Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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doingitwrong: Jul 27, 2013

How much influence can we possibly have?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 01:00

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 09:51

FreelanceSocialist: Nov 19, 2002

Probably more than we think, given that algos can amplify our actions. A hundred thousand RH traders pile into a shitshow like Hertz? Willing to bet there are some automated processes that see that and jump on to ride the sudden spike in volume. Institutional investors (e.g. municipal trusts) can't touch this poo poo because they're fantastically risk-averse and in most cases are barred from holding anything other than index funds and specific blue chips that their financial advisors green-lit for them.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 01:05

deathbagel: Jun 10, 2008

err posted:

What happened to XELA

I rolled craps.

I averaged down though when it hit 54, if it gets back up into the 60s tomorrow I should be able to get out at even, if it miraculously gaps up I'll be rich!

# ? Jun 11, 2020 01:16

shame on an IGA: Apr 8, 2005

FreelanceSocialist posted:

Probably more than we think, given that algos can amplify our actions. A hundred thousand RH traders pile into a shitshow like Hertz? Willing to bet there are some automated processes that see that and jump on to ride the sudden spike in volume. Institutional investors (e.g. municipal trusts) can't touch this poo poo because they're fantastically risk-averse and in most cases are barred from holding anything other than index funds and specific blue chips that their financial advisors green-lit for them.

my god this is it

the entire active trading market is hedge funds paying quants to mine "the wisdom of crowds" and being front-run by /WSB, which doesn't realize it's the only input into Skynet

# ? Jun 11, 2020 01:36

Inner Light: Jan 2, 2020

For anyone who cares Warrior guy's recap is up for today's $132k gain. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrhKovNsW44

Dunno if it's able to be replicated but it does stoke envy that's for sure. I'm happy for him though. Most of the video is grating YouTuber fluff but has some nuggets if you want to seek around.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 01:59

LibCrusher: Jan 6, 2019; by Fluffdaddy

https://twitter.com/lilspillz69420/status/1270883776847949824?s=21

# ? Jun 11, 2020 02:07

Inner Light: Jan 2, 2020

LibCrusher posted:

https://twitter.com/lilspillz69420/status/1270883776847949824?s=21

I know that feeling yep.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 02:26

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

this is so dumb but has anyone here tried just riding robintrack momentum for overnight trades?

strategy would be, buy top 5 largest % gainers in # of holders over past 24h with 30k-150k holders. sell if stock either passes out of top 5 or surpasses 150k holders. could also do this with options instead of stock buys.

obviously there is some tuning to be done, but, the idea is to ride memes and get out before the rug is pulled.

anyone want to reveal how this tests out?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 02:37

java: May 7, 2005

I�m sorely tempted to open some SPY puts tomorrow morning.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 02:46

Baddog: May 12, 2001

pmchem posted:

this is so dumb but has anyone here tried just riding robintrack momentum for overnight trades?

strategy would be, buy top 5 largest % gainers in # of holders over past 24h with 30k-150k holders. sell if stock either passes out of top 5 or surpasses 150k holders. could also do this with options instead of stock buys.

obviously there is some tuning to be done, but, the idea is to ride memes and get out before the rug is pulled.

anyone want to reveal how this tests out?

I've been eyeballing this sort of thing with a wsb sentiment tracker, but this robintrack site is cleaner (and a lot more traders than just wsb). I might be up for playing around with it.

No historical data available?

edit - ahh i see the data download.

Baddog fucked around with this message at 04:57 on Jun 11, 2020

# ? Jun 11, 2020 03:00

decypher: Aug 23, 2003; Who else see da leprechaun say yaaaa!

Wow, someone who is not me would surely be able to use the data provided on robintracker for much benefit. You go guy!

