particularly want him to win; but no one else is playing anywhere close to as good a game, unless the jury perception of Tony is significantly worse than we’ve been led to believe. Tony’s game has been seriously impressive. I always thought that Tony’s first win involved a little bit of too much power with the super idol and other players not playing to win, but this season has me reevaluating that. Tony has the ability to convince people that what’s good for Tony is somehow also good for them that I can barely believe. Even if Tony doesn’t manage to pull this one out, I’ve changed my mind: Tony is a scary good Survivor player, one of the absolute best.
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May 7, 2020 06:41
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I would probably die of laughter if ben lost fire making to michele.
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May 7, 2020 06:52
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Because he has a lot of flash and pizzazz, people really underestimate Tony's social game. Everyone seems to like him on both seasons. Even Yul was like this guy seems pretty cool and they could not be any more different as people.
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May 7, 2020 06:54
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I don't really like Tony and I think people are kind of overselling his game, but he's definitely played well the last few weeks (and by extension all season since he had to lay low to get to this place) and even though he got a little lucky by that immunity last week every winner gets lucky somewhere. So if he won I'd grumble a little because I wouldn't be upset or anything. He's earned it. I think Nick is probably the only winner I would have been really annoyed by. Just because he comes off so smug and self important to me and I think he played a terrible game so it would have been annoying to see it justified and proven good. I guess I'd be kind of annoyed if some of the Edge of Extinctioners win. Like of Boston Rob or Parv or Tyson came in and won I wouldn't be mad but that would be kind of lame. Of course I'm totally rooting for Nat so its not really about the Edge of Extinction. Its just like, what's the story? Nat's got one and I'm into it. Tony's got one and I'm not into it but I get it. Michelle has one. Denise, Sarah, and Ben... sorta do? Everyone else meh. Oh gently caress, am I edit reading?
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May 7, 2020 07:01
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Yeah, but it feels like it's more than that for Denise.
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May 7, 2020 07:03
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One thing about Tony’s game is that it’s hard to know how much of what he’s doing is calculated vs. his manic energy just being a really good fit for this era of Survivor. It’s obviously an approach that people don’t love to play alongside - multiple players have spoken about how exhausting it is, Jeremy got pissed off after his boot, Sarah reamed him out for the Sophie move. But the moment Tony went into chaos mode, you’d think everyone would jump at the opportunity to get him out of the game, and he hasn’t even come close to emerging as The Obvious Boot at any point. I wonder if he has a better read on people‘s personalities than you might initially think (in terms of who’ll be willing to work with him even after he throws a wrench in their game, who’s likely to give into pressure if you approach them to flip a vote at a certain point in time, etc.) The idea of Sarah not considering Tony the odds-on favorite to win if he makes the finals is baffling to me. Maybe there’s more personal relationship stuff we haven’t been shown, but even if you earnestly believed you were playing the best game, a passing familiarity with the past 10+ seasons of the show should tell you the guy who’s played a loud, flashy game is a threat to win. And honestly, I’m usually pretty critical of juries focusing on a “resume” without considering the context in which moves are made...but even to me, Tony voting Sophie out and facing no repercussions from Sarah feels like a legitimate trump card if they’re in the finals next to each other
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May 7, 2020 07:04
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xbilkis posted:But the moment Tony went into chaos mode, you’d think everyone would jump at the opportunity to get him out of the game, and he hasn’t even come close to emerging as The Obvious Boot at any point. He was a time or two but don't forget he won three straight immunities and used those votes to draw tribal lines and solidify his alliance with people who (apparently) are actually going to take him to final four.
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May 7, 2020 07:06
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I definitely would not have considered Tony to be a potential favorite to win this thing at the start of the season.
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May 7, 2020 07:09
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After last week I thought he had the opportunity to make some moves but no, yeah, Nick dumb. "This vote is based on thinking multiple moves ahead" *votes out the only person who will help him get ahead*. Like somebody said, just bad awareness of the state of tribe relationships. The editors were loving his downfall this week. Tony's got a really magical combination of Redemption Island Boston Rob and One World Kim Spradlin going on right now where he's godfathering everything but yet remaining remarkably invisible (epitomized by the Spynest™). It would be an incredible win, and his chances seem really good - he has the idol and everybody is going to be terrified of the EoE returnee and Michelle. Plus I guess Sarah and Ben think they're actually playing grandmaster chess out there. It's hard to gauge her shot at winning but Michelle is super charming. She's tough AF, but also graceful and smooth, and generally handles herself really well in difficult situations. I was not a fan during her season, but I can see how she endears herself to people to easily.
