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Who will you vote for in 2020? This poll is closed. |
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| Biden |
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425 | 18.06% |
| Trump |
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105 | 4.46% |
| whoever the Green Party runs |
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307 | 13.05% |
| GOOGLE RON PAUL |
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151 | 6.42% |
| Bernie Sanders |
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346 | 14.70% |
| Stalin |
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246 | 10.45% |
| Satan |
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300 | 12.75% |
| Nobody |
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202 | 8.58% |
| Jess Scarane |
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110 | 4.67% |
| mystery man Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party |
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61 | 2.59% |
| Dick Nixon |
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100 | 4.25% |
| Total: | 2089 votes | ||
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punishedkissinger posted:Republicans will shoot you in the chest, that is unacceptable. As Democrats we promise we will only shoot your extremities. Police: *wrongfully shoot a black man, crippling him and leaving him unable to support his family* Democrats: Ah well, nevertheless. I'm sure he has a GoFundMe someone can donate to.
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Jun 4, 2020 00:24
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| # ? Jun 10, 2024 19:33 |
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Posted in USPOL, but technically more relevant here: https://mobile.twitter.com/daveweig...agenumber%3D932 While I’m sure Weigel’s stats are accurate as a “picture in time”, that had to have been near a low point in polling for Clinton (hell, she won the popular vote by more than that). Still, contrast with the 2016 election has been on the rise.
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Jun 4, 2020 00:49
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Mellow Seas posted:Posted in USPOL, but technically more relevant here: was there email stuff or deplorables comments happening around that time?
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Jun 4, 2020 00:57
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I think that, for a variety of reasons, comparisons of this 2020 election to the 2016 election are becoming less and less useful.
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Jun 4, 2020 00:59
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goethe.cx posted:was there email stuff or deplorables comments happening around that time? it was right around when trump consolidated all republican support because everyone else dropped out
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Jun 4, 2020 01:22
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The polls weren't as favorable to Clinton as people remember, I feel like time has distorted people's memory of just how much Trump outperformed the polls (it's wasn't that much). There was only a limited window when Clinton had won and the gop primary was still going nasty as gently caress that she had a big lead. They alternated leading multiple times throughout the election. Jarmak fucked around with this message at 02:42 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 02:12
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Jarmak posted:The polls weren't as favorable to Clinton as people remember, I feel like time has distorted just people's memory of how much Trump outperformed the polls (it's wasn't that much). Is there even an actual possibility of Biden winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote? I feel like's he's too likely to run up the numbers in some red states like Georgia or Texas for that to be possible.
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Jun 4, 2020 02:28
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Timeless Appeal posted:Is there even an actual possibility of Biden winning the electoral college and losing the popular vote? I feel like's he's too likely to run up the numbers in some red states like Georgia or Texas for that to be possible. vanishingly unlikely. you would need a genuinely bizarre confluence of events
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Jun 4, 2020 02:36
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BTW, new Lincoln Project ad out. https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1268303956117241856
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Jun 4, 2020 02:41
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https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1268369540888629249
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Jun 4, 2020 03:52
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Iowa and Ohio are lost causes imho, but I think Az is doable.
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Jun 4, 2020 04:31
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Pick posted:Iowa and Ohio are lost causes imho, but I think Az is doable. Ohio is a maybe.
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Jun 4, 2020 04:40
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Timeless Appeal posted:I think there was an incorrect assumption that Trump's road to electoral victory was narrow which obviously wasn't the case. I think that gets conflated with the polls themselves.