# ? Jun 11, 2020 03:54

dangling pointer: Feb 12, 2010

pmchem posted:

this is so dumb but has anyone here tried just riding robintrack momentum for overnight trades?

strategy would be, buy top 5 largest % gainers in # of holders over past 24h with 30k-150k holders. sell if stock either passes out of top 5 or surpasses 150k holders. could also do this with options instead of stock buys.

obviously there is some tuning to be done, but, the idea is to ride memes and get out before the rug is pulled.

anyone want to reveal how this tests out?

you could automate your strategy with this unfinished api then test it like knight capital group - push it straight to production.

the example code the docs suggest you run to make sure it's working:

code:

 
# Buy and sell (don't worry it's a cheap stock)
buy_order = rh.place_buy_order(instrument, 1)
sell_order = rh.place_sell_order(instrument, 1)

(don't worry it's a cheap stock)

# ? Jun 11, 2020 04:05

flowinprose: Sep 11, 2001; Where were you? .... when they built that ladder to heaven...

Curious to hear opinions/analysis of this article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...VmAcnpQ-1WjlbJ8

The gist of it is that the financial sector has probably not really taken much heed of the problems that occurred in the mortgage crisis, and instead of causing a real-estate bubble by handing out sub-prime mortages and packaging them into mysterious financial instruments, they may have now caused a corporate loan bubble by handing out "sub-prime" corporate loans and wrapped those into mysterious financial instruments.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 04:13

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

flowinprose posted:

Curious to hear opinions/analysis of this article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazin...VmAcnpQ-1WjlbJ8

The gist of it is that the financial sector has probably not really taken much heed of the problems that occurred in the mortgage crisis, and instead of causing a real-estate bubble by handing out sub-prime mortages and packaging them into mysterious financial instruments, they may have now caused a corporate loan bubble by handing out "sub-prime" corporate loans and wrapped those into mysterious financial instruments.

I keep seeing CLOs get mentioned as the probable cause of the next financial crisis, even before the pandemic. Some guy here in Australia has been wringing his hands over them for years.

I don't know enough about finance to know if they're just the latest bogeyman, or if there's a real potential for them to blow up in a crisis. Part of me thinks the Fed would surely be fully aware of any risks arising from CLOs and be ready to launch pre-prepared programs to mitigate a financial crisis caused by them, despite their public pronouncements that they are perfectly safe. The other part of me seriously doubts Treasury officials and the Fed are the smartest guys in the room right now and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if they've drunk enough of their own bathwater to ignore an impending crisis until it's too late.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 05:10

Frequent Handies: Nov 26, 2006; ��

gay picnic defence posted:

I keep seeing CLOs get mentioned as the probable cause of the next financial crisis, even before the pandemic. Some guy here in Australia has been wringing his hands over them for years.

I don't know enough about finance to know if they're just the latest bogeyman, or if there's a real potential for them to blow up in a crisis. Part of me thinks the Fed would surely be fully aware of any risks arising from CLOs and be ready to launch pre-prepared programs to mitigate a financial crisis caused by them, despite their public pronouncements that they are perfectly safe. The other part of me seriously doubts Treasury officials and the Fed are the smartest guys in the room right now and I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if they've drunk enough of their own bathwater to ignore an impending crisis until it's too late.

Genuinely curious why you think the Fed would have any preparedness at all at this point in time. It's not as if CDOs were unknown at the time they were kicking around and we know how that shook out. It certainly wasn't with some West Wing style prepared mitigation plan.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 05:33

D-Pad: Jun 28, 2006

So I am looking to do the virtual trading to practice trading options. The Market Watch game linked in the OP doesn't appear to have options unless I am missing something. Can anybody suggest a good option virtual game app/site I can gently caress around on?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 06:44

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Frequent Handies posted:

Genuinely curious why you think the Fed would have any preparedness at all at this point in time. It's not as if CDOs were unknown at the time they were kicking around and we know how that shook out. It certainly wasn't with some West Wing style prepared mitigation plan.

Mainly because you would *hope* an organisation with the Fed's responsibilities would've done some risk management work and scenario planning when the pandemic kicked off, if not earlier given the similarities of CLOs to CDOs which caused problems in the past. I mean surely all the modelling they do for economic forecasts would have to consider a number of different scenarios taking place and responses to those, which would at a bare minimum provide a vary basic plan.

This is all assuming it's a competent and diligent organisation of course, and well...

