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tractor fanatic posted:This whole thing has accelerated the decline of American hegemony by like a decade, so I'd say it's looking pretty good for them It's really remarkable how the people who are most likely to say things like "decline of American hegemony" are also the least likely to even know what that is or why it's there
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May 14, 2020 00:09
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They're the same people who'll sneer at 'China's going to have an economic downturn any day now' while screaming 'Capitalism is one shaky step away from collapsing into my glorious utopian anarchist/communist/fascist/libertarian paradise scenario!'.
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May 14, 2020 00:20
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It's amazing that as we dive into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression while the president talks about drinking bleach and confiscates ppe from the states, you can't imagine the end or decline of American preeminence. We've enjoying being the largest economy in the world for over a century, and that's coming to an end. Worst than the sheer incompetence of our response to this thing is the fact that at least 40% of the country still supports this administration. Our message to the world is that we will periodically elect complete psychos, and literally nothing will stop that pattern.
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May 14, 2020 00:27
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The world needs to work together to dramatically reduce china's GDP year after year until they reform. No trade without reform.
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May 14, 2020 00:30
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tractor fanatic posted:It's amazing that as we dive into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression while the president talks about drinking bleach and confiscates ppe from the states, you can't imagine the end or decline of American preeminence. We've enjoying being the largest economy in the world for over a century, and that's coming to an end. Worst than the sheer incompetence of our response to this thing is the fact that at least 40% of the country still supports this administration. Our message to the world is that we will periodically elect complete psychos, and literally nothing will stop that pattern. The reason countries align with the US is not because they think that the President is always a brain genius or that the American health care system is good. You are drastically conflating American domestic policy and American foreign policy. Protip: nobody outside the US really gives a poo poo about the former when the chips are down, and the primary purpose of American domestic politics for US allies is usually to jerk ourselves off about how much better governed we think we are than those crazy Yanks This "decline" angle has been being thrown around a whole lot since Trump got elected but it has yet to materialize. In fact no, that's wrong, it's been being thrown around for at least the past three administrations, usually by Americans dissatisfied with their own government and assuming that everyone else in the world must think the same way.
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May 14, 2020 00:36
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Fojar38 posted:The reason countries align with the US is not because they think that the President is always a brain genius or that the American health care system is good. You are drastically conflating American domestic policy and American foreign policy. Protip: nobody outside the US really gives a poo poo about the former when the chips are down, and the primary purpose of American domestic politics for US allies is usually to jerk ourselves off about how much better governed we think we are than those crazy Yanks Countries align with the US in no small part because the US is the wealthiest and most powerful country. Domestic policy matters when it's almost maintaining the ability of the country to function. The president matters when it comes to maintaining friendships across the world. And when the chips are down, and China's market ends up bigger than the US's, who do you think all those multinationals will end up turning to?
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May 14, 2020 00:42
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Countries align with the US because US interests align with their own. This is geopolitics 101. Countries aren't a bunch of dust motes naturally attracted by the gravitational pull of whoever is the "biggest" Furthermore, US material power remains unchanged despite Trump being bad. It's military is still unmatched, it still has the world's largest economy (in fact China has been losing ground in this regard), it's financial power is unrivaled, its scientific and technological output remains central to the world. Trump being a giant embarassing dipshit hasn't changed any of this, and the pandemic hasn't either because to be blunt, the cold calculus of material power doesn't take into account human suffering. An argument can be made that American soft power has taken a hit (although the relative importance of soft power is still hotly debated among political scientists) but that assumes that the sole measure of soft power is "do people like the head of state" when in practice, whoever is in charge is almost entirely irrelevant in the case of American soft power. And even if soft power has taken a hit, it's not even close to the loving shotgun blast that Chinese soft power has taken right in the face. Basically, if you are going to make such a bold declaration of US material decline, you need to back it up with more than Trump being terrible and the economy doing badly when the economy is shut down. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 00:57 on May 14, 2020 |
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May 14, 2020 00:55
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The USA is absolutely materially declining, it would be an insane degree of willful ignorance to suggest otherwise, and I suggest Zeihans new work Disunited Nations for a look at the whys of that and the potential chaos which is going to fill that power vacuum as the USA retreats from global dominance. China is hosed in that new paradigm, obvs. They rely too much on imports to feed and power the country, are surrounded by nations which hate them passionately, and have zero naval capability to defend their supply lines.