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Jun 4, 2020 06:03
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g0del posted:It was this, and why "post your map" was such a common retort to worried people. He basically needed to win most/all of the swing states, and everyone assumed that surely Clinton would be able to win at least a few of them. And nobody was predicting that he'd win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, three states that had gone dem for decades. Didn't help that their state polling wasn't great and showed Clinton ahead consistently
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Jun 4, 2020 06:16
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This seems like a step in the right direction. https://twitter.com/politico/status/1268485303712526336?s=20
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Jun 4, 2020 16:51
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How are u posted:This seems like a step in the right direction. It is, but the point of publicly breaking is to panic the Biden campaign and get them to moderate their already very moderate language towards police, so we'll have to see how the campaign responds. I figure there's two ways they could go: if the protests die down over the weekend I could see the Biden campaign deciding it's safe to pull a 180 and get to licking boot, and pull a "lol jk" on the reform pitches. Alternatively, they could recognize that police, writ-large, are full-on Trumpist at this point, and push a bit further left on reform in the hopes of enticing fence-sitters who are currently considering going third-party or not voting. Guess we'll see which Biden we get. The article notes that Joe has always valued his relationship to police and law and order types pretty highly so there might be personal incentive for him to try and appease the police orgs.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:04
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biden is hoping like hell that these protests are dying down because they represent a massive potential fissure in his coalition if they keep going, where basically all liberals and black people will be pro-protesters and the centrists and business types will be increasingly in favour of cracking down if biden cannot win the educated suburban white women he's hosed i don't care what polls you've got
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Jun 4, 2020 17:10
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this is such a dilemma for Biden since his entire strength as advertised is his ability to lock down racist moderates
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Jun 4, 2020 17:15
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I feel like there is an argument to be made that for folks that don't go for ACAB and believe that there is a significant margin of good cops, the continued murders committed by the white supremacist, nazi, and just fascist cops endangers the good cops. So the union is failing to do their job by implicitly stopping measures to get these assholes out of there. I want really extreme measures, but from NYPD people I know, there are cops who identify the lunatics in their department. That doesn't make them even good or not racist, but our family had some cop family friends help out when a black family friend was being arrested and were open in their feelings that the arresting officer was a racist and only made the arrest because he sucks. This is all to say, I feel like there is a way to thread this needle of not backing down from reform/presenting as pro labor/and appealing to the Liberal not-all-cops crowd.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:17
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Wicked Them Beats posted:It is, but the point of publicly breaking is to panic the Biden campaign and get them to moderate their already very moderate language towards police, so we'll have to see how the campaign responds. biden is currently up by 8-10 points. whatever his campaign's reaction is going to be it is not likely to be panic.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:20
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V. Illych L. posted:biden is hoping like hell that these protests are dying down because they represent a massive potential fissure in his coalition if they keep going, where basically all liberals and black people will be pro-protesters and the centrists and business types will be increasingly in favour of cracking down Trump has pretty much permanently and irrevocably lost the "suburban white women." They are by no means a new solid DNC voting bloc, but 2020 is baked in. There is also no real reason to believe that Biden is hoping the angry national protests (that are now largely aimed at Trump) will die down. As long as they continue, he doesn't have to say much, and Trump's failures continue to be one of the only things on anyone's mind.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:21
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V. Illych L. posted:biden is hoping like hell that these protests are dying down because they represent a massive potential fissure in his coalition if they keep going, where basically all liberals and black people will be pro-protesters and the centrists and business types will be increasingly in favour of cracking down This thing is, though, even the centrists and business types are generally supportive of these protests. There's been a serious shift in public attitudes regarding police abuses - which gives the Biden campaign more room to call for policing reforms, like they're doing here.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:26
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Rigel posted:Trump has pretty much permanently and irrevocably lost the "suburban white women." They are by no means a new solid DNC voting bloc, but 2020 is baked in. the longer the protests go on, the more that group of voters is going to come down on the side of a crackdown, and eventually a crackdown is going to happen. trump will not allow the protests to go on into october. it doesn't matter who the protest is formally aimed at - during the late soviet union, most of the protests were in favour of social democracy of some description, not shock therapy. middle-class suburban whites are consistently skeptical of protests, and biden's bet the house on winning that demographic