# ? Jun 11, 2020 06:48

Grouchio: Aug 31, 2014

Is the general consensus/expectation that the second pandemic wave will be worse (or slightly better) for unemployment and/or layoffs than the first wave was in March/April?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 09:03

Ola: Jul 19, 2004

Grouchio posted:

Is the general consensus/expectation that the second pandemic wave will be worse (or slightly better) for unemployment and/or layoffs than the first wave was in March/April?

I have no idea what the general consensus is. I don't think a second wave will have as many layoffs (in addition to the ones already there). But there is a disconnect between the stock market and the real economy which will catch up one way or the other, i.e. by stocks going down hard soon or by stocks not growing very fast while the real economy catches up.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 09:09

Josh Lyman: May 24, 2009

Grouchio posted:

Is the general consensus/expectation that the second pandemic wave will be worse (or slightly better) for unemployment and/or layoffs than the first wave was in March/April?

The second wave won�t be worse for layoffs in the sense that we won�t have any more lockdowns.

The way it�ll happen is if people don�t go out to restaurants and stuff and those business go under.

Dow futures down 500. I sold 20% of my long near the close yesterday. Should�ve sold more. Maybe I can finally get in LULU and back into NVDA and TSLA.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 09:12

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Grouchio posted:

Is the general consensus/expectation that the second pandemic wave will be worse (or slightly better) for unemployment and/or layoffs than the first wave was in March/April?

I don't think (most) states will be willing to reinstate lockdowns, however if it gets bad enough maybe people will naturally try to stay out of harms way which could easily have the same economic effects as a lockdown.

I think the only scenario where unemployment goes down is if people ignore the second wave en masse (or people are forced to return to work at gunpoint) which I would have to think is unlikely once you guys start having hospitals overflowing again.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 09:32

doingitwrong: Jul 27, 2013

Grouchio posted:

Is the general consensus/expectation that the second pandemic wave will be worse (or slightly better) for unemployment and/or layoffs than the first wave was in March/April?

There isn�t going to be a second wave because the first wave never really ended. The disease is endemic now in the US. We failed to contain it and what happens next will be a range of local effects.

The Atlantic�s reporting on this has been solid.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/06/america-giving-up-on-pandemic/612796/

# ? Jun 11, 2020 10:53

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

I guess we�re selling off on the Fed stating explicitly that they�re printing money and giving it away for the next two years and don�t care about inflation or asset prices, and the thing that might save us is a really big unemployment number getting announced at 8:30?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 11:14

Sepist: Dec 26, 2005; FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS; Gravy Boat 2k

edit: Backtesting this sucks, it's not nearly as good as seeing all the indicators separately. Ignore this post

Okay I finished turning all of my trading indicators into a single indicator to use with ToS. You guys can take a look at it if you want.

Only useful on the 1m/5m indices futures. I haven't tested it on stocks but wouldn't expect it to work there. I'm still messing with the loopback period but 5 seems to be the best one so far, going higher makes it less reliable.

The way it works is it will paint a green arrow or red arrow when there's a potential trade. Red arrow is short, Green arrow is long. I would only use it during normal trading hours, the after-hour market is too weird to trade with this.

code:

# This is an upper indicator

def highest = if close > Highest(close[1],10) then 1 else 0;
def lowest = if close < Lowest(close[1],10) then 1 else 0;

input lookback = 5;


def lengthfi = 13;

def FI = ExpAverage(data = (close - close[1]) * volume, lengthfi);
def F4 = Highest(FI[1],lookback);
def FI2 = if (FI > F4) && highest == 1  then 1 else 0;
def FI3 =  if (FI < Lowest(FI,lookback)) && lowest == 1    then 1 else 0;


def fastLength = 12;
def slowLength = 26;
def MACDLength = 9;
def averageTypemacd = AverageType.EXPONENTIAL;

def Value = MovingAverage(averageTypemacd, close, fastLength) - MovingAverage(averageTypemacd, close, slowLength);
def Avg = MovingAverage(averageTypemacd, Value, MACDLength);