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May 14, 2020 01:21
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You're misinterpreting Zeihan's work. He suggests that America is growing disinterested in global affairs and is entering an isolationist phase (for a multitude of reasons both political and material, fundamentally driven by the Americans determining that they don't really need the rest of the world that badly.) This isn't a reduction of American material power, it's a reduction of American will to use it. One of the hallmarks of his work however, is that regardless of how interested the USA is in the outside world, its geographic position necessitates the use of its power to protect its own interests, namely control of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which he argues is a core US interest on account of North America being fundamentally a giant island. In fact, one of Zeihan's core arguments across all his writing is that American material power is guaranteed by geography alone, and it is a pretty convincing one. Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 01:29 on May 14, 2020 |
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May 14, 2020 01:25
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tractor fanatic posted:Countries align with the US in no small part because the US is the wealthiest and most powerful country. Domestic policy matters when it's almost maintaining the ability of the country to function. The president matters when it comes to maintaining friendships across the world. And when the chips are down, and China's market ends up bigger than the US's, who do you think all those multinationals will end up turning to? You think this is going to help china's economy get bigger than the US economy?
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May 14, 2020 01:31
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Fojar38 posted:You're misinterpreting Zeihan's work. He suggests that America is growing disinterested in global affairs and is entering an isolationist phase (for a multitude of reasons both political and material, fundamentally driven by the Americans determining that they don't really need the rest of the world that badly.) This isn't a reduction of American material power, it's a reduction of American will to use it. That all makes sense actually... "Defending the homeland" literally means controlling the oceans.
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May 14, 2020 01:31
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hakimashou posted:You think this is going to help china's economy get bigger than the US economy? To be fair they can apparently report whatever numbers they want and everyone will write it down
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May 14, 2020 01:32
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It's sort of funny how easily you could just swap country names and read a normal tankie discussion for an entire page. Edit: I mean, "I'm defending the huge powerful country with dubious ethics and many detractors whose reputation has recently taken massive poo poo and people are saying will collapse any day now!" "No, *I'm* defending the... wait." Atopian fucked around with this message at 01:38 on May 14, 2020 |
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May 14, 2020 01:35
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Rime posted:The USA is absolutely materially declining, it would be an insane degree of willful ignorance to suggest otherwise, and I suggest Zeihans new work Disunited Nations for a look at the whys of that and the potential chaos which is going to fill that power vacuum as the USA retreats from global dominance. With the way their gift to the world is going, they're going to be surrounded by a planet that hates them before too long.
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May 14, 2020 01:37
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hakimashou posted:With the way their gift to the world is going, they're going to be surrounded by a planet that hates them before too long. china 2019: our main export is everything china 2021: our main export is kan re nao videos
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May 14, 2020 01:41
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Atopian posted:Edit: Is it really "defending" the US to point out material reality? America invaded two countries (one of which most of its allies condemned the invasion of), stuck around for decades after spending insane amounts of blood and treasure for nothing, and its material power actually increased over the course of doing so. Declinists in tyool 2020 need to clearly state why they think that the country whose material power was unphased by two massively unpopular intercontinental forever-wars will suddenly be brought low by a relatively minor pandemic (that is loving the entire world, not just the USA) and the guy from the Burger King commercials telling people to drink bleach edit: Also, a good chunk of the foreverwars took place during a decade-long economic crisis Fojar38 fucked around with this message at 01:50 on May 14, 2020 |
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May 14, 2020 01:45
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Winnie the Pooh was in Burger King ads?
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May 14, 2020 01:47
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Trump was in a Pizza Hut ad, it that's what he's referring to.
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May 14, 2020 01:50
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Blistex posted:Trump was in a Pizza Hut ad, it that's what he's referring to. I just checked the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library and Archives website and it says that it was, in fact, a McDonalds commercial
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May 14, 2020 01:55
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Fojar38 posted:Is it really "defending" the US to point out material reality? America invaded two countries (one of which most of its allies condemned the invasion of), stuck around for decades after spending insane amounts of blood and treasure for nothing, and its material power actually increased over the course of doing so. It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another thing coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here.
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May 14, 2020 01:57
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Oh okay carry on. I was like WHAT
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May 14, 2020 01:58
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tractor fanatic posted:It's amazing that as we dive into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression while the president talks about drinking bleach and confiscates ppe from the states, you can't imagine the end or decline of American preeminence. We've enjoying being the largest economy in the world for over a century, and that's coming to an end. Worst than the sheer incompetence of our response to this thing is the fact that at least 40% of the country still supports this administration. Our message to the world is that we will periodically elect complete psychos, and literally nothing will stop that pattern. Replace a few events and details in your post and it would apply to any point in the last 100 years. This prediction has been made for decades if not centuries.
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May 14, 2020 02:00
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screamin and creamin posted:It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another thing coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here. “Tow the line” is becoming increasingly popular and I hate it.
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May 14, 2020 02:01
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screamin and creamin posted:It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another thing coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here. You are correct. Between this and the Burger King blunder I wouldn't blame you all for putting me on ignore right here and now
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May 14, 2020 02:04
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Ugly In The Morning posted:“Tow the line” is becoming increasingly popular and I hate it. Paying attention to language use is one of my tenants.
