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Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus


net work error posted:

TD3 is here
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267549417051000832

It's going to take a few days to figure out where it's going to actually go because it looks like it's just going to hang out where it is for a bit.

Yeah it doesn't have a well defined course yet.

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Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




those are some 2020 rear end lines

Luneshot
Mar 10, 2014

if it weren’t for the impacts on people i would be a huge fan of the one where it literally exactly retraces the way from which it came

net work error
Feb 26, 2011

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267856057872736256
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267875148792598533

SKULL.GIF
Jan 20, 2017


Zil posted:

Yeah it doesn't have a well defined course yet.



so if it manages to escape the yucatan, we have a 40% chance of houston, 40% chance of new orleans, 20% chance of tallahassee

:theroni:

Crowsbeak
Oct 9, 2012

by Azathoth
Lipstick Apathy
So any new reports on that tropical storm in the mid atlantic?

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
It's covered over in the SAL thread.

Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus


Kind of related to weather I guess

https://twitter.com/BreakingNAlerts/status/1268355970377428992

2020, chill the gently caress out.

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Zil posted:

Kind of related to weather I guess

https://twitter.com/BreakingNAlerts/status/1268355970377428992

2020, chill the gently caress out.

Ehh, no one in LA cares about anything under a 6

shame on an IGA
Apr 8, 2005

Lol GFS is so broken the latest run has Cristobal making landfall at 999 mb and continuing to strengthen overland all the way into Hudson Bay

Gareth Gobulcoque
Jan 10, 2008



shame on an IGA posted:

Lol GFS is so broken the latest run has Cristobal making landfall at 999 mb and continuing to strengthen overland all the way into Hudson Bay

lol

Jose
Jul 24, 2007

Adrian Chiles is a broadcaster and writer
https://twitter.com/JanFredrikD/status/1268270255509512193?s=20

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer

SKULL.GIF posted:

so if it manages to escape the yucatan, we have a 40% chance of houston, 40% chance of new orleans, 20% chance of tallahassee

:theroni:

Decent ways south of Houston there. Hitting like Victoria on those tracks.

Xaris
Jul 25, 2006

Lucky there's a family guy
Lucky there's a man who positively can do
All the things that make us
Laugh and cry
yeah norway has big problems wiht quick clay failures

this is a staple of our geotechnical engineering classes. also featuring sexy norwegian drillers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tZV8fNH6k0

redleader
Aug 18, 2005

Engage according to operational parameters

shame on an IGA posted:

Lol GFS is so broken the latest run has Cristobal making landfall at 999 mb and continuing to strengthen overland all the way into Hudson Bay

you laugh, but do account for the "2020 factor", where everything insane is possible - perhaps even likely

Gibbering
May 24, 2014

:catdrugs:
After devastating Canada, Cristobal will delicately navigate the Hudson Strait and then it's straight on to Ireland.

Ramrod Hotshot
May 30, 2003

This guy thinks Cristobal could become a hurricane, also says the season has potential to be "historic"

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1268635115963453440

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


i am furious he didn't zoom back to the white house again

seems...well-built

Luneshot
Mar 10, 2014




Cristobal is pretty lopsided, so places east of the storm are the ones that will get hit more initially; but it looks like it'll drag a lot of moisture inland along the Mississippi Valley.

snoo
Jul 5, 2007




Grand Theft Autobot posted:

Imagine watering your lawn or raking leaves. Who do you think does that poo poo in the forest, bitch?

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

New pic of Cristobal, which stalled 90 miles south of Louisiana



Michigan may get half an inch of rain from Cristobal by the middle of the week :toot:

Zeno-25
Dec 5, 2009

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

redleader posted:

you laugh, but do account for the "2020 factor", where everything insane is possible - perhaps even likely

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brown_ocean_effect

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Michigan may get half an inch of rain from Cristobal by the middle of the week :toot:

austin won't see a drop of rain and shifting winds and pressure have the high for tuesday at 104

Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus


i say swears online posted:

austin won't see a drop of rain and shifting winds and pressure have the high for tuesday at 104

I know it sucks, you would think the tail once it spun around would at least graze us

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006

Zil posted:

I know it sucks, you would think the tail once it spun around would at least graze us

Wouldn’t that require the tail to travel hundreds or thousands of miles in a 180+-degree arc over land before reaching you?

