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Lol you love to see it . Predictions for how any of the party members are gonna vote on this?
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Jun 15, 2020 14:08
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Jun 15, 2020 15:05
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Failed Imagineer posted:Lol you love to see it . FG gonna endorse it and I think FF will do so at this rate - getting the top spot first in a rotating taoiseach with equal cabinet split between FF and FG and their very poor post election polling will probably be enough to push them over, though I expect a small rump to vote against. The Greens rules require two thirds of members to ratify so that will be the one to watch, but considering the relatively lukewarm reception to the calls for a challenger to Ryan for leadership to run on a no deal platform not sure if they have the numbers to sink the deal but you never know
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Jun 15, 2020 17:44
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kustomkarkommando posted:FG gonna endorse it and I think FF will do so at this rate - getting the top spot first in a rotating taoiseach with equal cabinet split between FF and FG and their very poor post election polling will probably be enough to push them over, though I expect a small rump to vote against. Yeah that's my feeling too. Greens is a bit of a tossup and it doesn't sound like they've been promised too much, will be edifying to see how worthless and craven they really are (again)
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Jun 15, 2020 18:41
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FG will pass it no problem given their voting system. FF members are absolutely terrified of going back to the electorate given their nose dive in the polls, so their membership will be frightened into passing it relatively easily. The Green vote is the only potential kink in the plan. Needing 2/3rds of the membership to approve it, and a big chunk of the more recent members especially being very left-wing/anti FFG, is a problem. They've done very well out of the negotiations though, from the initial look of things the Greens have had as much influence on the Program for Government as either of the two much bigger parties - if not more. Which should help a lot. I'd also agree with kustomkarkommando that the lack of any Green spokesman/woman coming forward to take charge of a campaign to reject the deal (and/or challenge Ryan) is big. If all the major party personalities are united in lobbying in favour of the deal it'll make a huge difference to getting it enough votes.
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Jun 15, 2020 18:42
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Hot off the presses tonight: In TDs by my rough calculation that'd translate to: 65-75 FG 40-50 SF 15-25 FF (lol) FG will be praying that FF or the Greens reject the deal and they're "forced" into another election.
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Jun 15, 2020 22:15
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I can't understand this loving country. How are those shitheads that much more popular now?
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Jun 15, 2020 22:21
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I can't understand this loving country. How are those shitheads that much more popular now? "Ah sher Leo handled the lockdown well, and it's nice to have your leader be a doctor and not some dumb oval office like Trump" That's literally all it could possibly be. We completely deserve a brutal austerity government. The voters of this country are complete morons, it's just a shame most other countries are even worse and have worse electoral systems. Nevertheless, incredible that Micheál "charisma of a sick bag" Martin can lord it over the nation despite his party being less popular than nappy rash Failed Imagineer fucked around with this message at 22:28 on Jun 15, 2020 |
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Jun 15, 2020 22:25
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I can't understand this loving country. How are those shitheads that much more popular now? Varadkar's approval rating is up 45% (!!) which is a big part of it:  Having a leader who just displays a basic modicum of intelligence and composure is unfortunately a bit of a rarity in the English speaking world these days. So I'd suspect hes getting a huge bump thanks to people mentally comparing his corona performance to Trump or BoJo, the only other leaders regularly in the news here. Leo's an awful neo-liberal/Thatcherite, and probably morally the worst leader of any major Irish political party, but hes still leagues above those two.
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Jun 15, 2020 22:28
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Just rereading that and I see that government approval is up 51% at a time where we have no real government. Just lmao
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Jun 15, 2020 22:55
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Failed Imagineer posted:"Ah sher Leo handled the lockdown well, and it's nice to have your leader be a doctor and not some dumb oval office like Trump"
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Jun 15, 2020 23:24
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Unsurprising news about FG popularity - lotta people think they've done very well, but again its just the brits and yanks making us look good by comparison. The anglosphere loving sucks. Looks like this government formations going ahead - it won't last though. Not when they all actually have to be in the room with one another. FG popularity is gonna nosedive when wave two is in full swing at the start of Autumn.
