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pokeyman
Nov 26, 2006

That elephant ate my entire platoon.

Brock Samson posted:

Lol Natalie you did this to yourself.

?

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Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

I mean, that's your view of EoE. That doesn't mean its the jury's.
I think Chris Underwood winning was a combination of Gavin and Julie being underwhelming and him going king mode the whole end game. He survived a vote, and he took out Devins himself. Nat never survived a vote and sat out fire. I don’t think my view of EoE necessarily clashes at all with any jury’s!

Brock Samson
May 13, 2003

I let you know me, see me. I gave you a rare gift, but you didn't want it.


Letting Tony get this hero's speech from Sarah in front of the jury. Putting Cops'r'Us against each other guaranteed one would do it for the other.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

That legitimately made me tear up at the end

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy

That display was the nail in the coffin


WE THINK

Brock Samson
May 13, 2003

I let you know me, see me. I gave you a rare gift, but you didn't want it.

16-0-0 baybeeeee

Stokes
Jun 13, 2003

Maybe Kris can come in, and we can throw M-80s at his asshole.

SLICK GOKU BABY posted:

Nat shows up dismantled them with minimal effort.

If by minimal effort you mean an overabundance of gimmicks instead of any strategy whatsoever, then yeah ok, minimal effort.

Stokes fucked around with this message at 03:26 on May 14, 2020

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.


I feel like people got REAL mad at Nat as the idea of her winning felt more and more possible tonight.

Hindsight being 20/20 I'm sure she'd put Michelle in there. But like, Sarah nearly smoked Tony. Firemaking challenges are screwy.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

Fast Luck posted:

I think Chris Underwood winning was a combination of Gavin and Julie being underwhelming and him going king mode the whole end game. He survived a vote, and he took out Devins himself. Nat never survived a vote and sat out fire. I don’t think my view of EoE necessarily clashes at all with any jury’s!

She also misplayed her second idol and Michelle only got saved by the grace of Ben trying to give Sarah some more ammo at FTC

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
Man, nobody thought Tony had a chance of winning at the beginning of this season. He was at DOA as Rob was in most people's minds

Max
Nov 30, 2002

If I was Purple Kelly or anyone who has ever gotten an unfavorable edit due to not being able to hack it out there, I think I'd be really annoyed that Ben was given a good edit for that sacrifice.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




if Tony loses from here I'm never watching this show again lol

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
I'm not mad at Nat, she didn't create EoE

She's a challenge MONSTER but stepped all over her own dick in basically every strategic decision all season

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

Nat should’ve used the idol on Michelle and gotten Sarah out. That’s where all of this fell apart.

If you’re at that five with a HII you need to be smart enough to realize your only real shot at winning is to sit with Michelle and Ben.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

JesusSinfulHands posted:

Man, nobody thought Tony had a chance of winning at the beginning of this season. He was at DOA as Rob was in most people's minds

They key difference:

Tony knew he was a target and changed his game so he could get far enough to go chaos mode

Rob tried the same Robfather strategy and got voted out before the merge for it

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

IcePhoenix posted:

She also misplayed her second idol and Michelle only got saved by the grace of Ben trying to give Sarah some more ammo at FTC

I really don't get this. What should she have done with the idol? Why was Michelle critical to her game? Maybe Ben wins that F4 challenge but like that doesn't seem like any kind of clear mismove to me besides the generic idea that you shouldn't tell people you have an idol.

pokeyman
Nov 26, 2006

That elephant ate my entire platoon.

Brock Samson posted:

Letting Tony get this hero's speech from Sarah in front of the jury. Putting Cops'r'Us against each other guaranteed one would do it for the other.

The other matchups don't seem much better. Michele wins fire and caps another quiet season of somehow never catching votes. Maybe if Michele loses you get Sarah and Tony splitting votes? Maybe?

Shneak
Mar 6, 2015

A sad Professor Plum
sitting on a toilet.
https://twitter.com/robcesternino/status/1260757662087540736

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
Going to predict some jury votes real quick
Tony: Sarah, Ben, Denise, Nick, Jeremy, Kim, Sophie, Tyson, Adam, Wendell, Yul, Rob, Ethan, Danni, Amber
Natalie: Parvati
Michele:

Yes I'm serious. I think it's a total blowout. Feel free to quote me if I'm totally wrong

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

STAC Goat posted:

I really don't get this. What should she have done with the idol? Why was Michelle critical to her game? Maybe Ben wins that F4 challenge but like that doesn't seem like any kind of clear mismove to me besides the generic idea that you shouldn't tell people you have an idol.

There are five people left, there’s a final three, two of them you have almost no chance of beating. Why would you keep both of them and guarantee one of the two people you have the least chance of beating remains.

Yea, you risk going home but not taking that risk virtually assures you lose the game.

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
That breakfast looks fantastic

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

sportsgenius86 posted:

Nat should’ve used the idol on Michelle and gotten Sarah out. That’s where all of this fell apart.

If you’re at that five with a HII you need to be smart enough to realize your only real shot at winning is to sit with Michelle and Ben.

I really can't imagine gambling that hard on an idol read.

No one thought Sarah was a big winner 3 hours ago. If Nat made a mistake it was probably lighting a fire under Sarah to play the jury. She hoped it would fire up Sarah to make a move but it kind of backfired. Or could have if Sarah had won the fire challenge.

IcePhoenix
Sep 18, 2005

Take me to your Shida

STAC Goat posted:

I really don't get this. What should she have done with the idol? Why was Michelle critical to her game? Maybe Ben wins that F4 challenge but like that doesn't seem like any kind of clear mismove to me besides the generic idea that you shouldn't tell people you have an idol.

