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Guest2553 posted:Biggest since the last one, anyways. And the one before that. Well we know what happens after that. But yeah, the debt bubble will outlast this thread. Incredible. Well done Canada. Well done realtors. Well done everyone.
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Jun 25, 2020 12:51
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Without this thread I'll have to start posting on twitter in #vanre, which at this point years into the discussion, has become a hallowed out shell with only the most rabidly stupid YIMBYS and demand siders which have both blocked each other, yelling into the void. Jens continues to do the maths and make neat maps. I'm sure despite this one Jen Bradshaw and other YIMBYs will, continue to bore the general public by talking about how Vancouver zoning is racist, having read too much American housing discourse and failing to mangle Vancouver's history into the same narrative. https://twitter.com/vb_jens/status/1275526162962210818?s=20 I'm sure race division via zoning was the plan was in the early 1900s, and I'm sure Harlan Bartholomew was a racist, but boy to me that appears to be an awful lot of not-white people living Vancouver's multi million dollar SFH districts. Zoning is an effective tool to divide by class, but when non-whites get wealthier this no longer works. The reality is that by the 60s-70s, SFHs in east van were widely affordable by working class asian canadians, and they bought them en masse. Later since 97, wealth from HK flooded into the west side. The Dunbar diaspora that sold their homes has settled into Grandview, east of downtown, which appears as a blue blob.
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Jun 25, 2020 16:59
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Femtosecond posted:Without this thread I'll have to start posting on twitter in #vanre, which at this point years into the discussion, has become a hallowed out shell with only the most rabidly stupid YIMBYS and demand siders which have both blocked each other, yelling into the void. I'd argue that the blue blobs (which are kind of a mixture of dark blue=white people and light blue="other") are a mixture of older people who downsized and 20/30-somethings who moved to Vancouver as adults.
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Jun 28, 2020 07:25
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Since this bubble will never ever die we've started looking for a place in Victoria. Prices have not come down at all here but there's not as many listings as last year. Things still sell within days of being listed though, the few places we wanted to even look at had accepted offers right away. Anything under a million gets snapped up within a day or two. I keep saying that they'll come down maybe this year or next due to covid and our collapsing economy, but at this point I feel like most of the world could be a smoking crater with people bartering for food and some how Victoria will still not have houses under a million and 2br condos going for high 400's. Even CMHC is saying 20-25% drop is coming but everyone says Victoria is different because it's so "naturally desirable" lol. Started reading this thread almost 10 years ago when I was thinking of getting a 2br condo for the low 200's. They're all in the 300-400s now. It's getting harder and harder to tell my wife and family that the crash is juuuust around the corner and it's foolish to buy now. Everyone here mocked the "buy now or be priced out forever" mindset but in our case it's been totally true here.
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Jun 29, 2020 20:42
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Yeah it's unfortunate but true. It's both simultaneously ridiculously overpriced and a bubble that seemingly can't burst. Our Toronto rental search isn't going great. Either it's lovely condos with a view of another condo or run down derelict houses with no yard for 3k a month. But somehow people pay it and the market refuses to go down no matter how much reality knocks on the door. I'd love for this to be a post quoted and laughed at in a few months, bit somehow I doubt it. Canadian real estate can't die because we have too much rising on it as a country.
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Jun 29, 2020 22:59
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Bubbles will always burst without fail over long enough periods of time. The market can remain irrational for longer than you can afford to wait though.
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Jun 30, 2020 00:59
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We are looking at Victoria, too. Some job opportunities over there, and we can actually buy a nice house with a basement suite. I think the wheels have a chance of coming off in September when the mortgage deferrals end. While government may want to keep everything going, they still have to borrow money from somewhere, and the bond rating agencies will likely have something to say about the choices that are made. But hey, I've been wrong about the end of irrationality before...why start in September?
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Jul 1, 2020 05:35
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But why won't the deferrals just continue? If the bank's don't want to lose money, the government can just cover some or all of the cost. There's no reason for the government or banks not to keep the house of cards standing.
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Jul 1, 2020 05:41
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qhat posted:Bubbles will always burst without fail over long enough periods of time. The market can remain irrational for longer than you can afford to wait though. Maybe it's not a bubble it's just strong fundamentals!!