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Jun 16, 2020 02:47
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Couple of prominent greens coming forward to oppose the programme for government - Nessa Hourigan, their finance spokesman and policy chair who's often pointed to as the leading Young Green, probably the most prominent. Also something has gone a bit wonky over at FG hq: https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1273579199127867394?s=19 Apparently no one knows who sent it out - though young fine gael did come out to announce they will vote against the deal but it's YFG so who cares
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Jun 18, 2020 15:09
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Nobody cares until they get spotted hanging out with fascists and then suddenly they're the future of the party and need to be protected at all costs.
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Jun 18, 2020 16:20
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Anyone else think it's a bit odd that Garda was carrying a firearm for what was essentially an argument?
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Jun 18, 2020 17:57
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Anyone else think it's a bit odd that Garda was carrying a firearm for what was essentially an argument? Detectives carry firearms
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Jun 18, 2020 18:10
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My sympathies go out to the garda/his family, the whole thing is very unfortunate. But it does really reinforce the argument for them not carrying firearms in their day-to-day duties. If the garda here hadn't been armed its highly unlikely the scuffle would have escalated to his gun being used against him and his death. Instead worst case scenario he probably would have gotten a bit of a beating. The guns should be kept to the ERU to be used in gangland/terror situations that require them.
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Jun 18, 2020 18:59
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Brass Hand posted:Detectives carry firearms From my understanding not all detectives are issued firearms. And even if they were he was supposedly on normal patrol when he came across this guy. My deepest sympathies to the departed guard, but if he wasnt armed he might not have died. Also the papers are calling this a murder. Homicides where the deceased brought the fatal weapons are very often end in convictions for manslaughter not murder. Because of how hard it is to prove intent when they didn't have a weapon on them.
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Jun 18, 2020 20:30
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The ones that are issued are supposed to keep theirs in the boot of their car most of the time too, so this raises all kinds of questions.
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Jun 18, 2020 21:06
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Honestly, I know it was controversial to say, but I was critical when Mark Hennessy was shot dead. Like that really seemed like a situation that got badly out of hand, and then the spin comes into it. Don't get me wrong, what Hennessy did was awful. But at the time the guards say that they couldn't rule him out for every unsolved disappearance for every woman in Ireland.
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Jun 18, 2020 22:06
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The Question IRL posted:From my understanding not all detectives are issued firearms. Ah okay I thought they all did.
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Jun 18, 2020 23:18
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Detective Gardai are not supposed to carry for no reason. Gotta sign out of the gunsafe, sign your declaration etc. It's very strange to me that he was carrying a firearm. Maybe he'd been at the range earlier in the day and was still strapped for whatever reason. It's very suspicious.The Question IRL posted:Honestly, I know it was controversial to say, but I was critical when Mark Hennessy was shot dead. Nah man you're entirely correct for questioning that situation, the official story is they had been told he had a firearm in the car, and that he wouldn't show his hands. (He was attempting to self harm.) Detective drew on him, fired, hit his shoulder, bullet hopped off his clavicle and made its way through centre of mass, which killed him. Personally, I don't think the cop was going for a kill shot. But, there was three gardai and civil defence on the scene when he died, they could have kicked the poo poo out of him. The whole thing stinks as he was known to gardai and they liked him for other disappearances.
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Jun 19, 2020 01:27
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It's difficult to have these conversations because most people's innate response is that you come off as either anti-guard or pro-abductor but there's a serious problem in Ireland with how firearms are being deployed in public.