Zil
Jun 4, 2011

Satanically Summoned Citrus


Grundulum posted:

Wouldn’t that require the tail to travel hundreds or thousands of miles in a 180+-degree arc over land before reaching you?

Look I didn't say it had to make sense. I just want rain damnit

Cat Wings
Oct 12, 2012

I'm sorry, but is the graphic showing Cristobal strengthening when it hits the Great Lakes?

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018

Cat Wings posted:

I'm sorry, but is the graphic showing Cristobal strengthening when it hits the Great Lakes?



it’s less severe than a tropical depression, a post tropical cyclone

HugeGrossBurrito
Mar 20, 2018
post tropical means it takes on characteristics of an extra tropical cyclone

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Cat Wings posted:

I'm sorry, but is the graphic showing Cristobal strengthening when it hits the Great Lakes?



Tropical cyclones undergo a process called extratropical transitioning that makes them turn into more standard non-tropical cyclones (think of a nor easter, for example). With the right setup, they can get significantly enhanced during this transition if an existing trough interacts with them the right way.

So it will get stronger, but it won't be a tropical system at this time. i.e. the strongest winds won't be near the center nor will there be a warm-core eye feature.

PostNouveau
Sep 3, 2011

VY till I die
Grimey Drawer
Seems like Cristobal fell apart. Still managed to flood the gently caress out of Grand Isle, but what doesn't these days?

IKillForPie
Jan 13, 2006

Is that a pie in your pocket?
Just thought I'd give this thread a little bump from the activities in the Alberta prairies this weekend. On Saturday evening (June 13th), NE Calgary got pummeled with golf ball sized hail causing upwards of $1BIL+ dollars of projected damage. The hail was able to destroy windshields, windows, house siding and caused severe flooding to several areas of the city over the course of the hour it took to move it's way across town.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4mhED2eJoA





Fun times. There's a poo poo load of videos and clips online that show the extent of the size and speed of destruction the hail caused. I won't post them all, but was looking for this thread to see if anyone had posted an update and thought I'd just share in something that happened very recently which I think is again on the extreme end of the weather spectrum.

Zarin
Nov 11, 2008

I SEE YOU
Is that just wind damage to the siding, or did the hail punch holes through it sideways :stonk:

Real hurthling!
Sep 11, 2001




thats like a billion line drive balls hitting your house/car

Rev. Bleech_
Oct 19, 2004

~OKAY, WE'LL DRINK TO OUR LEGS!~

Did nobody ever tell those beaver-punchers that driving through floodwaters is a terrible idea?

Fuck You And Diebold
Sep 15, 2004

by Athanatos
this storm is over me now, I dont have a good view to the west though so its cool to see it clear like this
https://twitter.com/mark_tarello/status/1273758292645425153

Grundulum
Feb 28, 2006
After a rollicking start to the hurricane season, things appear to have calmed down (thankfully—I have no idea how a nation that can’t comprehend the idea of germs would handle a hurricane on top of a pandemic). Is it possible that the fast start was due to substantially above-average temperatures over the winter, making the surface of the sea warmer than usual for this time of year? And once the tropical systems passed over and churned up the top 50 meters of ocean the temps dropped below cyclone-sustaining levels?

Or is this just small-number noise, and I am seeing a pattern in randomness? (As an additional question, how is vertical heat transfer in oceans modeled? What is the time scale for surface heat to travel down to the 50-ish meters tropical cyclones supposedly mix?)

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

waters were warm but not incredibly so iirc. weather channel says right now that saharan dust is preventing what would be a couple strong storms from forming in the east atlantic

Iron Crowned
May 6, 2003

by Hand Knit

i say swears online posted:

waters were warm but not incredibly so iirc. weather channel says right now that saharan dust is preventing what would be a couple strong storms from forming in the east atlantic

All it's going to do is delay the inevitable, because it will come back, and Florida will gnash it's teeth and rip at it's clothing wailing to open er up again!

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

THE DUST IS HERE

THE DUST IS HERE

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