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it was always obviously going to be impossible to really wall off the elderly with an incubation time of over a week and the relatively long life of the virus on surfaces - that's pretty much self-evident. remember, the state of elder care is what it is, not what you might want it to be. a strategy that doesn't accept reality is not a good strategy still we'll see later when we have better counts of excess deaths etc just what worked and what didn't. official accounting here sucks poo poo
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May 25, 2020 15:57
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lilljonas posted:Living in Malmö, I'm also seeing TONS of Danes everywhere, mingling about celebrating the end of the quarantine. Filling restaurants, milling around in shopping malls etc. While Swedes have had a rather constant level of treating the virus with a bit too little respect. I do think there is a danger of going all in on quarantine, and then switching it right off because "you won the fight". Again, it's too early to tell. In the long run we might have more similar numbers than right now. There is that aspect. But honestly that draws even more attention to the fact that this loving thing can't be left up to people's good judgement, it needs to be enforced. Crises like pandemic require clear and serious measures, not wishful thinking, and I think the way society has been reopened is filling a bunch of people in Denmark and Norway with a false sense of security that all is over because in terms of limiting the loss of life and the spread of infection their strategies seem to have worked for the moment. But if we were to get an outbreak again as it is now we might just have to go back to closure. Clearer measures that still allows for some sectors of society and the ecnomy to function were responsible are necessary, not just giving people advice and hopng for the best.
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May 25, 2020 16:06
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Katt posted:I thought Rust already knew English. Selvfølgelig
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May 25, 2020 16:28
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Randarkman posted:There is that aspect. But honestly that draws even more attention to the fact that this loving thing can't be left up to people's good judgement, it needs to be enforced. Crises like pandemic require clear and serious measures, not wishful thinking, and I think the way society has been reopened is filling a bunch of people in Denmark and Norway with a false sense of security that all is over because in terms of limiting the loss of life and the spread of infection their strategies seem to have worked for the moment. But if we were to get an outbreak again as it is now we might just have to go back to closure. Randarkman posted:Clearer measures that still allows for some sectors of society and the ecnomy to function were responsible are necessary, not just giving people advice and hopng for the best. *do not go sing in a choir during this pandemic.
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May 25, 2020 16:33
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Pandemic is SO EASY, I always win. Give it a year or two at least. Then we'll know if our response was in fact pants on head.
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May 25, 2020 16:37
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The issue with "Danish used to be easier to understand" has been explained to me as class-related. Danish is taught as "Copenhagenish", as opposed to other dialects. Formerly there was "proper Danish", meaning the way the upper classes spoke it, where you went to the right schools, etc., and sort of working-class Danish. My GF said "oh they USED to teach you to talk like that..." In the 1970s, with foreign workers, the Danish government had to teach a LOT of people how to speak Danish. A decision was apparently made to make working-class speech the standard. So you have a half-century of teaching people to basically talk mumbled, poorly enunciated, incomprehensible Danish, while the elderly still enunciate and bemoan the destruction of the language. Source: my Danish teachers, who admit there wasn't much of an alternative and it also helped smash classist attitudes.
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May 25, 2020 16:41
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One amusing example is announcements on the Metro that the train terminates in "Vest Ahhmaaaeeer" which is the correct pronunciation of Amager except nobody says it like that any more. It's "Am'arr".
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May 25, 2020 16:44
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Rust Martialis posted:The issue with "Danish used to be easier to understand" has been explained to me as class-related.
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May 25, 2020 17:06
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Rust Martialis posted:It's "Am'arr". Excuse me, it's Lorteøen.
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May 25, 2020 17:50
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Randarkman posted:If so I think it's alright to make that mistake as part of an attempt to avoid literally thousands of deaths. Sweden's strategy has been a cock-up, their deaths per capita are now among the highest in the world, it is not indicative of having chosen a good strategy for dealing with the outbreak. Sweden's neighbors are now beginning to reopoen their societies and make decisions regarding what measures need to still be enforced and where, while Sweden is still seeing at least 20 deaths per day. Do we really need to re-litigate this again? There's very significant and consistent under-reporting of deaths in many other countries to a far larger degree than in Sweden. And even then, it's clear that the transmission of the disease is still poorly understood and many places that seem like they should be having massive issues simply do not (see e.g. Japan). Lockdown works far better in some places than in others, for no apparent reason. Attributing spread (or lack thereof) to a particular strategy seems very premature at this point. Basically we don't know poo poo about what what works and what doesn't and the data is highly questionable and hard to compare apples to apples. It's a meaningless discussion. e: the theory about "superspreaders" (a small fraction of infected people are responsible for the vast majority of new infections) seems to be quite plausible btw. see f.ex. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all and https://covid.idmod.org/data/Stochasticity_heterogeneity_transmission_dynamics_SARS-CoV-2.pdf. in small countries like Sweden the number of deaths per capita could be highly influenced by random chance if this is indeed the case. TheFluff fucked around with this message at 18:24 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 18:04
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Nah, Sweden hosed up,.