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Jun 19, 2020 10:59
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Bedshaped posted:It's difficult to have these conversations because most people's innate response is that you come off as either anti-guard or pro-abductor but there's a serious problem in Ireland with how firearms are being deployed in public. It's not just the increase in firearms being deployed that has me concerned. It's how the media are spinning it. A guard shoots Mark Hennessy dead? Well he was probably a serial rapist and murderer so that makes it okay. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6442391/mark-hennessy-linked-to-ten-more-murders-in-ireland/ They seriously tried to link him to crimes that would have happened when Mark was 15 years old. With this Roscommon case they are bring out testimony about how 15 rounds were fired and how nice a guard, Garda Horkan was. I'm sure he was a good person. But is this some sort of pre-emptive memorialising to detract questions away from why he had his gun out on normal patrol? At least when that Limerick Guard shot himself in the foot last year they reported on that. Which is something.
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Jun 19, 2020 11:15
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A lot of them are trained by US specialists and any of the poo poo they come out with about arming up sounds like they watch too many cop shows. It's sad someone is dead but that guy shouldn't have had a gun on him and if he didn't he'd likely be alive now. The way everyone in the media is coming out to praise him right now is cynical.
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Jun 19, 2020 11:44
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loving sun is a garbage paper. Their “vanishing” triangle covers from the midlands, up to Louth and down to Wexford incorporating Waterford. And I personally know one of the vanishes on their list, it’s well known the boyfriend murdered her. I’d say the rest of the vanished aren’t so mysterious either, just lack the evidence and can’t say due to libel laws.
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Jun 19, 2020 11:45
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Marenghi posted:loving sun is a garbage paper. Their “vanishing” triangle covers from the midlands, up to Louth and down to Wexford incorporating Waterford. Oh I know the Scum is an awful paper. But they didn't invent the "now that he's dead, we can close the book on all these unsolved disappearance of women." Story. They just ran with it.
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Jun 19, 2020 11:49
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I'm not sure how much sense it makes to try and smear a guy with additional murders when it's pretty clear that it came during the middle of a severe mental break\coke bender, but I guess they needed to protect a Gard at all costs  It's super suss that a Garda would stop someone on the road for driving a motorcycle and thought "oh yeah I should bring my gun". But RIP to that herocop I'm sure whatever was going he was only trying to further the cause of peace and order on our fair island ect ect
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Jun 19, 2020 11:56
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This thread is the only place I've seen people (entirely justifiably) questioning why the garda was carrying a gun, while by himself, on the street. I hope the media gives it a bit of coverage once the sadness stuff dies down... But wouldn't bet on it. Has anyone seen/heard any speculation of why he was carrying a gun in that situation? It seems very unusual/questionable.
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Jun 19, 2020 13:12
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Southpaugh posted:
I'm not really calling you out on this in particular, but the concept of a "kill shot" is some Americanized hero-cop fantasia - if you shoot somebody with a lethal or "less-than-lethal" weapon then you can reasonably expect to kill them, for the exact kind of reasons you describe in that case. Not saying that cops shouldn't avoid headshotting their victims, just that this kind of language is insidious and pervasive
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Jun 19, 2020 13:33
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm not really calling you out on this in particular, but the concept of a "kill shot" is some Americanized hero-cop fantasia - if you shoot somebody with a lethal or "less-than-lethal" weapon then you can reasonably expect to kill them, for the exact kind of reasons you describe in that case. Not saying that cops shouldn't avoid headshotting their victims, just that this kind of language is insidious and pervasive As a veteran of the Counterstrike wars of the early 2000s I can safely say you're wrong there. Everyone knows a headshot is the only reliable kill shot, each shot to the chest will only take 30% or so HP. Joking aside I do think video games like Counterstrike or COD have a lot of blame for this view people have that you can "safely" shoot someone. That only headshots are instant killers, and when shooting someone its simply a matter of choosing which body part to aim at. Its worth anyones time when visiting the US to actually go to a gun range and fire a few guns. Its a fun experience, and pretty eye opening seeing what its actually like in real life vs video games / films.
