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Sassafras posted:So I'm not sure whether they count for May stats or June (I think the latter), but boy - 11 SFHs reported sold in Vancouver just June 1st & 2nd. Five of those were no subjects (another six 'no subject' SFH sales reported the last couple days of May). 8 SFHs sold in North Van June 1st/2nd (2 'no subjects'), 1 in New West, 2 in Burnaby (Burnaby SFHs are pretty dead lately, most are asking for just a bit too close to 2016 peak IMO - the well-priced ones sell instantly, usually in bidding wars over list), 7 in Coquitlam, 1 in PoCo, 5 in Port Moody, 10 in Maple Ridge, 7 in Richmond (1 no subj), 21 in Surrey (1 no subjects, but it was a lowball on a very stale listing). Edit: 11 in Langley, too ... I don't really watch that far out. What is the compelling argument for governments to stop printing money before the economy recovers, again? Try to wean things back a bit, maybe, but you're currently seeing central bankers and policy-makers saying they'd much rather err on the side of creating inflation than see deflation. Evan Siddall talking his book as he tries to influence buyers to be more cautious and policy-makers to restrict lending aside.
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Jun 3, 2020 10:19
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Sassafras posted:What is the compelling argument for governments to stop printing money before the economy recovers, again? Try to wean things back a bit, maybe, but you're currently seeing central bankers and policy-makers saying they'd much rather err on the side of creating inflation than see deflation. The time for policy makers to act was 4 years ago when real estate was going hyperbolic, not in 2020 when half of Canadians are now so leveraged that they are $200 a month away from insolvency. Printing money temporarily is obviously good to keep markets liquid, but it won't solve the debt crisis. The chickens will eventually come home to roost and no amount of money printing is going to be able to stave off deflation if households go into default en-masse.
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Jun 4, 2020 00:05
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qhat posted:The time for policy makers to act was 4 years ago when real estate was going hyperbolic, not in 2020 when half of Canadians are now so leveraged that they are $200 a month away from insolvency. Printing money temporarily is obviously good to keep markets liquid, but it won't solve the debt crisis. The chickens will eventually come home to roost and no amount of money printing is going to be able to stave off deflation if households go into default en-masse. Those insolvency polls have always felt more than a little bogus, as they're marketing for MNP's insolvency business and always seem to have the same apocalyptic result give or take a couple percent. I wonder if they do this "big pharma" style and run as many surveys as it takes to get a high number and silently drop the rest. Just for fun: Half (48%) of Canadians are Less than $200 Away Monthly From Being Financially Insolvent - 18 February 2016 Here's three years of flat historical data I liked this twitter thread right until the last couple where he did the big "goldbug or bitcoiner" reveal... The public declaimers never seem to take the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" route. https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1268204131816218625?s=19
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Jun 4, 2020 07:51
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https://twitter.com/ratespy/status/1268573330652696576?s=21 For all you low interest rate and hyperinflation concern trolls!
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Jun 4, 2020 17:13
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half cocaine posted:https://twitter.com/ratespy/status/1268573330652696576?s=21 https://twitter.com/RateSpy/status/1268592486659784705 When I was grabbing mortgage pre-approvals earlier this year the results left me pretty perturbed about all the stress test-related whining one hears - with the stress test, financing was still readily available for up to 3x what I was willing to spend. So these measures sound more like leveling the playing field between lenders (who are mostly already applying the "no borrowed down payment" restriction and sane debt service ratios) and legitimately protecting first time home buyers from themselves. ... but is it really fifteen years late if it's only going to hurt the people who bought in the last three?
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Jun 4, 2020 18:36
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Does "borrowed" in this case also mean withdrawing from one's RRSP?