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May 25, 2020 18:36
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Oh ok, cool then.
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May 25, 2020 18:44
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SplitSoul posted:Excuse me, it's Lorteøen. Det er skide... godt. (Egon)
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May 25, 2020 18:45
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Randarkman posted:Nah, Sweden hosed up,. Yeah, waging war with Russia was not a clever move.
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May 25, 2020 18:53
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MiddleOne posted:Oh ok, cool then. It really isn't and it's completely loving baffling to me that so many Swedes seem so eager to defend their disastrous handling of this crisis (failing to account for the vulnerability of the nursing homes counts btw) and throw up their hands in wonderment when people from other countries are strongly critical of their approach is baffling to me. As is defending Tegnell who seems like a loving ghoul. Better reporting of excess deaths is not going to explain why Sweden has 10x the number of deaths as Norway, and I'm willing to bet that the situation in that regard is pretty similar for both countries. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 19:02 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 18:56
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Randarkman posted:Better reporting of excess deaths is not going to explain why Sweden has 10x the number of deaths as Norway, and I'm willing to bet that the situation in that regard is pretty similar for both countries. Maybe Norway is the outlier? Why is stockholm so much worse hit than the rest of the country? Could be sportlov, could be lovely luck. I think we are looking for some just world reason for why some places are hit worse than others and it could be just chance rather than agency. Just look at that South Korean congregation. My guess is we were too sloppy in the beginning with the infamous sportlov returnees from italy etc. Some proper quarantine and testing those first two weeks could have turned the stockholm situation into something entirely different. If you wonder why we seem so relaxed now... im guessing it mostly feels like things are cooling down though we've had the same light ish measuers in place for months. So no one has the energy to panic about it anymore. Threadkiller Dog fucked around with this message at 19:15 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 19:12
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Threadkiller Dog posted:If you wonder why we seem so relaxed now... im guessing it mostly feels like things are cooling down though we've had the same light ish measuers in place for months. So no one has the energy to panic about it anymore. Even though you are saying that things are cooling down, last night Sweden had about the same number of coronavirus deaths as the number of people in Norway currently hospitalized for it. It's not that you seem relaxed it's that you seem determined to not accept that this has been mishandled and Sweden is doing so much worse than not just Norway, but also Denmark and Finland, pretty much all the countries it makes sense to compare Sweden to. Norway had to deal with those same returning tourists from Italy, Austria and other countries at about the same time and also wasn't doing a bangup job. The situation was very similar and Oslo has been hit much harder than the rest of the country, but still to a much lesser degree than Sweden. And again its not just Norway. It really seems to come down the response and a seeming willingness in Sweden to just let people die to maintain a semblance of normality in what seems to be a fruitless pursuit of herd immunity. I don't understand your reaction to this.
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May 25, 2020 19:21
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Randarkman posted:Even though you are saying that things are cooling down, last night Sweden had about the same number of coronavirus deaths as the number of people in Norway currently hospitalized for it. We had the same relatively lackluster approach in Skåne as in Stockholm and we're less affected than Denmark across the sound which implemented harsher measures. It's not that simple. edit: Also plenty of skiers here, the difference being that people here go skiing in Italy a week earlier* than in Stockholm, which could point towards that timing of measures is more important than the harshness of implementation, to a degree. edit2: A question to the posters from the minor Scandinavian nations. Would it make sense for us in Skåne to put harsher measures equal to those in, say Norway, in place tomorrow, even though the situation is very managable at the moment and has been for weeks? (population 1,4 million, 91 Covid related hospitalizations atm of which 21 are in intensive care, i think around 120 deaths in total) P.S. I am in no way saying that Stockholm hasn't hosed up or doesn't deserve the shade from the thread. Just that adequate measures change according to the situation at hand. * The Week before poo poo hit the fan in Italy, to be precise. Fox Cunning fucked around with this message at 20:01 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 19:24
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Randarkman posted:
Ok some serious answer why I think not more Swedes are livid about the seventh seal breaking up over our pestilence land: 1) There's no clear correlation. This is a big one. Some countries did exactly the same thing and got extremely different results. Some had harsh quarantines and got loving bodied. Some had harsh quarantines and did fine. Some got it early. Some are seeing it slow down, some are on the uptick. Basically, there's no solution that has been 100% effective for everyone who tried it. So it's hard to say that if we did exactly this thing instead, it would have definitely led to a different situation. Even the political enemies of the government don't have a really solid case in what they'd do differently. 2) Serious Science People are divided. Some say it's obvious we were wrong from the start. Some say we might have been right all along. Some say it's way too early and that you can't evaluate a pandemic until it's over and you can start to check data. With no consensus, there's no strong counter to the official agenda. 3) We don't even know that much about the virus. What are the long term effects of people who got infected? Will second waves be a problem? Will it strike countries differently? Swedes are masters of not ropa hej innan du är över bäcken. "Those people in country X might be happy NOW, but just wait until their numbers catch up with them" will be a viable argument in the public debate for years unless there's a foolproof vaccine. 4) We don't know just how bad the economic effects have been or will be. But compared to some countries we haven't seen quite as bad effects as you might think when it comes to unemployment, especially outside the obvious stuff like tourism. People do care a lot about their jobs in comparison to the wellbeing of strangers. Swedish media has also been reporting on the epidemic in a rather cold fashion, i.e. more focus on press conferences and advice from the health agencies rather than human pieces about individual people who have died. Deaths have mostly been numbers, unless it's a celebrity. And with no more major celebrities than.. Adam Alsing? It's sad, but not a constant trauma to follow the news. 5) The deaths are mostly confined to specific groups. Groups that the majority don't belong to. It is probably horrible to say this, but most of the 4000 people who have died have been really old men who also had other health issues. The other big group is immigrants in a few specific suburbs. It has also been mostly confined to the area around Stockholm, which means that there's no national wide feeling of loss. I might be extremely cold here, but these are people that already lived isolated from the average person. So if you ask people to choose between a minium amount of restrictions to their daily lives as well as maybe a smaller risk of losing their jobs, or a lot of restrictions to their daily lives combined with a bigger risk of losing your job but maaaaybe fewer people from groups that you don't really care about that much die... I mean, it's not strange to see why there are no riots in the streets. I might be overly cynical in my assumptions here, but to me it's not so surprising that this isn't as big an issue to the average Swede as you might expect from the outsider perspective. Combine that with a lot of the typical quarantine options being directly discredited by many scientists, it's easy to latch on to that the whole idea of quarantines are bad. When instead the truth might be that selective quarantines at the right conditions is good, but blanket "stop everything in the whole country no matter what for two months and then open everything" might be counterproductive. But again - we don't know yet. Don' t ropa hej until that god drat bäck is crossed and don't sell that skin until the björn is shot. EDIT: also, according to statistics, excess mortality is decreasing right now, especially around Stockholm, so there's a feeling that the worst is over. Needless to say that has an effect on how willing people are to call for harsher measures. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 20:06 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 19:57
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Randarkman posted:It really isn't and it's completely loving baffling to me that so many Swedes seem so eager to defend their disastrous handling of this crisis (failing to account for the vulnerability of the nursing homes counts btw) and throw up their hands in wonderment when people from other countries are strongly critical of their approach is baffling to me. It's really really simple: the way I see it, everything points to strategies/lockdown/masks not really mattering much. Your outrage is based on ascribing the government powers it does not actually have. The key to not really having any meaningful spread like Norway/Finland/Japan/Hong Kong seems to have been to catch those early superspreading individuals, and if you missed that opportunity then welp. That was not so easy to see a few months ago. Like, try to explain this map of distribution of cases in Italy with a model of bad vs good government action, for example: https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1263414096193609728 Distribution in different states and metropolitan areas in the US is also wildly different, even where strategies have been similar. You're assuming causality where there might barely be any at all. Like, "Sweden was hit bad and it did some things different so clearly the different thing was bad", while ignoring other places where no such correlation exists. TheFluff fucked around with this message at 20:20 on May 25, 2020 |
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May 25, 2020 20:15
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TheFluff posted:in small countries like Sweden the number of deaths per capita could be highly influenced by random chance if this is indeed the case.
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May 25, 2020 20:49
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TheFluff posted:It's really really simple: the way I see it, everything points to strategies/lockdown/masks not really mattering much. Your outrage is based on ascribing the government powers it does not actually have. The key to not really having any meaningful spread like Norway/Finland/Japan/Hong Kong seems to have been to catch those early superspreading individuals, and if you missed that opportunity then welp. That was not so easy to see a few months ago. TheFluff posted:Like, try to explain this map of distribution of cases in Italy with a model of bad vs good government action, for example: TheFluff posted:Distribution in different states and metropolitan areas in the US is also wildly different, even where strategies have been similar. You're assuming causality where there might barely be any at all. Like, "Sweden was hit bad and it did some things different so clearly the different thing was bad", while ignoring other places where no such correlation exists. Fox Cunning posted:edit2: A question to the posters from the minor Scandinavian nations. 