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Jul 1, 2020 06:36
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Baronjutter posted:Since this bubble will never ever die we've started looking for a place in Victoria. Prices have not come down at all here but there's not as many listings as last year. Things still sell within days of being listed though, the few places we wanted to even look at had accepted offers right away. Anything under a million gets snapped up within a day or two. Thread really coming full circle in the dying days of Something Awful
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Jul 1, 2020 06:38
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sleep with the vicious posted:But why won't the deferrals just continue? If the bank's don't want to lose money, the government can just cover some or all of the cost. There's no reason for the government or banks not to keep the house of cards standing. It's possible that the deferrals could continue, but the banks need revenue, and residential mortgages are (I think) a pretty big profit centre for them. Continuing to kick the can down the road isn't in their interest if they're not getting paid anything. Eventually, they'll want to get paid. But who knows...this is so such uncharted territory that no one knows what is going to happen. Truly, anything is possible.
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Jul 1, 2020 07:24
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The biggest lesson of this thread and the last few years, and the pandemic response is that governments won't sit idly by and let a collapse of the economy and housing economy happen and will actively prop things up. So planning on buying only when a collapse happens ensures that you're waiting indefinitely.
Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Jul 1, 2020 |
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Jul 1, 2020 16:57
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Jul 1, 2020 16:59
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lmao. Hell yeah
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Jul 1, 2020 18:14
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Femtosecond posted:The biggest lesson of this thread and the last few years, and the pandemic response is that governments won't sit idly by and let a collapse of the economy and housing economy happen and will actively prop things up. So planning on buying only when a collapse happens ensures that you're waiting indefinitely. It's the form of "investment" for us plebes blessed by decades of federal governments across multiple different parties. I don't really blame anyone for saying "gently caress it" and jumping in, it makes total sense given the environment.
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Jul 1, 2020 18:18
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Mandibular Fiasco posted:We are looking at Victoria, too. Some job opportunities over there, and we can actually buy a nice house with a basement suite. A nice house with a basement suite starts around a million here. We have a fairly lovely house with one here and it's assessed at 900k. I guess that's affordable compared to... Vancouver?
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Jul 1, 2020 19:06
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Literally baronjutter on the left coming into this thread when it started asking for arguments to use against his family who were pressuring him to buy a 300k condo 
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Jul 1, 2020 19:08
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Literally me and my roommate right now. This is devastating.
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Jul 1, 2020 21:25
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large hands posted:A nice house with a basement suite starts around a million here. We have a fairly lovely house with one here and it's assessed at 900k. I guess that's affordable compared to... Vancouver?
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Jul 2, 2020 01:09
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Victoria def cheaper. Here's a random small house less than a 15 minute bike ride from the legislature, $800k. Something like this would be like $1.3 to 1.6M in East Vancouver. Way the hell more on the west side. https://www.rew.ca/properties/2691473/1336-grant-street-victoria-bc?property_click=map Femtosecond fucked around with this message at 01:20 on Jul 2, 2020 |
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Jul 2, 2020 01:17
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Femtosecond posted:Victoria def cheaper. Here's a random small house less than a 15 minute bike ride from the legislature, $800k. Something like this would be like $1.3 to 1.6M in East Vancouver. Way the hell more on the west side. Haha I know that house, it's cute and a good neighborhood but very tiny
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Jul 2, 2020 04:01
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sleep with the vicious posted:But why won't the deferrals just continue? If the bank's don't want to lose money, the government can just cover some or all of the cost. There's no reason for the government or banks not to keep the house of cards standing. Quoting myself for this tweet https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/1278082987645526017 Something has to give eventually. But it probably won't lol
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Jul 2, 2020 04:11
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sleep with the vicious posted:Something has to give eventually It'll be the government
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Jul 2, 2020 05:48
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Yes, it's like a lava lamp.
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What effect would hanging the lenders out to dry on their interest payments for this period have on things? You invested in mortgages in an especially bad year for it, too bad, you get 0% ROI for 2020.
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Jul 2, 2020 06:04
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Baronjutter posted:Since this bubble will never ever die we've started looking for a place in Victoria. Prices have not come down at all here but there's not as many listings as last year. Things still sell within days of being listed though, the few places we wanted to even look at had accepted offers right away. Anything under a million gets snapped up within a day or two. Don't make me do it again
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Jul 2, 2020 09:30
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I think we’ve already given Baronjutter enough financial advice for a life time. BJ follow your heart and become the housing chad you were always meant to be!
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Jul 2, 2020 15:46
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lol I wanted to get that Grant St. house posted above but it got snapped up fast. Condos are languishing on the market, no one wants them. Townhouses too, specially if they have some weird seniors only or "adult oriented" rules. Houses over 2 million are also sitting and taking losses. But any house between 700-1,000k goes within a day or two. I think there's a pent up demand from all the idiot non-buyer "savers" like me.
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Jul 2, 2020 17:03
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Always do the opposite of what the thread says. So, if the thread is saying "gently caress it, gently caress everyone, gently caress this irrational housing market, gently caress it all, just buy YOLO", then you should stay put.