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Jun 4, 2020 19:25
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quote:ban borrowed down payments This is a loving megaton. Would mean that parents handing their kids a 100k to get them across the line is now impossible. Would mean that leveraging your HELOC from your apartment can't be used to help buy another apartment. Both of these things the absolute bread and butter for both first time homebuyers and speculative investors.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:09
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Femtosecond posted:This is a loving megaton. Depends on what they mean by "borrowed". My guess is that they're gonna stop the second case (using HELOCs to chain mortgages), but probably not the first, especially since it'd be hard to close all the ways parents could give money to their kids.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:20
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Yeah banning intergenerational wealth transfer sounds difficult to enforce and could be politically unpopular so would be surprised if it goes this far. Will be interesting to see.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:47
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Femtosecond posted:Would mean that parents handing their kids a 100k to get them across the line is now impossible.  if you think people weren't reporting loans from the Bank of Mom & Dad as gifts anyway.
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Jun 4, 2020 20:49
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tagesschau posted:
This. Official loans from parents count against what you're able to borrow. "Gifts" do not.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:22
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HookShot posted:This. Official loans from parents count against what you're able to borrow. "Gifts" do not. There have been a few court cases about the gift vs. loan thing that have popped up in recent years...I would suspect that the banks are going to be all over the paperwork on this to see that gifts are truly declared as such. When faced with paperwork, the willingness to 'gift' the money may not be as apparent when these things are just talked about over dinner at The Olive Garden and consist of "oh, of course I'll pay you back, don't worry about it". Regardless, someone who has a gift downpayment but no credit or marginal credit will still be affected by these other changes. If higher standards are required, the gift down payment may not help that much, especially if the underwriting standards from the banks are going up like I am told by my financial advisor that they are (inspections required, higher incomes required, source of income proven). Wild West days sound like they're done.
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Jun 4, 2020 21:41
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:There have been a few court cases about the gift vs. loan thing that have popped up in recent years...I would suspect that the banks are going to be all over the paperwork on this to see that gifts are truly declared as such. When faced with paperwork, the willingness to 'gift' the money may not be as apparent when these things are just talked about over dinner at The Olive Garden and consist of "oh, of course I'll pay you back, don't worry about it". IIRC the court cases (at least the ones we've talked about in this thread) have been instances where kids and parents had different ideas about whether the money was a gift or a loan, and fought it out in court. Do you have any instances of court cases where the banks/government/CRA have gone after one of these transfers, rather than it being just a family dispute? Edit: and haha it's a step in the right direction, but we're still a ways from taming the Wild West that has been Vancouver's property market literally since the first European settlers arrived. Lead out in cuffs fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jun 4, 2020 |
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Jun 4, 2020 22:01
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Lead out in cuffs posted:IIRC the court cases (at least the ones we've talked about in this thread) have been instances where kids and parents had different ideas about whether the money was a gift or a loan, and fought it out in court. Do you have any instances of court cases where the banks/government/CRA have gone after one of these transfers, rather than it being just a family dispute? 100% this is what happens. Parents give kid a loan to help them, kid goes "oops thought it was a gift" and they deal with it in court. Not a chance they're going to go after parents giving their kids money without any strings. Borrowing (from a money lender) for a downpayment should have been banned so, so long ago. It's insane that people even want to use that as an option.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:06
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i think some of those kids are not being entirely truthful about their internal thought process
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Jun 4, 2020 22:11
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Lead out in cuffs posted:IIRC the court cases (at least the ones we've talked about in this thread) have been instances where kids and parents had different ideas about whether the money was a gift or a loan, and fought it out in court. Do you have any instances of court cases where the banks/government/CRA have gone after one of these transfers, rather than it being just a family dispute? No, I'm thinking of the ones we've talked about here. My point is that if there's a rule about no loans, it stands to reason that the bank may ask for a declaration of the source of the money. Mom and Dad may not be so keen on the gift if it requires documentation that says it's truly a gift, and not a long-term loan. I don't think CRA or anyone else has any role in this, because it's the banks who are looking for reasons to tighten things up. Yeah, you're probably right about the Wild West...I'm too optimistic sometimes.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:11
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Juul-Whip posted:i think some of those kids are not being entirely truthful about their internal thought process I'd be surprised a lot of these characters have an internal thought process at all.