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May 7, 2020 07:10
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I don't find Tony's game terrible calculated. I think he's doing a very good job reading the tribe dynamics and then is cutting lines he sees. That's smart and he's clearly reading the game better than Sarah, Nick, or Ben... and I think probably Denise. But like I think he's largely playing reactively and spontaneously. Which is how he his entire game strategy shifted from "I need to keep Jeremy" to voting him out in the same cycle. Tony's just very good at playing on the fly like this and its working especially well since he's surrounded by people who are more methodical and he's frustrating them or letting them get a false sense of superiority.
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May 7, 2020 07:14
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xbilkis posted:The idea of Sarah not considering Tony the odds-on favorite to win if he makes the finals is baffling to me. Maybe there’s more personal relationship stuff we haven’t been shown, but even if you earnestly believed you were playing the best game, a passing familiarity with the past 10+ seasons of the show should tell you the guy who’s played a loud, flashy game is a threat to win. Sarah won her season in a Jury with Troyzan and Brad Culpepper, so I think she's possibly thinking that having Tony & Ben next to her in the Final 3 could result in a similar outcome? That being said, I have to assume that everyone else remaining would attempt to vote out Tony at the Final 5 vote. He's a clear shield to use to get through that one...
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May 7, 2020 07:15
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The Edge returnee is gunna go after Tony. They will have had nothing to talk about except how great his game has been. Saying that, he has an idol and the safety net of fire making for 2 of the 3 tribals.
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May 7, 2020 07:25
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Vernacular posted:After last week I thought he had the opportunity to make some moves but no, yeah, Nick dumb. "This vote is based on thinking multiple moves ahead" *votes out the only person who will help him get ahead*. Like somebody said, just bad awareness of the state of tribe relationships. The editors were loving his downfall this week. I get what his thinking was, which is that sitting next to Ben is vastly superior than sitting next to Jeremy at FTC. But yeah, it doesn't matter if you can't get there in the first place because you can't get the votes.
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May 7, 2020 07:26
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Or as Michelle would say "I'd love to hear what your path to the final is." Michelle's probably not winning this season but she's probably come out the best of any player on this cast in terms of legacy. She came in considered by most to be the weakest of the winners and I think she's really won a lot of respect with people despite never having any power whatsoever.
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May 7, 2020 07:28
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STAC Goat posted:I don't find Tony's game terrible calculated. I think he's doing a very good job reading the tribe dynamics and then is cutting lines he sees. That's smart and he's clearly reading the game better than Sarah, Nick, or Ben... and I think probably Denise. But like I think he's largely playing reactively and spontaneously. Which is how he his entire game strategy shifted from "I need to keep Jeremy" to voting him out in the same cycle. It doesn't seem done on the fly to me at all. He has done an incredible job of reining in his bad habits and optimizing his environment. As I have said before, Jeremy was the perfect ally of convenience since Tony could either keep him around as a shield and a number, or cut him loose to help make his allies feel more empowered/comfortable, and neither was a bad option. He has also been pretty methodical at eliminating threats to his partnerships (Wendell, Sophie, Kim, Nick) before they have a chance to gain power. These are all signs of a calculated player. I mean, has he made a single post-merge mistake? I feel like you are shortchanging him here.
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May 7, 2020 07:41
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I dunno. If you think I'm shortchanging him maybe I am. I don't think "methodical" or "calculating" is a value judgment, its just an approach. I think he's playing a very spontaneous, free flowing game and I think that's hard to do and he's VERY good at it. Tony's long term approach was basically "wait for it... wait for it... wait for it... ok, flip the game upside down!" And its worked out very well for him, in no small part because he's done a great job reading relationships and pushing people into corners where they have no real choice but to do with he wants even if they hate it. But I don't think he's mapped poo poo out or played 3 moves ahead or anything. But that's not always a good way to play (I think it can often be a terrible way to play) and Tony's way is working. Like, Rob is a "calculating" and "methodical" player. And that not only didn't work but basically was a detriment. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 07:59 on May 7, 2020 |
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May 7, 2020 07:51
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Who is playing a "three steps ahead" game? What does that look like, in comparison to a spontaneous game? We can't know for sure when someone plays a three steps ahead game (at best they claim so in interviews and we believe them), but who would you say has likely played such a game in the past? All I can think of as a counterexample is someone like Earl who admits to knowing nothing about the game before arriving, but even in that case he learned up quick and started thinking beyond the next vote.