def Diff = Value - Avg;
def Diff2 = if (Diff > Highest(Diff[1],lookback)) && highest == 1   then 1 else 0;
def Diff3 =  if (Diff < Lowest(Diff[1],lookback)) && lowest == 1   then 1 else 0;



def AO = AwesomeOscillator();

def AC = AO - Average(AO, 5);
def AC2 = if (AC > Highest(AC[1],lookback)) && highest == 1  then 1 else 0;
def AC3 = if (AC < Lowest(AC[1],lookback))  && lowest == 1 then 1 else 0;


def over_bought = 80;
def over_sold = 20;
def KPeriod = 10;
def DPeriod = 3;
def priceH = high;
def priceL = low;
def priceC = close;
def averageType = AverageType.SIMPLE;

def FastD = reference StochasticFull(over_bought, over_sold, KPeriod, DPeriod, priceH, priceL, priceC, 1, averageType).FullD;
def FastD2 = if (FastD > Highest(FastD[1],lookback)) && highest == 1  then 1 else 0;
def FastD3 = if (FastD < Lowest(FastD[1],lookback)) && lowest == 1  then 1 else 0;


def lengthcci = 14;

def pricecci = close + low + high;
def linDev = lindev(pricecci, lengthcci);
def CCI = if linDev == 0 then 0 else (pricecci - Average(pricecci, lengthcci)) / linDev / 0.015;
def CCI2 = if (CCI > Highest(CCI[1],lookback)) && highest == 1  then 1 else 0;
def CCI3 = if (CCI < Lowest(CCI[1],lookback)) && lowest == 1  then 1 else 0;


def price = close;
def lengthrsi = 14;
def averageTypersi = AverageType.WILDERS;

def NetChgAvg = MovingAverage(averageTypersi, price - price[1], lengthrsi);
def TotChgAvg = MovingAverage(averageTypersi, AbsValue(price - price[1]), lengthrsi);
def ChgRatio = if TotChgAvg != 0 then NetChgAvg / TotChgAvg else 0;

def RSI = 50 * (ChgRatio + 1);
def RSI2 = if (RSI > Highest(RSI[1],lookback)) && highest == 1  then 1 else 0;
def RSI3 = if (RSI < Lowest(RSI[1],lookback)) && lowest == 1  then 1 else 0;

plot short =  if ((FI2 + Diff2 + AC2 + FastD2 + CCI2 + RSI2) == 0) && highest == 1  then 1 else Double.NaN;
plot long =  if ((FI3 + Diff3 + AC3 + FastD3 + CCI3 + RSI3) == 0) && lowest == 1  then 1 else Double.NaN;
short.HideTitle();
short.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);
short.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.BOOLEAN_ARROW_DOWN);
short.SetLineWeight(3);
long.HideTitle();
long.SetDefaultColor(Color.GREEN);
long.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.BOOLEAN_ARROW_UP);
long.SetLineWeight(3);

I wasn't gonna post it but ultimately it only tells one part of the story, you still need proper risk management and figuring out exit points in order for it to be profitable.

Sepist fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Jun 11, 2020

# ? Jun 11, 2020 12:08

FreelanceSocialist: Nov 19, 2002

Ok, which one of you forgot to buy new ink cartridges for the overnight money printer?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:21

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

it's really amazing. I figured we'd have some chop, maybe a drop to 3150. But it's going down like it we're in March.

Not sure if I want to take some gains (and losses) today or just wait for a bounce day (which could be as early as tomorrow...).

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:23

Sepist: Dec 26, 2005; FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS; Gravy Boat 2k

Gonna be a lot of loss porn on WSB, those guys went full bull

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:26

pmchem: Jan 22, 2010

weekly unemployment report is out: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
headline number: 1.54m
continuing claims: 20.93m
PUA claims: 705k

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:31

FreelanceSocialist: Nov 19, 2002

loving lol

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:31

AtomicSX: Jan 10, 2007

Probably missed out on at least $1000 in profit selling my SPY and DIS puts on Tuesday. Such is life.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:32

flowinprose: Sep 11, 2001; Where were you? .... when they built that ladder to heaven...