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Jun 4, 2020 22:12
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The gift thing is people borrowing from non-parents. We have been slack on getting gift letters and verifying they have the money on deposit. Mostly because we know the whole family/situation. We just want to know that they don't have other debt obligations. If they are paying the parents back secretly because it really wasn't a gift, who cares? We are worried about court.
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Jun 4, 2020 23:02
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:No, I'm thinking of the ones we've talked about here. My point is that if there's a rule about no loans, it stands to reason that the bank may ask for a declaration of the source of the money. Mom and Dad may not be so keen on the gift if it requires documentation that says it's truly a gift, and not a long-term loan. I don't think CRA or anyone else has any role in this, because it's the banks who are looking for reasons to tighten things up. They already do this. You already have to have a declaration that it's a gift, which is why these cases end up in court, because parents write that declaration with a *wink wink nudge nudge* to their kids because otherwise it would get counted against what the kids can borrow and the kids go "well drat there's a signed thing saying I don't have to pay this back so I won't"
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Jun 5, 2020 00:47
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HookShot posted:They already do this. I didn't know that...it sounds like it was a free for all before. Thanks for clarifying.
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Jun 5, 2020 01:22
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:No, I'm thinking of the ones we've talked about here. My point is that if there's a rule about no loans, it stands to reason that the bank may ask for a declaration of the source of the money. Mom and Dad may not be so keen on the gift if it requires documentation that says it's truly a gift, and not a long-term loan. I don't think CRA or anyone else has any role in this, because it's the banks who are looking for reasons to tighten things up. Yeah it's worth reading Land of Destiny. At least, it is if you have a bit of spare emotional capacity for fury. One of the best parts was Gordon Campbell doing babbies first grift as mayor of Vancouver, when he literally gave a chunk of prime land next to the Granville Street bridge to a developer for free (and presumably kickbacks).
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Jun 5, 2020 01:50
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quote:From CMHC: “Starting July 1, 2020, borrowers must pay the down payment from their own resources. These eligible traditional sources of down payment may include savings, the sale of a property, non-repayable financial gift from a relative, funds borrowed against their liquid financial assets, funds borrowed against their real property, or a government grant.” Phew. All you hard working people who earned your right to have rich parents can now relax.
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Jun 5, 2020 01:59
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Also HELOC-chain-mortgages are still A-OK I guess.
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Jun 5, 2020 03:02
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HELOC chaining completely astounds me at how it's allowed at all. It's one thing taking out a HELOC to buy stocks or whatever, but leveraging to increase your leverage seems insane and something a responsible lender should never accept.
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Jun 5, 2020 20:09
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Saw this chart, couldn't help but repost re: my "big city buyers (ie, high earners) completely untouched by pandemic" case: https://twitter.com/DavidMacCdn/status/1268927466451722240 edit: Different version of same, showing defacto everybody making 60k+ is back to normal, modulo "schools won't take our kids, ahhhh" stuff. https://twitter.com/mikalskuterud/status/1268985730170314753 Sassafras fucked around with this message at 22:07 on Jun 5, 2020 |
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Jun 5, 2020 21:51
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qhat posted:HELOC chaining completely astounds me at how it's allowed at all. It's one thing taking out a HELOC to buy stocks or whatever, but leveraging to increase your leverage seems insane and something a responsible lender should never accept. To be fair, if you have a HELOC on your home its not exceeding 65% of it's value(though you may have a traditional mortgage taking your LTV to 80%). And on the property you are buying, you are putting 20% down(cmhc requires 20 percent equity on rental homes if I'm reading correctly). So between the 2 propertys you have 20 percent minimum equity for each. But more likely 20% on the rental and 35% on the primary. And to qualify for a HELOC it's the same, not qualifying on interest only. If renting it all out is the only way you're paying for all that, good luck.