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May 25, 2020 20:50
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Just saying that we have the population to spare to be a bit more chillax with the bat virus.
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May 25, 2020 20:53
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SplitSoul posted:Excuse me, it's Lorteøen. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xpt-PgtlMI 
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May 25, 2020 20:58
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Rust Martialis posted:The issue with "Danish used to be easier to understand" has been explained to me as class-related. Case in point: ə - which has recently been making the rounds of the internet. Mind you, I'm one of the few who was taught the Hvetbo variant of Vendelbomål, itself a very little spoken dialect, so I know exactly what it's like to have your dialect die out while you speak it.
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May 25, 2020 23:31
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Fox Cunning posted:We had the same relatively lackluster approach in Skåne as in Stockholm and we're less affected than Denmark across the sound which implemented harsher measures. It's not that simple. I'm no demographicologist, but I suspect there might be some correlation between population density and traffic, both of which are greater in Copenhagen and Stockholm than in Skåne? Fox Cunning posted:edit2: A question to the posters from the minor Scandinavian nations. If you wanna go down that road, the Faroe Islands have managed to eradicate the virus entirely with a final score of 170-something hospitalizations and 0 deaths. So ideally you wanna have a functional testing apparatus that can be retrofitted for the coronovirus, have done said retrofitting before March, and have easily enforced borders to ensure that anyone entering the country stays quarantined for two weeks.
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May 26, 2020 03:24
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Zulily Zoetrope posted:I'm no demographicologist, but I suspect there might be some correlation between population density and traffic, both of which are greater in Copenhagen and Stockholm than in Skåne? Skåne has a higher population density than most of Sweden, just not on the same level as the inner city of Stockholm for obvious reasons. Copenhagen / Skåne constitutes the main population hub in Sweden. I would say that part of the reason is due to Denmark shutting down and thereby limiting both traffic across the bridge and shutting of our main airport in Kastrup. There is also less temporary workers within the elder care system, partly due to more organizational units. We also had our winter vacation in a different week than Stockholm, so we missed that influx of infected people. Although at this point I am fairly sure that my company has had like 75% infected. I would be kinda interested to see death numbers on a municipal level since I guess that would reveal which municipalities have issues in elder care.
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May 26, 2020 05:13
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D. Ebdrup posted:Mind you, I'm one of the few who was taught the Hvetbo variant of Vendelbomål, itself a very little spoken dialect, so I know exactly what it's like to have your dialect die out while you speak it. Wanna share Ib Grønbech collections? 
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May 26, 2020 08:24
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TheFluff posted:It's really really simple: the way I see it, everything points to strategies/lockdown/masks not really mattering much. Your outrage is based on ascribing the government powers it does not actually have. The key to not really having any meaningful spread like Norway/Finland/Japan/Hong Kong seems to have been to catch those early superspreading individuals, and if you missed that opportunity then welp. That was not so easy to see a few months ago. Do you honestly think that there is no correlation between the number of superspreaders and the lockdown strategies implemented? The statement that strategies and lockdowns don't matter is just mindboggling, and requires a pretty selective reading of the data. I will say that timing of lockdowns is very important, but this does not discredit the strategy as a whole.
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May 26, 2020 09:38
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military cervix posted:Do you honestly think that there is no correlation between the number of superspreaders and the lockdown strategies implemented? The statement that strategies and lockdowns don't matter is just mindboggling, and requires a pretty selective reading of the data. I will say that timing of lockdowns is very important, but this does not discredit the strategy as a whole. I think it's rather the latter. For example, the UK has way harsher measures than Sweden, though has seen more deaths. So I'd say that there's a case for how and when measures were implemented being more important than than what they actually were.
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May 26, 2020 10:06
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lilljonas posted:I think it's rather the latter. For example, the UK has way harsher measures than Sweden, though has seen more deaths. So I'd say that there's a case for how and when measures were implemented being more important than than what they actually were. Britain was pretty late in doing anything wortwhile and they're reaping that. Do you honestly think they would be none the worse for wear if they just did continued doing nothing? Because I don't think you believe that. Sweden's half-hearted measures were implemented at about the same time as the ones in Norway and Denmark, when the situation was similar in all three countries. Both are likely important. You have to implement measures that control spread and they have to be sufficient, if they are implemented too late then you are in for a tough time, and if you implement weak ones then you are in for a tough time.