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May 14, 2020 02:05
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Fojar38 posted:I just checked the Donald J. Trump Presidential Library and Archives website and it says that it was, in fact, a McDonalds commercial He's done a few. https://youtu.be/QVmAcULPMu4
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May 14, 2020 02:08
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Fojar38 posted:You are correct. Nah, you're posts peak my interest.
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May 14, 2020 02:10
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Ugly In The Morning posted:“Tow the line” is becoming increasingly popular and I hate it. It's the majority now as far as I can tell. Also the illiterates writing 100$ are winning. %50 is gaining but still a minority. And I'm seeing more people put spaces before , and after , their punctuation. Native English speakers, not Chinese.
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May 14, 2020 02:11
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Blistex posted:He's done a few.  God, why did he ever think that haircut looked good?
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May 14, 2020 02:11
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Atopian posted:Paying attention to language use is one of my tenants. Yup, one of my firmest principals, too.
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May 14, 2020 02:16
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screamin and creamin posted:It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another thing coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here. mods this post is causing me pain.
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May 14, 2020 03:38
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A beautiful world with beautiful places to visit
Barudak fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Jun 28, 2021 |
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May 14, 2020 03:45
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Grand Fromage posted:I like space exploration and China becoming a player in it is good, more rockets is better. I just also like being realistic. The Chinese program makes a lot of huge promises, gets a lot of press, and produces very little. It's also difficult to follow since they're so secretive about everything. I also wish they would stop dropping toxic, exploding rocket stages on people. I remember a big kerfuffle a while back about the space walk footage that was either real or faked. And the consensus was that it definitely looked real, but everything about it leaned toward suspicious. No word on a definitive proof or refutation that I can recall. tractor fanatic posted:It's amazing that as we dive into the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression while the president talks about drinking bleach and confiscates ppe from the states, you can't imagine the end or decline of American preeminence. We've enjoying being the largest economy in the world for over a century, and that's coming to an end. Worst than the sheer incompetence of our response to this thing is the fact that at least 40% of the country still supports this administration. Our message to the world is that we will periodically elect complete psychos, and literally nothing will stop that pattern. I think you're vastly underestimating the plutocracy that the U.S. has been supporting for a while now. There's as many ways to legally bribe government officials in the U.S. as there are dollars flowing into said bribed officials' pockets, and as long as you can grease the wheels in the dark and let public officials emerge from the bullshit like a turd-encrusted diamond, they're fine with it. Also there's too many poor people everywhere to properly leave the U.S. plutocracy to collapse under its own weight; they all end up in the illegal payouts parts of the U.S. and the wealthy just keep skimming off the top, even when the top is actually the backs of the poor. CMYK BLYAT! posted:mods this post is causing me pain. I am not a doctor so I cannot comment
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May 14, 2020 04:17
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Fojar38 posted:Countries align with the US because US interests align with their own. This is geopolitics 101. Countries aren't a bunch of dust motes naturally attracted by the gravitational pull of whoever is the "biggest" Um, while I'm far from a prophet of American decline, I think you might be taking this argument too far. American military and economic power might still be unmatched, but is it really losing ground? All the trends I'm aware of show the US representing a decreasing share of economic activity.  As share of world GDP shifts to Asia, there's no way it won't become relatively more difficult for the USA to project power.
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May 14, 2020 04:17
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I don't think anyone's disputing that the post Cold War situation of the US being the only relevant power in the world is ending, but the US isn't going anywhere. There will be more players and the US will remain a major one for the foreseeable future. Unless it just suddenly collapses, which does happen to great powers from time to time.
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May 14, 2020 04:20
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Squalid posted:As share of world GDP shifts to Asia, there's no way it won't become relatively more difficult for the USA to project power. Even ignoring China's really obviously faked growth figures, your charts show GDP measured in PPP, which is heavily distorted and generally not used to compare different national economies. The standard for international comparison is nominal GDP, and relative to the US the Chinese economy has been either holding steady or losing ground even if you believe Chinese statistics.
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May 14, 2020 04:22
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screamin and creamin posted:It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another thing coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here. It's a moot point? Ahh my sarcasm detector failed, i blame the intent porpoises.
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May 14, 2020 04:26
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screamin and creamin posted:It's "unfazed". For all intensive purposes, Its a mute point, needles to say, but I wanted to eek this out so you have another think coming. Because I see "eek out" and "unphased" all the time here. Fixed it for ya
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May 14, 2020 04:31
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Grand Fromage posted:I don't think anyone's disputing that the post Cold War situation of the US being the only relevant power in the world is ending This situation never existed.
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May 14, 2020 04:34
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Wait so which country is number one
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May 14, 2020 04:43
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