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Jun 6, 2020 03:23
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Sassafras posted:Saw this chart, couldn't help but repost re: my "big city buyers (ie, high earners) completely untouched by pandemic" case: The rest of the economy hasn't had time to process what's happened. There are going to be all sorts of consequences as things ripple out. Edit: but yeah, as always, the working class will take an unfair amount of the brunt of things The economics of low wage earners is really straightforward in a lot of cases. Not enough immediate production or sales and you drop them. The higher wages earners are justified in longer time scales and it's harder to connect specific people to specific income and expenses. We won't get an idea of how hard it's going to hit or how bad recovery will be for a couple of quarters. This is like when a company loses a major client but across the whole economy. We are in the 'this is temporary. We will figure something out. Let's just get through the next few weeks' with small batches of layoffs part before reality kicks in.
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Jun 6, 2020 03:40
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I have no idea how anyone can claim high earners are fine. Commercial real estate is hosed in most cities as companies finally figured out tech means you don’t need office space or the business that support office workers. This stuff is going to cascade on a massive scale.
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Jun 8, 2020 01:26
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. snipping this one for too much identifiable work deets.
The Butcher fucked around with this message at 03:42 on Jun 8, 2020 |
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Jun 8, 2020 01:59
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Boy are Albertans hosed right now.quote:Alberta couple's costly fleet of seven vehicles leaves retirement plans in neutral
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Jun 8, 2020 04:31
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Femtosecond posted:Boy are Albertans hosed right now. I was going to do a lol at that one but it sounds like people who did well then got into sad boomer hording poo poo. Oh I read further and they are totally fine until death if they just hock some of the toys they don't even use. Lol goes back.
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Jun 8, 2020 04:39
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Femtosecond posted:Boy are Albertans hosed right now. it's the dril candles tweet but with stupid extra vehicles
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Jun 8, 2020 05:05
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The Butcher posted:I was going to do a lol at that one but it sounds like people who did well then got into sad boomer hording poo poo. Yeah those articles are never about anyone in less than the highest quintile of wealth. Like this couple are apparently on disability or something, but also they have a sizeable RRSP, a paid off $500K house, and a small fleet of extra vehicles they could probably liquidate for another $50K or so.
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Jun 8, 2020 05:14
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Femtosecond posted:Boy are Albertans hosed right now. Plenty of great deals for people from BC willing to haul boats/campers/ATVs over the Rockies.
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Jun 8, 2020 05:31
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Femtosecond posted:Boy are Albertans hosed right now. quote:Jesse and Miranda spend $870 per month on utilities, phones, cable and web services. $370 of that is connectivity to the web.
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Jun 8, 2020 05:33
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GlassElephant posted:I had assumed that was lumping a cable + internet bundle and then all the cellphone plans together but then I noticed they had broken those out. How do you spend $370 on just internet? Well there's Jesse's various porn website subscriptions...
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Jun 8, 2020 05:43
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GlassElephant posted:I had assumed that was lumping a cable + internet bundle and then all the cellphone plans together but then I noticed they had broken those out. How do you spend $370 on just internet? Sounds like it includes cell phone data plans to me, the way it's worded. With previous "computer company" and poor spending discipline amply evidenced, let's say 130 for primary home connection, 80 for redundant backup, 2x70 cell data plans, plus 5% tax in all cases. Potentially a commercial home connection for faster service in event of outage.
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Jun 8, 2020 05:55
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Also the two of them are paying $1,300/mo for food (and cleaning supplies for some reason)?
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Jun 8, 2020 05:56
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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Femtosecond posted:Boy are Albertans hosed right now. They're the ones with hundreds in thousands of assets and still getting government handouts. Seems like they're the ones doing the loving.
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Jun 8, 2020 06:14
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Lead out in cuffs posted:Yeah those articles are never about anyone in less than the highest quintile of wealth. These articles are deliberate propaganda prices to detract from the real and actual struggles faced by working class folk.
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Jun 8, 2020 12:33
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