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May 7, 2020 08:02
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Yeah, and in that respect "calculated" probably wasn't the right word to use when I was wondering about Tony's game. Maybe "purposeful?" Like, is he pinging back and forth between "I'm going to go out of my way to save Jeremy" and "I'm going to vote Jeremy out" with the knowledge that his erratic play puts people on their heels and he's good at navigating chaos, or is he just impulsive and things happen to be breaking right for him? I guess the distinction is maybe meaningless in terms of assessing his "quality" as a player. No matter what level of consciousness he's operating at, he's successfully bending the game to his will. I'm mostly just curious how he would react if he had sustained heat coming his way or if players were less forgiving of chaotic gameplay — would he be able to go back to slowplaying it, or would his game fall apart because this is inherently who he is while playing Survivor?
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May 7, 2020 08:06
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i see no way that natalie doesn't come back. 3 advantages is incredible and she's already a powerhouse. that said i like natalie but her winning would be... ridiculous. i can't get behind that as a satisfying win. more satisfying than ben maybe.
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May 7, 2020 08:08
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Natalie's winning would be narratively satisfying in that the theme of the season would be "Something promising ruined by bad production decisions" (also Natalie is cool)
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May 7, 2020 08:12
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xbilkis posted:Natalie's winning would be narratively satisfying in that the theme of the season would be "Something promising ruined by bad production decisions" 
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May 7, 2020 08:19
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It would however be funny to have yet another season where the winner and first boot was N. Anderson
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May 7, 2020 08:28
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I don't terribly care about like the "sanctity of the game" or anything and I think Survivor is inherently "Unfairness The Game" so like it wouldn't bother me if Nat won. I didn't like Chris' win because I wasn't interested or impressed by his journey or game. Nat's got a good story so if she can keep balling out to win that would be fun to me. I can't see a Denise, Sarah, or Ben win being more satisfying than that at this point. They might be "more deserving" but "deserving" is a tiny bit of a naive idea for Survivor.pokeyman posted:Who is playing a "three steps ahead" game? What does that look like, in comparison to a spontaneous game? We can't know for sure when someone plays a three steps ahead game (at best they claim so in interviews and we believe them), but who would you say has likely played such a game in the past? I don't think there are many winners who like "played three steps ahead" because that's next to impossible to do in Survivor. The best cases would probably be people like Rob and Kim and you can chalk a lot of that up to bad casts. Maybe Todd? Hatch? There's a lot more players who play "three steps ahead" but usually it fails like it did for Nick. You usually need a lot of fluidity and adaptability to keep up with the game. Tony is very good at that and its why he won a season and is the favorite to win another. Like I said, "methodical" and "calculating" aren't value judgements to me. They're just adjectives about style and approach. I just think that when things DO work out for a "calculating" win like Kim's it looks all that more impressive across the big picture when you look back so then it gets elevated. But like the counter to that kind of win would be Natalie who had to scramble hard in the end game and make something out of nothing and I think that's plenty impresive. STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:52 on May 7, 2020 |
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May 7, 2020 08:48
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I wouldn’t necessarily say that Tony is planning things out, but I also wouldn’t say it’s chaotic. In both this season and Cagayan Tony worked with both alliances, in particular to try and keep the perceived biggest threat of the opposing alliance around while cutting people from his side who aren’t who he wants at the end. This makes it harder for forces to align against Tony because even if Tony’s gone there’s still a huge threat in the game and we can wait to get Tony after that guys gone. It also allows Tony to get rid of people in his alliance who aren’t primarily loyal to him. I don’t know how much of this is a defined strategy for Tony versus how much it is instinctual, but I don’t think that really matters.
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May 7, 2020 08:52
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I think the chaos isn't really about Tony's decision making, just the state of the game that his decisions create. Tony's obviously got thought out reasons to make the moves he does. But they also tend to gently caress poo poo up and he's the best navigator through the chaos.
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May 7, 2020 08:56
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I think if Nat (or any early edge boot) gets back in they have a shot to win. They will have had around a month to bond with the jury and in the jury’s eyes, voting for the edge returnee validates them staying on that island.
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May 7, 2020 09:11
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Count me in with the people who don’t normally like Tony’s game, but am impressed with what he is doing now. All these former winners left feel like his goats. I am legit impressed with Natalie, too. Despite being voted out first it feels like she still played a hell of a game.
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May 7, 2020 11:09
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So after that episode we now know why Denise didn’t get any airtime. She refused to scramble and ‘fight’ and Probst HATES that. It’d be great to see Natalie come back and win. She really needs to take out Tony and Sarah to make it easier.
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May 7, 2020 12:20
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They're taking a break from EoE after this right? Maybe because both late returnees have won so they can't deny problems with the concept 
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May 7, 2020 12:35
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thinking about probst's comments that this is "the best season ever" and knowing exactly what type of seasons/players he tends to push/get excited for, i really hope we're not looking at an edge returnee going on a run and winning because they were a challenge beast or THEY PUSHED THEMSELVES TO THEIR ABSOLUTE LIMIT
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May 7, 2020 12:40
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