I don't think she necessarily made the wrong move. But the problem is she needs as much resume building as possible in the last three days of the game so missing on that hurts her a lot

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

STAC Goat posted:

I really can't imagine gambling that hard on an idol read.

No one thought Sarah was a big winner 3 hours ago. If Nat made a mistake it was probably lighting a fire under Sarah to play the jury. She hoped it would fire up Sarah to make a move but it kind of backfired. Or could have if Sarah had won the fire challenge.

She sat out like the entire game. You have to show some kind of brass balls or be content playing for second or third.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

sportsgenius86 posted:

Nat should’ve used the idol on Michelle and gotten Sarah out. That’s where all of this fell apart.

If you’re at that five with a HII you need to be smart enough to realize your only real shot at winning is to sit with Michelle and Ben.
Yes. A premerge player coming back at F6 needs to play the literal perfect game.

Nat played an idol on herself when she received 0 votes
Nat didn’t put herself into fire

Two times she put self-preservation ahead of game when self-preservation was not what she needed to focus on at all, because it’s not enough in her position.

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
It was a tough spot

If Tony lost, he AND Ben would be lobbying the jury for Sarah

pokeyman
Nov 26, 2006

That elephant ate my entire platoon.
"Sat out" by kicking rear end alongside the jury-to-be. I don't think the people who spent 1-30 days on edge will consider edge "sitting out".

Could be wrong though.

SLICK GOKU BABY
Jun 12, 2001

Hey Hey Let's Go! 喧嘩する
大切な物を protect my balls


IcePhoenix posted:

I don't think she necessarily made the wrong move. But the problem is she needs as much resume building as possible in the last three days of the game so missing on that hurts her a lot

I don't think she really does. You can't forget that almost everyone on that jury has lived and survived with Nat for the entire game... also Nat played the fire token part of the game.

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007

Lone Goat posted:

if Tony loses from here I'm never watching this show again lol

Michelle has a legit claim to this game, honestly I think she deserve it more than Tony. It would be surprising if she pulls out the story of a lifetime for tribal here, there is one to be made, but I don't think she will.

Max
Nov 30, 2002

pokeyman posted:

"Sat out" by kicking rear end alongside the jury-to-be. I don't think the people who spent 1-30 days on edge will consider edge "sitting out".

Could be wrong though.

She also got a really astounding number of tokens at the end of the day.

Brock Samson
May 13, 2003

I let you know me, see me. I gave you a rare gift, but you didn't want it.

Yul's so smart :)

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

sportsgenius86 posted:

There are five people left, there’s a final three, two of them you have almost no chance of beating. Why would you keep both of them and guarantee one of the two people you have the least chance of beating remains.

Yea, you risk going home but not taking that risk virtually assures you lose the game.

I just don't agree. I mean, maybe Nat is drawing dead against the jury because they want a "legitimate" winner or something. I don't know. But her sell is that she busted her rear end and then won a couple of challenges and found an idol to get there. Like we're ignoring that she found an idol to save herself at F5. If the jury is dead set against the EoE winner I don't see a couple of flashy moves changing that against Tony.

I mean, who knows? But I feel like people are projecting their own frustrations with EoE on the Jury. And maybe they share them. But we really don't know.

And either way she was never beating Tony unless we're all hugely wrong.

Fast Luck
Feb 2, 1988

STAC Goat posted:

No one thought Sarah was a big winner 3 hours ago.
I mean, this thread all did say she was playing a great game and would be a good winner for the last week.

Khanstant
Apr 5, 2007

STAC Goat posted:

I just don't agree. I mean, maybe Nat is drawing dead against the jury because they want a "legitimate" winner or something. I don't know. But her sell is that she busted her rear end and then won a couple of challenges and found an idol to get there. Like we're ignoring that she found an idol to save herself at F5. If the jury is dead set against the EoE winner I don't see a couple of flashy moves changing that against Tony.

I mean, who knows? But I feel like people are projecting their own frustrations with EoE on the Jury. And maybe they share them. But we really don't know.

She had so many tokens she could've bought an idol to use anyway. Did she find that idol before or after being voted off, i forgot

The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Michelle getting ignored doesn't bode well

The REAL Goobusters
Apr 25, 2008
Don't do this jeremy!!!

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Fast Luck posted:

I mean, this thread all did say she was playing a great game and would be a good winner for the last week.

I think we were saying she hadn't done anything wrong but not that she was in a position to win. She did a good job working the jury tonight and finally made a move separate from Tony. So I think that changed the math a bit, especially in the hypothetical where she knocked out Tony.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Khanstant posted:

She had so many tokens she could've bought an idol to use anyway. Did she find that idol before or after being voted off, i forgot

She bought the idol she used at F6. She found the one she played at F5.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

STAC Goat posted:

I just don't agree. I mean, maybe Nat is drawing dead against the jury because they want a "legitimate" winner or something. I don't know. But her sell is that she busted her rear end and then won a couple of challenges and found an idol to get there. Like we're ignoring that she found an idol to save herself at F5. If the jury is dead set against the EoE winner I don't see a couple of flashy moves changing that against Tony.

I mean, who knows? But I feel like people are projecting their own frustrations with EoE on the Jury. And maybe they share them. But we really don't know.

And either way she was never beating Tony unless we're all hugely wrong.

EOE isn’t easy by any means. And she absolutely earned those fire tokens. But it’s also a totally different game than being vulnerable to go home every 3 days and constantly having to battle and strategize and I think it’s naive to expect that everyone else wouldn’t see the same thing.

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The Bloop
Jul 5, 2004

by Fluffdaddy
Rob's smile

He's been a death mask since the returnee challenge


Tony impressed a LOT of the jury

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