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Jun 4, 2020 17:28
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evilweasel posted:biden is currently up by 8-10 points. whatever his campaign's reaction is going to be it is not likely to be panic. Speaking of campaigns and panicking... https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1268580930760912897
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Jun 4, 2020 17:39
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evilweasel posted:biden is currently up by 8-10 points. whatever his campaign's reaction is going to be it is not likely to be panic. Panic might not be the right word but being the face of Law and Order was a big part of Biden's brand for a long time and I don't think he'll feel comfortable surrendering it. But hey, maybe I'm wrong and the Biden campaign will respond in a measured fashion and hone their message to thread whatever needle they're trying to thread here. DaveWoo posted:This thing is, though, even the centrists and business types are generally supportive of these protests. There's been a serious shift in public attitudes regarding police abuses - which gives the Biden campaign more room to call for policing reforms, like they're doing here. There was a poll that said 54% of people thought burning down that police station in Minneapolis was an appropriate response. That sort of result would have been unthinkable even a few years ago so hopefully we're hitting a point where people aren't willing to put up with this anymore. Still need to stand guard against your bog-standard centrist who thinks that electing Biden will mean the problem is solved as of January 21st, 2021, but it's definitely progress.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:42
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How are u posted:This seems like a step in the right direction. The article credits a lot of it to the Obama administration not being pro-police enough, which basically illuminates the problem with Biden's tendency toward triangulation: in between the "pro-civil rights" and "pro-police" ends of the spectrum lies a rather large space where absolutely nothing of value gets accomplished and neither side likes you. From the perspective of actual policy outcomes, that middle ground is a loss for civil rights, because a failure to accomplish anything meaningful means a failure to produce change, and therefore a continuation of the status quo. But from the perspective of political gains, he ends up turning off everyone with a real opinion. Trying to find a balanced middle ground in what's increasingly becoming a war on the streets just gets him attacked by both sides.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:43
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V. Illych L. posted:the longer the protests go on, the more that group of voters is going to come down on the side of a crackdown, and eventually a crackdown is going to happen. trump will not allow the protests to go on into october. I do agree with this. 5 months is a very long time, and there's not a chance Trump holds back that long. Biden is not quietly hoping for an early end to it though, because a long angry national protest only helps him.
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Jun 4, 2020 17:48
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V. Illych L. posted:the longer the protests go on, the more that group of voters is going to come down on the side of a crackdown, and eventually a crackdown is going to happen. trump will not allow the protests to go on into october. I don't think you're wrong that some people won't turn because I'm describing flawed thinking to begin with, but this time does feel different. Timeless Appeal fucked around with this message at 17:57 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 17:55
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Timeless Appeal posted:I feel like I've seen a lot of attempts to separate and delegitimize the violent protest which is loving problematic as hell. But stuff like shots of protestors hugging cops in the Lincoln Project video is very telling of where sentiments are. It's hard to find people trying to legitimize Floyd's murder like with Martin (He was tall! He smoked weed! He, a teenager, was in fact a shithead sometimes!). People are widely against the inciting action, are seeking reconciliation, and I think there is an eagerness to separate the violent aspects of the protests. yeah, the protests are polling shockingly, shockingly well i mean, majorities are approving of burning police stations
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Jun 4, 2020 17:57
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If Biden wins, then one thing we should expect which I haven't seen a lot of speculation about, is that the expectations and the standards to which he will be held are going to be pathetically low. Comparisons to Trump are going to be constantly happening for at least a couple years, and the media is going to marvel at his ability to read a teleprompter, use proper punctuation with lower case letters, and not poo poo himself. If he does poo poo himself, then people will say "well 2 out of 3 is still pretty good". The only question is how long it takes for everyone to pick the presidential bar up off the floor.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:02
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evilweasel posted:yeah, the protests are polling shockingly, shockingly well We had several incidents of racism building up on top of Covid-19 and Trump's impeachment... poo poo was ready to blow. I think there's an argument that while Biden isn't an equivalent to Trump, he's not a very compelling counterpoint to Trump. Bernie, Warren, Castro, Booker, and a lot of 2020 candidates I think would be doing a much more compelling job of giving hope in the way that Obama did during the recession, but they're not there. People feel trapped right now and want a change, and the protesters are the change. .