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Jun 19, 2020 16:08
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The big question I haven't seen asked, is why the guy who did it was out on the street in the first place. The Irish Times says he has a history of mental health issues and drug and alcohol abuse. He had been brought to Castlerea Garda station for a period the previous day due to his behaviour. The Gardai can only take someone into custody if they think they are a serious risk to themselves or others. They have to be assessed by a Doctor before they can be released, and can be committed to a hospital only if the Doctor signs off on it. If he was taken into custody, the Gardai clearly felt he was a danger to himself or others. I know of more than one case where either a Doctor has said that someone who was threatening to take their own life is not at any risk and the Gardai have had no choice but to release them, or where the Doctor has tried to have someone committed, and the local psychiatric hospital has refused to admit them. A friend of mine recently waited something like 6 weeks for a bed in a psychiatric hospital when they have a history of serious depression and suicide attempts and showed their Doctor a stash of prescription painkillers they were actively planning to take. The state of mental health services in this country is utterly abysmal, even by HSE standards.
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Jun 19, 2020 16:41
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cormac posted:The big question I haven't seen asked, is why the guy who did it was out on the street in the first place. The Irish Times says he has a history of mental health issues and drug and alcohol abuse. He had been brought to Castlerea Garda station for a period the previous day due to his behaviour. So in answer to your question, the state of mental health services is quite bad. It's also quite hard to actually get someone put inside. A shortage of beds is a big problem. (There is also an issue with the existing places that treat mental health issues. The CMH from what I have heard is run like Arkham Asylum. Without the constant escapees.) For the people on the streets who have mental health issues, if they take their medications, they are fine. The problem is when they stop taking their meds (for a variety of reasons) or take something that interferes with their meds (like alcohol. That stuff that is embedded in Irish society.) A lot of the time the Garda are called to deal with people having mental health issues, often because the people witnessing them are in fear for their own safety. And that is understandable. But a guard is not the best person to be dealing with someone having a mental health issue, particularly at 1.00 AM, when the guards are often the only ones on duty. Also (and this is anecdotal I accept and again may not be a popular opinion.) I think that there has been an increase in the number of young people (and young men in particular) presenting with issues of paranoid schizophrenia due to increased cannabis use. This isn't because cannabis causes such issues. Rather it's something that the person likely already was genetically predisposed towards being activated earlier and more severely due to increased THC levels in cannabis.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:17
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The Question IRL posted:So in answer to your question, the state of mental health services is quite bad. I specifically meant why was he released by the medical people after being detained by the gardai the day before, when it now seems pretty likely he was having a very severe psychiatric episode rather than a general question about the mental health sector, but yeah the CMH is apparently a victorian shithole. I think its being replaced fairly soon though. Currently, they don't have the beds to treat prisoners in the general prison system so if you're locked up in Portlaoise or Mountjoy or wherever and end up having a psychiatric illness that requires hospitalisation, more often than not you are staying in prison and not getting the necessary treatment. I work in a related area and from my experience the Gardai, while obviously not being medical professionals, are pretty decent when it comes to mental health issues. They arent the right people to deal with it, but like you said they are often the first people available. From what I have seen the failures are with the medical side. Its not unusual for someone to spend hours in the cells waiting for a doctor to show up for an assessment, after presenting to the Gardai in a very bad state, only for them to be immediately released when the Doctors say they're not a danger, or for the psychiatric hospitals to refuse to accept people who the assessing doctor has said need immediate hospitalisation for minor clerical errors like spelling mistakes in the paperwork.