ROFL someone assigned me on some HTZ 07/17/2020 0.50 C call options so I am now short 1700 shares... those calls had almost 0.25 of time value left on them, and overnight the share price has dropped another 25%. Appreciate handing me a free $350 and sparing me the necessity of having to cross the bid/ask of the options.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:32

Tokyo Sex Whale: Oct 9, 2012; "My butt smells like vanilla ice cream"

Pretty sure I posted in like April that I was going to go all in short when VIX hit 25. I didn�t do it because I figured brrrr, etc. I�m not like leveraged long or anything but I�ve either dodged or made money the last 3 crashes and I�m gonna get walloped here if this is the big one.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:34

gay picnic defence: Oct 5, 2009; I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

So 1.5mil new claims?

There must be some significant shockwaves going around if there's still more than double the pre-pandemic record number of people losing their jobs in a week despite Open 'Er Up.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:34

Hit Man: Mar 6, 2008; I hope after I die people will say of me: "That guy sure owed me a lot of money."

Lotta red. Time for entry back to ZM, MNRA? Stay at home whatever?

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:37

reignofevil: Nov 7, 2008

Tokyo Sex Whale posted:

Pretty sure I posted in like April that I was going to go all in short when VIX hit 25. I didn�t do it because I figured brrrr, etc. I�m not like leveraged long or anything but I�ve either dodged or made money the last 3 crashes and I�m gonna get walloped here if this is the big one.

Hell, same.

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:43

Jack Daniels: Nov 14, 2002

finally jesus

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:50

flowinprose: Sep 11, 2001; Where were you? .... when they built that ladder to heaven...

Dwight Eisenhower posted:

If you look at the fibonacci retracement levels for the drop on SPY from 339.08 to 218.26:

- You see reversals near 264.41 (38.2%), 292.93 (61.8%), and 313.22 (literally yesterday's high, 78.6%).
- You see support near 246.77(23.6%), and 278.67 (50%)

I haven't played with fib levels before and since they don't provide rock hard boundaries you always have to squint to make stuff fit. But, they don't look completely useless on this recovery.

So the theory would be we bounce off 313.22 (yesterday afternoon), and then drop until we hit the previous fib level (292.93), at which point we turn around and test 313.22 again. I might buy some 2 week puts if today bears that out.

I just want to revisit this post, because we are right now just a little under the 313.22 mark.

Also, if you use the most recent "top" of 323.41 with the March low of 218.26, you get:
Retracements
0% (b) 323.41
23.6% 298.5946
38.2% 283.2427
50% 270.835
61.8% 258.4273
76.4% 243.0754
100% (a) 218.26
138.2% 178.0927

flowinprose fucked around with this message at 13:54 on Jun 11, 2020

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:51

Sepist: Dec 26, 2005; FUCK BITCHES, ROUTE PACKETS; Gravy Boat 2k

Dwight also called the GEX being above a certain number that normally indicates a pullback and that was right on the nose

# ? Jun 11, 2020 13:52

karoshi: Nov 4, 2008; "Can somebody mspaint eyes on the steaming packages? TIA" yeah well fuck you too buddy, this is the best you're gonna get. Is this even "work-safe"? Let's find out!

D-Pad posted:

So I am looking to do the virtual trading to practice trading options. The Market Watch game linked in the OP doesn't appear to have options unless I am missing something. Can anybody suggest a good option virtual game app/site I can gently caress around on?

Thinkorswim.com paper trading. It's not a game, but the UI is the best (I know of). But beware of virtual execution, it's often very optimistic. Keep yourself honest and adjust your virtual money after too good fills. Real execution won't fill at 50% spread for every blip of the bid/ask prices. If you don't adjust after execution you'll think you're a financial genius. Rule of thumb for me was somewhere around 1-2 ticks against me off average 50% spread for a liquid option.

karoshi fucked around with this message at 14:04 on Jun 11, 2020

# ? Jun 11, 2020 14:02

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 09:51

err: Apr 11, 2005; I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

SELL

# ? Jun 11, 2020 14:05

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Ask/Tell > Business, Finance, and Careers > Livestock Trading Thread: Baa or better

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