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Jun 4, 2020 18:06
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Rigel posted:If Biden wins, then one thing we should expect which I haven't seen a lot of speculation about, is that the expectations and the standards to which he will be held are going to be pathetically low. Comparisons to Trump are going to be constantly happening for at least a couple years, and the media is going to marvel at his ability to read a teleprompter, use proper punctuation with lower case letters, and not poo poo himself. If he does poo poo himself, then people will say "well 2 out of 3 is still pretty good". I think the media will hold him to the standard you suggest, but I think that mobilized and activist Democrats will have a much, much higher standard. Our nation is in the midst of multiple, society-shaking crises. We can't afford middling leadership, and I don't think we'll quietly accept it if that's all that's offered.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:10
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https://twitter.com/alexsalvinews/status/1268029252407971840?s=20 The chuds aiming for Cummings seat.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:13
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Timeless Appeal posted:I think you could draw a comparison to Weinstein and #metoo stuff when you had a lot of events that preceded that sort of came together to create an unexpected reaction. Remember when Weinstein thought that he was going to just quietly bounce to be rich while throwing some token money to fight the NRA? biden is ahead by 8-10 points which is a stupefyingly huge margin against a sitting president, it's not about if he's a counterpoint to trump, it's not really about biden at all - though biden being up by 8-10 points is because of the same sort of thing. the issue, i think, is that trump has been systematically stripping away the excuses. republicans spent a lot of time actually convincing themselves they weren't racist. they spent a lot of time coming up with excuses why stuff wasn't racist, that it was just equality of opportunity not equality of outcome, they love the poor and black people it's just they have a different belief on how to advance their interests. trump has been systematically destroying that for his entire term. he is an open, unapologetic racist. to deny it, you have to be a trump die-hard, willing to believe up is down and black is white. there's a lot of those people. but not a majority. so he's basically made it so that either you are with trump, or you're with the protesters. you can only agree with the republican "no racism!" argument if you believe trump, personally, is not racist. he's destroyed the ability for people to quietly exist in a middle ground where they are convinced they're not racists while supporting racist policies. and at the end of the day, one of the things that even most of trump's base agrees with is that "racism is wrong". even trump pretends to believe racism is wrong. but he's stripped away the ability to go "im not racist, but..." you can't really just putter along with the status quo, you are forced to be with trump or with the protesters. and, as we know because biden is ahead by 8-10 points which is a stupefyingly huge margin against a sitting president, not all that many people want to be with trump, especially on this issue
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Jun 4, 2020 18:15
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Rigel posted:If Biden wins, then one thing we should expect which I haven't seen a lot of speculation about, is that the expectations and the standards to which he will be held are going to be pathetically low. Comparisons to Trump are going to be constantly happening for at least a couple years, and the media is going to marvel at his ability to read a teleprompter, use proper punctuation with lower case letters, and not poo poo himself. If he does poo poo himself, then people will say "well 2 out of 3 is still pretty good". Presumably if he shits himself again it will prompt the exact same response as what happened the first time and most people will just collectively agree to pretend that it didn’t happen.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:15
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Nonsense posted:https://twitter.com/alexsalvinews/status/1268029252407971840?s=20 Just looked it up, that district is PVI D+26. She's going to need her opponent to be arrested for a violent felony.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:17
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 Hailing from the great state of Mary Land, she is Anti-Squad and wants term limits (I presume for Congress?). Yeah she's practically guaranteed to lose but I guess congrats on finding a black Republican willing to be a sacrificial lamb. It's smart to run candidates in every district regardless of outcome. Edit - Someone help me parse this from her website quote:Rights of the Unborn Ok nevermind I got through the weird phrasing, she wants to give out birth control to prevent abortions, and she thinks people staying at home are going to be getting pregnant due to lack of things to do which is the "Coro-nial generation." Wicked Them Beats fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 18:23
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it is trivially easy to make a non-violent protest violent unless the protesters are very disciplined, which requires organisation - and these protests aren't very tightly organised. at the moment public sympathy is with the protests, but that can change very quickly indeed. if this goes on for a week or two more and then peters out, it's good for biden. if it doesn't, he's got a real problem on his hands that he's not going to be able to solve easily
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Jun 4, 2020 18:23
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A non-violent protest becomes violent when the police want it to.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:28
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Eminai posted:Presumably if he shits himself again it will prompt the exact same response as what happened the first time and most people will just collectively agree to pretend that it didn’t happen. That was one of many pathetic moments of trying to force a gaffe that didn't even exist, much like the "be Joe Biden" and "we can only re-elect Donald Trump" snippets. A minor crackling sound on an audio line becomes a GIANT RIPPED FART from which NO MAN CAN RECOVER! It makes the opposition look weak and insubstantial, same as the "Donald trump cheats at golf and likes his steaks wrong" approach.
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Jun 4, 2020 18:30
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