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Jun 19, 2020 17:46
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cormac posted:I specifically meant why was he released by the medical people after being detained by the gardai the day before, when it now seems pretty likely he was having a very severe psychiatric episode rather than a general question about the mental health sector, So the answer is pretty complicated. Basically if the guards arrest someone, unless there is a committal warrant (which are issued when someone escapes from prison. Or has a sentence imposed, gets out on bail, never shows up to their appeal and has the sentence re-activated.) They can't really keep them in custody for that long. Basically if they have them arrested and charged they have to bring them to the next sitting of court for the issue of bail.* So if you arrest someone on a Wednesday after 16.00 they are likely staying in the jail cells of that Garda Station until they go to court in the next morning. And if they get arrested on a Saturday afternoon, they aren't going anywhere until Monday. So now that you have arrested a person, there is little you can do until court happens. It's the court that decides if a person gets bail or not. A doctor can come to treat a person if they are having a medical issue but that in and of itself is it's own can of worms. The doctor can't determine that a person is a danger to themselves on their own. It's a much more involved and longer process and one that you just aren't going to get done on a Wednesday night at 1.00 AM. So it falls back on the guards, and what are they going to do. If they do arrest someone for being a threat to themselves or others and decide that they want to keep them over night, that creates it's own problems. Basically the jail cell is in that Garda station. They have to be checked on regularly. Now with your average burglar or drunk, they might be argy bargy for a few hours. Then go to sleep. But someone who is having a a psychotic episode will probably be screaming and kicking the door all night long. And that can be one very loud and long night with a sick individual who you can't convince to stop doing this. Where as if you take them to the Garda station, charge them hold them until they calm down and then release them on station bail, they might have stopped having their episode and go somewhere else to be left alone. Basically each decision has a lot of consequences. And that's before you get into the current situation with Covid-19 where trying to do your job could get you sick. Suddenly station bail becomes a lot of an easier decision. *= This assumes they don't bail them out that night. This is a process known as station bail** and generally happens when someone is arrested for something minor like a Public Order offence. **= Not to be confused with Squad Car bail. Which is the nickname for when the guards "arrest" someone, put them in the squad car all as a presence to get information out of them. As they are a Garda informant.
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Jun 19, 2020 20:32
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I don't think you understand what I'm saying.The Question IRL posted:So the answer is pretty complicated. According to the papers, he wasn't arrested. He was detained under the mental health act, which is a completely different thing. There is no court appearance involved, and bail is not relevant - the outcome is determined entirely by Doctors. The person is detained until a Doctor determines if they need to be committed, and if the Doctor says they don't then they get released immediately as the Gardai have no legal power to hold them any more. If the Doctor signs off on it, they get taken to a Hospital and handed over to the care of hospital. I understand the process and how it's supposed to work, because I work in a related area. Because he was released, we can deduce that either: A - The GP determined that he wasn't dangerous, and the Gardai were legally obliged to release him or B- The Doctor determined that he was dangerous, but the hospital was unwilling or unable to take him in. He then shot and killed a garda within 24 hours, which would suggest that he was very much a danger to others. This being the case, my question is, how did the doctor or doctors involved get their diagnosis so badly wrong, or if they knew he was dangerous why did they let him go? (While its possible that the Gardai just decided to say gently caress it and let him out without a medical assessment, in my experience, this is incredibly unlikely. They dont have the power to detain someone unless they think they are an immediate danger to themselves or others, so they only detain people who are very obviously seriously unwell .)
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Jun 19, 2020 22:47
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The Question IRL posted:This isn't because cannabis causes such issues. Rather it's something that the person likely already was genetically predisposed towards being activated earlier and more severely due to increased THC levels in cannabis. That problem will get better when prohibition is over. The tendency towards strength is entirely due to the arbitrary valuing of cannabis. A plant has the same value whether its a seedling or ready for harvest. An ounce has the same sentencing value whether its 5% THC or 25%. May as well carry the strongest stuff because you'll need less weight for the same amount of active ingredient. It was same as alcohol prohibition, everything was strong spirits and people getting alcohol poisoning from it. I've heard in the States "dad" weed is becoming popular. Weaker strains closer to the strength middle aged men would have been used to when they stopped smoking as teens/young adults.