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May 26, 2020 10:13
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Randarkman posted:Britain was pretty late in doing anything wortwhile and they're reaping that. Do you honestly think they would be none the worse for wear if they just did continued doing nothing? Because I don't think you believe that. ...and we don't know if the cases will just start ticking back up once quarantine is over. Which is, indeed, what the WHO is saying is a likely scenario right now. Welp. https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-05-25-20-intl/h_f260b669316ece8af17b56e6dc0ab64b I guess what I'm saying is that I think more countries should have and should still focus on solutions that work on long term rather than short term solutions like total quarantines, because countries can't survive that. So in an ideal world I wish Sweden had been a) better prepared in stocking PPE etc., and b) been better at testing and clamping down on people travelling from hotspots in february. But I don't think closing down the entire country would have made much difference, especially since the hotspots have been contained to specific areas. Just keeping people from travelling inbetween cities unless necessary seems to have worked pretty decently, as few areas have seen the development that happened in Stockholm. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:35 on May 26, 2020 |
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May 26, 2020 10:31
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lilljonas posted:...and we don't know if the cases will just start ticking back up once quarantine is over. Which is, indeed, what the WHO is saying is a likely scenario right now. Welp. Doesn't this mean that quarantine worked though?
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May 26, 2020 10:34
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Randarkman posted:Doesn't this mean that quarantine worked though? Worked for a limited time or worked for keeping the effects of corona down over long term? Those are two very different things. A quarantine doesn't "work" if it just delay the damage. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:40 on May 26, 2020 |
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May 26, 2020 10:36
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THE BAR posted:Wanna share Ib Grønbech collections?
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May 26, 2020 10:37
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lilljonas posted:Worked for a limited time or worked for keeping the effects of corona down over long term? Those are two very different things. You keep them down by limiting initial spread then you do more limited measures after that. That's what's being done in theory in Norway and Denmark but in practice we're more going towards the wishy-washy recommendations approach of Sweden and that has not worked well for your country in any way. Sweden has been hit harder and longer, many more people are being hospitalized and dying in Sweden than in Norway still, and the population does not seem to have built up notable immunity.
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May 26, 2020 10:41
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Randarkman posted:You keep them down by limiting initial spread then you do more limited measures after that. That's what's being done in theory in Norway and Denmark but in practice we're more going towards the wishy-washy recommendations approach of Sweden and that has not worked well for your country in any way. We'll see. I'm just very careful to say anything about what's right or wrong regarding corona policies, since things are still developing. I mean, just weeks ago I kept seeing articles about how amazingly low the number of cases were in India, and scientists speculating about some inherent immunity and stuff. Oooops, now Indian cases are shooting up very rapidly, two months after the same happened in much of Europe. So I think it's a bit optimistic to say that we know today how this all will play out over say, two years, when there are still so many unknown factors. Let's say that cases starts increasing in July. Will Norway and Denmark just go "ok guys suit up, we'll go back into quarantine for the rest of the year"? But again, your question was not if Sweden did the perfect strategy with the perfect execution. I doubt many Swedes think that. Your question was why Swedes are not outraged about the current situation. And I think this general scepticism and uncertainty about well, anything plays a big role. Sure, every sane person is on the same page that doing NOTHING and holding hug rallies a.k.a USA is dumb, but once you start looking at more reasonable strategies it's a lot mor muddled regarding which ones are actually universally effective and realistical over time. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 10:57 on May 26, 2020 |
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May 26, 2020 10:50
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Here's a good summary of what we know works: https://twitter.com/meganranney/status/1264589288659922945 If extended lockdown is too expensive, then tax the gently caress out of rich people. As it is, though, our politicians can't even figure out how to prevent salary reimbursement from ending up in tax shelters (i.e., literally none of the companies using tax shelters were affected by the new legislation to prevent it).
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May 26, 2020 10:55
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SplitSoul posted:Here's a good summary of what we know works: This I agree with. Also, far too much of economical support is geared towards those who already have the best situation. For example propping up companies with full time employed office workers, who to a large degree can just safely work from home without problems, compared to safekeeping temp workers and those employed in the service industry (which, to a large degree, are the same thing). EDIT: Because I'm apparently the ranting guy now. But here's an example of excess morbidity in my region, a comparison between the last five years and this year:  The lighter blue is the last five years, the darker blue this year. Notice how they are, well, quite similar? Despite a pandemic? You could just as well say, based on these stats, that the Swedish strategy is working almost perfectly. Now I'm not saying it is. But I'm saying you can use statistics to support many different narratives, and you need to be careful to make hasty conclusions because of that. lilljonas fucked around with this message at 11:13 on May 26, 2020 |
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May 26, 2020 11:03
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May 26, 2020 11:27
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