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Jul 2, 2020 20:13
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sitchensis posted:Always do the opposite of what the thread says. I'm gonna do the opposite of this post!
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Jul 2, 2020 21:08
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My sister in law makes a good salary as a physiotherapist at the hospital. She's been looking for houses in YEG in the $300-$350 range. I think the irrationality is finally wearing on me because I'm tempted to tell her to YOLO and buy a house in Glenora for half a mil.
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Jul 4, 2020 02:18
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This is the way the housing bubble ends. This is the way the housing bubble ends. This is the way the housing bubble ends. Not with a *pop* but for $90,000 over asking.
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Jul 4, 2020 03:01
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Albino Squirrel posted:My sister in law makes a good salary as a physiotherapist at the hospital. She's been looking for houses in YEG in the $300-$350 range. I think the irrationality is finally wearing on me because I'm tempted to tell her to YOLO and buy a house in Glenora for half a mil. Illustrates how insane prices are in Vancouver and Toronto compared to the rest of Canada.
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Jul 4, 2020 21:50
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https://twitter.com/xelan_gta/status/1281427280959602689?s=21
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Jul 10, 2020 06:22
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I've been saving for years and I still can't afford a loving house in victoria. Thought that this pandemic might lead to a dip but house prices have actually gone UP. Jesus christ. Everyone I know who has a house bought it with help from their parents, if you don't have that family money you are screwed. In Ottawa for 3 months and looking at houses in Hull. 10 minute bike ride away from downtown Ottawa, 250k- 300k, 3 bedrooms with a basement apartment. My friend bought one and lives in the top half and pays her mortgage just from renting out the bottom. I'm tempted to try to buy one and then rent out the whole thing as an investment, it's gotta give better returns than my savings account which is *checks notes* 0.15% Guy I used to work with bought a house in Duncan and it went up 200k in 3 years. HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE Alctel fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Jul 10, 2020 |
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Jul 10, 2020 18:03
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Alctel posted:I've been saving for years and I still can't afford a loving house in victoria. Thought that this pandemic might lead to a dip but house prices have actually gone UP. Jesus christ. Everyone I know who has a house bought it with help from their parents, if you don't have that family money you are screwed. Flight from Vancouver. The entire Island coast from Nanaimo down to Sooke has gotten absolutely JACKED up from all the boomers and olds selling their places at stupid insane prices, moving to the island and having a couple hundred thousand left over. My partner and I are currently planning to move to Vic from Van and have been watching house prices for a while, they're wild. Vic proper is basically a write off? Seems like only colwood and beyond is "viable" and that's with family help and decent paying jobs.
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Jul 10, 2020 18:12
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Claes Oldenburger posted:Flight from Vancouver. The entire Island coast from Nanaimo down to Sooke has gotten absolutely JACKED up from all the boomers and olds selling their places at stupid insane prices, moving to the island and having a couple hundred thousand left over. That makes sense. At least the rental market there got significantly better last time I checked (plus the joy of reading about multi-house owning boomers whining about the vacancy tax every week in the paper). I'm probably just going to live on my sailboat again when I move back but it would have been nice to have owned something Alctel fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Jul 10, 2020 |
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Jul 10, 2020 18:17
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Alctel posted:That makes sense. At least the rental market there got significantly better last time I checked (plus the joy of reading about multi-house owning boomers whining about the vacancy tax every week in the paper). Yeah, this makes me feel kinda lovely but we're hoping the lack of UVic/Camosun is going to sink rental prices right when we move over. Gotta take the positives when you can!
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Jul 10, 2020 18:28
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My partner and I are about to buy in Cowichan. It's considerably less insane here because no one wants to pay the high property taxes. Prices have even gone down a tiny bit. Still loving ridiculous though. I can't wrap my head around a new home costing $35000 in the eighties compared to $450000 now, for the same home, with no updates or improvements.
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Jul 10, 2020 18:33
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Claes Oldenburger posted:Yeah, this makes me feel kinda lovely but we're hoping the lack of UVic/Camosun is going to sink rental prices right when we move over. Gotta take the positives when you can! AirBNB tanking really helped too, lots of fully furnished places suddenly appearing on the rental market overnight funnily enough!
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Jul 10, 2020 18:48
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I was watching the Big Short last night and I really felt the despondency of the characters when subprime mortgage defaults went up, but the cost of the investment vehicles within they were packaged increased in price. Every loving economic fundamental of the west coast couldn't support the kind of eye watering housing prices seen before COVID-19. And yet prices have STILL climbed even during the worst public health emergency since the Spanish Flu? The mind truly loving boggles.
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Jul 10, 2020 19:07
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