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Jun 19, 2020 23:05
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Failed Imagineer posted:I'm not really calling you out on this in particular, but the concept of a "kill shot" is some Americanized hero-cop fantasia - if you shoot somebody with a lethal or "less-than-lethal" weapon then you can reasonably expect to kill them, for the exact kind of reasons you describe in that case. Not saying that cops shouldn't avoid headshotting their victims, just that this kind of language is insidious and pervasive Thats fair - I'm guilty of only being imprecise with my language. I do not think the cop decided to summarily execute the man. Which is to say I do not think he intended to lethally wound him, when I say kill-shot I mean a cop kill shot, which is rounds delivered to centre of mass, not a headshot. Handguns are actually hard to hit things with as I'm sure any gun goons drive by-ing the thread could attest to. So no I don't need to be told off, and I agree with you. He should not have fired. He could have been manhandled out of the scene.
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Jun 20, 2020 02:51
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cormac posted:I don't think you understand what I'm saying. So there is two points here. The first is that for the Garda to intervene they had to decide if Mr. Silver is a threat to himself or to others. Now threat here can be at any level from actively attacking people, to wandering erratically. (IE that you might do something unexpected like walk into traffic.) So while there might have been a cause to detain him and investigate, there might not have been a serious likelihood of such threat to his own or other's life to warrant arresting Mr. Silver. In fact, given that it sounds like he was known and dealt with often by the guards, they may have decided that he was someone who needed a bit of watching, and might have been annoying, he wasn't someone who needed immediate incarceration. https://extra.ie/2020/06/19/news/irish-news/colm-horkan-suspect-castlerea-garda-shooting cormac posted:He then shot and killed a garda within 24 hours, which would suggest that he was very much a danger to others. This being the case, my question is, how did the doctor or doctors involved get their diagnosis so badly wrong, or if they knew he was dangerous why did they let him go? This is something that is only obvious with hindsight. From what is being reported, Mr. Silver isn't someone who has a long history of violence. Even if there had been incidents where the Garda thought he was a threat, it doesn't follow that it was a threat to someone else's life. (Sadly that does happen. People who are in the middle of episodes where they often think other people are the devil out to kill them and that they have to act first.) Rarely do you get people presented where they represent a clear and present danger. As of now, we don't know what the interaction was like between Garda Horkan and Mr. Silver. The guard could have come up peacefully to him and Mr. Silver took his weapon and shot him dead. I think this is unlikely given he didn't have a history of violence. It could have been Mr. Silver had a reaction when approached by someone in plain clothes and thought he was about to be attacked. There could have been an aggressive interaction where a gun was being brandished that made Mr. Silver fight back. As of yet, we don't know. My experience says that even though Mr. Silver has been charged with Murder he won't be convicted for it. Either through reason of insanity or that a jury will decide that there was no intention here. And there certainly isn't enough evidence to increase the charge to S.40 Murder. (What was the old Capital Murder.)
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Jun 20, 2020 15:24
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The Question IRL posted:So there is two points here. Again, you are completely missing my point. Arrest is never an option the Gardai have for someone who is mentally ill. They can detain you, which is a different thing entirely to arrest. As we know he was detained, we can surmise that the Gardai believed he was a danger to himself or others. If they hadn't had that belief, they couldn't have held him at all. You cant arrest somebody because you think they are a danger to themselves, you can only detain them under the mental health act. You can be arrested if there is a warrant, issued by a court, or if the Gardai have reason to believe you are guilty of committing an arrestable offence. Being mentally ill is not an arrestable offence. He was arrested after shooting the Garda as murder is an arrestable offence. The Question IRL posted:In fact, given that it sounds like he was known and dealt with often by the guards, they may have decided that he was someone who needed a bit of watching, and might have been annoying, he wasn't someone who needed immediate incarceration. The fact that he was detained under the mental health act says otherwise The Question IRL posted:
It was enough of a concern to the Gardai that they detained him. This is literally the only reason that the Gardai have to detain someone under the mental health act, that they are believed to be a danger to themselves or to others. You can behave as erratically as you want, as long as you don't appear to be a danger, you cannot be detained under the mental health act. The Doctors clearly disagreed or he wouldn't have been released.
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Jun 20, 2020 17:56
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